Archive for November 29th, 2009

Transmissibility and lethality.

November 29, 2009

GENTLENESS MAKES FOR CONTAGION, FACILITATING HOLOCAUSTS.

In a nutshell: There is, in epidemiology, a complementarity principle between transmissibility and lethality. It explains the change of lethality of the Black Plague and the present flu epidemics. One can extend this observation of complementarity to systems of thought, and deduce from it the necessity of vaccinating against some religions and some forms of corruption.

***

COMPLEMENTARITY PRINCIPLE IN EPIDEMIOLOGY:

In 1348 CE, the "Black Plague" swept Europe, killing between 40% and 60% of the population. It was long considered to be the bubonic plague caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis. But there are many problems with this interpretation, and the known facts fit better some sort of viral hemorrhagic fever.

Some diseases are known in Africa, such as Ebola, an hemorrhagic virus, which are hard to transmit: infected people show symptoms before they can infect the next potential victims. Whereas, after infection, the Black Plague killed in 4 to 8 days, and was highly contagious during its silent phase (mysteriously it showed up under 3 different forms).

In general, there is a balance between transmissibility and lethality: an agent that is highly lethal will be hard to transmit, so little prone to a pandemic.

Conversely, the new "Porcine" flu, A H1N1, has been extremely contagious, and not very dangerous… So far. (Although, because of the nature of the surface of the virus, it attacks deeper in the lungs than the usual flu.)

Such an infectious agent as AH1N1, which is easy to get, and not too dangerous, can afford to become much more deadly. More exactly, if a more deadly mutation occurs to such an agent, there is a high probability that the agent will stay as contagious, or nearly as contagious as before (contagion depending most probably upon dozens of other genetic surface characteristics of the agent). That was the clear danger with AH1N1, and with any agent that is rather innocuous, and highly contagious, while not far removed from very deadly forms.

The extremely deadly pandemics of Hong Kong flu in the 1950s and the so called Spanish flu of 1918 (which killed 40 millions) were apparently H1N1 (with supplementary mutations, relative to the present form). Unfortunately, the health authorities did not explain this clearly. Such a mutation, D222G, has appeared, and it killed at least one otherwise perfectly healthy 26 year old French male, in a few hours.

So let’s say to make the reasoning computable, that the Black Plague killed 50% of Europe, and that 50% of the survivors caught the disease. Those survivors were immunized (whatever the disease was). The remaining 25% had never come into contact with the disease (to prevent contagion, travel was forbidden, and many cities and villages had no cases of the "Black Plague"). Hence, in the future, the density of the population that the infectious agent could spread into was just a fourth of what it was previously. Hence, one can suppose the agent could propagate if, and only, if each human carrier could survive four times longer. By then, there was a much higher probability that the immune system of the carrier had kicked in gear, and the human carrier would survive.

Hence the Black Plague agent could survive if and only if it mutated into a form that was more than four times less lethal (using simplistic math). And this is what was observed. Thus a milder form of the Plague affected Europe for centuries, with waves of epidemics, but never again as viciously as the one of 1348. As the centuries passed, and population rebounded, the infectious agent could become more lethal again (hence the more ferocious plague that made the young Newton flee to the family farm, around 1660, to contemplate falling apples, while watching the moon in the distance).

***

COMPLEMENTARITY PRINCIPLE IN MORAL SYSTEMS:

So much for biology. An interest of new science is that it provides new models that can be used far from their original realm (Einstein, by the way, was an expert at doing this within physics, and that means that many concepts that he considered fully demonstrated were not so, they were just analogies; but analogies are main tools of philosophy). This is actually one of the main ways of creating new philosophy: by grabbing scientific models, and applying them elsewhere.

So is there a moral philosophy to be extracted from this biological phenomenon of complementarity, as above? Well, there is. If a system of thought is highly contagious, and seems rather innocuous while related to extremely deadly forms, it could also mutate in a very deadly way, while staying highly contagious.

This is what happened with Nazism. There had been, for centuries, deadly, but not that deadly "anti-Semitism" (mostly meaning anti-Judaism), in Europe, and especially Germany. The old deadly Christian anti-Judaism had been rekindled by Luther. It looked innocuous enough to those who were not intellectually rigorous, so it was highly contagious (in other words, German intellectuals and artists did not fight it as much as they should have). people would say Christianism was about love, so if the impotent Luther raged about Jews, it got to be right somehow, but it did not matter, because Luther had no divisions. Well, Hitler had hundreds of divisions, and the poison reinforced by Luther was in all the mind, including that of Hitler (who, it is true also admired Islam, another religion which hates the Jews, to an amazingly grotesque extent).

Then this latent German racism mutated in Africa: in Namibia, Goering, father of Goering, governor of Namibia, organized a holocaust of the "racially inferior natives" (if the Jews were inferior, why not the African bushmen?). So global racism came out as a strong deadly, but localized, racial theory, and most Germans came to accept it (because the virus of conformism to peer pressure and discipline had long been spread by the Prussian army, and the schools subservient to it). Racism was then applied to the French and their African troops, and the long despised and hated "Slaves" ("Slavs") to the East. This global racism became white hot as the German empire lost World War One. From rage (a further mutation).

Of course Muslim fundamentalism is a case in point too: on the surface it’s innocuous, and thus highly contagious. Even Obama promoted it in Cairo (as all presidents of the USA have done since Roosevelt in 1945). Supposedly that is one of the reason why he received the Nobel Prize. Why would one want to vaccinate against Muslim fundamentalism? Simply because it is closely related to extremely lethal religions.

Indeed Islam was obtained by a succession of mutations from Judaism and Christianism. Judaism and Christianism have killed millions. Indeed fanatical Judaism brought the destruction of a semi independent Judea under Rome, causing a war that killed a million around 70 CE, and was both a civil war among Jews, plus a war against Rome. Christianism, a religion imposed by the fascist, particularly bloody and homicidal emperor Constantine, is, of course, probably the most lethal religion that ever was. It even single handedly caused the Dark Ages, by burning all libraries, making a self described "war against the philosophers", killing intellectuals, all heretics (purified by fire, as Christ recommended), killing many Jews, closing schools, forcing all free thinkers out of the empire, etc…

So one wants to vaccinate against highly infectious agents that look innocuous enough. Unregulated Wall Street is a recent example. For nearly a century, the exactions of Wall Street (behind Hitler) and U.S. Big Oil (also behind Hitler; for example, Texaco is how Hitler’s Franco puppet conquered Spain) profited the general American population, and thus were viewed with benign neglect. Wall Street was deadly to Europeans, profitable to Americans (for example, Wall Street created IG Farben, which created Zyklon B, the gas that killed millions of European civilians, from racial hatred). But Europe has survived, become somewhat immune to Wall Street, and now Wall Street is reduced to blatant maneuvering, front and center (instead of hiding behind Hitler and Stalin; yes, some Wall Street titans got decorated by both devils).

***

Thus what is gentle enough to be highly contagious, if related to deadly form, should be vaccinated against when there is still time. History and biology concur.

PA

https://patriceayme.wordpress.com/


SoundEagle 🦅ೋღஜஇ

Where The Eagles Fly . . . . Art Science Poetry Music & Ideas

Artificial Turf At French Bilingual School Berkeley

Artificial Turf At French Bilingual School Berkeley

Patterns of Meaning

Exploring the patterns of meaning that shape our world

Sean Carroll

in truth, only atoms and the void

West Hunter

Omnes vulnerant, ultima necat

GrrrGraphics on WordPress

www.grrrgraphics.com

Skulls in the Stars

The intersection of physics, optics, history and pulp fiction

Footnotes to Plato

because all (Western) philosophy consists of a series of footnotes to Plato

Patrice Ayme's Thoughts

Striving For Ever Better Thinking. Humanism Is Intelligence Unleashed. From Intelligence All Ways, Instincts & Values Flow, Even Happiness. History and Science Teach Us Not Just Humility, But Power, Smarts, And The Ways We Should Embrace. Naturam Primum Cognoscere Rerum

Learning from Dogs

Dogs are animals of integrity. We have much to learn from them.

ianmillerblog

Smile! You’re at the best WordPress.com site ever

Defense Issues

Military and general security

RobertLovesPi.net

Polyhedra, tessellations, and more.

How to Be a Stoic

an evolving guide to practical Stoicism for the 21st century

Donna Swarthout

Writer, Editor, Berliner

coelsblog

Defending Scientism

SoundEagle 🦅ೋღஜஇ

Where The Eagles Fly . . . . Art Science Poetry Music & Ideas

Artificial Turf At French Bilingual School Berkeley

Artificial Turf At French Bilingual School Berkeley

Patterns of Meaning

Exploring the patterns of meaning that shape our world

Sean Carroll

in truth, only atoms and the void

West Hunter

Omnes vulnerant, ultima necat

GrrrGraphics on WordPress

www.grrrgraphics.com

Skulls in the Stars

The intersection of physics, optics, history and pulp fiction

Footnotes to Plato

because all (Western) philosophy consists of a series of footnotes to Plato

Patrice Ayme's Thoughts

Striving For Ever Better Thinking. Humanism Is Intelligence Unleashed. From Intelligence All Ways, Instincts & Values Flow, Even Happiness. History and Science Teach Us Not Just Humility, But Power, Smarts, And The Ways We Should Embrace. Naturam Primum Cognoscere Rerum

Learning from Dogs

Dogs are animals of integrity. We have much to learn from them.

ianmillerblog

Smile! You’re at the best WordPress.com site ever

Defense Issues

Military and general security

RobertLovesPi.net

Polyhedra, tessellations, and more.

How to Be a Stoic

an evolving guide to practical Stoicism for the 21st century

Donna Swarthout

Writer, Editor, Berliner

coelsblog

Defending Scientism

SoundEagle 🦅ೋღஜஇ

Where The Eagles Fly . . . . Art Science Poetry Music & Ideas

Artificial Turf At French Bilingual School Berkeley

Artificial Turf At French Bilingual School Berkeley

Patterns of Meaning

Exploring the patterns of meaning that shape our world

Sean Carroll

in truth, only atoms and the void

West Hunter

Omnes vulnerant, ultima necat

GrrrGraphics on WordPress

www.grrrgraphics.com

Skulls in the Stars

The intersection of physics, optics, history and pulp fiction

Footnotes to Plato

because all (Western) philosophy consists of a series of footnotes to Plato

Patrice Ayme's Thoughts

Striving For Ever Better Thinking. Humanism Is Intelligence Unleashed. From Intelligence All Ways, Instincts & Values Flow, Even Happiness. History and Science Teach Us Not Just Humility, But Power, Smarts, And The Ways We Should Embrace. Naturam Primum Cognoscere Rerum

Learning from Dogs

Dogs are animals of integrity. We have much to learn from them.

ianmillerblog

Smile! You’re at the best WordPress.com site ever

Defense Issues

Military and general security

RobertLovesPi.net

Polyhedra, tessellations, and more.

How to Be a Stoic

an evolving guide to practical Stoicism for the 21st century

Donna Swarthout

Writer, Editor, Berliner

coelsblog

Defending Scientism