2014 Warmest: Antarctica Surprise Melt Coming

I will come back tomorrow, with more details, on the connection between murderous superstition and the plutocracy that has long fostered it.

I will come back on the fact that somebody like Obama is so ignorant of the law (!), that he does not even (seem to) know that one cannot “slander” someone dead (as he pretended one can… At the United Nations, when he equated not respecting a “prophet” with the murder of tens of millions). I will come back on the fact that “legal” tax cheating by the hyper rich, the plutocrats, has left all PUBLIC educational systems in disarray, and states weak. And thus this return to barbarity is pushing young people straight back to Medieval unreason (Rushdie).

Right now, let’s take a break. With climate “change”, for comic relief. Here is another product of our great leaders, and their wealthy sponsors:

Since 1850, the Rise of Temperature Is More Than One Degree Celsius.

Since 1850, the Rise of Temperature Is More Than One Degree Celsius.

The Japanese government announced that 2014 was the warmest year on record for the Surface of the Earth. It is all the more remarkable considering that 2014 was NOT an El Nino year.

What could go wrong?

This brings the Earth global temperature roughly from less than 14 Celsius to 14.7 Celsius (the latter being the average over 2014).

For comparison, at the maximum of massive glaciations, say 22,000 years ago, when a mile high glacier stood above New York City, and a solid shelf of ice extended East, all the way to France, the temperature over the North Atlantic was just five degree Celsius lower… And sea level more than 100 meters below.

What’s the future? An enormous acceleration, surprising all, just as with the repression of Freedom of Expression, and the resurgence of Middle Age murderous religious madness and superstition (encouraged by policy at the highest level).

Acceleration proportional to itself, is the definition of the exponential, a function ubiquitous in nature.

Two exponentiating accelerations will reveal themselves with the climate.

One is well known: it is the massive release of methane hydrates, a form of methane ice found in quantities that may dwarf all the other hydrocarbons put together. Methane, CH4, has a greenhouse capability tens of time greater than CO2. It has already started, complete with huge explosions, it’s not science-fiction on another planet.

The other coming surprise is fast melting of West Antarctica. West Antarctica is basically under water. Or more exactly, the bottom of its glaciers scrap the rock below the waterline.

When warm water slips below the ice, between ice and rock, those giant glaciers may melt in a few years (and not in the few centuries presently predicted by common scientific wisdom). Now how did the glaciations start, three million years ago? With the massive glaciation of Antarctica. This, it is surmised, arose from the ACC, the Antarctica Circumpolar Current (which happened after some obstructing volcano chain across the ocean got eroded away).

Conversely, if half Antarctica melts, the albedo of the planet will diminish considerably, accelerating the warming, with an exponential contribution.

To boot, a similar threat, enormous glaciers resting on rock below sea level, exists over a vast part of East Antarctica:

https://patriceayme.wordpress.com/2009/05/31/sun-cooling-ice-melting/

During El Nino, warm water buried in the Pacific Ocean churn, slosh and erupts at the surface of the Eastern Pacific. This warms the surface. The last spectacular El Nino was in 1998, and it caused a spectacular jump in surface temperatures.

(Thereafter those who wanted to deny a rise in surface temperatures used the 1998 peak as a starting point.)

For the first time in history, temperatures in Anchorage, Alaska, did not drop below zero Fahrenheit once in an entire calendar year. In comparison, Alaska’s largest city had 14 days below zero in 2013, and 32 days in 2012. The average is 29 days. Here it is, graphically:

Most of Heating Happens At The Poles, Bringing a Swift Rise in Sea Level.

Most of Heating Happens At The Poles, Bringing a Swift Rise in Sea Level.

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-baked-alaska-20150103-story.html

In the coldest areas, in the sea or land, where methane hydrates are deposited, evidence is growing of massive eruption.

Even if coal fired power plants worldwide were converted to carbon negative plants (not that this is feasible, even in theory) a catastrophe is unfolding. A pulse of heat is working its way down into the oceans, and in the ground, especially in the Polar regions. That pulse will cause methane to erupt on most or all of the continental shelf methane hydrate deposits, worldwide.

Most of this first eruption of methane will not add directly to global warming (except in shallow Arctic seas, where the CH4 reaches the surface before recombination, and the effect is already apparent). Instead it will add to ocean acidification. After the ability of deep oceans to oxidize the methane is exhausted, methane will vent into the atmosphere. It’s coming, according to the modeling from the IMPACTS consortium of national labs. (The IMPACTS program was quietly de-funded at the end of 2013: our great leaders don’t want the truth to come out.)

Methane eruption is an example of Non-Linear effect E: the more the effect E, the faster E grows (that’s called an Exponential).

Non-Linear effects are all over the infernal climate machinery we have set in motion. For example, the more the ice and snows of the Arctic melt, the darker the Arctic gets, and the more Solar radiation it absorbs.

NASA satellites observed a marked increase in solar radiation absorption in the Arctic since 2000.

http://climate.nasa.gov/news/2208/

An enormous acceleration, just as with the repression of Freedom of Expression. Charlie Hebdo and its many ancestors and its many predecessors operated without assassinations for two centuries. But now, for 15 years top cartoonists, journalists and writers in France have been under police protection… When they were not fired outright for criticizing some forms of Islamism.

The times, they are changing. For the best in many ways. However, also for the worst. We have a small planet, perhaps the only one with a civilization (although obviously many harbor some form of life). It is a spaceship. Our immense material powers may well destroy it, in short order.

Lest we exert great discernment. Now. This requires probably changing our inappropriate leadership system, which rest on the brains, of a few individuals, easily bought, or selected by a pernicious elite (the built-up of CO2 was easy to avoid, if a different ethical and political system had been in the lead).

Patrice Ayme’

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11 Responses to “2014 Warmest: Antarctica Surprise Melt Coming”

  1. ianmillerblog Says:

    Unfortunately, the problem is paged by positive feedback. Each change liberates an accelerating factor, and that will continue until such factors run out of steam, or we try and get smart, which is unlikely in the near future, bearing in mind the intellectual quality of our politicians.

    • Patrice Ayme Says:

      Yes, it’s going to be dramatic: along some coasts, sea level is already going up 9mm/year. One of the first victim ought to be the East Coast of the USA, as soon as the Gulf Stream starts to back up…

      Our uneducated politicians have no idea about exponentiation. Or positive feedback. See Obama accusing people to have slandered a dead person. Maybe he should have studied law… Wait… I forgot he got in Harvard because his dad was CIA/Harvard…

  2. pendantry Says:

    Thank you for the excuse to repeat one of my favourite quotations:

    “The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.” — Professor Albert Bartlett

    • Patrice Ayme Says:

      Indeed. There are also basically two types of functions which offer themselves readily in nature: the linear one, and the exponential.

      The quadratic function is more subtle, as demonstrated by the fact Newton confused momentum with energy. After his death, Emilie du Châtelet demonstrated that Energy was distinct, and went according to vv = v^2. Basically the momentum impacts, mv are proportional, in their occurrence to v itself, hence the mvv factor. (The 1/2 comes from integrating those effects, looking more carefully at the graph, it’s standard calculus.)

      … Come to think of it, when did the exponential, which depicts bacterial reproduction, let alone propaganda feeding on itself, appear? In math? I don’t seem to know…

      • pendantry Says:

        According to wikipedia the word “exponent” was coined in 1544 by Michael Stifel. Is that what you were asking?

        • Patrice Ayme Says:

          Thanks, Pendantry! Yes, I was asking for something like that. Wikipedia says:

          “Exponentiation may be generalized from integer exponents to more general types of numbers.
          The word “exponent” was coined in 1544 by Michael Stifel.[1]
          The modern notation for exponentiation was introduced by René Descartes in his Géométrie of 1637.[2][3]”

          It turns out that it is Oresmes (bishop and student of the incredible BURIDANUS) who considered exponents with fractions, in “De Proportionibus” in 1360 CE. The Oxford computation school was soon established…

          • pendantry Says:

            I lack the room in my head to remember too much of such history. Also, I’ve no doubt at all that there were other unsung heroes & heroines in other parts of the world whose contributions to our current knowledge go unfairly unremarked in our ‘civilisation’, due to misplaced tribal pride. (For instance, ask a USAn who invented the computer: I very much doubt the answer will mention Tommy Flowers… and neither they nor the average Brit are likely to ever have heard of Konrad Zuse! Going back much further, there’s the Antikythera Mechanism — and nobody has the first clue who designed and built that.)

            • Patrice Ayme Says:

              The Antikythera Mechanism http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antikythera_mechanism was a computer, a mechanical computer. There had been mention of such machines in Cicero, but nobody believed him later. It was on a ship, and there were apparently many of them.

              Superior Roman cement is studied to this day in serious places such as the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. The hope is to be able to duplicate it. It’s superior in strength, light, energy saving, CO2 saving, water resistance… In places, such as the Pantheon, it’s intact 2,000 years later, an astounding performance.

              BTW, Greek mathematics was much more advanced than what’s found in Euclid. The zero seems to have been invented, and the businessmen were using a number system most of the way to full Indian numerals. That system was sent to India. India and China contributed much. So did even Peruvians and Bolivians, who contributed the potato, which allowed to conquer Siberia.

  3. robert sinclair Says:

    I’ve finally figured it out. (how to respond) So thankyou for your response some time ago, I am sorry that I haven’t replied in this format sooner (i did send an email) .
    I read your column daily and I have learned from it. However the Ukraine was never invaded by putin. There was a US organised coop.
    The US is taking the world to a similar but different event that happened in 1790’s France. The real clue is the flow of money (not currency. and its price suppression) Isis, islam etc is just a distraction to keep the people fearful so they can take away more of our rights.

    • Patrice Ayme Says:

      Well, apparently most Ukrainians differ with you. President Petroshenko is coming to Paris tomorrow, to defend Freedom of Expression. Putin officially annexed a part of Ukraine (Crimea). First annexation in Europe since Hitler (there were so minor annexations authorized by the United Nations). Even Stalin did not dare (Kaliningrad was authorized).

      That the “USA is taking over the world” is a myth most Americans clearly are not partaking in. The average American is going down now, although she/he works very hard, and the GDP is forging ahead nearly at the same rate as China.

      I don’t know how France took over the world in the 1790s. Initially, for several years, France, even still a constitutional MONARCHY and then as a republic was UNDER ATTACK. Napoleon went from Captain to general because of his smarts and heroics at TOULON. Part of Provence was occupied by the British Army and Navy. They were trying to attack from the south while the Prussians, Russians, and Austrians were coming from north and east.

      The PLUTOCRATIC, USA centered, take-over is indisputable, and it is even behind ISLAMISM. I will have an essay on this within a day or two.

      But it is important to know the exact mechanism, individuals and SYSTEMS of THOUGHT involved.

      Putin is one of the world’s top plutocrats. He and his daughter have properties in Saint Tropez, where my mom lives, and he was there even recently. He has, personally, 40 billion dollars stashed in Switzerland alone.

      Thanks for reading me daily, and I look forward to your critical input.
      PA

  4. Patrice Ayme Says:

    The Sun has been very quiet for several decades, and getting quieter. This has happened before (say four centuries ago). It has an important cooling effect. However that relief could be inverted any time.

    Then, of course, we are flirting with major tipping points. One is the massive emission of methane, from frozen hydrates. The other would be the quick melting of West Antarctica.

    The quick melting of Antarctica, once started will be inexorable. It will happen from warm water seeping below; the fact water is getting cooler superficially in Antarctica actually, and paradoxically, proves that point… Surprises ahead!

    The kinks in the jet stream, and the acceleration of trade winds (which counteracts El Nino) are directly tied to the augmented energy in the atmosphere: they are just different expression of said energy.

    So Arctic air sloshes around, going down here and there, and California suffers a drought.
    https://patriceayme.wordpress.com/2009/05/31/sun-cooling-ice-melting/

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