Don’t Feed the Bear: All Putin Needs Is Comfy War

YOU WANT PEACE? MAKE WAR COSTLY

The French and German leaders are meeting again with Putin to make him recover reason: it reminds me of Munich, 1938, when the French and British leaders were trying to make Hitler reasonable.

France and Germany together have a slightly larger population than Russia, but three and a half time the GDP. (By the way, what happened to Britain? Well London is full of Russian plutocrats and banking institutions keen to make Assad and Putin possible; hence the British discretion.)

An Ukrainian in the street interviewed by German TV said it was out of the question to give territory to Putin: if one gives him a finger, he will take the entire arm.

Putin Wants "The Big Country" Back, & Its Prospect of Endless War

Putin Wants “The Big Country” Back, & Its Prospect of Endless War

In the West, cowardly pacifists say: do not provoke Putin, do as he says, he has nukes and will attack, if lethal defensive weapons are sent to Ukraine. That makes them collaborators of evil.

This is rather curious that pacifists use a fundamentally bellicose argument: don’t try to stop the mad man, he may get offended, and kill everybody.

Indeed, a mad man’s madness with criminal insanity overtones, makes the case for the greatest severity. So the essence of the pacifist whining call for the greatest severity to be applied on Putin, right away.

Because what are pacifists saying? Putin is the most dangerous Leader, ever. So let’s be nice to him.

It is now known that, had the USA and Britain be as firm as France against Hitler in the 1930s, Hitler’s own generals would have made a coup against him.

But, instead, Britain and the USA made concession after concession to Hitler. So Hitler flew from success to success, undermining any mood critical of him. How can one criticize a winner? Clearly, it was unpatriotic. It made the top German generals and marshals who thought that the dictator was completely crazy, and a danger to Germany look like traitors.

Something similar is developing with Putin. As he occupied and annexed territory in Georgia, Moldavia, and now Ukraine, and the West proved incapable to stop him, he looks ever more like a winner. Putin’s avowed goal is to bring back what he calls the “New Russia” (half of Ukraine) and the “Big Country” (the USSR). Pacifists say that the fundamental strategic interest of Russia is at play, so . di, Putin flies from success to success.

So where does Putin stop? This is what pacifists have to know, if they do not want to be simple collaborators of evil.

But of course, they don’t know.

Should we then keep our fingers cross, and hope for the best?

Why?

Because Putin killed only 100,000 in Chechnya? Because Catherine the Great stopped 80 kilometers from Berlin? Not a safe bet: Catherine did not have nukes.

Behaving now as nothing will stop Putin, but for the application of overwhelming force is not safe, but it is the safest strategy. If Putin is completely crazy, overwhelming force won’t stop him. But nothing will anyway, especially after he has fully armed himself, as he is presently doing, Hitler-like.

If Putin is not completely crazy, the threat of overwhelming force will stop him.

Not trying to stop him, if he is not completely crazy, will certainly make Putin completely crazy. Be it completely crazy with greed.

As I tried to explain, Putin, like Hitler before him, and Napoleon, and many (not all) conquerors before him, has discovered that war unites the People behind him, and make all the People think as one, and the name of that one, is Putin. This is what I call the fascist instinct. It is crucial to enable a (relatively) weak primate, far from any tree, to conquer the Savannah and Steppe, heretofore ruled by formidable predators.

Putin’s rule has been a disaster. Thus he needs to activate the fascist instinct in the Russian People. Thus he needs war.

Thus, if pacifists give him Ukraine, Putin will be deeply unhappy: he did not want Ukraine. He wanted war. War gives him fascism, thus the ability to rule. In this light, the reign of Louis XIV of France can be better understood.

After millions of Protestants had left France, and France has lost considerable territory in continuous wars, Louis XIV of France, the self-described “Sun-King” (“Roi-Soleil”) feebly bleated that his advisers had poorly advised him about Protestants: it had not been a good idea to have harassed, despoiled, and submit them to “Dragonades” (occupation of Protestant households by elite troops called “Dragons”).

However, Louis XIV, a dedicated fascist, hater of the “Republic”, lied (as fascists are wont to). Louis XIV had continual wars, and particularly against innocent civilians, because he needed continual wars, because that justified his fascist, personal rule.

Louis XIV was not afraid of war, he was afraid of peace, because peace meant the Parliament may want to re-establish the Republic again (which is what the “Fronde” was all about).

Napoleon faithfully executed the same scheme (because De Sade, one of the Revolution’s principals, had criticized the aggressive, expansionist war making, Napoleon put him in a mental asylum).

The same exact mechanism caused the First World War, with the Kaiser playing the role of Louis XIV. The Jews played the role of the Protestants under Louis XIV.

Soon Stalin would institute continual internal war, to justify the dictatorship of the Politburo which he headed. Hitler repeated the method.

So are we condemned to repeat history? Not so, if we learn how it works.

Putin got his 85% approval rating, from his activation of the fascist instinct.

However, the very latest polls show that the Russian People is getting wary of Putin’s protest of innocence about the war: 70 percent stated that Russia was assisting the breakaway rebels of Donetsk and Luhansk. Good. However, the same polling show that now most Russians think that establishing “Novorossia” (“New Russia”) is a good idea.

In other words, Russians are turning t the Dark Side: they know their dictator is making war in a foreign nation, but they are starting to approve the invasion of that nation, and its annexation.

Why?

Same story as what happened in the German collective psyche after Hitler annexed the Republic of Austria. Then the Germans became favorable to other annexations (Czechoslovakia, some Baltic states, much of Poland, etc.) Because Hitler had proven to be a winner.

As far as the Russians are concerned, Putin is a winner, so he has got to be right. Not right on the facts, but morally right: Ukraine, like Georgia or Moldova, is Russian property.

Want to turn Putin into a loser? Do it on the battlefield. And do like him: play dirty, send efficient weapons stealthily first.

Patrice

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30 Responses to “Don’t Feed the Bear: All Putin Needs Is Comfy War”

  1. Patrice Ayme Says:

    [Sent to LfD, Feb 11.]

    200 USA companies make more than 100 billion dollars of tax evasion for their European profits, each year, through Luxembourg alone.
    The effort was headed by the well named J-C Juncker (Junker?), present head of the EC.

    Not to say David Cameron is not even worse… He is, as his absence in trying to reason malignant, invasive, plutocrat Putin clearly demonstrates…

    Why? Because London “Conservatives” make beaucoup bucks from Assad, Putin, and the like…

    • Paul Handover Says:

      Patrice, thanks for stopping by and leaving your response. All that may be hoped for is that public awareness, which appears to be growing, in no small measure I don’t doubt from your own essays, translates into political awareness. I am quietly confident that it will.
      Paul Handover

      • Patrice Ayme Says:

        February 11, 2015 at 16:43

        Reply

        Hi Paul. Thanks for the answer. You made me laugh! “I don’t doubt from your own essays”. ha ha ha. I had an exclusive access to the president, and a torrent, a tsunami, an ocean to feed him with, and it proved nothing versus the powers that be! Got me very depressed for a few years.

        Now, though, I have come to realize that fighting for what is right and against what is evil is all the heavens we can aspire to… 😉

  2. ianmillerblog Says:

    Dear Patrice,

    You write: “If Putin is not completely crazy, the threat of overwhelming force will stop him.”

    Two questions: why will it, and from whence comes this overwhelming force? To what level are you prepared to go? Russia is not anything like the military walk-over that Iraq was, and yet Iraq was a total failure. The West simply has insufficient troops to conquer Russia and maintain the conquest, and it most certainly has not got the stomach for a long war with plenty of body bags. In one of my novels I had a General give advice: “You should not start a war until you have some idea how to finish it.” So, let’s hear how you would see it finished [probably need another post 🙂 ]

    Next question: what does Russia do if it does not support the Eastern Ukrainians? What happens next? The problem, as I see it, is the shouting from the West has put Putin into a corner with no alternative but to fight. Not the best of strategies, unless you are absolutely sure of winning. But America has little intention of sending at least 300 000 men to Ukraine and leave them there for a decade. Anything less, and Russia can easily match them.

    I did another post on Ukraine. My option is to have the West get Putin to agree that an international force hold a corruption-free election there, district by district, to see what the Ukrainians want. That is what I feel would be more useful.

    • Patrice Ayme Says:

      The problem is not conquering Russia, a dictatorship of mentally challenged, frozen wastes dwelling lemmings. The problem is to save Ukraine, a republic and representative democracy. The problem is NOT to repeat what happened with the Spanish Republic in 1936 (still not a completely resolved problem, as a ridiculous descendant of Louis XIV is now hereditary dictator there).

      “Overwhelming force” is relative: I do not advocate to attack the alpha-centaurians. Putin’s fascist legions are weak. Now. He will be stronger, Hitler-like, in a few years, if he can re-arm as he plans to.

      At this point, the solution I present is to give Ukraine precision weapons. I even say they should be given discreetly initially. Like anti-battery radars, electronics, and counter-battery fire. So if a truck fires Grad missiles, or a Russian tank fires, Ukrainian counter-fire could get them.

      Right now, the Ukrainians are dying aplenty: 50 died yesterday.

      Why does not Putin have an alternative? Why cannot he let his tanks on his side of the border, instead of 100 kilometers in?

      Answer: because he is a dictator in severe economic difficulty, and he needs war, as I explained.

      The French and German just want the agreement of last summer to be respected. And, first of all, to cease-fire. This is much less than what you are suggesting. Putin would say they already held elections in Donbass.

      Nobody is suggesting to send 300,000 Western soldiers to Ukraine. Not even 3 (three). We are talking about sending weapons, not men.

      All of this is very reminiscent of the situation with Hitler, as I have explained at the risk of sounding very repetitious.

      The French republic had forces clearly superior to Hitler’s in 1940. However, the Nazis had trained in Spain. So Nazi tactics were superior, catching both the Brits and French with their pants down. By the time those adapted, they had lost the Battle of France. This why, later, when confronted to the Brits and French, the Nazis mostly lost. This is also why the first large tank battle between Nazis and French, in Belgium, was won by the French.

      • ianmillerblog Says:

        Ha! The comfy war indeed, where the rest do the fighting. Given that Ukraine is in financial trouble and much of the fighting is done from the west with paramilitary irregulars and militias, what happens when they sell the advanced weapons? Remember, most of the help being given already doesn’t end up where needed. Also, Putin can’t let his side be out muscled. He will also send in more advanced weapons, and maybe people to use them. Now what? I am sure Putin would love to get his hands on some of the most advanced US weapons, and it would probably be worth while to send in special forces to capture some.

        The problem with the French german proposal is that it solves nothing. Both sides want mutually exclusive things. A ceasefire that gave independence to the east might stick, but Poroshenko isn’t going to accept that, and if he did, his right wing militias are hardly likely to.

        As an aside, the early german tanks were often Mark 1, which was little better than a truck with some steel plate.

        • gmax Says:

          Like Patrice says, it is all about Putin making war. It is not about specific territory. Are you buying Putin cool aid that Ukrainian forces are just NATO? But then why not eqjipping them well?

          Putin is just a serial rapist murderer, that is what he wants: rape, murder

  3. Paul Handover Says:

    Forget the so-called leaders! What is happening is that the general public are a great deal more wise about the reality of our modern world. I gave a short talk to the local Lions Club yesterday and included this sentence: “That there are destructive and dysfunctional issues in today’s societies: Selfishness; Power & Corruption; Short-termism; Materialism; Population growth; Greed, inequality and poverty.”

    There were a number of head nods from the listeners.

    Paul Handover
    February 11, 2015 at 16:55

  4. gmax Says:

    Those rabid pacifists are like this guy in Alaska who fed the bear the whole way. German film maker Herzog made a movie about him

  5. gmax Says:

    There were free elections in Ukraine. The president and the Prime Minister are NOT from the same party, although they both ran for presidents, the ypung snd hard line PM WON the legislative elections, the president beat him for the presidency

  6. Patrice Ayme Says:

    Putin invaded Ukraine. Then he organized a referendum, establishing independence. Next day he annexed the newly independent Crimea..

    There were “elections” in the east, in the Donetsk-Lushank areas, with single candidate lists. Nobody but Putin recognizes this.

  7. picard578 Says:

    Reblogged this on Defense Issues.

  8. Duviel Says:

    You have to assume Putin and the Russians are completely sane until proven wrong.

    There are certain things Russia cannot accept yet. Having Ukraine become part of NATO EU (or as they see it anti-Russia) is one of those things. Just like the US could not accept Mexico forming an alliance with Russia for example. We have to realize the West might have pushed too hard too early.

    We have to use good sense and stay hands off on Ex-soviet republics for now. We have to have our own red line and having Russian forces in Ukraine should be one of those for NATO. Ex-soviet republics should be hands of buffer zone for both sides until we realize we are no longer enemies. One day Russia will be part of the EU I believe but not yet, not now, not with Putin. But, we cant give Putin what he wants and give him an enemy to rally around.

    Ukraine needs to form a power-sharing governments to include ex-presidents party and allow eastern regions some internal autonomy. Eventually Ukraine can reconcile but right now we need to stop the fighting and allow Ukraine to heal itself in many ways.

    Its not like Russia invaded Poland or Romania. Ukraine was part of Russia just 25 years ago and we did provoke things by supporting the overthrow of ex-president and supporting anti-Russian coup. Did we think Russia was that weak that it would sit helplessly.

    I do agree that Putin might back off if NATO showed to be ready for War but that’s a huge risk to take for an ex-soviet republic.

    If Europe had stood up to Hitler in mid-late 1930’s whats to say we would not have had a war anyways.

    Lets give peace a chance.

    If Putin is greedy and stupid we might have a war anyways but lets give peace a chance.

    • Patrice Ayme Says:

      hello Duviel, and welcome here!
      Your comments should be able to go without moderation from now on (although those with lots of links get delayed)

      The European Union is a peaceful state. Even Putin agreed to that, for the first 14 years of his reign. Better: he proposed Russia as the defender of the EU! Putin had no objections to Yanukovitch (the destituted Ukrainian president) negotiating, for years, the EU ASSOCIATION accord. When Yanukovitch came close to signing, in Fall 2013, Putin suddenly rose Hades.
      So the sudden change was Putin’s. One can only assume that people who suddenly drastically change their position on very grave matters to suffer mental derangement.

      Young Ukrainians got furious. His own party dumped Yanukovitch. He had to flee to Russia.

      Students and other young people revolted in Ukraine, as they would have in Paris, if Putin had told them what to do. To demean the Ukrainians by saying “WE” did it, is a form of colonialism. Mental colonialism against Ukraine. Ukraine created Russian civilization. Legitimately, it’s furious against a dictator (Putin) who claim to speak for all Russian speakers, just as Hitler claimed to be talking for all German speakers.

      NATO is an entirely different matter. Countries of Eastern Europe which rushed into NATO did it because Russia has occupied, and warred on their territories for centuries, sometimes nearly eradicating them. Putin is obsessed by the Great Catherine: she got her empire within 80 kilometers of Berlin.

      It is understood (UN Charter) that countries and People (East Timor, South Sudan) have a right to dispose of their destiny. When Putin says he has a right to invade any country with Russians inside, he is following Hitler’s exact doctrine (and Hitler posed as a great defender of oppressed minorities, as long as he considered them Germans; turned out to be a pretext, as he refused them into the Reich later)

      There are Russian forces 100 kilometers inside Ukraine right now. A whole battery of heavy guns behind a RUSSIAN flag was shown on French TV.

      Peace was given a chance, it was given many chances, it’s still given a chance. Clearly Merkel does not want to go to war against Russia.

      However I have explained Putin needs war. He does not want peace. Give him all he wants now, he will be back, because he needs war. As I have explained the fundamental reasons are very similar to Hitler’s.
      PA

  9. Patrice Ayme Says:

    [Sent to NYT, Feb 15.]

    The usual brigade of pro-Putin, pro-Khadafy admirers will roll out in the comments, never having seen better Leaders… There is no proof that Libya is worse now than under the dictator.

  10. Tom Says:

    Why is everyone after Putin,when China has done it a long time back with Tibet which is 2.5 million square kms,almost 1/4th Europe’s size.Why has everyone conveniently forgotten that?Is it because it is at Europe’s doorstep like the invading Turks or Genghiz Khan were,that has everyone awake.Spare a thought for the poor Tibetans as well,they could do with some help as well.Nah we’re doing business with the Chinese,let’s not upset that apple-cart!

    • Patrice Ayme Says:

      Hi Tom, and welcome!

      1) Nobody said China was not a problem. There are more than 90 ethnicities in China. Many of them are full nations.
      China was united by… the Mongols (who founded the “Yuan” dynasty). When Genghis attacked, there were three main empires, and smaller nations, in the present PRC. Let alone Tibet and the Western Muslims.

      2) China is ready to explode.

      3) The USSR has exploded, Putin admitted publicly last week that he planned the war against Ukraine. Instead of joining the EU, Putin has decided to fight it (probably from vengeance, and the illusion that he is stronger, and the observation the West is rotten, so he may as well out-rot it).

      It is a march to war similar to that Hitler engaged in. My opinion, but my opinion is spreading. It took 6.5 years to go from Hitler arriving to power, and France and UK declared war to him. It takes time to prepare minds to war. This is what Putin is doing.

      Even “neutral” countries in Europe, like Sweden and Switzerland have just boosted their defense budget enormously in answer to the Putin threat. Let alone Poland (which just passed a law, according to which anybody who wants military training, can get it).

      Paradoxically, the large countries have not reacted: the USA, Germany the UK are still reducing military budgets. France made an about face, and just cancelled the planned reductions in military spending, a few months after passing them.

      Finally the plutocrats are consenting to let the Euro go down, and it’s changing things fast. Korea bought today 300 helicopters from Airbus (mainly based next to Marseilles).

      The plutocrats have had a conspiracy going on with their colleagues in China, indeed. I have proposed to strike all imposrts with a CARBON tax (both on the transport, and evaluated production).
      PA

    • Patrice Ayme Says:

      Another problem is that Putin’s aggressivity is obviously feeding Xi’s. We have seen this in the 1930s: Mussolini’s invasions encouraged plutocratic Japan, and that in turn made Hitler believed he could invade and France would not react (France did not, for the anti-symmetric reason: as the UK and the USA were more anti-France, than anti-Hitler).

      So Xi is building fortifications in the South China Sea, very far from China, closer to Philippines, Vietnam. Xi feels war will save him.

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