OUTSMARTING NASA (or is NASA, and other climate “scientists” being deliberately dumb?):

Abstract: Found below is the proof that Antarctica Is Already Breaking Up. Using a recent NASA study is crucial. Interestingly NASA drew the opposite conclusion from its own data. Had NASA been more ASTUTE, its data would have let it to the conclusion below. Amazingly, it did not. It’s all about the water level not changing in a glass with melting ice, and contrasting it with what happens when one starts with ice only!


I was reading the description of the damage from Sea Level Rise (SLR) in “Learning From Dogs”:“Interconnections Two”. Therein are found reference to “scientific” papers. The big question is what does “scientific” mean? “Science” means what’s known. The problem is that today’s scientists are afraid of the biggest questions, because the answers attached to them are very ugly, something intolerable in the age of beauty, celebrity, and philanthropy (aka plutocracy).

Antarctica Stripped Of Ice. In Some Places, Ice Rests On The Ground 2,500 Meters Below Sea Level (a mile and a half).

Antarctica Stripped Of Ice. In Some Places, Ice Rests On The Ground 2,500 Meters Below Sea Level (a mile and a half).

[NASA picture. The greyish area is now covered by kilometers of ice. The ice presses down with enormous weight, so its bottom is kilometers below sea level.]

Up to 2015, no reputable scientist would have dared to consider that the polar ice sheets could melt before several millennia. Such a contemplation was way too dangerous for their careers and livelihood. Thus the United Nation’s International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) excluded considering the gigantic masses of ice covering Greenland and Antarctica for its computations of Sea Level Rise. This is rather curious as the main factor in SLR is the melting of ice. This how the IPCC got to a roughly ONLY one meter of SLR by 2100 CE.

However, there is an obvious way to melt maybe half of the ice sheets instantaneously on a geological time scale: four degree centigrade (38 F) water is the densest, and can melt the threshold, the stoop holding them tight. Once that’s done, the water can flow down on the other side, a mile down or more.

Scientists have to be careful, because they need to be funded. In the plutocratic USA, funding varies from year to year, like carrots do for donkeys from day-to-day. The authorities funding “scientists” ultimately depend upon the fossil fuel lobby and related plutocratic lobbies which fund both politicians and private (“elite”) universities. So scientists cannot dare to roll out a half-baked theory, before we get fully baked ourselves. (But don’t worry, plutocrats want to roast us ASAP.)

Dr. Hansen, who used to work for NASA as chief climate scientist, published last Spring (2015) what he viewed as his “most important paper ever” arguing that ice sheet melting could rise sea level within a century or two by several meters. I am not that sanguine, I think it will happen much faster, and I can prove that it already started.

Indeed there is an obvious theory, full of brand new science, which demonstrates that the break-up of Antarctica ice sheets has already started: on October 30 2015, NASA published studies showing that Antarctica is actually gathering snow… And not losing it.

NASA Study: Mass Gains of Antarctic Ice Sheet Greater than Losses:

According to the new analysis of satellite data, the Antarctic ice sheet showed a net gain of 112 billion tons of ice a year from 1992 to 2001. That net gain slowed   to 82 billion tons of ice per year between 2003 and 2008.”

This is expected as the warmer it gets, the more the air carries water, the more it snows (until it turns to rain!) “We’re essentially in agreement with other studies that show an increase in ice discharge in the Antarctic Peninsula and the Thwaites and Pine Island region of West Antarctica,” said Jay Zwally, a glaciologist with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, and lead author of the study, which was published on Oct. 30 in the Journal of Glaciology. “Our main disagreement is for East Antarctica and the interior of West Antarctica – there, we see an ice gain that exceeds the losses in the other areas.”  Zwally added that his team “measured small height changes over large areas, as well as the large changes observed over smaller areas.”

To deduce the “net gain”, NASA, also using satellite data, watching changes of altitude carefully computed how much the volume change:

“Scientists calculate how much the ice sheet is growing or shrinking from the changes in surface height that are measured by the satellite altimeters. In locations where the amount of new snowfall accumulating on an ice sheet is not equal to the ice flow downward and outward to the ocean, the surface height changes and the ice-sheet mass grows or shrinks.

But it might only take a few decades for Antarctica’s growth to reverse, according to Zwally. “If the losses of the Antarctic Peninsula and parts of West Antarctica continue to increase at the same rate they’ve been increasing for the last two decades, the losses will catch up with the long-term gain in East Antarctica in 20 or 30 years — I don’t think there will be enough snowfall increase to offset these losses.”


So, if Antarctica is gathering ever more snow, as NASA showed, and as Sea Level Rise is accelerating, what is going on?

Officially, no one knows.

But I do know what is going on, because I think, and, as I am not funded by fossil fuel plutocracy, and I am strongly motivated as I consider anthropomorphic climate change the greatest problem humanity ever faced.

As all other factors have been considered, and as Sherlock Holmes would observe, all is left is what we cannot see: the ice sheets are already breaking up, from below. As I described in several essays, there is evidence that the Totten glacier, the plug holding the giant Aurora Basin in Antarctica, has melted on hundreds of kilometers, much below its apparently placid surface.

How come NASA did not see it? Because, if one puts ice in a glass containing water, and keep the temperature high enough to melt all the ice, the water level will NOT change. (This can be viewed as a consequence of Archimedes Principle).

So far, so good. However, the ice sheets are not floating: they rest on the ground, until the famous “grounding line”. So one cannot apply Archimedes Principle to start with. although one has to apply it, once the ice shield has become an ice SHELF, and floats, because it melted.

The very fact NASA saw nothing, no change of elevation, means a loss of mass from the ice sheets. This is due to the fact that ice occupies more volume than water. Relative to water, ice has only .91 of the density: this is why ice floats on water (Archimedes Principle).

So the ice sheets are breaking down, MELTING FROM BELOW, and they don’t go down, because more water is coming in.

Contemplate an ice cube in a glass: contemplate the top surface of the ice cube. That is what NASA’s satellites look at. If an ice cube melts in the glass, its top surface goes down until it completely disappears, level with the water surface. This loss of altitude is what NASA did not see, and thus it claims there is no melting. However, in the case of an ice sheet, to start with, the ice is resting on the ground, and there is NO water.

As the melting proceeds, water appears below. If the top level of the cube does not come down, it is that more water has been brought in.

How would we know this is happening? Well, if the global Sea Level is rising. Not only that, but SLR is accelerating (by 30% in the last three years).

If I find time, I will draw a little cartoon of the situation, but that’s not easy on a smartphone (I don’t own a tablet…)

Antarctica is breaking up. It’s happening from below, sight unseen. It requires a bit of logic to understand it, as we saw. When the unexplained Sea Level Rise will become blatantly catastrophic, and the climate in public opinion will be safe enough to parrot the reasoning above, said reasoning will be made by all scientists. Of artful parroting, and “hiding one’s sources” a successful scientific career is made… said no less an authority than Albert Einstein. However, that’s not as bad as hiding the main source of accelerating Sea Level Rise, as all climate scientists are presently doing, led by NASA.

A “scientist” is someone who knows. When “scientists” don’t want to know, lest they don’t get a paycheck, are they still “scientists”?

More generally, thinkers, those who think creatively, tend not to get a paycheck, because really new ideas are unsettling to all ideas. Those have most of the money generally have no interest to unsettle the established order upon which their fortunes rest. And it is the more so, the richer the richest individuals are. This is why a state owned by just one family, like Saudi Arabia, is so “conservative”. So, do we want to think, or do we accept to drown? That is the question.

In its own press release, linked above, NASA scientists declared:

“The good news is that Antarctica is not currently contributing to sea level rise, but is taking 0.23 millimeters per year away,” Zwally said. “But this is also bad news. If the 0.27 millimeters per year of sea level rise attributed to Antarctica in the IPCC report is not really coming from Antarctica, there must be some other contribution to sea level rise that is not accounted for.”

Well, it’s coming from Antarctica. It’s your logic which is faulty.

Patrice Ayme’

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18 Responses to “Proof ANTARCTICA Is BREAKING UP”

  1. Paul Handover Says:

    These are chilling facts, and my pun is deliberate! In a way, I hope that SLR is accelerating and that we are close, say fewer than five years, from some cataclysmic signal that more of the same is just not behaviorally, socially and politically acceptable.
    Correction: I hope we are closer than the life of two Presidential terms, eight years, from that signal. So the next President of the USA may have an interesting job!

    • Patrice Ayme Says:

      Meanwhile, the arrogance of plutocratic, tax stealing Apple Inc. is greater than ever (its GC went to Congress yesterday). New York City alone has more than 200 criminal iphones they can’t open. Western democracies have thousands of iphones related to criminal or terrorists activities they cannot open. And we are on the verge of completely unbreakable quantum communications generalized (plutocrats already use them). Apple depends upon complete secrecy for not paying its hundred BILLION plus tax bill.

      Not paying taxes and plotting our demise is all what plutocrats worry about. SLR is not their business. They have mansions in Aspen and Sun Valley…

  2. Paul Handover Says:

    Just for the sake of clarity, that exchange above between me and Patrice was originally recorded on my post Interconnections Two that is linked to in the opening paragraph. Delighted that it was ‘copied and pasted’ across to this place.

    • Patrice Ayme Says:

      Indeed, indeed…As a primitive embryo of today’s essay appeared first in Learning From Dogs, as something in “Interconnection Two” made me think of NASA’s mistake…

  3. Partha Shakkottai Says:

    Hi Patrice: I have a question. If ice resting on land melts, the meltwater is fresh water and will float on sea water and won’t go all the way down or will it by mixing in rough seas? Or is this too small an effect?

    • Patrice Ayme Says:

      Excellent question, Partha! It does not mix, because of the vast quantities involved. Actually it’s known that massive melt water shut down the Gulf Stream during the ned of the last massive glaciation (Dryas episode; typing my name with Dryas besides, “Patrice Ayme Dryas” should give results in Google!!!)

      In the last decade or so, a “mystery” appeared: Antarctica sea ice kept expanding, winter after winter. The field, crucial to humanity, or, at least Bangal Desh, is not well financed. So nobody knows for sure why.

      My theory of course is that the (SWEET) glacial melt from under the ice sheets comes back up (being sweet, thus lighter), yet it’s very cold, so, when it reaches the surface, it freezes (as it has less salt content than normal sea water. To my knowledge nobody has bothered to measure the salt density. In any case, that’s the complement of the theory in the essay today.

      The effects are not small, they are massive. The ice pack around Antarctica is millions of square kilometers. Its expansion has been used by the stupid perverse to pretend the planet was cooling (during the Dryas, as the Arctic was experiencing a renewed glaciation, Antarctica was warming up…)

  4. Gmax Says:

    I am not sure I understand fully. You agree with NASA on the data, but you found an error in their logic on how to interpret the data when one goes from the initial fully dry case, ice on rock, to the case when water slips below. Is that it?

    I think that’s it. Well, I am impressed. By you, not by NASA

    • Patrice Ayme Says:

      Well, if I find time, I will explain further. What you said is part of the general idea. NASA looked at just one case, and not the problematic one. The one through which danger is precisely coming…

  5. Patrice Ayme Says:

    [Sent to learning from Dogs, in connection with Al Gore’s TED video professing “optimism” on atmospheric pollution. A good video, BTW.]

    What about a gasoline tax? What about a carbon tax? Gee, never, we Americans are not into making serious efforts. Just buying complete cheat fake low mileage fancy, feel-good Priuses and Tesla. (Whereas the Obama administration cancelled fuel cell research, because that would have really made a difference!)

    The raw numbers is that US citizens emit more than twice as much CO2 than the average EU citizen, and three times more than the average French or Swiss.

    Most European countries, including fossil fuel producers Britain and Norway, pays ten dollars per gallon for gasoline.

    The problem is that we have less than ten years to cut CO2 emissions to zero. It will not happen. All we have left is mitigation.

    The USA, plus all what it makes in China and the like, is still the number one GreenHouse Gaz polluter. Gore’s point, optimism, is not deserved for Americans. They want to feel good about themselves, while doing as little as possible. Well, that’s not enough.

    A worldwide carbon tax is am immediate need. Meanwhile let’s all cheer, because the USA is still the GREATEST polluter on Earth, while most feel-good about itself!

  6. picard578 Says:

    And meanwhile, plutocratic EU is licking corporate asses:

    • Patrice Ayme Says:

      We The People (direct) Rule can now be imposed through directly voting on laws, using the Internet (did Apple not make a big deal that it was safe?) As long as we endow a special class of profiteers to make a career from leading us by the nose, they will serve the plutocrats, because that’s where what they crave after, power, is.

      • picard578 Says:

        I’m afraid voting is not enough. In Croatia, we voted on two or three referendums. Politicians always found ways to undermine these – by changing the Constitution (Croatia entered the EU because Constitution was suddenly changed so that joining it required 50%+1 vote of people who actually voted on the referendum, instead of all registered voters. End result, with many calling on boycott, and with votes being numbered/registered – oh, the memory of old totalitarian times – many Eurosceptics did not vote, and we entered the EU). When referendum stopped the gay marriage, Parliament simply allowed marriage under a different name – now, that doesn’t matter since the actual goal of referendum was to prevent adoption of children by gay couples, but they are pushing things in that direction, too.

        • Patrice Ayme Says:

          On “Gay” “marriage”: studies have shown the word “marriage” offended many (not just in Croatia). “They”, we, will get used to it.

          Direct voting is massive in Switzerland. When a “votation” comes in conflict with existing laws, or the official political structures, it gets interesting. For example the Swiss said no to further immigration from the EU (long story, they are sort of right). However, two days ago, the Swiss government acceded to the EU demand, and CROATIANS are now allowed free entry in Switzerland to work.

          So direct voting comes on top of the rest, and has to be arbitraged, like the rest.

    • Patrice Ayme Says:

      Thanks for that article, Picard!
      Start of the article:
      “EU told ExxonMobil that TTIP would aid global expansion, documents reveal. Trade chief told oil giant in secret talks that free trade deal could address its concerns over regulations restricting activities in developing countries.”

      Free trade is, to a great extent, free plutocracy. And that makes Paul Krugman, Reagan trade chief, a traitor to We The People.

      “John Hilary, the executive director of the campaign group War on Want, accused the commission of overstepping its mandate in the talks. “It is tantamount to corruption that the European commission should be prepared to work hand in glove with such vested interests in crafting deals that will have a profound effect on our environment,” he told the Guardian.”

      • picard578 Says:

        Free trade has, historically, always been used to empower plutocrats in economically powerful imperialistic powers. That is why United Kingdom always pushed for free trade through 18th and 19th centuries, and US did the same in 20th and 21st. It is legalized robbery, nothing more.

  7. Patrice Ayme Says:

    Picard: …CROATIANS are now allowed free entry in Switzerland to work.
    Are you against Croatia being part of the EU?

  8. NASA’s Antarctic Interpretational Error | Patrice Ayme's Thoughts Says:

    […] my theory on Antarctica introduces a new element: water. That element not considered by NASA adds a logical dimension. That makes my theory more […]

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