Archive for March, 2016

Sire, The Peasants Are Revolting!

March 18, 2016

“Sire, the peasants are revolting!” “Yes, they are, aren’t they?”

It’s an old joke, but, in truth, the ferocity of Anglo-Saxon plutocracy, under the guise of British humor, was second to none. It has long propagated to the USA. So it is no wonder that white middle and working class people are voting for Trump in droves.

In Eighteenth Century England, admirals and lesser officers were shot for losing battles to the French: “Dans ce pays-ci, il est bon de tuer de temps en temps un amiral pour encourager les autres” (Voltaire: in this country it is good to kill an admiral from time to time, to encourage the others).

Pitt, the notoriously French hating Prime Minister (who was to be succeeded by his even more French-hating PM son) told the King: “the House of Commons, Sir, is inclined to mercy”, to which King George responded: “You have taught me to look for the sense of my people elsewhere than in the House of Commons.”

This ferocity explains why English plutocracy took the ultimate measures to prevent the spread of the French Revolution: namely the British forces invaded Provence (yes, that’s far from England), a world coalition was organized by Britain mobilizing all of Europe against the French Constitutional (but Revolutionary) monarchy headed by Louis XVI, and 23 years of war ensued. Hating and fighting the French was an excellent distraction for the lower classes (just as rage against the EU distracts the Brits away from the true cause of their problem, namely world plutocracy headquartered in London). Ferocity, within Britain, also explains why the English did not revolt. Ferocity can be deployed not just against Indians, Blacks, and the French, but against all lower classes, including White Middle Class commoners.

Clinton's Plutophile Policies Killed More Than Just Iraqis. USW = US Whites

….Clinton’s Plutophile Policies Killed More Than Just Iraqis. USW = US Whites

[FRA = France, GER = Germany, USH = US Hispanics, Then UK, Canada, Australia, Sweden. This shows US Hispanics have it better than the whites, by the way]…

Krugman in what he should have called “Plutocratic Elite Reign Of Disdain”:

“….social collapse in the white working class is a deadly serious issue. Literally. Last fall, the economists Anne Case and Angus Deaton attracted widespread attention with a paper showing that mortality among middle-aged white Americans, which had been declining for generations, started rising again circa 2000. This rising death rate mainly reflected suicide, alcohol and overdoses of drugs, notably prescription opioids. (Marx declared that religion was the opium of the people. But in 21st-century America, it appears that opioids are the opium of the people.)

And other signs of social unraveling, from deteriorating health to growing isolation, are also on the rise among American whites. Something is going seriously wrong in the heartland.

Furthermore, the writers at National Review are right to link these social ills to the Trump phenomenon. Call it death and The Donald: Analysis of primary election results so far shows that counties with high white mortality rates are also likely to vote Trump.

The question, however, is why this is happening.”

As if we did not know! I stopped Krugman just where he was going to feed his readership their own opiate, (so-called) Republican bashing.

Please notice that mortality augmented from 1999 to 2013. The timing is important. The change, not just the inflection point, but the peak of healthy life, happened before “G. W. Bush’s reign” (to use Donald Trump’ expression).

So life expectancy started to go down, after seven years of Bill Clinton’s reign. Indeed, after 1992, under a democratic president presided over the dismantlement of President Roosevelt’s Banking Act of 1933. Why? Technically Clinton was given orders (literally) by Robert Rubin, a Goldman Sachs chairman, even before he started his rule.

Repulsing the Banking Act of 1933 (“Glass-Steagall”) gave banks enormous powers and the financiers all sorts of prerogatives, including lower taxes. It drove enormous inequality. Roosevelt’s idea had been to prevent banks to invest in the financial markets. Indeed banks are in charge of creating most of the money (under the guise of credit). So banks have a fiduciary duty in the modern state, and should not enrich themselves too much (at least so FDR thought).

So the present social disarray is not only the work of so-called Republicans.

It also means that a really democratic program should be more like Sanders’ and roll back the obscene prerogatives bankers and financiers acquire in the 1990s. And let’s not forget that, after Obama got to power, he lowered tax rates on the richest  by 20% (as the New York Times recently showed). The idea was to apply some sort of trickle-down maneuver. Also bankers and shadow financiers were put back in shape, through TARP and then Quantitative Easing (Hillary Clinton never mentions Quantitative Easing, trillions of dollars given to bankers, supposedly so that they would multiply and redistribute them).

Evidence from the despair of the white middle and working class, is that this did not work.

Obama’s reign was more of the same devolution into plutocracy, engaged ever since plutocrat Kaiser, the industrialist, persuaded Richard Nixon to set-up the HMO system, on the public purse.

So now, here is Trump. Trump says he knows the system very well, he was in the system, he was part of the establishment, he profited from it, “but the system is wrong”. Weirdly, a leftist fringe has reacted by sending protesters to disrupt Trump rallies. It’s weird, because Trump is more on the record against the financiers’ special tax status, and for some sort of “socialist” or “single payer” health care system (which Clinton disingenuously claims the richest country in the world, with the most inefficient and costly health plutocracy in the world cannot afford.

Some hysterical would-be anti-racists explained to me that Trump would make minorities wear a yellow star. The last person I saw wearing a yellow star was the ex-president of Brazil, who claims he is prosecuted for corruption for political reason (the Brazilian president then nominated her friend Lula to her cabinet to escape prosecution; a judge blocked that).

***

That Violent Trump Trumped Us Forever:

8 million people under judicial supervision in the USA, tens of thousands of murder a year, the police not even counting how many it kills a year, gigantic income inequality, tuition at “public’ universities equal to median family income, Obama lowering taxes on the richest by 20% in 2009, financiers taxed at a lower rate than janitors, no public health plan: obviously all the fault of Trump!

Didn’t a white supporter punch a colored protester? (He was criminally charged.) The problem of violence in the USA is deep in the hearts and (lack of) mind of the people, including those who protest the loudest against Trump now, but stayed silent and uninformed, for many decades.

Trump is the red herring of those incapable of thoughtful critique. Trump was not in power, twenty years ago, when the president of the USA outlawed the Banking Act of 1933. Somebody was, and he is running again.

***

When  The American Dream Becomes A Nightmare:

One of the author of the white mortality study, Deaton, thinks middle-aged white Americans have “lost the narrative of their lives

This demographic group has faced a rise in economic insecurity over the last two decades decade, driven by things like the financial crisis, collapse of manufacturing.(from “free trade”), the exponentiating costs of education and health care.

Vox does not get it: “Still, it’s difficult to put together a full story of what’s going on. After all, if the recession or decline of manufacturing was the only factor, we might expect to see a similar uptick in mortality rates among middle-aged people in places such as Europe. But America seems to be unique in this regard.”

I tell you what, Vox, you should travel more: One can still get free universal, excellent health care in all of Europe, so the drift into disease will be blocked. In power houses such as France or Germany (the two largest economies in Europe), quality education is free, all the way to the highest degrees, such as PhD. Moreover, the social safety system is elaborate. Minimum wage in France and Germany is 15 Euros an hour (more than $15).

Nobel Winner Deaton: “An anthropologist friend here says that [white, middle-age Americans] have lost the narrative of their lives — meaning something like a loss of hope, a loss of expectations of progress,” he explained.”

Deaton added that minority Americans as a group are still worse off overall. Yet, their quality of life has improved over the past several decades. “… when Hispanics look back, they may look back to where they came from, or what their parents or grandparents had”. he continued.

So Deaton says middle-aged white Americans have had higher expectations than others when it comes to steady employment and a bright future. Losing that could well be driving their deadly behaviors.

Or then they don’t know how to think anymore, and, instead of raging against the system, they rage against themselves, just as those protesters who rage against Trump should rather rage against said system.

But it’s tiring to rage against the system, because one has to get informed outside of the box propaganda has put one’s brain in. So, to fight the system, for real, one has to fight oneself a bit, too, at least in the beginning.

Patrice Ayme’.

Bush-Clinton: Vive La Difference!

March 15, 2016

Those who are abused, if they have been abused long enough, cannot conceive of the world differently. They want the abuse, it has become home, sweet home. The Clintons have abused the world, thus all too many people, cannot conceive of the world, any other way. And the more downtrodden and abused, the more enthusiastic about Clintons.

And who is this Clinton?

Bush’s lover?

Vive La Difference! At Least We Killed Together More Than A million Iraqis, & They Love US For It!

Vive La Difference! At Least We Killed Together More Than A million Iraqis, & They Love US For It!

The Clintons already helped Reagan in his Iran-Contra conspiracy. It’s probably why they were chosen by the powers that be, to nominally lead the world towards oblivion, through plutocracy.

Polls recently showed Senator Sanders would defeat Donald Trump by 18%, a gigantic margin. However, for reasons I will not get into here, it’s clear to me that Trump will defeat Clinton. And this is also what the polls tend to indicate.

One factor: we have been living in Clintonia, for a quarter of a century. Another word for it: plutocracy, much of it, financial. Trade deals, here and there, to turn around local law, destruction of the Banking Act of 1933.

Overconfident “democrats” say: no problem we will call Trump a racist, and all the anti-racists will vote for Clinton. Somebody explained to me today that Trump will make Muslim wear a yellow star. (Nota Bene: It’s Islam, in the Eight Century, which introduced marks on clothing to distinguish Christians and Jews; the idea was picked up later in Occident.)

I say this: a good way to get Trump elected is to say outrageous lies about him now. As the lies are outrageous, they are easy to reveal as such. If “democrats” were crafty, they would wait August to tell big lies.

But the best way to get president Trump, is to foster Clinton and her cortege of dispiriting ugliness.

In other news some savage inspired by Islam (he said), grievously attacked to soldiers in Canada. Meanwhile a joint operation of the French and Belgian police in Brussels resulted in a shootout with Muslims, injuring at least four policemen. One of the wounded police was a French policewoman (France should annex its rogue province of Belgium, especially in light of Belgian tax-cheating for plutocratic corporations, and general lack of imperium). One Jihadist was killed in combat, two, heavily armed Jihadists, succeeded to flee, jumping from roof to roof. The killed Jihadist was a 36 year old Algerian, unlawfully in the European Union, yet unknown from security agencies (as were many of the attackers in Paris in November).

Probably all the fault of Trump, will insist simpletons. In truth, it’s the fault of a literal reading of the world’s most read hate book. Those who are not too sure about what I mean can consult:

https://patriceayme.wordpress.com/2009/06/22/some-violence-in-holy-quran/

[By the way, my compendium of quotes, Some Violence In the Holy Qur’an” consists of 8,000 words from violent verses in the Qur’an. It’s readily available from the Google Search Engine. However it’s blocked on the Bing Search Engine, because Wahhabist Fundamentalists have complained about to Microsoft about my faithful compendium of 10% of their Holy Book. So Microsoft can be viewed, in light of that fact, as an enabler of religious terrorism. This is all the more striking, because Microsoft/Al Qaeda/Islamist State, by censoring me, as if I were a terrorist, block here the Holy Qur’an itself!]

And am I against immigration? Foaming at the mouth like a caricature of Trump? Not at all. Am I even against Muslim immigration? Not all. And I think millions of immigrants have been treated abominably by European authorities.

I am for immigration, but only if it incorporates assimilation. (Some will say that’s rather ironic, as I am the less assimilable creation around; right, however there is good assimilation, and bad assimilation: I am not less, and hateful, but more, and benevolent.)

Assimilation does not mean one has nothing to bring mentally to the table: it means one brings positive new cultural elements, while one gets help to reject the bad elements one is handicapped with. Half Africanizing Europe, or America, is fine with me, as long as it lifts all mental boats.

I go even further: at some point Senegalese had French nationality. Thus I believe that, if they look half kosher, Senegalese should be given at least French residency. And thus European residency.

The case of Senegal is indeed different from, say, Cameroon; it’s not just a question of history, but mentality. The Senegalese have traded with the West for more than 25 centuries. It’s not their fault if their country has only sun, sand and fish (and now raising seas which force evacuation of villages).

Jihadists have been burning with desire to organize a Muslim Wahhabist attack in Senegal, but the strong “Sufi” Senegalese Islam has blocked them. That Senegalese Islam is 100% compatible with 100% Western civilization, thus it is 100% condemnable that it is not supported more by Europe.

When my friend Obama ran for the presidency, his main slogan was: “Change You Can Believe In!”  Indeed; no change at all. At least, in the case of Clinton, that’s clear: are we going to defeat Donald Trump with Bush’s lover? Change We Can Believe In! More of the same, and not even in a new package!

Patrice Ayme’

Islam: Basic Most Important Features

March 14, 2016

All religions want to appear nice. But that does not really matter, when judging their lethality. One wants, instead, to look at their worst side. Christianism does not look good that way, considering its symbol is a human tortured to death on a cross. And what’s inside the Bible, even the New Testament, can be pretty terrible.

However, Islam learned this lesson well (Islam descends from Judeo-Christianism, plus a few desert tweaks).

Everybody should read the Qur’an, especially those who want to talk about Islam, and why it should not be feared! I am a pretty good expert on Islam…

An excellent project is to write about Islam. I hope you writers out there, are aware of my:

https://patriceayme.wordpress.com/2015/03/19/perspective-islamophobia-is-not-racist/

and the nice collection:
https://patriceayme.wordpress.com/2009/06/22/some-violence-in-holy-quran/

The Hadith goes further, and has the explicit order to kill all Jews so that God can proceed with the Last Judgment:
https://patriceayme.wordpress.com/2015/01/16/thought-crime/

Hadith 41;685: …”Allah’s Messenger… : The last hour would not come unless the Muslims will FIGHT against the Jews and the Muslims would KILL them…”

The “last hour” is the Day of Judgment (as found already in the Bible).

Adolf Hitler had more than a passing familiarity with Islam, which he admired, he said. Hitler loved the fact Islam was a war religion. Hitler despised Christianism, because it considered it (erroneously) not prone enough to war.

In any case, the holocaust of the Jews is certainly an order in the Hadith, and it would be interesting to find that it directly influenced Hitler (or other pogrom leaning Christians).

Just yesterday, March 13, there were deadly attacks killing more than 50 people, by Muslim Fundamentalists in Turkey and Ivory Coast.

[The present post appeared by mistake, after some malfunctioning of WordPress. However, I may as well leave it.]

Sometimes the truth is best told in a few words: it’s better to be rough, yet not far from reality, than sophisticated and irrelevant. There is a deep fundamental reason for this: all and any system of thoughts is, in first order, the system of axioms which generate it (the logic animating these axioms is secondary, because logical rules are, generally, roughly the same, and not surprising).

Patrice Ayme’

Crazed Secrecy Empowers Killer Pilots

March 13, 2016

SECRECY EMPOWERS MASS KILLERS ALL OVER THE WORLD. Direct Democracy Necessary To Prevent That.

Abstract: Secrecy enables insanity in the pilots of the world. Direct democracy, with its transparent debate, is the ever more necessary antidote…

The French BEA (Bureau Enquete Accident: Inquiry Accident Bureau) the world’s prime agency on transportation accidents, came up with its detailed analysis upon, and recommendation from, the crash of a German Wings A 320, which killed 150 people. The BEA’s work has bearing on general world technological, social and political problems of prime importance, including the locking of smartphones, so I will revisit here this dreadful subject.

The BEA found that the 27 years old copilot, Andreas Lubitz, caused the crash, deliberately (as nearly everybody knew from the first declaration of French justice).

The captain, discovering the door of cockpit was locked, tried to knock it down, and failed. The BEA says this is OK, and should not be changed (I disagree with that; a system of unlocking from the ground, and, or using Artificial Intelligence could probably be set-up).

The BEA found that MEDICAL SECRECY should be lifted for pilots. It noted that, a week prior to the crash his German doctor had wanted to forcefully hospitalize, for major psychiatric disorder, the  murderous copilot. In any case the doctor advised the pilot to reside in a hospital, two weeks before the crash. He was also prescribed a work stoppage, which was effective the day of the crash. However Lubitz did not inform Lufthansa.

150 People Died In The French Alps Because Of Vicious Secrecy. It Could Have Been Much More. And then, What Of The World?

150 People Died In The French Alps Because Of Vicious Secrecy. It Could Have Been Much More. And then, What Of The World?

Several doctors followed Lubitz, and viewed him as completely nuts. However, because of existing medical secrecy laws, the information that one of its pilots was a crazed maniac, did not make it to the airline.

In view of the BEA report on Sunday, March 13, 2016, the French Civilian Pilot Authority requested that medical secrecy be lifted for pilots having psychological problems. The European EASA demanded six measures, including a second person in the cockpit at all times, and various psychological strategies.

In any case, we meet again the problem posed by the increasingly enormous power of modern technology. Andreas Lubitz knew extremely well the part of the French Alps he crashed on. He learned to fly there as a youth. In the area, not only are concentrated cities in plain view, but so are in plain view nuclear power plants with multiple reactors. He also crashed within a few kilometers of the largest dam in Europe (Serre Poncon: OK, the extremely well-built dam would have certainly resisted, and the nuclear plants are supposed to resist; however not all nuclear plants and dams in Europe, or the world, can take it).

It gets worse: suppose a “president” of some major nuclear power goes crazy (OK, Putin is already crazy, but, so far, it’s a mild case). I would argue that “presidents” in general are already giving clear signs of insanity (as their global policies are bringing the destruction of the biosphere).

The point is that we are giving too much uncontrollable powers to too few with too much secrecy. This is how Hitler became Hitler and could proceed with his holocaust. While brandishing plausible deniability, as the Nazis were careful to leave nothing in writing… well, nearly nothing: some documents slipped through the cracks of Nazi secrecy.

Obama did not proceed any differently with his drone assassination program: I agree assassinations may be necessary, and I also agree drones are excellent weapons. However the combination of the preceding with extreme secrecy has enabled the institutionalization of evil. Now that Obama has done this, nothing prevents a future president, somewhere, to kill millions with drones (the ultra massive bombing campaign which reduced Nazi Germany to a dysfunctional rubble killed much less than a million people, because civilians went to shelters, or were evacuated after preliminary attacks).

Thus Obama should tell us, attack after attack, what criterions he personally used to kill civilians in countries far away, and publish the guidelines. In other words, I want to know how he differed from Andreas Lubitz plotting his murder of innocent people.

Psychological secrecy should be lifted for pilots. Lubitz piloted 150 persons. Obama, Putin, or Xi pilot more than seven billion. What do we know about their justification. How do we know that these arrogant masters have it all together? How do we know they are not driven by faulty logic or knowledge?

Alright, not to heap too much abuse on my friend Obama: perhaps chastised by his early errors with banks, drones, etc. he has understood the danger of those who, in Silicon Valley want to use secrecy to impose the rule of terror (how does that make sense? Well actually not only is monopolistic plutocracy, Silly Cone Valley style, terror, but the present terrorists and their ideology, were initially enabled by the ideology of the predecessors of the present plutocrats: a long story going back millennia I have literally spent millions of pages telling… watch for my next installment on Augustus, viewed as the mastermind of the system we are presently enjoying!)

Civilization is one. Ultimately, it’s a big tribe. Some cannot be left to brandish nukes as the North Korean dictator is doing. It could not just ruin our day, it’s bad for global mental health.

The correct attitude is to do what the Brazilian authorities did. The former president of Brazil, a former union leader, lived in an eight million Euros mansion. But he could not explain where he found the money to buy it (he is not as well organized as the Clintons, who are more than twenty times wealthier!) So now he is in jail.

Good.

Who needs secrecy anyway? Outlaws?

So let Obama go after Apple and “What’s App”, showing some virtuous guts, for once. Those who enable terrorists are terrorist themselves. Secrecy enabled the Kaiser’s attack onto the world in 1914, and then Lenin-Stalin abominable rule, Hitler’s various holocausts and insane rampages. It does not spare the USA: G W Bush’s invaded Iraq, by invading first the minds of tens of millions of Americans, with poisonous lies.

The young North Korean dictator owed his success in succeeding his father to his uncle. So he had the uncle tortured and fed, alive, to dogs. It should be more widely known. Lifting secrecy is necessary, and it will feed more inclination to examine the most important facts.

Life on Earth beyond the bacterial stage, has become incompatible with secret vices.

Patrice Ayme’

Record Heat: Non Linear World

March 12, 2016

World Global Monthly Temperature Is Blowing Up (NASA data, March 2016)

World Global Monthly Temperature Is Blowing Up (NASA data, March 2016)

Temperatures Blowing Up, As Expected: THE SINGULARITY HAS ARRIVED

(Doomed) Presidential Candidate Sanders insists, correctly, that the USA needs a revolution. So does the world. Plutocracy, its “money changers” (president Roosevelt), carbonizers and political servants have taken over not just the honor of the human spirit and civilization, but also the biosphere itself. Meanwhile the planet is reacting:

Some smart donkeys will point out that this is the year of the strongest El Nino ever. The much smarter ones will retort that, when the planetary warming is fast and furious, El Nino will arrive every year. That’s not a joke, it’s paleontology of the climate.

People such as the present author have long pointed out that nonlinear effects could come in gear any day, launched by the anthropic poisoning of the atmosphere by man-made greenhouse gases. It is basically what happens in a criminal forest fire: somebody comes with a match. Given dry weather, high temperatures, and a wind, a vast conflagration results. As I said the three great Antarctic Glacial Basins could disappear in decades, not millennia. And soon.

This general mess is part of the famed “singularity”. It is fundamentally caused by the nonlinear rise of scientifically driven uncontrolled industry.

What Matters Most Is What Is Happening At the Poles, Where the Heating Is Maximal

What Matters Most Is What Is Happening At the Poles, Where the Heating Is Maximal

At some point this Winter temperatures went above freezing… at the north pole itself. The ice pack is accordingly at the lowest extent, ever. Proverbially, frogs are supposed not to jump, if one rises the temperature slowly. Meanwhile, the porous limestone on which Florida lies will not allow to save Miami with the simple expedient of building dams.

When Obama became president, he fixed the… Bush presidency. An admirer of Reagan, Obama lowered the taxes on the richest, by 20%, because followers of Reagan believe in “trickle down economics”. Then Obama gave a trillion to the banks (“TARP”), which reimbursed the Treasury, as the lying Clinton disingenuously, but correctly points out… Tanks to many trillion of dollars given to banks by the Federal Reserve (another branch of the government).

While Obama was busy saving the class he had been told he joined (and here is your Nobel Prize, boy!), he let the planet burn.

The Obama’s doctrine fundamental principle is: “Don’t do stupid shit!” However, when facing a singularity with a mind of its own, there is no difference between “doing stupid shit” and not doing anything.  Because the most stupid thing we can do is, nothing at all. Even Trump supporters have understood this. Obama thought that, by doubling up on Reagan policies, he would improve matters. Now he has to face these graphs. Like the butchery in Syria, they are his babies. There were holocaust before, a few hundred thousands Syrian dead, is nothing special, in the land of the “religion of eternal peace”, agreed.

However, the cooking of the biosphere will long live as the greatest infamy, ever. And those who wanted power so bad, and chose the worst as advisers, will be forever accused by history. Where is your suggestion to put a carbon tax, Mister President? Too busy asking your plutocrats for money? Cooking the biosphere is Obama’s gift, the change we can believe, because that’s the one we can see.

Patrice Ayme’

Debate Is Human, Tyranny Is Not

March 11, 2016

FUKUSHIMA, NAZISM, SYRIA: FOR LACK OF DEBATE

“Tyranny” means the rule of one.

For example Obama decided not to intervene in Syria. All alone. He thought it was smart. Now hundreds of thousands more civilians died there. The point is that he decided that all alone, which a herd of sycophants bleating around. He is The One. An Augustus for our time.

The world is decided by a few. That’s the so-called “Representative Democracy”.

For example, British MPs decided to deprive PM Cameron of the authorization of intervening in Syria. That in turn, undermined the confidence of The One who leads the USA from-behind. Who made these few so knowledgeable? Right, they were elected. So were many kings and emperors, and the members of the Roman Senate. Hitler was elected, and won plebiscite.

Maybe We Should Elect Artists To Lead Us? Oops. Tried Before

Maybe We Should Elect Artists To Lead Us? Oops. Tried Before

The king of Bavaria, who refused to participate in the grandiose German militarization to finish the French Republic (and then master Russia), diverted spending of his state towards the construction of immensely expensive, fabulous castles, such as glorious Neuschwanstein above. But look at this painting better: it’s actually signed.

Most of those few who decide everything are remarkably ignorant. That comes with the function: how can one who spends most of his/her time telling artful lies to be elected, have artistic capability for anything else?

Adolf Hitler thought he did: “I am an artist and not a politician. Once the Polish question is settled, I want to end my life as an artist.” (A lie said to a British diplomat in 1939) Hitler’s painting (above) of Neuschwanstein sold for more than $100,000 in 2015. One day soon, it will be worth millions (don’t tell me it’s worse than what passes for most of modern “art”, for once I agree with The Guide).

Five years ago, the nuclear plant at Fukushima was hit by a thirty meter wave, towering menacingly over the security cameras. The reactors resisted successfully (they had already SCRAMed during the 9.1 Richter quake), but the electricity feeding the cooling pumps was out. There should have been mobile energy generators, but they were in Florida (!) In the absence of circulating coolant, the reactors overheated and melted down in the next few hours or days.

The blowing up and melting of the reactors at Fukushima was a completely, easily avoidable accident. A national, popular, even international debate would have avoided it. Secrecy enabled it. TEPCO (Tokyo Electric Power COmpany) had hidden all it was doing:

  1. Putting at sea level (by destroying a cliff), nuclear reactors.
  2. Not having an emergency mobile electric generating system
  3. Ignoring the similar tsunami which had happened 12 centuries earlier (and that was written all over, including on warning monuments inside the forest).
  4. In the last two centuries, Japan enjoyed many tsunamis. The largest one was more than 100 meters tall, the second largest, 85 meters. Nearly all Japanese nuclear reactors are located in places where tsunamis will be maximal (weird… but it makes sense!)

The preceding points should (have been) debated. Point 4) is understandable (cooling by sea, access by road, long debate; but, once understood, countermeasures should be devised). Points 1), 2) and 3) have no excuses.

The less nuclear power, the higher the sea. Pseudo-ecologists will probably get that, when Miami has been transformed into an aquatic park.

As we wait for president Trump to be the Trump card trumping all, it is good to ponder that the very principle of representative politics is not representative of humanity.

Whether greedy Clinton and her cortege of professionally greedy vampires is better than greedy Donald with a similar cortege of exploiters is besides the point.

“Politics” is about the city: “polis”. Politics should not be about just one greedy persona and his/her second rate philosophy. Being all about one guy, that’s called “TYRANNY”. Obama, Hollande, Merkel, Cameron, Renzi, Abe, Trudeau, are basically tyrants: the systems they lead are similar, and are actually perfectly well oiled versions of The Roman Imperial System set-up by emperor Augustus. One man at the top, a small oligarchy below (the Roman Senate had more than 600 members, and they were elected…)

Meanwhile “The Atlantic” produced “The Obama Doctrine”.

Obama believes that G. W. Bush invaded Iraq because he was stupid, surrouded and advised by stupid people who blundered into invading Iraq. “The Iraq invasion, Obama believed, should have taught Democratic interventionists like Clinton, who had voted for its authorization, the dangers of doing stupid shit.”

Obama is naive: he thinks human behavior is all about smarts. (Amusingly, I know a classmate of his, much smarter than he is, who believes exactly the opposite.) But, the reason for the invasion of Iraq was not avoiding “the dangers of doing stupid shit”.

It was the exact opposite.

The invasion of Iraq was doing stupid shit, knowing full well everybody in the know knew it was stupid shit. And it’s rather stupid of Obama not to have figured that out.

Patrice Ayme’

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE SOON ALL TOO HUMAN

March 10, 2016

What Characterizes Human Intelligence?

HOW DO HUMAN & ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCES DIFFER?

We had a president Obama running amok with his “signature strikes” with half-blind drones with pixelated vision killing civilians, far from battle fields, in far-away lands. These crimes full of technological arrogance gave a bad name to Artificial Intelligence. Are we far from robots running amok? It’s clear that the Obamas of this world will have to be reined in.

The (Korean) world champion of the famous Chinese game “Go” was beaten by a Google computer: “I am very surprised because I have never thought I would lose. I didn’t know that AlphaGo would play such a perfect Go.” The champ looked a bit frazzled, but not as angry as Gary Kasparov, the world chess champion, when he was beaten by an IBM computer program, DeepBlue. Kasparov stormed out of the room.

Kasparov’s anger was not an intelligent reaction, because it was obvious, all along, that chess is not such an intelligent game that a simple machine cannot do better. If you want a really  intelligent game, try to become really ethical (vote for Sanders, not the corrupt one). Ethics? A supremely human game where my friend Obama failed miserably. He and his toys, armies of drones and plutocrats.

The Artificial Neural Networks We Build Do Not Grow Naturally. And Their Neuronal Nodes Are Simplistic Relative To Real Neurons. Real Neurons Are Environmentally Sensitive Self Building Micro Computers.

The Artificial Neural Networks We Build Do Not Grow Naturally. And Their Neuronal Nodes Are Simplistic Relative To Real Neurons. Real Neurons Are Environmentally Sensitive Self Building Micro Computers.

“Go” is 3,000 years old. A Go board is 19 by 19, a Chess board, is 8 by 8. People who love to sound scientific say: “Go has more combinations that there are atoms in the universe” (reality check: we don’t know how big the universe is, so we cannot know how many atoms are therein!)

DeepBlue used brute force to beat Kasparov. With “Go”, the breakthrough came from using neural networks. Neural networks can be made to learn. The computer used a program called “Alphago” (devised by my whipping boy, Google, which I congratulate, for once!)  “Alphago” had to use something closer to “INTUITION”, some even say, imagination.

***

Does Patrice “Make Things Up”? I Hope So!

A few days ago, I pointed out to some would-be Stoics that the trite rejoinder of his admirers that Marcus Aurelius was the first emperor “with a natural born son” was a grotesque lie. I rolled out counterexamples, complete with the names of various sons…

All these sons were not named emperors-to-be, by their doting fathers. Only Marcus Aurelius did that This is of considerable import, because Marcus Aurelius is viewed as a pinnacle of wisdom by a large following (Marcus is the Muhammad of Stoicism).

Whereas I claim that, when Aurelius named his five year old son second in command in the empire (“Caesar”), contrarily to all Roman tradition, Marcus Aurelius showed he was anything but wise. Insane maniac, would-be king, violating the Republic is more like it. In particular, the two emperors just prior to Marcus Aurelius had more than three sons and grandsons, yet nominated none of them as successors when they were children. Although Marcus did. (Even the kings of Saudi Arabia don’t really do this!)

That, in turn, shows that Marcus’ followers have a serious problem evaluating reality. And sure they do.

A philosopher with a prestigious chair reacted angrily, accused me in public of “MAKING THINGS UP”. Even as a self-described “stoic” he could not take the reality of all these sons anymore.

Of course, I did not make anything up, in this particular case. I shoot vicious minds to kill, or, at least, maim. It’s best done with the truth.

But accusation got me to think. Do I make things up? That’s one beautiful thing about nature and its dangerous animals: even rattlesnakes can help me to think. Especially rattlesnakes.

The obvious glared back to me: even to find the truth, one has to make things up. First make things up (that’s imagination, which is most important, as Einstein pointed out). That’s making a theory. Or, in the deep cases, making a new neural networks (this is the part where intuition, that is emotion enters, as it is exactly what builds the network). Then checks that this new theory fits the truth (that’s the part where the network learn).

In the case of Aurelius, after revering him for a few decades, I came across facts and quotes which changed my emotional disposition relative to him. Instead of staying a psychological prisoner of his “Meditations”, I became an hostile witness, and explored facts which would demonstrate Marcus Aurelius’ viciousness. I found plenty (including the “natural son” story).

***

HUMAN HIGHEST INTELLIGENCE IS ABOUT MAKING THINGS UP:

My theory of the mind is simple: impelled by genetics and epigenetics (both in the most general sense imaginable) plus the environment, neural circuitry gets elaborated in an attempt to make mini models of pieces of nature within the brain. So mental circuits are (SORTS OF) answers to the environment.

“Sort of” is crucial: it means the neural circuitry elaborated in reaction will often NOT be (capable of being) a faithful (enough) model of the environment. That’s literally impossible, but that discrepancy is precious.

That discrepancy is the difference between what the neural circuitry impelled by the (perceived) environment and said (real) environment, is human creativity.

(I say “human”, for ease of conceptualization, but actually I should say “animal intelligence”.)

What is going on with Artificial Neural Network machines? They learn, as we do through what is called the Hebbian mechanism.

How to explain neural network learning in the simplest terms? Basically, in very rough first approximation, imagine the neural network is a canal system (made of canal which can be eroded). Suppose one wants an output: more water through a desired exit gate. Suppose one augment the flow there (say by lowering that exit gate). The canal network will adjust itself to maximize output.

However, we, very intelligent animals use a META-HEBBIAN mechanism of neuronal network genesis. In Artificial Neural Networks, the network is given, and then it learns: the neural circuit is provided presently by humans to become part of a machine.

The machine does not make it itself. But we do.

Human brains literally make things up, because we objectively, physically, make our neural networks up. We do not just tweak our networks. The networks which characterize our highest intelligence are themselves answers to the environment we are in.

To make a neural network we use emotions: it is known that emotional activity drives dendrite growth, thanks to glial activity.

These neural networks’ construction is tightly controlled from the outside, not just by the environment in the most general sense, but, essentially, by what we call culture. Culture is the set of schematics of the networks which work.

***

So, when we want to explore if machines could become as clever as human beings, we have to ask: could machines be devised to make things up? Could machines be devised which would make their own artificial neural networks?

Many of our fundamental neural networks (such as those controlling breathing) from “genetics” (in the most general sense). Those arise semi-automatically (with minimal back and forth with the environment). However, we make our own most sophisticated neural networks from the emotions which guide their architecture. Emotions are organized topologically, with NON-METRIC topology.

Unfortunately, or fortunately, and certainly worryingly, yes, we could make machines which have their own emotions which build their own neural networks. There is no reason to think we could not build such machines. They probably would have to use artificial neurons, etc. (And why not real neurons?)

The superiority of the human mind comes from making things up, or making ourselves up. Such machines would be similar.

Technologies, the special discourses, are our genus’ genius. Technologies made our genus possible, for at least three million years. Artificial, creative intelligence is more of the same, generating what we become. Not only we are becoming gods, but gods we cannot even imagine.

Imagination is when we make things up. It entails the construction of neural networks which will constitute what future knowledge is made of. This is why imagination is more important than knowledge. Because, without imagination, all the knowledge we would have would reflect neither creativity, nor even will.

Oh, by the way, should we panic? No. But it means that clueless individuals such as the ethically challenged Obama should not have the powers he had under stupid and Nazi-like technology such as drones used to kill civilians. It’s not a matter of replacing Obama by Sanders (although that would be a good idea).

We need a revolution (as Sanders say). We are going to get, in any case, a technological revolution. Intelligence is going to become a science.

But that intelligence revolution has to be about direct democracy fed by the best information possible, that is, total transparency, the exact opposite of the world the malefactor manufacturer Apple is proposing to us. And Obama in all this? He has only a few months to atone for the crimes he committed with the wanton usage of high tech he made. But first, he would have to realize how egregious they were.

This goes well beyond drones. Having the correct ethics will be fundamental for the safe and effective deployment of all too human artificial intelligence.

Patrice Ayme’

Global Trade Outlaws Rule

March 9, 2016

FREE TRADE IS NEITHER FREE, NOR A TRADE

Sanders’ surprise victory in Michigan, a big industrial state, is attributed to his attacks against so-called “free” trade (Clinton has never seen a “free” trade treaty she did not love). Ditto for Donald Trump’s victory in the same state (Trump has proposed a 45% tax on Chinese imports). Polls show angry white males and the young (for Sanders) are voting against the system which brought to them the globalization of pauperization. Rightly so.

Let me provide more needed theory:

As it is, globalization means plutocratization.

First, globalization without redistribution implies plutocratization. (As Paul Krugman asserts.)

Second, globalization of trade without globalization of law amounts to trade without law. Thus, organizations, corporations and plutocrats presently engaged in global trade are, technically, out-laws.

Third the immense fortunes gathered by the trade outlaws have enabled them, in turn to pay well their servants in politics and national administration to further the very out-lawfulness which has made them prospered.

Fourth, under the Clintons in the 1990s, the Banking Act of 1933 was replaced by financial deregulation, which spread worldwide, making financiers masters of world trade.

Real Family Income Is Going Down. Real = Including CPI. If One Included Real Costs Beyond The CPI, The Real Income Would Collapse Even More. If I had Put On This Graph GDP or Trade, Both Of These Curves Would Be Shooting Up

Real Family Income Is Going Down. Real = Including CPI. If One Included Real Costs Beyond The CPI, The Real Income Would Collapse Even More. If I had Put On This Graph GDP or Trade, Both Of These Curves Would Be Shooting Up

One of my commenters and friends told me that it is president Carter, a democrat, who had started the degeneracy we presently enjoy. I was surprised, and initially denied. However, I looked and various graphs, and, to my dismay, he turned out to be right. As I learn more about what happened, I will integrate it in my discourse (Carter, of course, attacked, secretly, Afghanistan on July 3, 1979, so he was not highly considered here; but now he is heading evwen lower!)

In other words, we are engaged in a nonlinear process: the global trade outlaws are getting ever more powerful, and, the more powerful they get, the more they advance their plots and breathing together (con-spirare, conspiracies),

Meanwhile, We The People, are getting ever more destitute (the CPI, the Consumer Price Index, does not include LIFE ESSENTIALS such as education, health care, retirement).

Let me give you an example of the degeneracy of US society: I had an insurance agent for two decades, who worked at one of the most prestigious insurance companies in the USA. Last Spring he got sick. Although a well paid professional, he did not get health care in a timely manner. So he died of pneumonia. He was in his forties (basically the age when one gets sick the less). I know dozens of similar stories. Meanwhile, US healthcare is 50% more expensive, per head, than health care in the most performing healthcare systems in the world.

What does that have to do with the globalization of trade? Massive globalization led to massive plutocratization, and that, in turn, led to US politicians and civil servants doing exactly what plutocrats and their corporations wanted them to do (so that politicians and civil servant would make their future income up, as the good agents of plutocracy whom they are).

 Then the one who led us for 40 years, the one who makes more than 200,000 dollars in an hour, giving secret talks to financiers, claims to represent We The People. We The People are earning 10,000 times less (2,000 x 4.5) than she does, per hour. How can she represent, or even understand, us? Is that realistic? No wonder some of us want to protect themselves.

Paul Krugman, the architect, under president Ronald Reagan of “free” trade, presents as self obvious that Sanders’ program is “unrealistic”. Says Krugman: “The Sanders win defied all the polls, and nobody really knows why. But a widespread guess is that his attacks on trade agreements resonated with a broader audience than his attacks on Wall Street; and this message was especially powerful in Michigan, the former auto superpower. And while I hate attempts to claim symmetry between the parties — Trump is trying to become America’s Mussolini, Sanders at worst America’s Michael Foot — Trump has been tilling some of the same ground. So here’s the question: is the backlash against globalization finally getting real political traction?”

Well, I tell you why, Paul: We The People are getting tired of ‘the conscience of a liberal” who got to work engineering Ronald Reagan’s sinister plot to claim that giving to the rich was the best way to give to the poor. Krugie boy is on his best defending his position at the altar of “power”:

Paul Krugman: “The truth is that if Sanders were to make it to the White House, he would find it very hard to do anything much about globalization — not because it’s technically or economically impossible, but because the moment he looked into actually tearing up existing trade agreements the diplomatic, foreign-policy costs would be overwhelmingly obvious. In this, as in many other things, Sanders currently benefits from the luxury of irresponsibility: he’s never been anywhere close to the levers of power, so he could take principled-sounding but arguably feckless stances in a way that Clinton couldn’t and can’t.” 

That’s obviously a ridiculous thing to say: the USA has basically to get accord from just one power, the French Republic, which is all for putting the brakes on soul-less globalization (always has been, for about a century, whether governments are from the so-called right, or left). Then, automatically Germany, Italy and Spain (with, or without a government), will follow. Tax cheats such as Great Britain, Belgium and the Netherlands are going to increasingly feel the whip, and better shut up. (A few days ago, France told Britain that she would open the refugee gates, if Britain left the EU. So Britain is going to have to face unexpected costs, in all ways.)

The World  Trade Organization, prodded by France, already announced that a carbon tax, imposed worldwide, was NOT in violation of WTO rules. So one can start with that, on day one. See what it does for the price of Chinese steel and Chinese solar panels.

In all justice to Krugman, he finishes this way: …”the elite case for ever-freer trade is largely a scam, which voters probably sense even if they don’t know exactly what form it’s taking.

Ripping up the trade agreements we already have would, again, be a mess, and I would say that Sanders is engaged in a bit of a scam himself in even hinting that he could do such a thing. Trump might actually do it, but only as part of a reign of destruction on many fronts.

But it is fair to say that the case for more trade agreements — including TPP, which hasn’t happened yet — is very, very weak. And if a progressive makes it to the White House, she should devote no political capital whatsoever to such things.”

It is a huge “if”. I would be astounded if Clinton made it to the presidency.

After decades of increasingly corrupt, venal, lying politicians whose idea of policy is to do what the world’s richest corporations and their plutocrats want them to do, what could be worse?

Having someone reigning again who got paid a fortune repeatedly for plotting in secret talks with financiers what would be the next move to enrich that elite? Under Bill Clinton, the Banking Act of 1933 was destroyed, bringing the reign of unrestrained finance. Moreover global trade treaties got signed, which allow corporations and their corporations to escape taxation and legislation. How electing Trump or Sanders could make it worse?

When Clinton was asked why she accepted so much money from Goldman Sachs, for so little “work”she replied: “I guess that’s their rate!” She refused to release any transcript to the flood of talks she gave to financial conspirators and outlaws. And you know what? Thanks to the stubborn work of individuals such as yours truly, this sort of rotten mentality is now exposed, and nobody wants to be led by it anymore. Not even the people supporting Ted Cruz.

Paul Krugman’s dream of another cabinet job, 35 years after the one he enjoyed with his boss, Reagan, is fading away…

Patrice Ayme’

FREE TRADE FALLACY

March 7, 2016

We have just one civilization today: everybody, among common folks know what everybody else thinks. Yet, as resources previously used, such as fossil fuels, falter, civilization and the understanding of the universe which makes it possible in its present state, have to progress (not enough scientific and technological progress as needed, was the proximal cause of Rome’s failure). So it is crucial that really new, and correct, ideas be introduced (and not just in science).

If Those Are Best Friends Who, What Is The Enemy? Cockroaches? Those Among We The People Who Are Viewed As Cockroaches?

If Those Are Best Friends Who, What Is The Enemy? Cockroaches? Those Among We The People Who Are Viewed As Cockroaches?

Yes even countries such as Saudi Arabia are part of this global civilization. And Saudi Arabia is fully part of the debate of what civilization means, and what it will have to consist of, looking forward. Watch France give the Legion d’Honneur to the heir of Saudi Arabia, and its Interior Minister, arguably the principal ideologue of the hardening of the Saudi line, inside out. So, in other words, while France fights the Islamist State (“Daesh”), France gives the nod to the hardening of the Wahhabist doctrine of Saudi Arabia (which, historically, was very minor in Islam), the ideology of ISIL. The results are increasingly strange: Salafist/Wahhabist terrorists attacked police and soldiers in Tunisia today. The security forces fought back. The coordinated assaults were shown, live, on the Internet. One could see young passersbys applauding the security forces in full combat (at least 28 terrorists got killed, plus seventeen fighting police and civilians who applauded the police).

Such contradictions are rife, all over the world. Look at “free trade”.

Globalization Of Trade Without Globalization Of Law Results In Plutocratization. This Is Exactly What Happened To The Roman Republic, & Why It Faltered

Globalization Of Trade Without Globalization Of Law Results In Plutocratization. This Is Exactly What Happened To The Roman Republic, & Why It Faltered

Free trade, well done, is indeed excellent. However, the West has been exporting science, technology and know-how, while not investing in a way commensurate to making this sort of export sustainable.

In other words, here is civilization’s problem: the learning, teaching, and research functions have been starved, relative to what the (critical) situation requires.

The result has been a collapse of manufacturing and related high worth employment in the countries who recently led progress in science and understanding (with the result that, like Republican Rome, the knowledge and wisdom of the most advanced countries is increasing faltering relatively to the flow of new ideas which civilization need to survive).

To make matters worse, said “free trade” has happened in the shadows. So-called high-tech companies have made fortunes, while paying no taxes: France just hit Google with a 1.6 billion Euro tax bill. Such companies and their principal owners had found ways to escape most taxes, thus starving the governments, hence the fundamental research their trade rests on.

So free trade can work, but only if it’s fair. As it is, most money flows are hidden (in so-called “Dark Money” and “Dark Pools”), and the owners are also hidden (thus escaping taxation and corruption charges, not just against them, but also against the politicians they influence).

Last week European Commissioners were caught promising ExxonMobil that the Transatlantic Trade Pact under negotiation with Obama would allow companies such as ExxonMobil to escape local legislation, including labor, taxation and pollution laws.

So the Republicans may be lunatics. But, in a world already ruled by lunatics, they are no doubt welcome.

Fair, just, and profitable  international trade requires a registry of all ownership and detailed trading activity, worldwide. Otherwise the sort of Republic we enjoy worldwide (as institutionalized by the United Nations) will know the same fate as the Roman Republic: an increasing sinking in the turbid waters of mindless will to power and tyranny.

Patrice Ayme’

[P/S: A shorter, trade only version of the preceding essay was selected as a New York Times’ “Pick”. Since I have complained stridently about NYT’s censorship, I have to be fair and to recognize appreciation too!]

NASA’s Antarctic Interpretational Error

March 6, 2016

NASA observed a gain of altitude of much of Antarctica. From there NASA scientists deduced that Antarctica was gaining ice and snow. Unfortunately, as they admit, this leads them to predict that there is an unknown, massive cause of Sea Level Rise (SLR). The advantage is that this hypothesis makes nice with NASA’s sponsors (fossil fuels loving Republicans controlling Congress and the Supreme Court of the US). The disadvantage is that all SLR contributing factors have been accounted for, but one. And that one, NASA just denied, that it could possibly exist.

However, there is another interpretation differing vastly from the one NASA scientists made: Antarctica is gaining ice, snow, and… WATER. NASA did not see the water. How could it? Back to preschool: the water is below, the ice on top. See? The water is below, thus sight unseen. The ice is actually floating up. But that does not mean it’s not there. Actually the NASA map itself shows where the water is coming in. It’s not because one does not see something that one should not consider it. Progress in thinking is always achieved ONLY by considering what one has not considered before. So it’s always an exercise in atonement.

Water Sneaking Below The Ice: This Is The One Factor That Will Dominate Sea Level Rise, If It Does Not Already Do So

Water Sneaking Below The Ice: This Is The One Factor That Will Dominate Sea Level Rise, If It Does Not Already Do So

Of course such an explanation is valid only when there is water laying below the ice. But this is actually much of Antarctica, already. In some places, water goes below ice shelves, by 800 kilometers (500 miles). Much of the solid continent has lakes below the ice.

NASA’s Altitude Accumulation Map Shows Where Water Penetration Already Occurs

NASA’s Altitude Accumulation Map Shows Where Water Penetration Already Occurs

When NASA looks at this map, it claims that Antarctica is gathering snow. Indeed, globally, it is: warmer air carries more water, so, the warmer the air, the more it snows… until all turns to rain! This is why there are tropical downpours. This was fully expected by those, who, like me, believe in catastrophic temperature, and sea level, rise.

So NASA blares gigantic titles, to make its sponsors feel good about themselves, and thus expecting their gratitude: NASA Study: Mass Gains of Antarctic Ice Sheet Greater than Losses. In truth, all what NASA saw was:  NASA study: ALTITUDE Gains of Antarctic Ice Sheet Greater than Losses. Altitude is not mass. Oops!

However, the NASA map clearly shows something OMINOUS is going on. Antarctica is quite a bit like the space shuttle Columbia warmed by the hot fluid during its final re-entry in the Earth atmosphere. All the area in grey, green and a fortiori blue are losing altitude. They are not anymore north, or warmer: it is that water is sneaking in below, melting the ice which then contracts. Hence the loss of altitude, because ice occupies (roughly) ten percent more volume than water of the same mass.

So NASA’s map shows, at a glance, that around 10% of Antarctica is undermined by water (or then is in a zone of thinning due to accelerated flow, caused by underlining water, or proximity of underlying water accelerating and thining glacial flow).

But this is not all: the areas undermined and sinking, thus invaded by water below, are the gateways of the West Antarctic Ice Shield (WAIS), the Wilkes Basin, and the Aurora Basin.

WAIS is 1.97 x 10^6 square kilometers in area (a fifth of the area of the USA, Canada, or China). The ice sheet is more than 2,000 meters thick in many parts, and its icy belly rests 2555 meters below sea level, directly on the rock at its lowest (more than a mile and a half). If warm water got there, the WAIS, or portions thereof, would quickly disintegrate.

Remember the wing on Space Shuttle Columbia? Hot gases penetrated in one gap in the front of the wing, and then went all over inside, disintegrating the innards. Antarctica has at least a dozen similar holes, through which HOT WATER is sneaking in. Under the Totten glacier, the narrow gateway to the giant Aurora Ice Basin, hot water has already penetrated hundreds of kilometers.

More generally, this error of NASA, brings the question of what the scientific method is. One make a theory, and then one finds out whether the theory fits the fact better. If it does, it’s viewed as true (meaning more true). Depending how the new theory fits better and differs more, the difference between the new and the old theory can be viewed as the difference between “truth” and “error”.

That water is coming up below the ice explains SLR. NASA’s theory does not. This makes my theory experimentally superior to NASA. This is traditional evaluation of the correctness of one scientific theory relative to another.

However, there is more. I claim that when comparing scientific theories, one cannot just judge if one theory fits the known facts better.

An example is the theory of glaciations. It was started by a Frenchman in the early Nineteenth Century. The key observation was that huge continents are bunched around the North Pole, so their insolation is sensitive to Earth’s orbital elements.

The theory was launched by Joseph Alphonse Adhémar (1797–1862), a French mathematician. He published this fundamental idea in 1842, in his book Revolutions of the Sea.[1] It took 160 years, and sophisticated computers to check that the theory was right.

So what was the difference? The idea. A new complexity. Adhémar introduced the completely new idea, that astronomical forces changed earth’s climate. It was a new dimension of complexity (at the time scientists, including Goethe, had just uncovered the existence of past extensive glaciations).

The difference between an erroneous, obsolete theory and a better one is often an addition of logical dimension(s). Thus Einstein’s “General Relativity” predicted a faster precession of the perihelion of Mercury, because time slows down closer to the massive sun. This was the introduction of a new element of complexity: classical mechanics, but with VARIABLE time.

Similarly, my theory on Antarctica introduces a new element: water. That element not considered by NASA adds a logical dimension. That makes my theory more sophisticated. When comparing theories, one has to compare not just their experimental predictions, but their logical sophistication.

Patrice Ayme’


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Dogs are animals of integrity. We have much to learn from them.

ianmillerblog

Smile! You’re at the best WordPress.com site ever

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Military and general security

RobertLovesPi.net

Polyhedra, tessellations, and more.

How to Be a Stoic

an evolving guide to practical Stoicism for the 21st century

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Writer, Editor, Berliner

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in truth, only atoms and the void

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GrrrGraphics on WordPress

www.grrrgraphics.com

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The intersection of physics, optics, history and pulp fiction

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because all (Western) philosophy consists of a series of footnotes to Plato

Patrice Ayme's Thoughts

Striving For Ever Better Thinking. Humanism Is Intelligence Unleashed. From Intelligence All Ways, Instincts & Values Flow, Even Happiness. History and Science Teach Us Not Just Humility, But Power, Smarts, And The Ways We Should Embrace. Naturam Primum Cognoscere Rerum

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Dogs are animals of integrity. We have much to learn from them.

ianmillerblog

Smile! You’re at the best WordPress.com site ever

Defense Issues

Military and general security

RobertLovesPi.net

Polyhedra, tessellations, and more.

How to Be a Stoic

an evolving guide to practical Stoicism for the 21st century

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Writer, Editor, Berliner