Doomsday World

The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists came out with its own little piece of anti-Trump propaganda, advancing its famous clock (the committees behind the Bulletin is full establishment, full of Nobel Laureates, etc.)

This is a Doomsday world. The fact that thousands of thermonuclear warheads can be “launched on warning” by a burned out computer chip, has a lot to do with it. The CO2 catastrophe is another.

Obama did nothing about “Launch On Warning” (LOW; my acronym). He did not even try to make it an issue. Given enough time, LOW will kill us all, from a sheer accident.

Trump should be encouraged to do something about LOW..

The French discontinued LOW. The Chinese are moving towards LOW.

Trump should make a deal with Putin: no more LOW. The nuclear subs are deterrent enough. They are deep in the water, they can lurk for months, undetected, LOW is not a consideration with them.

We now have a trigger for thermonuclear war: Prince Kim of North Korea, who killed many around him in  atrocious, albeit picturesque, ways, has little choice, but keep on doing what he does best.

Megalopolis Destroying Man Made Sun

Megalopolis Destroying Man Made Sun

France and the US use missiles with “buses” which can target independently up to ten 250 kilotons independently maneuvering thermonuclear warheads (accompanied with lures and decoys). One such missile could kill up to 35 million people. They can’t be recalled. Undetectable French and American nuclear submarines carry up to 16 such missiles (the UK has bought 4 now aging such subs from the US; France makes its own, mot modern of them all).

Such a bomb equals one million tons of TNT. The bomb weighs 1000 pounds. It does not cost much to make: around a million dollars, once one has the Plutonium for the “pit”.  

Most nuclear weapons exploded in an attack on the U.S. will be “air” bursts high up, so that the blast overpressure will be spread out over a large areas, and start fires. The fireball is initially 50 million degrees Centigrades. Ten seconds after detonation the fireball is one mile across  and cools to 11 million degrees Centigrades (around 2,000, two-thousand, times the temperature of the surface of the Sun, Sol).

Four miles from detonation, winds reaches around 300 km/h (180 miles per hour). All standard houses and buildings “implode” from the overpressure wave, which is three times stronger than what is needed to crush a house, and then are swept away with the blast winds. At 7 kilometers distance, all ear drums are broken by the overpressure wave.

The “flash” of the explosion lasts 22 seconds. People 10 miles away receive 2nd degree burns, the winds reach hurricane force, shatter windows, and glass slivers will penetrate human flesh. Stay away from windows. At 80 kilometers, the fireball is brighter than the Sun.

Such weapons are in theory restricted to the fiver permanent members of the United Nations Security Council. It’s a long story which started in January 1938, when the French Republic, faced with Hitler, and knowing, from Nobel Irene Curie, that nuclear explosions were possible, started a nuclear weapon program, which four years later migrated to… Manhattan.

North Korea’s very young, Western educated Kim has nothing to lose. if his choice is between being eaten, alive, by dogs, as he did to his uncle, and starting a nuclear confrontation, he will choose the latter. Unfortunately, some higher-ups in China has found Mr. Kim to be useful for a sort of Machiavellian blackmail. That’s a bad combination, all the more as Xi, China’s dictator, has decided to invade the sea between many other powers which are not China, south of China (the unfortunately named “South China Sea”).

In this context, to pretend that Mr. Trump is, all by himself, a problem, when all that’s in place are Obama, and preceding presidents’ policies, is disingenuous. Mr. Trump should be encouraged to take the correct positions, not berated for policies he did not start, and may well try to discontinue.

For example the hyper expensive expansion of the US nuclear arsenal was launched, as a law, by Obama, not Trump. Accusing Trump of it, is a lie.

Trump, after being asked by some interviewer called David if measures against Islamists would make Muslims angry: “Anger? There is plenty of anger right now. How can you have more?… The world is a mess. The world is as angry as it gets…. You think that’s going to cause a little more anger? The world is an angry place. All of this has happened: we went into Iraq. We should not have gone into Iraq. We should not have got out the way we got out The world is a total mess. The world is a mess, David.”

Not just that, but it’s a thermonuclear mess, increasingly. So Trump is wrong here: the world could get much angrier. As I have argued, one thermonuclear bomb over a Western city would probably end democracy (for starters).

It’s a funny logic, by the way, our Muslim friends tend to use: measures against “sick and demented Islamists” are taken to be measures against all Muslims… by Muslim organizations, thus identifying Islamists and average Muslims. Not a good slope to slip on. President Donald Trump’ judgment on Islamists  (to be broadcasted later today): “Evil…Sneaky, dirty rats, which are sick and demented, and we are going to win”

***

Western Impotence Has Classical Precedents, So We Know What Not To Do:

A civilization under attack by some who are ready to die, to destroy it, has to exterminate its aggressors. Or it dies. Or it just lays there, doing nothing, as army ants crawl all over it, and devour it.

Against the insane, reason itself contends in vain. But nukes work.

Rome, Occidental and Oriental collapsed from military defeats (against Germans, Muslims). So did Athens.

Pretending Trump is the Devil for things he did not do, is exactly the same mindset which attributed the Peace Nobel Prize to Obama, for things he never did. In one case, as in the other, the plutocratic media decides that those who serve it well are saints, and those who threaten it, evil.

Making us all stupid in the process, hence easily manipulated into abject submission…

Patrice Ayme’

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10 Responses to “Doomsday World”

  1. Marcio Bueno Says:

    Who has just sent many troops to Russian borders? This is the one to blame. The clock should be set further from midnight after Trump’s inauguration because now the chance of a conflict between the two most powerful nuclear countries is smaller.

    • Patrice Ayme Says:

      Well, indeed, this is a natural logic to deduce from what I considered: all in all, Launch On Warning is the greatest peril. I share your conclusion (and I am no friend of Putin!) Obama infuriated Putin, while, at the same time, inviting him in. That was more dangerous. BAS did not flinch when Putin put dangerous nuclear tipped short range missiles in Kaliningrad Oblast…

  2. Gloucon X Says:

    http://www.nucleardarkness.org/warconsequences/fivemilliontonsofsmoke/#with100

    Hi Patrice:

    I’ve been meaning to ask for your expertise on this. Apparently, scientific studies show that a even a small war with much smaller weapons than countries currently have would still doom the planet with a catastrophic nuclear winter. This means that even a small nuke power like Israel or Pakistan could extinguish the human species, does it not?

    Thanks.

    • Patrice Ayme Says:

      Thanks for your question. I don’t want to rain on your nuclear winter, but I think those who brandish nuclear winter made a mistake.

      Absolutely gigantic bombs were detonated in the past. The worst, Tsar Bomba destroyed structures 1,000 kilometers away. For a picture of Tsar Bomba and where Obama got his ideas about Pakistan:
      https://patriceayme.wordpress.com/2010/04/16/the-worst/

      Anyway, even the worst explosion did not have much of a durable effect on the stratosphere. The explosion of Tambora in early 19C created a local winter, for 100 hours… But that was a volcano. None of that with 15 megatons (US) and 50 megatons (USSR) bombs. The US one was resting on the ground:
      maximum fall-out, 2 kilometers crater, island annihilated, mushroom cloud of atoll debris going up 40 kilometers, …
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Castle_Bravo

      Even then, no nuclear winter to speak of…

      Unfortunately, the truth is worse than that: a nuclear war can be fought, and it does not have to be small… So my angle is quite different. I don’t believe that exploding thousands of H bombs would have a significant effect on the climate (so the nuclear winter hypothesis is false, IMNSHO…). It’s true Pinatubo, the volcano, lowered temps by .5 Centigrade, worldwide. But the damned volcano sent very fine particles at an incredible height. H bombs won’t do that.

      As I said, the truth is worse. One Triumphant class French sub is undetectable, with its jet propulsion.
      It carries 16 inter oceanic M51 missiles with ten MIRVs, each 150 kt (ten Hiroshima). One such missile could take out New York conurbation (pop 16 million). One, a single one, rogue sub of that class could basically kill half of the US, with a bit of luck…

      We know that during the Cubam Missile crisis, one admiral, who was there mostly by accident, stopped the commander of a sub and the political/communist officer to fire a nuclear armed torpedo at a US carrier…
      This means someone like Kim will be able to blackmail the US, within 5 years he basically announced for the New Year…

      As Trump said, it won’t happen. No need to see Hitler getting ready this time, better than last time. As it is the West, if Russia stays neutral, can easily defang the rest of the world nuclearly, now.

      If I were president, I would go see Putin, and have a frank discussion. US “INTELLECTUALS” misadvised big time Russia in the 1990s… This has to be straightened out, and the competiton with Russia should stop.

      The danger of nukes is that they are city killers, and the tech to stop them for sure does not really exist (lasers being the graal there… but of a power we don’t have yet…)

  3. Gmax Says:

    Could you please expand upon your skepticism about nuclear winter in your answer to Gloucon? Nuclear winter is a staple of the anti nuke left, not PC to deny it

    • Gloucon X Says:

      PC? I think it’s already too late for Patrice. We will see how far things go but I doubt she will ever be allowed back in the US due to her acceptance of the global warming “hoax”, which makes her essentially a secret agent for China in the new Trumpian America. American climate scientists will soon be put on show trials and sent to gulags as Chinese agents. The atmosphere itself is a leftist traitor, it continues to warm, blindly following the orders of its Chinese masters.

      Many of the assumptions for and against nuclearwinter are presented here on this page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter

      I pulled this off the wiki nuke-winter page because it was the study that I saw cited in a few news reports a couple of years ago. Note that Alan Robock is a lead IPCC scientist (nest of Chinese agents).

      In 2014, Michael J. Mills (at the US National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR), Owen B. Toon (of the original TTAPS team), Julia Lee-Taylor, and Alan Robock published “Multi-decadal global cooling and unprecedented ozone loss following a regional nuclear conflict” in the journal Earth’s Future. The authors used computational models developed by NCAR to simulate the climatic effects of a regional nuclear war in which 100 “small” (15 kt) weapons are detonated over cities. They concluded, in part, that

      global ozone losses of 20–50% over populated areas, levels unprecedented in human history, would accompany the coldest average surface temperatures in the last 1000 years. We calculate summer enhancements in UV indices of 30–80% over Mid-Latitudes, suggesting widespread damage to human health, agriculture, and terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Killing frosts would reduce growing seasons by 10–40 days per year for 5 years. Surface temperatures would be reduced for more than 25 years, due to thermal inertia and albedo effects in the ocean and expanded sea ice. The combined cooling and enhanced UV would put significant pressures on global food supplies and could trigger a global nuclear famine.

      • Patrice Ayme Says:

        Answered in separate comment to avoid nestling. I am delaying my essay on this until tomorrow…

      • Patrice Ayme Says:

        Patrice, by the way, is watching Sol set behind the Golden Gate. I also don’t believe that Trump is so incredibly stupid that he will miss on the built up connected to non-carbon economy and the carbon tax. The problem of Obama was different: he did what he was told to do, namely nothing.

        Of course, Trump has to seriate the problems, so I expect him to not rock the boat on carbon tax and sustainable economy. Fighting off over-regulations is more important: the situation there is abysmal.

        Cost of any serious industrial project in the last 30 years or so, tripled in France and the USA. Whereas in South Korea, they stayed the same. Conclusion: US and France don’t know how to make nuclear power plants anymore. Korea is capturing the worldwide nuclear market with numerous plants on time and money… This is important for climate…

  4. Patrice Ayme Says:

    Gmax, GlouconX: I had a reply ESSAY on this, at the ready. Castle Bravo was 15 Megatons (largest US H bomb). That’s 100 to 20 times typical H bombs US or France use.

    I will consult the reference Gloucon gave, to see if those references thought of my objections (which are very basic).

    As I have other things to do, it means the essay will be delayed to tomorrow. However, that’s an important subject, so it’s important to position one’s correctly at first. I never questioned much the nuclear winter hypothesis until you mentioned it actually.

    Basically they confuse volcanoes and H bombs.

    None of this means I advocate nuclear war, nota bene. Quite the opposite. It informs some of the reasoning recently held by some generals… Nuke explosions have been held directly above US soldiers, by the way… (fun and games of the 1950s…)

  5. Patrice Ayme Says:

    **
    Wikipedia Admits Implicitly That Nuclear Winter Is Bogus:
    If one reads in Wikipedia about nuclear winter, one sees this, to start with:
    “Nuclear winter is the severe global-climatic-cooling-effect, HYPOTHESIZED[1][2] to occur after the ignition of a number of firestorms.[3] Such fires, which can inject soot into the stratosphere have historically occurred in a number of cities, with nuclear winter researchers using both Hamburg and the LESS FEROCIOUS Hiroshima firestorms as the principal examples.[4] However, AS FIRESTORMS ARE MOST FREQUENTLY ENCOUNTERED IN MUCH LARGER AREA WILDFIRES, THESE LATTER FIRES ARE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TODAY in assessing both the initial and present-day “nuclear winter” computer models.”
    My point exactly.

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