Alarmism Saves Lives Better Than The Alternative, Sleeping At The Wheel. Climate Crisis Exploding Now

Faced with climatic Armageddon, deniers love to brandish irrelevances. Such as pretending there are no solutions… Or that none were presented, nor available. Something completely false: solutions could have been deployed 30 years ago, massively. Now the rise of cheap photovoltaics has made the hydrogen economy irresistible.

Consider:

TERMINAL GREENHOUSE CRISIS

A crash tech program is needed. It has to involve hydrogen.

And of course, one should use all possible solutions, simultaneously. American denial about climate in the Twentieth First Century is reminiscent of American denial when Nazism came around. As then, it was in the best interest of the US to make a bad situation worse: what nobody wants to say, and nobody dares say… except for those drunk on truth.  

No deliberate motion ever happened without emotion.

Global Earth temperatures with baseline. Sure starting to look like an exponential… A mathematical proof that “Global Warming” is starting to feed on itself (because the emissions have stalled). Source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies | Anomalies shown relative to the average temperature between 1951 and 1980…when quite a bit of warming had already occured! So the limit to 1.5 degree centigrade Climate Sheep gloat about is to be taken with a very large quantity of salt… There is evidence human engineered global warming started thanks to mass herding, more than 7,000 years ago, boosting the Methane in the air (cows make CH4… not rabbits).

On 28 March 1939, the Spanish Republic surrendered Madrid to the Fascists and Nazis. Franco’s army was transported from Morocco by the Nazi air force, fueled by Texaco. (Because the Navy was Republican.)

At that point, Britain saw the error of her way, and decided to join the French Republic in blocking the Nazis (and was added in the notes of the Franco-Polish treaty). However, all was quiet on the American front, as the Nazis’ racism fit well with US racism, and besides, Nazi Germany was a US business province. 

Now, right, for the US Deep Private-Public state, the situation was perfect and getting better. However, at the very least, US Jews should have got alarmed. And although US losses in World War Two were neglectable relative to some European countries and empires, they nevertheless amounted to one US citizen dead, out of 300.       

***

Now we are facing an incomparable calamity, the Sixth Mass Extinction… But it’s not viewed as such, because of the lack of alarm. The gentle words are supposed to evoke it:…”Global Warming” (why not global soothing, as we are at it?)

***

Alarmism saves lives. Had the USA declared war to the Nazis in June 1940, France would not have ceased fire, and, in the end, the deliberate massacre by the Nazis of dozens of millions of civilians and war prisoners, would not have happened (because the France would have advertised this massacre as a legitimate state… at worst, from North Africa). Also neither Italy, nor Japan would have entered war on the side of the Nazis (being scared of the USA, and now definitively knowing the USA was in the war). 

Alarmism saves lives. I am a mountaineer, and climber. Some of my best friends were top notch professional mountaineers, or climbers. A difference with me was my caution, due to my latent alarmism… In spite of my alarmism, I miraculously survived a giant rock avalanche, falling off a giant death gully, and then stopping my fall before yanking my partner out: even alarmism won’t protect from the hand of fate. In any case, my less cautious friends died, and, in one case at least I know I would not have made the mistake (I refuse to engage in possible slab avalanche terrain, once identified)

*** 

CLIMATE SCIENTISTS ARE NOT ALARMIST ENOUGH:

Scientists try to sound reasonable, and thus warn their ultimate paymasters, politicians, that temperatures will rise. But they are prudent, and don’t want to sound alarmist, so they eschew dangerous inputs they can’t predict, roll out averages. 

However, this is not what they should be doing. In aviation, or rocket science, engineers try to determine the  worst possible case… to avoid it. 

Climate scientists, when warning about possible climate evolutions, should consider the worst possible cases. They are not doing this presently.

What is the worst possible case? That the present warming will trigger natural heating mechanisms, and other disasters.

First, there are billions of tons of methane ice on the Siberian continental shelf, which is gigantic. At some point, when the ocean is warm enough, they will release. Methane is more than 25 times more entrapping to infrared than CO2.

Second, and worse, the CO2 going massively in the ocean, turns to carbonic acid and kills oxygen making plankton. That, in combination with increased oxidation will bring a decrease of the oxygen content of the atmosphere. Oxygen content is already collapsing in the ocean, to the point of creating “dead zones” which fishes such as marlins have to avoid, lest they die of asphyxiation. 

So this climate crisis is not just about “warming” something globally. What we are witnessing, and causing, is a mass extinction through a collapse of the biosphere, as happened last 65 millions years ago. It would be good if scientists said it straight, as it is… and evoke the worst possible case (increasing likely, as coal burning is augmenting in many countries)… Instead of pretending we are living in the best possible world, just as the Titanic passengers lived in the best possible ship… after it hit the iceberg, and everything worked just as well as it did minutes prior.  

We should use what I call “Catastrophic Calculus” to evaluate the climate Crisis… the same sort of calculus made when building rockets, or planes. It makes sense: Earth is our spaceship… And we have only one. Failure is not an option. Earth can’t burn, but it will, and it has started to do so, because the same clowns with the same reduced cognitivo emotional mindset, keep on ruling.

***

MORAL DERANGEMENT SYNDROME: Obsess About Red Herrings To Hide The Real Problems

Just contemplate criminal against humanity Nancy Pelosi claim that “Trump betrayed the nation”. Maybe Trump did, it’s very far from clear. What is clear, though, is that Pelosi betrayed humanity by enabling “George” to keep on lying about his pretext to invade Iraq… and thus foster his real aim, which was to destroy Iraq (as an oil producer). Those who take for granted that Pelosi didn’t betray humanity when plotting to destroy Iraq have much in common with those Germans for whom Hitler was morally elevating: they suffer terminal moral-cognitive disorder, refusing absolutely to inquire about a catastrophe they caused.

However, most “Democrats” consider that Pelosi is a moral figure, and she is the first to claim that elevated position. Yet, as she is “impeaching” Trump, she is doing nothing about the Mass Extinction out there. So Pelosi and her followers and admirers impose a value system where obsessing about one individual is incomparably more important than putting measures in place to mitigate what is going on, the entire planet burning.  

The inchoate maximal holocaust out there, this Mass Extinction, is, at this point, first of all, a moral failure. 

Patrice Ayme

 

16 Responses to “Alarmism Saves Lives Better Than The Alternative, Sleeping At The Wheel. Climate Crisis Exploding Now”

  1. Rich R Says:

    I’m confused. You seem to support Trump but believe in climate change.

    Please explain.

    On Thu, Jan 16, 2020 at 11:24 AM Patrice Ayme’s Thoughts wrote:

    > Patrice Ayme posted: “Faced with climatic Armageddon, deniers love to > brandish irrelevances. Such as pretending there are no solutions… Something > completely false: solutions could have been deployed 30 years ago, > massively. Now the rise of cheap photovoltaics has made the hydr” >

    Like

    • Patrice Ayme Says:

      Hi Rich:
      I spent decades explaining myself, writing millions of words. To get explanations you can do this: you google “Patrice Ayme X”… where X is whatever you want to know.
      I don’t just believe in Climate Change”. Trump always believed in that… He just called it an hoax for fun, obviously….
      I believe in running out of oxygen:
      https://patriceayme.wordpress.com/2017/04/05/running-out-of-oxygen-culture-of-greater-inquiry-vs-culture-of-greater-idiocy/

      Everybody but complete idiots who can’t read a graph, even Trump believes in climate change, because change has happened.

      January 2020:
      https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-admits-climate-change-is-not-a-hoax-after-proposing-rollback-of-environmental-law
      “President Trump said during a White House briefing on Thursday that he is a “big believer” in climate change and that it is “not a hoax” soon after his administration announced a plan to overhaul an environmental policy act. When asked by a White House pool reporter if he believes climate change is a hoax, the president said, “No, no. Not at all. Nothing’s a hoax. Nothing’s a hoax about that. It’s a very serious subject. I want clean air. I want clean water.” He then claimed, “The environment is very important to me. Somebody wrote a book that I’m an environmentalist called The Environmentalist… I’ll bring it to my next news conference, perhaps. I’m sure you’ll report all about it.””

      Like

    • Patrice Ayme Says:

      “Support”, “Believe”… For most people opinion seems to be a sort of religion… So people are either for or against Trump, Climate, etc. Such is the royal road to unfathomable stupidity.

      Like

  2. Anonymous Says:

    Trump “called it a hoax for fun”. Everything he says or does is just for fun, isn’t it? Fun for his family and for all the other plutocrats who got those massive tax cuts he passed. Reducing the estate tax on billionaires. Great fun!

    Like

    • Patrice Ayme Says:

      Trump was not born yesterday, and he says lots of things just to get votes. Obviously.
      Could you specify about reducing estate tax on billionaires?
      And also massive tax cuts for billionaires?
      As far as I know billionaires were already not paying much tax…
      So far stats show greater augmentation of low income people…
      The main problem right now is homelessness, and the great cause of that, NIMBYism. Nothing to do with Trump. Bloomberg will soon spend more than all other candidates together (including the Donald) Styer spent 3 times what Trump spent, all from his coal money… Not cool, coal…

      Like

  3. EugenR Says:

    The today’s prevailing economic system demands, continuous economic growth, as high as possible. This need is imposed on the economy by the existing financial system, based on debts, that needs to generate interest and yields on investments. Economic growth means environmental catastrophe.
    Population growth, mainly in the underdeveloped regions, where customs influenced by organised and state religion prevent any kind of family planning.
    Worldwide opposition to abandoning and forbidding meat eating, produced either on open pastures or in intensified barns, where they are fed by crops produced intensively on large farm lands.
    Opposition to abandon the traditional food components, grown on agricultural fields, to indore, intensive food production of crops, that would reduce the agricultural fields, and let nature take them back. This would reduce the use of pesticides and fertilizers, enlarge the forests, and with it also the biodiversity.
    There is a lot of talk about the change of transportation and energy production, but very little is done. It’s enough to see the inefficient private cars still dominating the cities and roads, most of the time in traffic jams, to understand, how little is done.
    And above all, nobody spoke about the real problem, the POLITICS, that says: While all the environmental problems are global, politics is local. While all the environmental problems are long term, the politics is short term.

    Like

    • Patrice Ayme Says:

      Dear Eugen: nice to see you back commenting on this site!
      Some sort of economic growth will trigger catastrophe, right… and the sort growth financial institutions have tended to push… such as FOSSIL FUELS. One major bank recently invested 57 billion in fossil fuel… Just one bank, a few years…
      Black Rock just announced they would become more ecologically responsible: it’s the world’s largest investment vehicle at this point (I think) with 7 (seven) trillion dollars invested… (1/3 of US yearly GDP).

      I would agree, though, that MASSIVE INVESTMENT IS NEEDED to cope with the climate disaster out there…

      Also I think I read agricultural productivity quintupled over the last 60 years (in the most favored and favorable areas). There is no doubt most plants can be grown hydroponically, augmenting productivity enormously… As you say, “indoors”. But that requires INVESTMENT. I envision 200 stories towers, a kilometer high, with their own energy self-sufficiency, their own hydroponic agriculture, etc.

      Well we need to change the very way politics exists. Debate should be more central, instead of the fascist piling up of power onto an oligarchy.

      Like

      • EugenR Says:

        We agree almost on everything, definitely on the environment issues. I try to work on those who disagree. It seems almost an impossible mission.

        Like

        • Patrice Ayme Says:

          I would like to know what we disagree on. With most intelligent people, I found out the disagreements are more superficial than real. Anyway, take your best shot, don’t be afraid to embarrass me. My greatest embarrassment was to go all out to foster Obama, long ago. I got weaponized, instrumentalized, used, abused and ever since full of ressentiment (to use Nietzsche’s concept, straight borrowed from French civilization…)…

          We learn from debate. Something the “cancel” and “woke” “snowflakes” “gang and squads” of tribal idiots out there should get to know, lest they keep on working for whom they loudly claim to oppose…

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          • EugenR Says:

            Yes Obama was a big disappointment. Trump is direct reaction to his failure. The intelligence lost faith in politics, became apathetic and didn’t go to ballots. Hillary could be only worse than Obama, so why to vote? But Trump is not only failure, he is dangerous. And maybe here we disagree.
            The US politics has to cope with 3 major problems.
            The first is a global problem, the environment. As i said politics is local, nobody cares, and Trump’s policy is even worse than Obama’s. The solution is easy, taxation on negative ecological footprint activities, like fuel, meat, waist of food, change wrap system. Better sell without wrap, like in old times. No wraps no advertisements, that are more about disinformation than information.
            The second problem is public education. Solving the problem needs to channel public resources into education. It has to be a long term process, and the results will appear maybe within 20 years. Again, the problem is long term and the politics is short term. By the way, i remember, in Israeli government started to speak about startup hubs in early eighties. When 1 million Russian emigrants, most of them academics, immigrated to Israel at 1990, they were ready. The first results came 15 years later.
            The third is under invested public services and infrastructure. Have you lately try train from N.Y. to Washington? The train is a museum piece. Running at average speed of 50 miles.
            Health care system is also disastrous, but it will not delude the US position in the world. Education, environment, public services yes.
            To make America great again, US has to increase taxation of the private sector that is over invested, and subsidise the public services, that is relatively neglected.

            Like

          • Patrice Ayme Says:

            Agreeing wit you. We certainly were WAY better off with Trump than Clinton.
            Now, I am not a hater. I actually suggested both Biden and Clinton to Obama… Because I thought, naively, they would try their best to be on the mend, renounce their Plutocratic ways… Instead the exact opposite happened: they doubled up on the Dark Side.
            Trump’s work against global plutocracy has been significant.
            The IP problem has been crucial. I was, I am on the front line in IP, like totally in the center… All this stealing of top IP to China has been sickening. I have several friends who became, are becoming, WEALTHY (Silicon Valley wealthy) from it… At least Trump has started to crack down. Obama was going the other way, and the thieving professors knew it…

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          • Patrice Ayme Says:

            On ecology, Trump sounds terrible, and Obama sounded great. In truth, Obama was terrible, and it’s too early to know whether Trump is really terrible, or just ineffectually posing that way. What’s sure is that he has started to fund high tech again, and that’s indispensable and good.

            Yeah, he is not for a carbon tax, Trump. But neither is Sanders… Trump sings for coal: “Sieg! Coal!”… but he is doing nothing much about it…. whereas Obama did everything for fracking… Headlines are different from real lines…

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          • Patrice Ayme Says:

            There is a philosophical problem about education, and I am in the thick of it. Basically, propaganda is preferred to truth and power.
            Infrastructure is being blocked by so-called “Democrats”. Trump is trying to ram new laws to do away with all the blockages for infrastructure, which are so ridiculous the pluto, gold plated heir of California, governor Newsom, declared the high speed train couldn’t be built… Trump then asked for the Federal money back!

            The real progress problem, the reason why progress can’t be achieved, right now is that “Democrats” are anything but.

            The impeachment is a farce just made to get Biden elected, and to delay passing the progressive laws Trump lined up or proposed…

            Like

  4. Kevin Berger Says:

    “The inchoate maximal holocaust out there, this Mass Extinction, is, first of all, a moral failure.”

    Kevin Berger: No, it is a logical consequence, morality has nothing to do with it; have a civilization of the frontier (since 1815, for all purposes, and since 1945 for its cancerous version), get the consequences of a civilization of the frontier, the frog and the scorpion, all that.

    Like

    • Patrice Ayme Says:

      OK, I will modify into:
      “The inchoate maximal holocaust out there, this Mass Extinction, is, at this point, first of all, a moral failure.”

      I was using the fundamental definition of morality… What is sustainable… But it’s true present day planners, and even common people should know, or guess, that hundreds of millions will die… Also the biosphere as we know it… plus decreasing O2….

      Like

  5. hazxan Says:

    I’ve been an environmentalist for decades. I worked in that field (hah!) in the 1980’s, have planted more trees and improved more environments than 99% of the population.

    Though it never occurred to me to accuse the Russians of “stealing my childhood”, even though back then, our childhoods were ruled by the very real knowledge of the nuclear bombs aimed at us that we were told would kill us in 4 minutes.

    I always believed in climate change, absorbed every media article on it. Until the last year or two when the tone started to get hysterical. And what I was reading was clearly untrue, hyped to the max. Every day, whatever the weather the media scream that “its’ climate change”. I believed it too. Until it got too much and I realised that in my experience, the UK climate is much the same as it’s been for my entire life. Only what used to be “a hot summers day” is “climate change”. What used to be “a cold winter spell” is “climate change” . Heavy rain? Drought? It’s all climate change!

    I actually read up a bit on the science, rather than the media reporting of it, and was shocked how flimsy much of it was. Data sets “adjusted” to get the “expected result”. Models that are continually adjusted because the regularly fail.

    And then we have those long term predictions that have all failed. “UK to not see snow by 2020”. “London to have the climate of Madrid by 2025”. “UK to be arctic tundra by 2020”. “Maldives under water by 2015”. Dozens of them, always wrong.

    The symptons of Apocalyptic cults are there. Whatever happens, they see the signs of the immenent Apocalypse. They have the Sacred Scriptures that can not be challenged.

    The other aspect is the realisation that trillions of dollars is being invested in climate change. It is no longer just the fossil fuel companies pumping out the propaganda, both sides are doing it. The promise of all that money appears to have tainted the environmental movement as I knew it. XR and Thunberg are not grass roots movements, they were started with money from “green investment” backers. As usual the Plutocracy has money on both sides. Fossil fuel companies are investing in electric cars. Coal power stations are converted to burn wood (with tax payer grants). Forests are chopped down in the Americas and the wood shipped to Europe to burn and be marketed as “green energy” which is a lie yet people fall for it because they want to take some moral high ground. “I pay more for green energy”.

    Don’t get me wrong, I do believe industry is affecting the climate. Only much less than we are led to believe. I believe that other things pollution and environmental destruction are of far more serious concern “right now”, not as predicted by a flawed model.I believe that the average person knows nothing about agriculture and how their food arrives to their table. They do not realise that the proposed measures will harm them more than any theoretical climate change.

    There’s more of course but I’ve gone on long enough! What I will say is that my “Climate Centrist” attitude is not the result of ignorance, it is the result of learning more about the issue. It is the result of more information, I was actually ignorant of many issues for the decades I was a true believer.

    My feeling is that over the next few years, climate alarmism is going to fade away when reality does not “follow the models”. We live in interesting times!

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