Australia As We Knew It, Is Gone

There is a world catastrophe going on. We started it. This is the greatest threat to the biosphere in 66 million years. “Climate Change” media call it, because they want to please the fossil fuel financial plutocracy which is smothering the planet. However, the climate is changing to the Jurassic… in a few decades (instead of millions of years). Species don’t have the time to adapt…. Except the real small ones, the viruses, bacteria, and countless parasites which kill trees by the billions. 

So how is this “climate change” going to manifest itself? Well, the first thing is that ALL the temperate forests are going to deperish, die and burn, roaring from winds as never imagined before. This just happened in Australia and Corsica: air tankers couldn’t fly. All this enormous burning will not just augment CO2, it will decrease oxygen. Already oxygen has disappeared from giant swathes of the ocean. At any time, the unstable methane ice on the Siberian continental shelf could erupt: there is more of it than all other fossil fuels.

So what are Australians doing? Getting wealthy by using and selling coal, to China, Japan, etc. Australians, per capita, per year, emit from usage or export, 80 tons of CO2. France’s, and the world average, is five (5) tons, 16 times less. Australia is hoisted on its own petard, and it burns.  

So, let me repeat to be very clear: this is not a question of “change”. This is a question of holocaust (= whole-burn), the greatest holocaust of the biosphere in 66 million years. And it’s not just plants and animals which will die en masse… 

Patrice Ayme

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Lake Conjola, a seaside resort east of the capital Canberra. People had to flee into the sea, 89 houses burned. New Year Eve, Dec 31, 2019.

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Let’s one chuckle, California, where the drought got re-started in 2020, is next…

The preceding was, word for word, a comment of mine sent to the NYT. My comment was censored (= barred from publication). Why? Same old, same old… Although my subscription costs is hundreds of dollars a year, and just went up, because the Times told me, it was searching for truth… The New York Times can’t have enough of blocking my comments… and stealing the ideas therein (what else? Didn’t like my, correct, usage of the word “holocaust? Or is it because I implied the media was cooperating with the fossil fuel + financial plutocracy conspiracy?) Here is the beginning of the New York Times article:

The End of Australia as We Know It
What many of us have witnessed this fire season feels alive and monstrous…

SYDNEY, Australia — In a country where there has always been more space than people, where the land and wildlife are cherished like a Picasso, nature is closing in. Fueled by climate change and the world’s refusal to address it, the fires that have burned across Australia are not just destroying lives, or turning forests as large as nations into ashen moonscapes.

They are also forcing Australians to imagine an entirely new way of life. When summer is feared. When air filters hum in homes that are bunkers, with kids kept indoors. When birdsong and the rustle of marsupials in the bush give way to an eerie, smoky silence.

“I am standing here a traveler from a new reality, a burning Australia,” Lynette Wallworth, an Australian filmmaker, told a crowd of international executives and politicians in Davos, Switzerland, last month. “What was feared and what was warned is no longer in our future, a topic for debate — it is here.”

“We have seen,” she added, “the unfolding wings of climate change.”

Like the fires, it’s a metaphor that lingers. What many of us have witnessed this fire season does feel alive, like a monstrous gathering force threatening to devour what we hold most dear on a continent that will grow only hotter, drier and more flammable as global temperatures rise.

It’s also a hint of what may be coming to a town, city or country near you.

And in a land usually associated with relaxed optimism, anxiety and trauma have taken hold. A recent Australia Institute survey found that 57 percent of Australians have been directly affected by the bush fires or their smoke. With officials in New South Wales announcing Thursday that heavy rain had helped them finally extinguish or control all the state’s fires that have raged this Australian summer, the country seems to be reflecting and wondering what comes next.

The present 2020 Australian PM, Scott Morrison became Prime Minister by holding a lump of coal in Parliament, arguing. to great approval of Australian political class, that it was time to burn even more coal. “NOTHING TO BE AFRAID OF, DON’T BE SCARED!”, he laughed around… Are this sort of people not just criminal against the biosphere, but also criminals against humanity?

Robyn Eckersley, a political scientist at the University of Melbourne who has written extensively about environmental policy around the world. “It does change everything — or it should… specifically, she said, the economy needs to change, not just moving away from fossil fuels, a major export, but also from thirsty crops like rice and cotton.

Building regulations will probably stiffen too, she said. Already, there are signs of growing interest in designs that offer protections from bush fires, and regulators are looking at whether commercial properties need to be made more fireproof as well.

The biggest shifts, however, may not be structural so much as cultural.

Climate change threatens heavy pillars of Australian identity: a life lived outdoors, an international role where the country “punches above its weight,” and an emphasis on egalitarianism that, according to some historians, is rooted in Australia’s settlement by convicts.

Since the fires started, tens of millions of acres have been incinerated in areas that are deeply connected to the national psyche.

… Smoke may be more of a catalyst than flame. For much of the summer, a fog of soot has smothered Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra. In Sydney alone, there were 81 days of hazardous, very poor or poor air quality last year, more than the previous 10 years combined. And until the recent rains, the smell of smoke often returned.

Mike Cannon-Brookes, Australia’s most famous tech billionaire, called it part of a broader awakening.

“It’s bringing home the viscerality of what science and scientists have been telling us is going to happen,” he said.

There’s unity in that, as so many have seen climate change up close and personal. But there’s also inequality. The air filters selling out at hardware stores last month cost close to $1,000 each.”

***

P/S: NYT published my comment above, well after this essay was published. By then, with a 24 hours delay, nobody read my comment, but NYT can claim I was not censored: Pluto mission accomplished!

 

 

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9 Responses to “Australia As We Knew It, Is Gone”

  1. benign Says:

    A brief inquiry into solar output cycles reveals that apparently the best models are no longer based on sun spots, but on the magnetic fields of the sun. Valentina Zharkova seems to have the best model here, which shows that solar irradiance has been increasing since the 1800s and is forecast to keep increasing for several hundred years. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-45584-3

    In addition to the 11 year solar cycle, there is a long term 350 year cycle that apparently bottomed with the Maunder Minimum.

    We’re toast, it would appear. It’s amazing that she has been able to publish.

    Patrice, comment? What do other physicists say about Zharkova’s work?

    Like

    • Patrice Ayme Says:

      Dear Benign: Just saw your comment. Thanks for pointing out to the article, I was NOT aware of it. Nature is the most prestigious journal (with Science). I used to subscribe to it (still with Science). I may restart…
      Now the max-min oscillation of the Sun have been known or suspected, for three centuries. This is more detail than ever. I knew we were facing a cooling in the next 30 years or so. We are lucky that way.
      Another thing is that the shutting down of the chlorofluorocarbons has considerably reduced the solar energy getting to the lower atmosphere…

      But then, it’s a bit alarming as heating has been exponentiating, in spite of these cooling mechanisms, indicating a nonlinear feedback of natural systems…

      Like

    • Patrice Ayme Says:

      From the 2011 Science mag article the drawing of Zharkova is representing as a spectacularly rising red line:

      Solar cycle activity maxima are separated by minima during which only a few or no sunspots are present on the solar surface and other indicators of solar activity are equally muted (see the figure, panel B). Minima have lasted typically 2 to 3 years in the 20th century. Consequently, as solar activity decreased to near-minimum levels in 2005–2006, most solar astronomers expected that the Sun would be bubbling with activity again by 2007 or 2008. However, the Sun did not restart displaying appreciable activity until 2010. Also, the rise in activity has been slow relative to most other cycles during the last century.

      Surprised by this unexpectedly long minimum, the solar physics community reacted in various ways. Interpretations ranged from a lull before the storm, with the next cycle to be particularly strong, to the beginning of a grand minimum, a multidecadal episode of almost nonexistent solar activity. Such a prolonged period of quiescence last occurred in the 17th century, when almost no sunspots were visible for around 60 years—the so-called Maunder minimum (2). Which, if any, of these scenarios is correct? In particular, are we heading for a grand minimum?

      Predictions of solar activity have been notoriously wayward in the past, with similar scatter of predicted behavior also true for the maximum of cycle 23, as little as 5 or 6 years before it was reached (1, 3). The best record is produced by empirical methods relying on precursors, but even they give reasonably accurate predictions of its maximum only after a cycle is well under way.

      To estimate the future of solar magnetic activity beyond the next cycle, we must therefore take guidance from its past. During the past 70 years or so, the Sun has been in a grand maximum, a period of strong activity cycles, which by chance coincided with the space age and the great variety of data that it has provided. In the 19th century, the cycle minima were similarly long and quiet as the one we have just left. Also, the slow start of the present cycle—cycle 24—suggests (according to a rule named after the Swiss solar physicist Max Waldmeier) that it will be relatively weak, peaking at a yearly averaged sunspot number value of 60 to 100 (1, 3), compared with 120 in cycle 23 and even larger values in four of the five cycles before that. There is similarity between the present cycle and the beginning of solar cycle 14 (see the figure, panel C). Cycle 14, the weakest cycle of the 20th century, peaked in 1905 at a yearly averaged sunspot number of 63.5. The sunspot number averaged over the first 9 months of 2011 is 45.5 (solid orange circle in panel B). Although this is low relative to the past nine cycles, it still exceeds 20, the amplitude of the two last cycles preceding the Maunder minimum (4). This speaks against, but does not rule out, a grand minimum starting within the next two decades.
      https://science.sciencemag.org/content/334/6058/916.full

      Like

    • Patrice Ayme Says:

      Zharkova seems to be just saying we are heading to great minimum, until 2055 CE… incredible good luck. It will be followed by a grand maximum if 2600 CE.

      Like

  2. Benign Says:

    Zharkova is basically saying that global warming is due to the Sun and it will continue

    Like

    • Gmax Says:

      Funny I read the article. Looks to me like it says the exact opposite. Anyway at this point only climate deniers believe warming is caused by sun and not anthropogenic

      Like

  3. benign Says:

    Estimates are that anthropogenic warming will offset the effects of the forecast grand solar minimum

    Like

  4. Gmax Says:

    According to Wall Street Journal solar photovoltaic is cheapER than anything else in India, even coal. RELIEF IS COMING FROM SUN

    Like

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