What Democracies Should To Do With COVID Right Now (April 1)

But this is not a joke…

Concentrate doctors from other provinces onto the province of Hubei enabled China to jugulate the epidemic. So concentrate doctors from unaffected states of the US into the most affected areas. This has to be done, in combination with very tough confinement to block the Coronavirus from exploding in these (so far) safer states… especially as many of their doctors will be sent away to save lives in tragic, severely affected places such as New York City!

In other words, learn from what worked in China, Korea, Hong Kong. To block the virus, one will need to test all, and track all the contacts of the COVIDs, then reinforce considerably the social distancing of these unfortunate souls (as in Singapore). Meanwhile, social confinement should be toughened up right away, precisely because that can be done right away (within hours). That means a much more restrictive notion of “essential services”.

The testing and tracking will take longer to roll out, especially in the most affected areas… Hence testing and tracking should be deployed, first, paradoxically, in the less affected areas, where it will be easier to deploy, and more crucial to deploy, as doctors will be sent away to deal with the most affected zones. 

Yes, all this is tough. But just aiming at flattening the curve will not work. Only trying to suppress the Coronavirus completely will work.

Beautifully Dreadful Exponentials, Or How Representative Democracy Failed

And remember, the reassuring mortality rate given is unsupported by hard evidence. This below is all the hard evidence we have. Speculating that 90% of the cases are undetected (thus lowering the death rate to 1.9%) is PURE SPECULATION. As Trump said, paraphrasing what he really meant:”I am trying to be optimistic, and thus make people calm, in this war. People need to be calm. However if I tried to be pessimistic, I could be more terrible than you reporters can possibly imagine…

CLOSED CASES: 220,459

Cases which had an outcome: 178,125 (81%)
Recovered / Discharged
DEATHS: 42,334 (19%)
Once again, this 19% is interpreted as less than 1%. That maybe true with a fully functional medical system, just as HIV is no problem with a fully functional immune system. But SARS2 attacks the medical system, just as HIV the immune system…
***

Felix Pepper, New Zealand @Patrice Ayme: Yes, yes, yes. These are the lessons of what needs to be done. 

It also needs to be done right now, and its not happening. The earlier the changes the bigger the beneficial effects down the road.

***

@Felix Pepper Agreed Felix, thanks. Why it’s not happening is a case of unreasoned belief in the inherent superiority of the “Representative Democracy” system too much by half. All too many “Westerners” feel superior, from their concept of freedom, to all these Asians who, presumably, are perceived as being dismissive of democracy, just because they don’t enjoy the same time-honored vision of freedom at all and any cost. 

However, the cost benefit analysis has not been made as carefully as it should have been made, should one cling to the highest ethics: is the freedom of NOT tracking the viral infection worth hundreds of thousands dead, and as many with scarred lungs and other chronic ailments? This is the choice Europe and the US have made so far, for all to see. Thus this cultural racism may exact an unbearable price for those who hold it. Precisely because it’s unbearable, it is futile. Indeed, in the end,testing, tracking and strictly confining the COVIDs and their contacts will happen: it’s the only way. And then people will say: too little, too late…

The hubris of the system of governance “our” global plutocracy has installed leaves little room for decency or common sense. This is illustrated by the very fact of this pandemic (it would have been avoided by sustained and sustainable research in fundamental biology), and the way we dealt with it (the isle of Taiwan reacted in December, implementing safeguards before the PRC… and the WHO doesn’t want to talk about it, to its eternal shame…).

When people die, when millions could die, the matter is serious. And because it was entirely avoidable, the system should be more than punished. It should be changed. This is what, pushed by the winds of fate, Trump and his frenemies are doing [1]…

Patrice Ayme

***

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[1] Pelosi and Trump are talking about “Phase 4” stimulus… Another 2 trillion dollars, for infrastructure this time. Stalin and FDR, here we come… and leave you in the dust.

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6 Responses to “What Democracies Should To Do With COVID Right Now (April 1)”

  1. Stranger Says:

    Stranger
    Melbourne
    @Patrice Ayme I agree that tracing the contacts would help. It is difficult though when you have 160,000+ confirmed cases as opposed to a couple hundred which Singapore had at the time

    Also, let us not take what we have been told happened in Wuhan as gospel. There were videos on twitter of people being forcibly dragged from their apartments. Also videos of apartment doors being welded shut and ensuring those inside would starve/suffer to death.

    Even after the Chinese knew well and good of what was occurring there were still three flights a week from Wuhan to Milan, effectively sealing their fate.

    Like

    • Patrice Ayme Says:

      @Stranger I agree with all your points, Stranger. The flights from Wuhan to Milan did cause contagion in Lombardy, hence the wise decision of Trump about blocking China shouldn’t have been decried as racism. That certainly hindered Trump in taking more forceful actions quickly, for example by blocking Europe, earlier.

      Everything about Wuhan and Hubei, or Xi’s Great Chinese Reich is suspicious, indeed. It seems likely that Xi lied heavily about the number of deaths, etc. This put the world to sleep as intended. In a master stroke now the US and Europe are more dependent upon Xi’s Reich than ever. Trump is flying 50 giant planes from there, full of medical equipment. France ordered millions of different things there, and is even more dependent, etc.

      The disappearance of people who complained about all the lies about the epidemic in China, some of them very prominent doctors, such as Dr. Ai Fen, whom the New York Times covered, is beyond troubling. The responsible authorities in China should be punished.

      Tracing hundreds of thousands of cases and contacts is of course difficult. This is exactly why I suggested to test, track and confine first in the less affected areas. That’s counterintuitive, but it’s feasible (fewer cases) AND it will allow to free doctors from these areas for service to, say, New York, and other most afflicted area. This is the strategy China followed (however much they cheated on their numbers)…

      Like

  2. Sierra Morgan Dallas Says:

    A brief explanation on health care in Flyover, many county hospitals are staffed with contracted doctors who come for two weeks and leave. There are a handful of local doctors to deal with the day to day stuff. People can easily wait 2-3 months to get in as doctors travel to several communities that can be 100 miles apart.

    SARS 2 COVID19 is hitting Flyover too. Maybe what NYC needs to do is shift the sick to other facilities in the State and revoke the licenses of private care facilities and take ownership.

    Like

  3. Patrice Ayme Says:

    China traced nearly 800,000 people around Wuhan in two weeks, using 1,800 teams of five persons each did it. These are administrative numbers, not propaganda, so are believable…

    Like

  4. D'Ambiallet Says:

    That death rate is horrifying

    Like

    • Patrice Ayme Says:

      Indeed. Scientific authorities, anxious to calm the mob, are computing the death rate deliberately wrong… They could object, and they do, that many silent cases of COVID19 are out there. But then there are also many cases of deaths not registered, because not in hospitals. Maybe counting the previously uncounted is why the French daily death toll tripled today?

      Like

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