Corochinavirus News: Oil Goes Negative, Countries’ Death Rates All Over The Place…

(Boosted a bit April 22 2020). For the first Time Ever the most deflationary shock, ever … Last contract for the month of May, when future becomes real delivery on 4/20/2020: the price of a barrel of oil FELL $55 (fifty-five) dollars today… Becoming -$37… Yes MINUS thirty-seven dollars: they pay you $37 if you take custody of a barrel of oil. UNPRECEDENTED. The poisonous stuff is being produced, but nobody wants it anymore [1]. They pay you to get rid of it… like the pollutant it is. 

How To Explain The Differing Death Rates Among Countries?

Milan, industrial capital of Italy, got infected stealthily, yet massively, thanks to the air bridge from Wuhan, the Corochina virus capital. While China cut all flights from Wuhan and Hubei, the air bridge Wuhan-Milan was not stopped. The virus then got into a pretty old population.

Oil Goes To Hell In A Handbasket, as deserved… Yes these are negative prices…

France, like the rest of Europe, didn’t stop the flights from China. The first cases and deaths were Chinese tourists in France. Also some Brits coming back from Asia, and a mass church of some Christian sect in Mulhouse.

Germany, and other Northern Europeans were infected mostly through a very young population of partying skiers in ski resorts (which were lockdowned too late). So, intrinsically, the population initially hit in Germany was COVID resistant. Germany also tested massively and early, differently from France, Great Britain. Germany is now developing its own antibody test (instead of purchasing dozens from… China, as the US FDA has allowed!)

Germany doesn’t count the nursing homes deaths as well as France does. A running recount by the UK government has shown the number of deaths first announced was 40% what the recount showed. So the death numbers are all over the map. Typically deaths at home are not counted (New York has typically 25 deaths at home a day… recently it has run around 150, six times more…)

In other news, the long term death rate was based on the Diamond Princess… where passengers got first class health care from Japanese hospitals, with maximum care on individual patients. Initially the death rate was reported to be no more than 1%… However two months later what we have from that ship is this: 712 cases, 7 in critical care (ventilation), 13 dead. So we get a morality and morbidity rate close to 3%… 

Otherwise measured, it seems the death care is arguably 21% for those catching the disease. Here are the official numbers 4/20/2020: 815,204 Cases which had an outcome: 645,019 (79%) Recovered / Discharged.

170,185 (21%) DEATHS.

Want more of the same? Countries are massively under-reporting.

As the NYT points out in “28,000 missing deaths: Tracking the true toll of the crisis.

“In the last month, far more people died in these [ELEVEN] countries than in previous years, The New York Times found. The totals include deaths from Covid-19 and those from other causes, potentially including those who could not be treated as hospitals became overwhelmed.

These numbers contradict the notion that many people who have died from the virus might soon have died anyway. In Paris, more than twice the usual number of people have died each day, far more than at the peak of a bad flu season. In New York City, the number is four times the normal amount.”

So what next? Definitely, some individuals relapse, there are well-documented cases all around the world, such unfortunate souls seem to have virus “reservoirs” inside their bodies, and the antibody protection seems far from perfect…. Also the virus attacks the central nervous system in at least a third of the case, and many other organs (and that may cause death directly). It’s known that some viruses can shelter in place inside the central nervous system. Also, in the case of rabies, the immune system counterattack (cytokine storm) ravages the brain… And the same exact mechanism seems at work in some cases of COVID…

Some, many countries have either too much incompetence to count the death properly (say Ecuador), or are outright lying (China). How do we know China’s dictatorship lied? Simple: some cities like Chengdu (capital of Sichuan) were locked down completely, when they had literally 3 cases. All of Hubei was lockdowned, when there were less than 500 cases, worldwide, officially, and 17 deaths… So obviously the Chinese government knew something we didn’t.  

Now this virus has provided us with a demonstration why humanity is not compatible with dictatorship. So China should be encouraged, looking forward, to switch to democracy by being submitted to increasing economic diversification away from itself. For its own good. Like Apartheid South Africa. Apartheid in South Africa killed and oppressed South Africans, but didn’t threaten to kill dozens of millions of people of the world… as Xi’s dictatorship just did.

Patrice Ayme 

***

[1] The world has an estimated storage capacity for 6.8 billion barrels, and nearly 60 percent is filled. (That roughly means than the US production would fill it up in around 4 months…) World oil production needs to go down 30% to balance world demand.

Some of the oil glut is evident in Cushing, Okla., a critical storage hub where the oil that trades on the U.S. futures market is delivered. With a capacity to hold 80 million barrels of oil, Cushing has only 21 million barrels of free storage left, or less than two days of American production. As recently as February, Cushing was not even up to 50 percent. Experts say it will be filled to the brim in May.

Monday 20 April, Trump said the government was “looking to put as much as 75 million barrels” into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which is used as a buffer during crises (it was created after the 1973-1974 oil embargo). He added he will go ask Congress about it… Some democrats said they will introduce legislation for the cost of putting the oil in the reserve… (At most half a million barrels a day can get in…)

But it gets better than that.

Shutting down oil wells and then restarting them when demand returns requires expensive manpower and equipment. Fields do not always recover their former production (production is a dynamic process, is oil is often actively pushed…). In addition, some oil companies have to keep pumping, even if they are losing money, in order to pay interest on their debts and keep on functioning (oil workers are fickle).

In late 2019, the US produced 13.3 million barrels of oil a day.

 

 

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2 Responses to “Corochinavirus News: Oil Goes Negative, Countries’ Death Rates All Over The Place…”

  1. ianmillerblog Says:

    The obvious question is why did Milan not close down flights from Wuhan? It is not as if they did not know there was a virus on the loose there.

    I think your conclusion about the Hubei lockdown might be slightly wrong. Beijing did not know something we don’t; their problm was they simply did not know. This got out of hand because officials in Wuhan did not report what was going on truthfully, so they slappd a lockdown on all of Hubei and decided to work out the necessity for it later. My daughter-in-law’s father lives near the edge of Hunan and commuted to a factory in Hubei, and got caught in the lockdown, and was not allowed to go home for a week while the spread of the virus was checked. Talk about plenty of unpaid overtime. According to him, Beijing was simply being over-cautious and determined to stop this virus by whatever means.

    I also think that in this case your argument that democracy is better might be questioned. China has done a better job of constraining the virus that I believe the US will do, looking at the progress so far.

    Like

    • Patrice Ayme Says:

      “The obvious question is why did Milan not close down flights from Wuhan? It is not as if they did not know there was a virus on the loose there.
      I think your conclusion about the Hubei lockdown might be slightly wrong. Beijing did not know something we don’t, their problem was they simply did not know.”

      Well, apparently, the Chinese dictator Xi knew, because he made an alarming discourse to his oligarchic accomplices on January 7… While officially the dictatorship pretended there was no human to human transmission (individuals claiming the contrary were hounded, arrested, and made to recant, including famous, soo to die, 34 year old, Doctor Li). WHO kept on with the fiction of no danger of pandemic into February.

      Much European industry can’t function without China. It’s a shame. Pretty much all what is sold in the industrial part of Italy, including famed “Italian” clothing, is Chinese. The active principles of most drugs, including hydroxychloroquine and antibiotics“made” in… “India”…) come from China (97% for generic antibiotics sold in the US). Trump invoked this week the Defense Procurement Act for… cotton swabs… (So far, made in China!)

      Now the European “leaders” were anxious to believe the lies coming from the Chinese dictatorship which enrich those who pay the so-called leaders after their “service” (when they self-serve). Also equally anxious to believe the WHO, China’s agent.
      ***
      Ian:” I also think that in this case your argument that democracy is better might be questioned. China has done a better job of constraining the virus that I believe the US will do, looking at the progress so far. “

      This assertion depends upon believing in the Chinese dictatorship to start with. There is plenty of evidence that it lied by a factor of ten or even twenty in the number of deaths and people affected.

      China lockdowned Chengdu, sixteen million, in Sichuan, west of Hubei, when there were three cases there. Obviously it means they knew something they didn’t tell the rest of the world. Right, the rest of the world should have looked at what the dictatorship was doing, not what it said to the world.

      The P4 lab in Wuhan, the only one in China operating at that level of danger and confinement, was set up by the French. Democracy is smarter. The Chinese dictatorship is mostly a giant colony of carnivorous, bat eating, pangolin snacking, lazy parrots. The Chinese were banned from the ISS, the International Space Station, because it was believed they would just parrot all they saw inside, and then undermine. A thermonuclear dictatorship is an immense danger. Arguably, China is more of a dictatorship than Russia.

      It is said, by people living there, that Wuhan is only 20-30% back. Not 70% as propaganda has it. We will beat this virus through advanced tech and science, as revealed by democracy. The tin pot dictator in China, a larger version of the one in North Korea, wants to pass for valuable, but he is just a thief, who stole billions, and knows just enough goons to impose his small-man will…

      As Aristophane said, enough of these small-man stories. Let’s get rid of them.

      Like

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