Archive for October 5th, 2021

BIG IDEA In Climate Science: We Are Already Above A DOUBLING OF CO2

October 5, 2021

Abstract: The Physics Nobel 2021 Was Given To Climate Scientists. The “positive feedback loops” today’s 2021 physics Nobel prize laureate speaks about are ALREADY HERE. No wonder: we are already above the 600 ppm in CO2 EQUIVALENTS

***

I never heard of the three 2021 Nobel Laureate in Physics. I have heard of more fundamental climate scientists, though, and the Nobel Committee did not mention them, because they are long dead, thus do not need money, and apparently money is everything: the Nobel money was divided in two, half was given to two eminent scientists, and professor Parisi from Italy got the other half. 

When prizes are given, presumably the top thought-givers should be rewarded. Or, at least, remembered. But the Nobel Committee seems determined to avoid this task, this historical examination… Which should not be so arduous. Remember Socrates saying the unexamined life was not worth having? Is the unexamined prize worth having? 

How do the prize committees evaluate the most important act of thought? (I know there are 900 or so physicists on the Nobel consulting committee or so… Half from the US… Not that diversified; but that’s not my main objection: there are not geographically diversified, historically thorough and causally explicit…) 

The top climate physicists rewarded by the 2021 Nobel all work for top establishment institutions, and presumably did detailed work.

However, as far as I am concerned, what counts is who got the main idea first. 

Actually I am not the first one to think of that: even the US Patent System works that way. Conception and Reduction To Practice. One cannot be an inventor if one just engaged in Reduction To Practice. When somebody makes a computer model of someone else’s major idea, it is a reduction to practice, not a conceptualization. 

***

I will write another essay on some of the historical main thought-givers of Climate Science, since the Nobel committee made such a bad job of it. A topmost mathematician (Fourier) figures prominently, so does a woman. 

But let me point out to a crucial idea: talking about CO2 all day long is not enough. Contributions to Radiative Forcing are also made by other MAN MADE greenhouse gases. And they are HUGE. Those can be acted upon more readily than on CO2 emissions themselves (actually many governments are aware of this point).

The contribution to PLANETARY HEATING from ARTIFICIAL MAN-MADE Greenhouse Gases is ENORMOUS, On TOP Of CO2…

Yes, CO2 is natural, much of it stuck in permafrost, and so is released during warming episodes caused by changes in Earth orbit which warm up the Northern Hemisphere (where most of the permafrost and warmable ground ice is). So during warming from orbital fluctuation happens, CO2 accentuates the warming. 

But the MAN MADE greenhouses released today are from human activity, and none are so striking as these gases which do not occur in nature.

And they contribution is enormous: around 60%, the IPCC/GIEC graph is clear (IPCC = International Panel Climate Change, the UN world experts commission).

Now we are at 420 ppm in CO2 (instead of 280 ppm in 1850). So, the total is well above 600 ppm of CO2 equivalent. That means a guaranteed rise of 2.5 degree Centigrade above the 1850 baseline (we are at 1.3-1.5 C above it right now).

***

Conclusion: Even in science, there is too much emphasis on celebrities, a form of fascism and tribalism, and thus fundamentally anti-intellectual. Instead of telling us three guys are bigger than big in climate science, a distortion of reality, one should focus on two ideas: artificial man-made greenhouse gases contribute for more than one-third of the greenhouse forcing and we have already achieved more than a doubling of CO2 in equivalent gases, making a 2.5 C rise unavoidable… That is a doubling of the temperature rise already observed, which should force the Earth average temperature from the present 15C to 16.5 C.

Teaching science and subtlety instead of unfair and unbalanced celebritism, would teach the world community how to think in a more complex fashion rather than just scoring celebrity pointsand appreciation thereof.

Ironically enough, the 2021 Physics Nobel was given for complexity studies relating to climate… The fundamental enemy of progress and understanding, let alone empathy, is simplemindedness… And it does not matter where it comes from.

Patrice Ayme

***

P/S: Let’s use one of the newly anointed celebrities we are supposed to revere, Professor Parisi from Italy, who just got half of the 2021Physics Nobel:

Parisi was thankfully explicit in answer to a question from a reporter at this morning’s Nobel award announcement ceremony in Stockholm. “It is urgent that we make real, very strong decisions, and move at a very strong pace” to address climate change, Parisi said, “because we are in a situation where we can have positive feedback and that may accelerate the increase of temperature. It is clear that for future generations we have to act now in a very fast way, and not delay.”

It is not just question of future generations: entire ecosystems are now going up in smoke. I saw it from my very eyes… Running in smoke, dodging literally helicopters embarking dozens of tons of water in lakes, struggling in devastated forests where it is hard to move because collapsed tree trunks are all over…

The “positive feedbacks” show up as exponentials. Now the funny thing is that the temperature augmentation depends logarithmically on the CO2. Instead, we see temperature graphs which are clearly linear, if not already exponential. That means that the “positive feedback loops” are ALREADY HERE. So here we see why Parisi got a Nobel: he says it is “urgent” because we can have positive feedback and that may accelerate the increase of temperature. But of course if we have “positive feedback” we have “acceleration” and actually an exponential. So Parisi is underemphasizing the total emergency we are in… to the point of saying something nearly as silly as saying that shooting ourselves in the head may accelerate our demise. Yes, indeed.

Why The “Greens” Have Been Fake, So Far. In One Graph

October 5, 2021

The youngest member of the German Parliament is 23. A “Green”. She is studying in college to become the under-assistant of some theater for children (Jungen Schauspielhaus Hamburg Haus-Regieassistentin). Could she understand the graph below? Probably not. This is the most important graph, it shows our “green” policies in the last 50 years have been erroneous, a fraud and… masquerade. Yes, masquerade. What do the plutocrats who own our world intend to achieve by giving powers to the ignorant? Just the same as they would giving nominal powers to babies.

Yes, we went from 6% LOW CARBON PRIMARY ENERGY PRODUCTION, to 16%, WORLDWIDE, in 50 years..

Strange world… The first rise is attributable to the ramp-up in nuclear and major dams. Now, it turns out that major dams present serious ecological problems, even when used as batteries (filling them up at night with base energy, that is, nuclear energy). In any case, dams are limited… Although one could build elevated artificial lagoons next to off shore wind farms.

So we are going to be led by someone who is just a young comedian. Who else could be better qualified for kabuki style politics we presently enjoy? Maybe my dog should be candidate to leadership. The very idea of having a few leading others without us being able to show to them how stupid and ill-informed they are, is corrupt. But that corruption is precisely their motivation. One may as well reproach vultures to be into decaying corpses. Before I dig further into the corruption of the world leadership and its little aspirant dictators, let me roll out the graph: I had been incapable of finding it in a timely manner for the major essay, ANTI-NUCLEAR ECOLOGY IS FAKE Ecology.

Reason why I could not find that graph, although I knew it existed? Such a graph is deliberately buried under a morass of irrelevant and misleading graphs… A plot, or simply a public so conditioned to ask the wrong and insignificant questions, that what is most significant gets most buried? Probably both… There are companies the business of which is to move around the ranking of search results, in either directions…

Today I saw an idiotic young woman running in 90 degree heat, with a gator on her face, a sort of scarf demonstrated to transmit COVID five times more than no mask… Miles from roads, and there was nobody around, aside from me, also for miles. I will not point out that she was a blonde, probably with “Black Lives Matter” on her multi-million dollars lawn… That blonde is probably studying nothing… That qualifies her for Congress. But even medical doctors are affected by the nonsense: the US has by far the highest COVID death toll, propelled by so-called “experts”, some of whom likely financed the “Gain Of Function” at the Wuhan lab, because Obama had decreed they could not do in the good old USA… And still they pontificate, more mighty than ever [1]. 

This is not the first time that a so-called and self-described “left” or “progressives” go maniacally insane: contemplate Mussolini’s “socialists”, Hitler’s “national-socialists”, Stalin’s “Communists”… Or closer to us McCarthyism… which did not pretend to be left, right, but pretended to save the US way of life, when, actually, it was doing the opposite…

Fleeing from reality, common sense, but fighting COVID 24/7, miles from the closest human… With a gigantic scarf/mask hanging all over her face and chest…

No humans around? Let’s wear a mask!

Speaking of kabuki, the relatively new Japanese Premier observed that he had not been as competent as it should have been fighting COVID, in the last few months. Admitting his failure, he resigned. It would be nice to see the same in the rest of the West… And the so-called “experts” in command of various institutions should be the first, and other government than France should criminally prosecute their health ministers for completely erroneous orders, causing mass deaths…

Patrice Ayme

***

[1] It is amazing that the country with the worst COVID was the same which financed, and mostly elaborated the vaccines… However, on second look, the very fact that NIH financed GOF at Wuhan Virology Institute fits in that scheme: risk taking (plus a zest of greed). Trump, who financed no less than 20 vaccines worldwide (while France or Germany or Italy or Spain, or Japan, financed none, strictly NO vaccine, at least none coming in a timely manner…) is a notorious risk taker. And BioNTech (a couple of Germans of Turkish origin), Astra Zeneca led by a Frenchman, financed by Johnson and Trump, leveraged research at Oxford from women biologists… And Moderna, led by another Frenchman... Looks like the French have to flee…

Of course Russia and China also produced effective vaccines in a timely manner… Indicating they know also how to take smart risks… Trump used to ask whether Biden was sleeping… Don’t know about Biden, but clearly, Europe is sleeping.

Meanwhile China has started the construction of a small nuclear reactor, a type that passively stop if anything goes wrong: Europe threatened to develop these, more than 30 years ago already, but never did: too many fake ecologists crawling around. The new small nuclear reactor will power more than half a million homes on the island of Hainan. Maybe Europe could buy some? Also the Italian space agency, confronted with the failure of the Italian-European Arianespace launcher Vega C, has scrambled and the always helpful SpaceX offered them an immediate launch for their latest bus sized satellite: falling asleep has consequences…

The second COSMO SkyMed Second Generation satellite (CSG-2) was planned to be launched with VEGA-C within 2021, but the launcher development has been impacted by the VV15 and VV17 failures and, above all, by the COVID pandemic. … it was not possible to have a European backup solution compliant with the CSG-2 schedule, thus an alternative solution with the US provider SPACE X has been adopted allowing to keep the CSG-2 launch within the current year.”

Italian Space Agency (ASI) – September 2021

And for those who wonder what this has to do with the initial subject: the strategy of developing “renewables” instead of nuclear, or both… Is a European strategy, and it is sleeping at the wheel while the biosphere is crashing…. Biden seems determined to adopt it… which makes sense as the US is the number one fossil fuel producer in the world, and that anti-nuclear, pro-renewable strategy is a fake-out. When renewables will have triumphed at not having that much of an impact, the US will be delighted to roll out their nuclear arsenal for the European nightmare…


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