Nuclear Decapitation Strikes: How Putin Wins With Nukes


Since February 2022, Putin and his helpers have said, and repeated that, if they don’t get their way, humanity should go. The idea that if a tyrant does not get his way, humanity should disappear is new: on n’arrête pas le progrès. It’s found in some religious texts where angry, jealous gods get rid of humanity. Putin is the first tyrant who expressed the will to destroy all, and has the means to do so.

Putin drew nuclear red lines, assesses the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), and they have been crossed since, and Putin did nothing spectacular. See: SPECIAL REPORT: ASSESSING PUTIN’S IMPLICIT NUCLEAR THREATS AFTER ANNEXATION, Sep 30, 2022, observes that Putin did not renew immediate nuclear threats when he annexed four provinces of Ukraine, September 30, 2022. This gives a false feeling of security, and opens humanity to a Putin surprise.

However, ISW concludes that: “The more confident Putin is that nuclear use will not achieve decisive effects but will draw direct Western conventional military intervention in the conflict, the less likely he is to conduct a nuclear attack. Indeed, indeed… As long as the “West” has somebody to talk to.

However the following is true:

  1. Without Putin using nuclear weapons, Ukraine will recover all her lost territories, including Crimea.
  2. Such an Ukrainian victory will be accompanied with huge losses for the Kremlin, in all ways. 
  3. The catastrophic losses will bring regime change in the Kremlin.
  4. Putin, although otherwise a complete idiot, may be smart enough to guess the preceding. So:

Let’s explore the unthinkable, where Putin does exactly what the “West” does not expect him to do.


Helping Ukraine is not just a moral necessity, it’s a survival necessity. We can’t let inhumanity win, it will come for all of us, ultimately.

The United Nation determined in September 2022 that children as young as 4 were raped, tortured and killed in Ukraine, by Putin forces, in significant numbers. It is the necessity of survival for  humanity to fight against inhumanity.

We are going down an apocalyptic decision tree. In the short run, Putin is going to try to overwhelm Ukrainians with human waves… at least so goes the conventional thinking. As Putin sent mainly minorities to fight, this has the advantage of a genocide against minorities, for example the Crimean Tartars. Ultimately, though, this traditional Kremlin method will fail, against experienced, increasingly well armed, extrmely motivated Ukraine. 

And Putin should know this.

At that point, the best outcome, for non-Putin civilization, is that the Russian  military eliminates Putin. Putin also knows this. Putin should also know this. So Putin knows he does not have forever to win. 

So let’s suppose that Putin is not eliminated (while praying to all known divinities, and other imaginable, that he will be). 



Putin then must terrify Ukraine into submission, by submitting it to nuclear bombing… and sooner rather than later. Terrifying Zelinsky and his government looks impossible, so the only solution is to eliminate them. 

Indeed, the smartest way for Putin to nuclear bomb his enemy is not by using nukes on the battlefield: Ukrainian forces are dispersed, armored, entrenched, mobile, Putin would have to use several nukes on a concentrated front, and on Ground Line Of Communications behind. The military advantage would be slim, if any; the world outrage would be great; NATO’s “devastating response” would consist into opening the spigot of full military help to Ukraine [1].Putin would argue he is using nukes on (just annexed) Russian soil to defend from a Neo-Nazi invasion, but the whole world would turn against him.

So using nukes as ISW expects him to do, striking troop concentrations and GLOCs, with several nukes, would bring more of the same to Putin, just worse. Alleging, as Putin did, that the US was the first to nuclear bomb, and so “created a precedent” is irrelevant: the US did not launch an invasion of Japan, and eben after Japan surrendered, did not invade Japan nor a fortiori annex it territory and claim that Japan had no right to exist. Instead of annexing territory, the US imposed the vote of Japanese women (immediately)…   



The war aim of Putin, expressed for decades, is to destroy the Ukrainian state. We saw above that he can’t do it conventionally, or with a dozen nukes… That leaves us with another obvious possibility, which would achieve the element of surprise. In his Art Of War, Sun Tzu wrote: In conflict, direct confrontation will lead to engagement and surprise will lead to victory. Those who are skilled in producing surprises will win. Such tacticians are as versatile as the changes in heaven and earth.

By trying a nuclear decapitation strike on the Ukrainian state, killing the Ukrainian leadership, Putin would achieve surprise.

How far from each other are the presidency, national assembly, department of defense and regalian ministries of Ukraine? The presidency and Rada (national assembly) are 500 meters apart. And so on. Putin could use a MIRVed rocket with one warhead going to the presidency, the other to the Rada, etc… Putin could launch one of his “Satan 2” missiles (the RS-28 Sarmat), and be done with the leadership of Ukraine. The warheads could be programmed to explode after impact, causing tremendous shockwaves which would destroy all very deep underground installations in Kvyiv. Then Putin would appear on TV, completely enraged, and accuse the “West” to have done it. 

The way Putin could pretend to look at such a war crime, is a win-win: he would have killed the “Neo-Nazi” leadership, and intimidated Ukraine into submission. After the decapitation strike on Kyiv, Putin could contact individual army commands in Ukraine, and order them to surrender, or to see the cities they are in, or next, be submitted to similar nuclear bombardment. 

What would NATO do? Well, nothing, because NATO DID NOT THINK ABOUT PUTIN GOING FULL WACKO.



First, imagine the scenario presented here, and feel its likelihood. 

Putin is a malefactor with only one concern: reconstitute the old Kremlin empire, and anything else is not tolerable. Only victory will bring him survival… another similarity with Adolf Hitler. 

It is a modern tragedy surpassing anything written in the past. One is dizzy, just contemplating the consequences. 

The Ukrainian government, and NATO, should keep this in mind, the possibility of a nuclear decapitation strike. Thus they should get ready, and MUST be blatant about it. The Russian military has to understand decapitation strikes would probably not work, ONCE COUNTERMEASURES are taken. Faced with this, the Russian military would perhaps draw the conclusion that it is the Kremlin which needs decapitation.

So the focus should be on dispersing the Ukrainian government, and military commands make them mobile… Well sheltered, and yet not too associated with large conurbations. Also the West should scramble to produce massively anti-missiles and anti-ballistic systems. There are a number of these systems in existence, but insufficient numbers, or developed by the US, France and Israel. Early versions of these systems should be sent to Ukraine, ASAP. 

If Ukraine and NATO take those precautions, and the option of decapitation strikes will turn into a probable ineffective nuclear slaughter all over Ukraine, the decapitation strikes option would be closed. 

Putin will then be reduced to multiple use of nukes on the battlefield, hoping that would scare Ukraine into submission. The problem of NATO and Ukraine will then be to make this nuclear battlefield behavior unsustainable [2].

But that would be a a lesser problem.



The present situation with Putin is no surprise to me: I wrote many essays comparing in detail Putin with Hitler for very good and deep reasons, the fundamental oligarchic organization of the world, more than a decade ago. Most “leaders” pretended to be surprised about Putin’s behavior in 2022. However, they egged Putin on, for decades, just as Hlter had been egged on, by western oligarchic predecessors. Self-declared “leader” Obama used to be Putin’s accomplice, a mafioso talking to another, through Medvedev, then “president” of Russia, in 2012:”Tell Vladimir I will be freer to do whatever he wants me to do, after the election,” said the corrupt “leader” over a hot mike… Obama, and Merkel, and the other corrupt ones led into “satanism”, Putin himself declared on September 30, 2022, knowing all too well what he was talking about. 

The satanic mood Putin was part of is extensive. An ex-friend of mine, Philip Short wrote a glowing biography of tyrant Putin, exonerating him for the crimes related to Chechnya in 1999, when Putin was already in charge.

I am sure Philip Short, once a big man at the BBC, was paid… Hey mortgages, you know, properties all over, castles in the Provencal sky… So were thousands of others… And, implicitly, they like the privileges, the money, the power, but they also would hate to fall victims of accidents, as happened to many oligarchs who did not faithful obey the nuclear Czar… Don’t we all…

So, if civilization wants to avoid being surprised by nuclear decapitation strikes, get ready for them…

Let me repeat slowly: Putin and his criminal oligarchic clique have lost the conventional war with Ukraine and democracy. Thus, Putin is tempted by a nuclear decapitation strike against what he calls the “Neo-Nazis” in Ukraine and the “neocolonial” “satanism” of “the West”. Nuclear strikes would be effective, because the West would have no answer. Ukraine and the West have to expect, take countermeasures, and thus, prevent this.

Patrice Ayme


[1] Notice that, in this scenario, NATO would have had to switch to massive war production of sophisticated anti-missile systems… but that is neither easy, nor fast to do. France is ramping up the production of Rafale fighter-bomber, but many subcontrators find it very hard to do so. Production of the US HIMARS rockets is 9,000 a year. Ukraine is rumored to use 6,000 a month. Even expanding production lines for old-fashioned, unguided 155 mm howitzer shells can take more than a year. Guided and submunitions shells, as France and the US produce, take much longer to ramp up.


[2] That would mean to enable the Ukrainian to hit Russian cities with conventional means.

Hypersonic Russian missile strike on Lviv, Western Ukraine, fired from Russia, 20 March 2022. Such missiles can carry thermonuclear warheads. Having a high probability to intercept them, as soon as they are fired from over Russia, would be a formidable deterrent, because Russian-made nuclear material would fall over the Russian empire.

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8 Responses to “Nuclear Decapitation Strikes: How Putin Wins With Nukes”

  1. D'Ambiallet Says:

    Well I remember you sounding the alarm under Obama about Putin. The bad you anticipated happened. Your warning sounds cogent and astute. Did you sent it to Macron and Biden?


  2. William Hooper Says:

    Yes 10 megatons on Kiev looks like the obvious strategy to outsiders.
    However, if you talk to Russians you will get some sense why this is resisted. Russians think the Ukrainians are brothers, they almost all have mixed ancestry, hence the idea of wiping out huge numbers of them is an anathema.

    E.g. for the US Army, carpet bombing Iraq was easy emotionally, all they had to worry about was the publicity starting a case against them, but Putin is the other way around, go ahead and carpet bomb say the legal advisors around him, but his humanity is opposed. We see this most dramatically in his letting civilians escape his encirclements, and leaving intact most civilian infrastructure across Ukraine- things US military experts look upon in wonderment even if the gaga political class hysterically denounce him as a monster.

    And, of course, it’s not just his humane emotions, he is also thinking he needs these people to love him in the future because he wants to be one people again and thinks you can’t make unity by force (not actually true of course if you think about it carefully). So i think these feelings and future plans stand in the way of conquest and he doesn’t have a realistic and clear vision which has resolved the conflicts between emotions and reason etc.


    • Patrice Ayme Says:

      William: Thanks for the reply, which has a surrealistic feeling to me.

      Hitler, too, wanted to save minorities: he made hundreds of discourse about that, while he perusuaded hundreds of millions of Nazis and admirers throughout the world that he was “humane”… the exact aim of Putin, Hitler, or Stalin’s propagandas… Stalin was also the “little father of the peoples”… Stalin killed six million Ukrainians in Holodomor of the mid 1930s….

      Putin is all too human: he would prefer to see all of Ukraine dead to satisfy his thirst for territory. To believe his advisers are bad is the exact line the Kremlin has been trying to impose in the last few days, and it is also the tyrant’s oldest trick: don’t blame me, blame by advisors. Louis XIV of France said just the same on his death bad.

      Now, true, most Russians affect to feel Ukrainians are their brothers… As long as they contribute to the Kremlin’s empire might and reach. Ukraine was the major contributir to Kremlin power which was not Moscovite Rus.

      What I pointed out is that, if Putin is not eliminated first, manu military, he will be tempted to use nuclear strategic nukes. After all, his life and that of his clique, and all their possessions, hundreds of billions in Westrn Europe alone, are on line. And after all, NATO will have no ready answer: NATO will be rather petrified if this happens.

      Conclusion: Ukraine and NATO have to be ready for Putin’s Armageddon solution. War creates reality.


      • William Hooper Says:

        “ Hitler, too, wanted to save minorities: he made hundreds of discourse about that, while he perusuaded hundreds of millions of Nazis and admirers throughout the world that he was “humane”…”

        Do you make this stuff up or what? Hitler was something like a social darwinian who lectured about the threat to humanity posed by inferior races such the jews preaching anti-superman messages. E.g. Mein Kampf by Adolf Hitler… “The Jewish doctrine of Marxism rejects the aristocratic principle of Nature and replaces the eternal privilege of power and strength by the mass of numbers and their dead weight. Thus it denies the value of personality in man, contests the significance of nationality and race, and thereby withdraws from humanity the premise of its existence and its culture. As a foundation of the universe, this doctrine would bring about the end of all intellectual order… “ Apart from his special campaign to eradicate the jews which he saw as dangerous sophists and materialists, Hitler make fun of liberal British for teaching Indians to run railways. He suggested there is far more profit in simply exterminating inferior races and seizing their land, which is what he planned in Russia.

        Putin’s thesis is vastly different, he complains America should mind its own business and let Russian and the Ukraine fight it out, which he calls real freedom and self-determination instead of American hegemony and slavery, nowhere does he talk about the Ukrainians as sub human…


        • Patrice Ayme Says:

          No, I do not make this up. Hitler campaigned on saving the “Volskdeutsche”, Germans outside of Germany, and under attack, according to the Nazis. The Nazis claimed that was 10% of the total German population, and had been mostly caused by the Versailles Treaty.

          Putin seems to be a nuclear Darwinian. Do as I said, or all die!

          Hitler misread Marxism, deliberately: he knew that Marxism promoted “DICTATORSHIP of the proletariat”.

          Mass homicidal tyrant Putin, dictator for 23 years, has referred to Ukraine’s democratically elected government as a “gang of drug addicts and neo-Nazis,” while Russian state media and propagandists have repeatedly called for the “denazification” of the entire population of Ukraine.


  3. Andy Blankenhorn Says:

    ….assuming his missiles actually go where he wants them to go and then go off as planned. Recent events cast doubt on russian technology.


    • Patrice Ayme Says:

      Yes, but that Sarmat missile (“Satan 2” NATO calls it) with ten thermonuclear warheads should work. One is enough. The point is that neither Ukraine nor NATO seems ready to that possibility.

      But agreed many Putin missiles fail… and that would render anti-missile systems even more efficient. BTW, the US has the means to intercept intercontinental missile warheads, SM 6 I think can do it. They should be deployed around Kyiv. One would need many, because of “penetration aids”…


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