Unsustainable Exponentiation Of Temperature

ANTHROPOCENE DETERIORATING CLIMATE: CO2, GHG, Questions And Answers:

Nigel: Based on your posts I have great admiration for your depth of research and the quest for truth so I implore you to let me brief you on this climate change subject some more..

PA: Thanks, I appreciate the compliment a lot, and it encourages me to persist in my ways, whatever they are. On all subjects, I try to get all perspectives, keep what I perceive to be right, what is false, and then rebuild a logic around those truths. My positions on everything, including climate, often lead people to label me in ways far removed from, or even opposite to, my balance point. On the human caused climate change, my positions are nuanced and wildly diverse, yet they make a coherent whole. Yes, we are on an eminent +7C trajectory. Should we panic and blow hot air? No. 

Nigel: I am not in denial but am well informed…Yes the climate is changing (Always has) and mostly for the better and we may need some adaptation but we have time and it’s far from an emergency…

Patrice Ayme: I am looking directly across the Golden Gate bridge. I have no doubt that someday, California will have to dam the Golden Gate. Otherwise the most productive agricultural area of the USA will become an interior sea,  flooding twenty million people. 

A recent (2023) paper revealed a tidal way of melting for ice shelves, which had not been discovered prior. Thanks to this new activity, the many authors from many prestigious research centers double the rate of ice shelf melting. It was completely obvious, BTW, that this was happening, as ice shelves breathe with the tides.

I have observed that we are on a cataclysmic 7 degree C trajectory for 2100. France, which has very ancient precise readings, has the long term average at +1.7 C above the famed baseline from 1880 CE. Right now the entire planet is well above 1.5 C. This year, from El Nino, it’s likely going to come closer to +2C, as warm deep water is pushed up to the surface. One has to understand most of the planetary heating is in the polar regions. 

It is an emergency, but that does not mean we should run around like chickens… as we have been. If nuclear power had been developed as it should have been, with new types of reactors, electricity could be 100% carbon free, with safe, non-proliferating and non-polluting fission reactors. In France, Kremlin sponsored ecologists made a secret deal with the Socialist (PS) government of Lionel Jospin, in 1999, to stop nuclear energy, especially the research. Generations of know-how disappeared (French gov launched its nuclear program in January 1938, oldest in the world).  

Nigel: We are exiting an ice age and this has happened before and in the life cycle of humanity we have at least 3 measured periods when temperatures were far higher than the current predictions. 

PA: There are three episodes with temps equal or slightly superior (with three pulses less than 2 C above the present…). .. Around 120,000 years ago (Eemian), temps were not really higher than the present, except for one very short pulse 3C above the present…. but global sea level was 6 meters higher. The climate is full of surprises: there was a warm glaciation (!!!) 450 K years ago… But now we are guaranteed at least +4C within a century, and that’s not been the case for at least 3 million years, and probably much more.

Temp fluctuations in the past rarely happened at the present pace, and when they did (Dryas), that didn’t last.

Nigel: CO2 is at the lowest it’s been for 250 million years and we will be good with 3 times the current amount.

PA: Two centuries ago, we were around 250 ppm CO2, now we are getting close to 600 ppm EQUIVALENT CO2 (CO2 + CH4 + NOx + CFCs + etc.).Cattle in France contributes as much from its CH4 emissions as residential heating (12% of total CO2 equivalent each). Barring volcanism or impact, CO2 levels varied over millennia, or even millions of years (consider the end of the Cretaceous).

Nigel: The other fact is that our industrial impact on CO2 levels is insignificant 

PA: Going from 250 ppm to 600 ppm CO2 equivalents in 140 years is not insignificant. To boot, the main greenhouse gas is H2O, not CO2. The GreenHouse Gases (GHG) act through FORCING. It forces more H2O up, and that’s nonlinear. The exact function, called sensitivity, is unknown.

Observe that in the graph above the temperature curve seems to accelerate higher than the CO2 curve. That’s caused by the other GHG gases…. which add 1/3 of forcing. A better graph would have represented the GHG (which vary according to NOx and CFCs…)

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Nigel: …and our biggest threat is we will destroy our prosperity and ability to fund adaptation by a panic to focus on so-called Net-Zero. So it’s drill baby drill and stop the nonsense on wind and solar and move to nuclear as quickly as possible to avoid pollution. Also reduce globalization and change to a fish farming strategy to save the oceans.

PA: I do not disagree with any of these points. Biden himself opened Alaska to drilling in a way Trump did not dare to do. My position is that massive research is needed. If prosperity is cut down, research will become impossible, which is the worst outcome.

Solar works (in combination with green hydrogen or derivatives). Wind is much more problematic, as the wind belts will migrate in the polar directions.
Nigel: On the trends of fires floods sea levels rise and weather induced tornados and such we see all danger trends reducing and our adaptive capability increases.. there is some work to do on forest fires but it’s NOT the climate but mainly our management approach.

Forests are burning and will burn. The Australian fires were so terrible that they changed the Pacific ocean surface temperature, and caused 3 La Nina in a row, desiccating California. The ravages of old growth forests in California have been heart breaking… even without fire. I documented them on this site with my own pictures. Years before the fires (which I predicted)

Climate Catastrophe: California Forests Dying. Giant Fires Coming In 2018

Nigel: The planet is doing just fine and will continue to do its variable thing…. 

PA: The biosphere could die from hypoxia (second worst case scenario) 

https://patriceayme.wordpress.com/2014/05/30/global-hypoxia/

It has already started: huge zones of the oceans are too low in oxygen for advanced animal life. It could get worse if the permafrost rots on a hypermassive scale.

Nigel: …it’s us I am worried about as we are moving from science based thinking toward self destructive religion based group think.
More at https://co2coalition.org Home – CO2 Coalition
I suggest you take the quiz… they have a debate in a few weeks I can plug you into to learn more.

My suggestion is you study this scientific based data and we chat more..

PA: An uncle of mine, a famous astronomer, was studying the subject, up at the Jungfrau observatory, in the Berner Oberland… a century ago!

I talked to him, long ago, about the subject of CO2 precisely ( he was mostly an astrophysicist). Founder of the Institut d’Astrophysique, Daniel Challonge was a member of the French Communist Party, and was forbidden to travel to the USA… Although he was the gentlest of souls. He founded the observatory, the Observatoire de Haute Provence, which discovered the first exoplanets (the two PIs, astronomers from Geneva got the Nobel)…

I have been science obsessed all my life. This (grand) uncle, a professional, was friends with my two grandfathers who were amateur astronomers. My own father, a geologist from Algeria who found Algerian gas and oil, was skeptical about the rise of-temperature (of course, he was born in Africa, and roamed the Sahara!) But he died from an African disease before the heat wave which killed thousands in France in 2003, the hottest since precise records started in 1540 CE. The heat caused a crop shortfall in parts of Southern Europe. The death toll has been estimated at more than 70,000, half of them in northern France. The records were beaten since, several times.

This year is guaranteed to shatter records, because of El Nino and the exponentiation of climate change.
Much more effort should be made towards nuclear, especially thermonuclear fusion. It can clearly work, but the efficiencies have to be boosted, and for that government sponsored fundamental research has to be lavishly funded. Star power is also the key to solar system colonization.

My uncle Daniel Challonge has a 30 kilometer diameter crater named after him on the Moon. So science, yes, I know, never leave a moment without it….

Patrice Ayme

USA, Child Of Europe, Suddenly Remembers How It Was Born

Never forget this: however rambunctious a youngster, the USA is the child of France and Britain. In this order, as French adventurers led by an enlightened Dux, (re) created Britannia, starting in 1066 CE and for centuries thereafter… So lots of what looks British is actually Old French (for example the Parliament, inspired from that of Toulouse).

The relationship of the US to the UK and France is one of filiation, not just affection and common genesis as republics and democracies. So the least they can do is trade together.

The disasters of WWI, Nazism, WWII, and giving half of Europe to Stalin, were, to a great extent caused by the fact that the child, the US, moved by too much greed and avarice, forgot to listen to the parents who should be revered… in a timely manner.

The UK Parliament, under a proposal from PM Churchill, voted for the union of France and Britain in June 1940. (However the military collapse of France blocked the offer. There was no time.) 

Fortunately, in the present fascist attack on Europe, the US has been in the lead defending democracy. That’s all for the best, as the situation is potentially much more catastrophic (nuclear war).

The main reason Nazism and Stalinism became so powerful so fast was the immense US investment in the Reich and the USSR. The same mistake has been repeated contemporaneously with various fascist dictatorships, so we should cease and desist, and trade with democracies alone.  

Remember the Obama nonsense about “pivoting to Asia?”. How does one “pivot” from one’s roots?

It would also be in the best interest of the common European originated civilization, that the US encourage a European military-industrial complex, instead of viewing it only as a rival to be destroyed.

European industry has developed some weapons the US itself does not have (CAESAR gun, Aster 30, AIP submarines, new type nuclear submarine electric propulsion, etc.). The reciprocal is well-known, and Europeans accordingly buy a lot of US weapons (including that dubious weapon, the F35).

But the US equipped itself, as early as the 1930s, with perfidic laws and deplorable mentality which, even at the detriment of US defense, make nearly impossible for the Pentagon to purchase superior European weapons… One may want to know that quintessential US weapons of WWII such as nuclear bombs and the Mustang long range superiority fighter actually started, years before, as Franco-British programs…

Europe and its worldwide colonies, and allies, will be stronger if all are treated fairly. And that implies no technological unhooking. The perfidically named “Inflation Reduction Act” of Biden, a giant subsidy for domestic industrialization is to be commended… As long as Europe can do the same. This way, they would be like China, which itself, tries to be the way Europe became so superior… Driven by tech and science. In the most recent Chinese Communist Party Central Committee, 40% of the members are technologists or scientists…

Thus it’s not clear that China intends to be as dumb as the Kremlin tyrants…

In any case, the US should be welcomed to its roots, and should treat those with all due respect.

Patrice Ayme

Obamacraze, Clinton, & The Sixth Sense

OBAMACRAZE Or Obamacare? Clinton, Bill, says the former:

The last eight years have been hard for real progressives. After some racist taunts, by a few, Obama became wildly popular (according to the polls). Yet, in some ways, he was the most right-wing president, EVER. The plutocrats’ extrication from the 2008 crisis was concocted by G.W. Bush, and mostly executed by Obama. The mercantilist and fascist rule of carefully nurtured monopolies was straight out of corporate fascism, as technically explained by professor Gentile and implemented by Mussolini, then Chancellor-President Hitler: see the blatant example of Apple Inc. paying 1% taxes, with the full backing of Obama!

And the symbol of all this fascist, oligarchic drive, has been the so-called Obamacare. I criticized it thoroughly when it was first proposed, in countless, unambiguous essays. However, criticizing idiots for idiocy, or the corrupt for corruption, is as clever as bashing one’s head on a brick wall, in the hope of curing a headache. Criticizing Obamacare was suicidal, for one’s reputation as a progressive. All it did was burnish my reputation as a “racist”(never mind that I am zero racist, with family originating from two continents and Pacific Islands).

Not Just A Sixth Sense, But Also A Sensory Organ

Many who are for Clinton are rabidly so, seemingly more interested with insulting Donald Trump than by the (extremely important) issues themselves. Thus I got really surprised yesterday. Yesterday happened the event of the little boy who said the emperor had no clothes. Except that it was a rather big boy, named Bill, and the emperor was Satan himself, fully under the covers of a caring attitude.

Ex-president Bill Clinton criticized President Barack Obama’s so-called “signature” policy reform Monday while on the stump for his wife, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, calling Obamacare “the CRAZIEST THING IN THE WORLD“. Strong words. Out-Trumping Trump on the subject.

Speaking at a Democratic rally in Flint, Michigan, the former president ripped into Obama’s Affordable Care Act (ACA) for flooding the health care insurance market by private companies vying for market share, and causing premiums to rise for middle-class Americans who do not qualify for subsidies.
“So you’ve got this crazy system where all of a sudden 25 million more people have health care and then the people who are out there busting it, sometimes 60 hours a week, wind up with their premiums doubled and their coverage cut in half. It’s the craziest thing in the world,” Clinton said. In further depiction, Bill Clinton said average Americans were “getting killed” by Obamacare. (Schools are actually pretty much dying from it, especially private schools, or even giant public university systems, such as the University of California.)

Wow. Those Clintons are really determined to get back to the White House. They are even ready to tell it as it is.

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Often the obvious is the hardest to enunciate, if it wallops Conventional Wisdom. Yes, under Obamacare, Premiums have exploded, so did “Co-pays” and access to doctors has shrunk. When one divides the public in ten slices, according to income, only the lowest one had profited from Obamacare. In other words, healthcare has been made worse for most, so that Obama and his wealthy supporters can claim to be progressives. Actually, Obamacare is the last, and most spectacular victory of the spirit of greed. It is “Obamagreed” or “healthgreed”, rather than Obamacare, or healthcare. Running care for profit has never worked, and cannot ever work: care and greed appeal to different hormones.

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One generally considers that there are five senses: hearing, touch, sight (ophthalmoception), taste (gustaoception), smell (olfacoception). However, the ability to detect other stimuli beyond those also exists, for example temperature (thermoception), and kinesthetic sense (proprioception, because muscles have stretch receptors), and also pain (nociception).

Finally balance (equilibrioception) is not just a sense, but it has its own organ, located in the inner ear. When people are in space, experiencing no gravity, the sixth sense coming from the semi-circular canals comes into conflict with the sense coming from the eyes.

And now even Bill Clinton is showing Common Sense about that emperor with clothes of greed, Obamacare. Lack of Common Sense is not the ultimate corruption, but it is close (only the grossest violations of love and care are greater) . Yes, it should be known as “Obamacraze”. Thank you.

Patrice Ayme’