IPCC, INFLUENCED BY ITS SPONSORS, IS TOO OPTIMISTIC: 3 Degree Celsius Rise Already In Paris!
The United Nations’ International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) aspires to please its sponsors, namely the plutocrats who control the nations which constitute the UN. Thus the IPCC knows that, to look serious, it shouldn’t look scary, or depicting a world that cannot happen, in the opinion of plutocrats. Plutocrats have organized the world we have, in which 93% of the energy comes from making CO2. A different energy system, not depending upon making CO2 could have been deployed. But it was not, in great part because the plutocracy in power is infeodated to making CO2. It’s a fossil fuel plutocracy.
So the IPCC makes climate predictions which are ridiculously optimistic. For example that, to limit the rise of global temperature at 1.5 Celsius, one would need to reduce CO2 emissions starting in 2020 (yes, next year). This will not happen, because, first, the emissions are augmenting, and accelerating… in 2019. Second, there is enormous CO2 in the system, and the global rise is now 1.1 degree Celsius…. Also, in its computations, the IPCC omitted the factor that matters most, Antarctica… Because too little was known about iceshields to incorporate them in computations. That’s dishonest: computations could have been made of the most optimistic case, and the most pessimistic case (the later being what I call catastrophic calculus).
So the IPCC mumbles that we may fear a rise of 2 or 3 degrees Celsius by 2100. But actually, this is the threat, now.
The old temperature record in Paris, established over more than half a millennium, was 40.4 Celsius, in summer 1947 (one of a couple of exceptionally warm years). On July 25, 2019, it reached 43.6 Celsius.
Paris shimmering in the heat, 25 July 2019. Most cars were outlawed by Anne Hidalgo, Mayor; one 3.8 Euro ticket bought public transportation for the entire day
So picture this: a jump of 3.2 Celsius, six Fahrenheit… So much by going up by 3 Celsius in 2100… as the worst possible case! To know the future rise of an average it’s enough to know the rise of the outliers… Another point: temperate vegetation is not made for tropical temperature. An excursion into dry season tropical temps can be enough to kill it.
Conclusion? What lay ahead as worst possible case is rather an eight (8) degree Celsius rise by 2100…. This may sound crazily exaggerated, but I was in Paris the day of the record high. How likely was that? Not very: most of the time, I am not even in France! the capital was eerie in those conditions. The tubes of the Pompidou museum the picture was taken from were probably around 130 F (55 C)… unlivable… So, if we get peaks in 2019 as high as the worst predicted for 2100…
Meanwhile, record fires put one third of gigantic Russia under smoke… As much burning in one month in the Arctic as in eight years prior… CO2 is exponentiating.
The bottom line is this: go to Patagonia. There, the glaciers melt so much, few reach the sea. Antarctica starts 800 kilometers south (500 miles). Generally one seems to lose one degree Celsius per 200 kilometers polewards. That means that Antarctica is four degrees Celsius away from Patagonia (at sea interface). So a rise of four degrees would turn Antarctica into Patagonia…. However, most of Antarctica’s rock mass is BELOW sea level. One can look at the picture in:
https://patriceayme.wordpress.com/2015/03/21/west-antarctica-melting-amazon-not-helping/
Now, of course, the IPCC sets the worst possible case in 2100 at a three degree C rise… just below obvious massive melting of Antarctica, and this convenient “science’ no doubt pleases the sponsors of the IPCC…
Patrice Ayme
