Archive for the ‘Global Warming’ Category

Glacial Warm-Up Not Cool

October 18, 2015

Nietzsche, following others, notably Hinduism, believed in the “Eternal Return of the Same”. Nothing could be further from the truth: wherever we look, we see change. Even our sun is a second (or more) generation star. This means the Sun is (partly) metallic, and metals are crucial for life as we know it (or can imagine it). And even for creating a magnetically shielded Earth.

Meanwhile in Israel, nearly 10% of Israeli Jews (more than 550,000) live in the so-called “Occupied Territories” which basically no nation, not even the Israel’s official poodle, USA, recognizes as belonging to Israel. Palestinian society is crisscrossed by Israel security services, to the point all what Palestinians can do is grab a knife… The colossal rage therein has not found a bridge to the “Islamist State”.  All hell will break loose if it does.

Meanwhile, climate change is accelerating. Clearly, the same is not returning. In California, the glaciers are condemned. This below is Lyell glacier on the 4,000 meters high mountain of the same name, highest point of Yosemite National Park:

Similar Change At The Poles Is Baked In: Only Inertia Slows It Down

Similar Change At The Poles Is Baked In: Only Inertia Slows It Down

[Image National Park Service; Lyell, a breakthrough geologist, learned his science at the university of Edinburgh. With Charles Darwin. In Scotland, Lamarck’s discovery of the great age of the Earth, and his theory of evolution, was taught, and astounded the youngsters. As Lamarck’s studies of mollusk fossils’ gravely contradicted the Holy Book, they were not taught in England.]

It is likely that glaciers will be gone from the Sierra Nevada within five years (except for the Palisade glacier, which may hold out a couple of years more).

Evil is often born in the eye of the beholder. The Nazis found this out, the Israelis seem determined to find out. Yet, who can blame them? Greater forces are at work.

And what is the empire of goodness to do? Well, stay in shape. In military shape. In 1914, and again in 1940, the forces of goodness were taken by surprise, and the catastrophe of a really full holocaust of civilization was barely avoided: don’t forget that, in the end, the Nazis wanted to kill everybody… Including the Germans. After all, this is the method Stalin used with the Soviets, chuckling all the way (at least, according to Winston Churchill who was there… and according to a little of interpolation of historical facts). The most troubling aspect of Stalin’s mass murdering, human rights exterminating ways, is that it was the only method which could defeat the Nazis. Having to choose between certain death and ignobility at the hand of Stalin’s “blocking sections”, and taking their chances fighting Nazis, Soviet soldiers naturally opted for the latter.

Russian armed forces have been modernized, including very long-range cruise missiles (and Russian TV claims they can go all over Europe…)

The combination of climate warming and galloping demography is at work in Africa and the Levant.  It’s a microcosmos  of what will ambush all of humanity soon. One more reason to learn how to dominate it.

It will require mental force, and then physical force to dominate the situation. Mental force will have to be considerable. Because we erred so long the wrong way, deliberately confusing civilization and abomination. So now we have abomination (Islamist state, Saudi Arabia, Putinistan, etc.) parroting civilization.

As I see it, the largest scale historical evolution of the West went this way. In the last century, or so:

My basic, order zero explanation of the Africa-Levant mess is simple, I proffered it many times:

1) The USA, or rather, the powers that were, in the USA, used Islamism/”Anti-colonialism”, first incarnated by the Great Bitter Lake accord, as a weapon of de-Europeanization of the immediate neighborhood of Europe. (All the four present crisis zones are within four hours subsonic flight from Brussels.)

2) In the guise of “freeing” the people (that is, put them at the mercy of Wall Street/London supported dictators, from Morocco to Pakistan), European pseudo-intellectuals (Sartre, De Beauvoir and other collaborators, etc.) betrayed Europe and supported the USA plutocrats’ basic scheme (hiding their true purpose, taking their orders from Wall Street, below Marxist-Leninism mumbo-jumbo: who could have suspected anything?).

3) This has been, ultimately very bad not just for the Levant/Africa, but even for the USA, as it favored the rise of EVIL RULE (Pluto Cracy) there. As plutocracy rose, everything else went down, from the Middle Class, to freedom, economic and social opportunity, and the rate of scientific and technological progress.

4) Europeans are directly responsible, because, aside from yours truly, I have seen nobody bring forth this thesis. Instead collaborators such as De Beauvoir and Sartre were lionized, let alone comrade Stalin, and the now much reviled Kamerad Adolf.

One cannot fight what one does not understand what it is, whatsoever. Western populations and intellectuals have understood nothing to the plutocratic phenomenon. (Marx, Proudhon and other pro-socialist thinkers condemned capital, throwing the baby with the bath; Sade, Nietzsche focused on power so well, they were not taken seriously, except by their very pale, half-intelligent imitators…)

I agree many countries in Eastern Europe are racist, and that this is a moment of education for them. We should not hesitate to use force, starting with verbal force to make them understand that it’s high time to cut the racist crap. If they want to persist, help to the offenders (may Orban’s Hungary) ought to be suspended.

There is probably at least ten million people in France, or the French diaspora, of recent total, or part African/Levant origin. Most, including yours truly, are perfectly integrated in Western civilization (having seen the alternative), and often more French than even an old racist like the Catholic chauvinistic fanatic, De Gaulle (tolerance is French, contemplate those who elected Julian in 358 CE, or Clovis, a century later Charles De Gaulle’s racism and bigotry was not French, it had to do with the “white race” and lack of esthetic taste such as detesting minarets).

There is no return of the same. Yet, the progress accomplished is often less than imagined. It has definitively been established that Neolithic (“Prehistoric”) humans in Europe could perform limb amputation and trepanations. The prehistoric ones apparently mastered anti-septic, antibiotic and pain killing conditions enough to do so.

We have progressed much. But not as much as we need. We need to progress much more, right away. Lest, of course, we prefer to live Israeli style, killing our fellow youth, just because it looks… Semite. The irony is impressive.

Patrice Ayme’

 

Non-Linear Cold Blob Rising Over North Atlantic

October 9, 2015

The reason life survived on Earth for so long, and blossomed into animals, and now mind, is that the planet is equipped with homeostatic mechanisms (homeo means similar in Greek, and stasis, standing still). However, those mechanisms tend to be geological.

Human civilization is now having an impact on the biosphere of a violence probably never seen before. The changes are faster than what geology, or even life, can accommodate.

Some will brandish the impact of the Yucatan asteroid, and claim that was worse; however that’s just a theory: the biosphere was clearly under stress at the time from the Deccan Traps eruptions, and had been under that stress for hundreds of thousands of years, if not millions. At its worst, the Asteroid was just the straw which broke the Camel’s back.

2015 will be the warmest year since the end of the Eemian, 115,000 years ago. So why are record low temperatures appearing just south of Iceland? Yes, record lows, lower than ever recorded.

While The Rest Of Planet Is At Record Warmth, Off Iceland, Record Colds Are Achieved!

While The Rest Of Planet Is At Record Warmth, Off Iceland, Record Colds Are Achieved!

That was fully expected, and a demonstration of Non-Linearity of the incipient global warming. A phenomenon is linear when it looks like a line. Global warming is not going up like a line, as some places are warming at a rate ten times higher than the average, and some regions are cooling (and some are cooling spectacularly, off Iceland and some seas around Antarctica, for reasons related to warming).

The Dryas events were extremely fast and pronounced cooling events which happened several times during the period 10,000 years to 15,000 Before Present. Some lasted around a millennium, others, just a century. They vanished as fast as they came. They are named after a tundra flower, the Dryas. In Scandinavia forests were replaced by tundra graced with Dryas (hence the name). In Britain, average temperature collapsed to minus 5 degree Celsius, and glaciers formed at elevation.

These spastic events of drastic cooling, while, overall, de-glaciation was going on, long remained a mystery. Overall, the great glaciation which had brought glaciers down to New York, was on its way out, the planet was globally, irresistibly warming. So why would temperatures collapse in some places around Greenland by 15 degrees Celsius? The solution to the Dryas events’ spastic glaciation riddle? The same as always! Warming is non-linear.

What’s the theory? The details are uncertain, but we know that the Gulf Stream (aka the North Atlantic “Conveyor”) shorted, literally: analyses of deep sea sediments have shown this. The conveyor sends an enormous current of warm tropical waters northward.

When the warm tropical waters become very cold between Iceland and Spitzbergen, they sink to the bottom of the sea, and head south. This sinking, plus the pushing by trade winds in the tropics, is what provides the energy of the Gulf Stream.

However, if the warm tropical waters are capped by a very cold, but light sweet(er) water lid, they will get cold early, and sink before Iceland. This is what happened in the Dryas events.

 And It Is Happening Again, Albeit On A Smaller Scale

And It Is Happening Again, Albeit On A Smaller Scale

Was it in response to a sudden influx of fresh water from Lake Agassiz and deglaciation in North America, and Greenland? Sudden freezing there would have removed the freshwater lid, hence the brutal switchback to warming after the brutal cooling. By the way, the sea level rising speed responded quickly, by a factor of three. After the typical Dryas cooling, oceanic rise rebounded to 18 millimeter per year right away (this shows that those who expect a slow rise of sea level rise are deluding themselves, or, more to the point, are trying to delude us!)

Nowadays a Dryas-like mechanism would have to rest on the melting of Greenland alone (that’s the only place with significant ice). This is, of course, insufficient, but summer 2015, cool and rainy over the northern North Atlantic is evidence that the effect is on. Scientific analysis confirms it. See: “Exceptional Twentieth Century Slow Down of Atlantic Ocean Overturning Circulation” (Nature, 23 March, 2015).

The exact nature of what is going on at this point is a matter of debate among experts. What is sure is that something is going on.

The Atlantic Conveyor Is A Subtle Thing, Yet Dominates Glaciation In The Arctic

The Atlantic Conveyor Is A Subtle Thing, Yet Dominates Glaciation In The Arctic

A similar situation beckons in Antarctica, where ice shield melting creates a freshwater lid all around which in turn freeze, extending the ice cap in the Austral winter.

When considering nonlinearity, subtlety and surprises are of the essence. This is true in physics, as it is in psychology, history, or politics.

And the morality in all this? The USA has played god. The European Union made a honest to goodness effort to reduce CO2 emission, while the USA, paying lip service to the opposite of what it was doing went right ahead, with its factory, the Plutocratic Republic of China, to use and abuse fossil fuels as never before.

So now what? Is god still American, as usual? At first it seems so: the USA started to frack massively and massive amounts of fossil fuels were extracted from the USA’s generous soil. When American companies tried the same in Poland, it failed: the underground god (Pluto?) did not cooperate: Polish soil is adverse to fracking.

Here comes the punchline: sea level has been rising fast along the Eastern seashore of the USA.  Actually, three to four times faster than the world average. That’s more than one centimeter per year.

Why? Imagine a traffic jam. Or rather a crash ahead: things come to a halt, cars, water piles up behind. Maybe the Washington politicians will soon have to learn to swim, and not just against the tide of world public opinion.

The USA is going to be punished with its own instruments. Meanwhile 20 countries formed the V20, a group of twenty countries whose existence is immediately threatened by global warming, although they caused it not.

A Two Degree Celsius rise of temperature is indeed way too much: nonlinearity is upon us. Evil is always nonlinear.

Patrice Ayme’