Archive for the ‘Globalocracy’ Category

Real Danger: Natural Runaway Warming Triggered By Man-Made Warming

July 22, 2017

When one looks at climate change, one should not look back, and whine that there was always change, as silly deniers do. One should look forward, ponder how bad it’s going to get, all too soon, and see the necessity for a carbon tax (or, more exactly, set-up worldwide carbon cost compensation).

Yes, so far we have only seen directly-man-induced global warming: the CO2 percentage went from 280 parts per million until 410 ppm (In truth, 490 ppm, as I have long explained, and will, again, below). In any case, 280 ppm up to 410 ppm, that’s an increase of 130 ppm. 130/280 = 46%. if one supposes that the obstruction CO2 presents to infrared light is proportional to its presence, then the “forcing” of the greenhouse effect should have been augmented by 46%. 

Moreover, indeed, one has to add to this man-made gases which have a greenhouse effect up to 100,000 times greater than CO2. That means they capability to block infrared radiation, and so to confine heat in the lower atmosphere instead of letting it escape to the cosmos is 10,000 times greater than CO2. 

Talking only CO2, while forgetting CH4 and NO2, is unscientific. Not to say stupid and criminal. Criminal in the sense of ultimate mass destruction.

Those greenhouse contributions of NON-CO2 manmade greenhouse gases amount to 25% of the total anthropomorphic contribution. So the real CO2 equivalent ppm is 490 ppm, not 410 ppm. An augmentation of more than 61% since 1789 CE. (And even that is an underestimate: because it overestimates the NO2 contribution in 1789 CE, say. In 1789 CE, there already was man-made methane, CH4, in the air, from massive pastoralism in the last 7000 years (some think that prevented a glaciation!). However, in 1789 CE, there was no NO2 whatsoever: NO2 is created only at high temperature, say by a diesel engine, when gases get hot enough to burn nitrogen in the combustion chamber!).

This is not a music the blissfully ignorant commons want to listen to. But they should:

To put all of this in perspective, the genus Homo has not evolved under such circumstances. Antarctica ice cores, 800,000 years old, show a density of CO2 of only 185 ppm.

In any case, 490 ppm, guaranteed to be 500 ppm in CO2 equivalent is well above the point at which Antarctica loses, or gains, its beech forests. 500 ppm is well above the Antarctica equilibrium point. The melting of the West Antarctica ice shield is thus guaranteed. The serious scientific question is now whether West Antarctica will melt within decades, as I believe, or centuries. That incoming disaster was long obvious. Only at the Paris Climate Conference, the IPCC, the United Nations Panel in charge of studying climate change admitted that I was right, and they were wrong, the temperature rise should be limited to ONLY 1.5 Centigrade, not to two degrees Centigrades:

Unfortunately last year, in 2016, the rise was 1.2 C, that is 80% of the way up to 1.5C… 2017, so far, runs close behind.

Exponential rise now in evidence (at last)? Look at the last few years…

(It used to be that scientists well-financed by those who loved fossil fuels, and their admirers in academic management, including university boards, and fuel plutos addicted governments pretended that the stability of West Antarctica was guaranteed for 5,000 years. Serious scientific papers full of gravitas, ladies and gentlemen, used to pontificate that no ocean would seriously rise for 5,000 years. Just like that. After all, why not say whatever, like Valley Girls, since it kept them greedsters rich and esteemed by the best with power (aristo-crats)? Scientists used to believe in the stability of the Holy Trinity, after all…)

It is strongly scientifically suspected that the last time Earth had comparable levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide that we have today was at least three million years ago, during the mid-Pliocene (then of course there was no CH4 in level in level comparable to what we see today, as cattle was less abundant, thanks to all too many lions, and no NO2 whatsoever).

Back then, global average temperature was about 3.6–5.2°F (2–3°Centigrade) warmer than it is today. Ocean level was much higher, by about 15–25 meters. So this heat and this sea level rise are now unavoidable. Already.

Back then there were camels in the high Arctic, as far north as one can go without swimming:

The global density of carbon dioxide increased rapidly in the past couple of years, thanks in part to a strong El Niño which, lasted around two years (that unusual situation is a consequence of the strong planetary warming). El Niño patterns generally shift the location of tropical rains, often leaving tropical forests dry, thus more susceptible to fires — fires that, in turn, release a lot of stored carbon into the atmosphere. But direct human activities — like the burning of fossil fuels for transportation or electricity, or the conversion of forests and grasslands into developed areas or farmland — have also contributed to the rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide at a rate never seen before.

Thus we see the real problem: manmade warming, from all these gases triggers supplementary effects which, by themselves, augment the warming. For example, the more ice and snow melts in the polar and mountainous areas, the more those areas absorb sunlight into the ground, augmenting the melting and warming, year around.

Man-made warming, which has been just a bit more than linear, is in danger of waking up strong exponential warming driven by natural phenomena which human activity would have triggered.

Once those strong natural exponential have been triggered, the warming will be runaway, and out of human hands. The analogy is being in a very dry forest full of deliciously smelling plants waving happily in a very hot wind. If one light a match, it will contribute to the warming, but not that much. Drop the light on the ground, watch the bushes catches fire: at this point natural warming is launched. Soon the fire gets to the crowns of the trees, an unstoppable inferno arises.

Some deniers anxious to win their daily bread, will insinuate that I am claiming that Earth will turn into Venus, without proof. No, not quite. What I am saying is subtle, and it’s experimentally backed-up by what happened in the past.

First of all, we have seen it all before, indeed, during the Permian-Trias mass extinction, 252 million years ago (more on that some other day, when, like today, I am travelling, and I have time only for an obvious essay…). Secondly, the runaway effects on Earth tend to be strongly limited after a while: if it gets way too hot, for example, there will so many clouds, from the steaming oceans, that the ground will be in permanent darkness, and, thus will cool off.

Moreover, the cause of the problem, humanity, would have been put to death, humanely or not, so Earth will have just to wait a millennium or two before enough CO2 will have been recombined in volcanic, and other soil to be removed from the air.

The present rise in CO2, and the rises of temperature and ocean acidity it brings can only be transient, on geological time scale. But it will rush, quasi-instantaneously, on such a scale, to a new equilibrium.

The carbon intense countries are playing with fire. There is so much European countries can do: France is down to 5.1 ton of CO2 emission per capita per year (and much more drastic measures have been taken, such as making carbon burning cars unlawful). The USA, Canada, Australia are above 16 tons per capita, per year. They have to be persuaded to cease and desist. The rest of the world will follow.

Burning Trump himself,  for real or in effigy, may feel good, yet it is neither recommended, nor sufficient, helas…First of all, burning such a mass of decomposing carbohydrates would noticeably augment the CO2 level globally. Secondly, there has been enough words, and empty insults. It’s time for action.

The only really significant action is a global carbon tax. Even Trump, who globally ridiculed himself by rejecting the Paris Climate Accord, like a bloated brat having a fit, could regain some of his lost honor, if he blurted on the international scene, that he has understood only a carbon tax would work, and promote it.

Patrice Ayme’


Globalocracy, Obama, Trump, High Water

November 15, 2016

A week ago today, Trump was sure to lose, the globalocrats were saying from every roof. A week ago today, the plutocracy owned media was red-hot hysterical against Trump, a lonely guy, while Hollywood was surrounding Clinton, singing, praising, celebrating her, insulting him. Bruce Springsteen made a long speech before a concert, psychoanalyzing Trump, telling us what a pervert egoistic psychopath he was (I am sure horny Bruce is trying to be invited at the White House now).

A week ago, the establishments, from dumb academia to corrupt Main Stream Media, were sure that my year old prediction that Trump would beat Clinton was assuredly madness. Intellectually corrupt Krugman was filling up pages of crooked polls supposed to demonstrate Clinton’s intrinsic superiority and manifest destiny (as if how well one polled had anything to do with ideas, and was of any bearing! But that is what one expects from dumb people grasping at straws). 

A week later, the fascist corporations which profited so much from Obama’s rule are down 10% on the stock market. The aghast Googles, Booked Faces, Bad Apples, Tax Cheating, Ruthless Amazons, & their captive or capture media, Corrupt Electrifying Generals, Micro Softs in the head, etc. They had a good deal with the Deep State: pay no tax, then expand on the empire worldwide, using corrupt justice and corrupt political leaders, worldwide…Trump was very clear he was not going to persist with that deal, thus joining Snowden, Wikileaks and yours truly.

Having Discovered The Wall Already Exists, Trump Concedes that "a fence will be enough in some places". Existing Wall Between USA and Mexico.

Having Discovered The Wall Already Exists, Trump Concedes that “a fence will be enough in some places”. Existing Wall Between USA and Mexico. Notice there is also a fence. And two patrolling roads.

Idiots will bemoan the collapse of corrupt technological monopolies doubling as spy agencies. The opposite is true. Those giant fascist corporate monopolies of the global corruptocracy have ruined technology and the Patent System, in particular.

Obama gave a press conference. Obama was subdued, meditative. Trump’s election has made him much more reflective. One should say: philosophical. Politics is practical philosophy. In substance Obama said: People have spoken D T will be the next president. That’s how democracy works. It takes a while for people to reconcile themselves with that new reality. We differ on a  whole bunch of issues so I am concerned, yet the office of the president changes the office holder, including his/her mood.

Obama praised Trump for his connection with the American People. He said that Trump saw some things others had not seen, and created a movement. Indeed, he did: the post-election analysis is out, and the results are shattering. Compared to Romney, Trump gained 8% on Hispanics (so Clinton touring with a would-be murderess once promoted by Trump, did not turn out as well as expected, surprise, surprise…)

One thing I disagreed with was Obama drinking from a styrofoam cup. What about one of these nice White House embossed ceramic, re-usable cups? Styrofoam, and no-use plastic things are going to be outlawed. Show us the way, Barry!

Obama legitimately said that his was the most ethical administration. Yes. And well, no: Obama did not control to lobbying mood. High level officials left his administration early, to go out and earn multi-million dollars incomes. The way out of that is to outlaw lobbying for years after leaving government (Trump has suggested a lobbying block of five years; I would make it ten years against income, five, free of charge).  

On the globalocracy, Obama said correct things. Finally. But he was not very clear that globalocracy should never, ever, contradict local democracy (except when it is a war authorization, as the French Republic got from the United Nations before striking in Libya to save Benghazi.

By the way, on Syria, Obama said the situation was now a mess, and there is nothing obvious one can do. Right. That’s why Assad, and his closest entourage, should have struck down, when France was ready to go it alone with the USA. Nothing wrong about the two top military powers of the West striking together a rogue, mass murdering dictator. Rogue, mass murdering dictators should always be struck. First, because of the danger of contagion through example. 

My idea was just to replace him with some other Alawite general. On Libya, the ball was dropped. Now it has to be picked up again. An empire has to be extended.

Obama was asked what he thought of Trump, after talking to him one on one for 90 minutes; he called Trump “pragmatic”. Trump will need pragmatism to sail the Acqua Alta. Here is a picture of Venice, November 2016:

Flooding, Worldwide, Is Accelerating. As Expected. Trump Has Already Made Noises That Renewables Are An Economic Asset of the USA.

Flooding, Worldwide, Is Accelerating. As Expected. Trump Has Already Made Noises That Renewables Are An Economic Asset of the USA.

I think that the interdiction of being elected more than twice in a row is correct, but somebody like Obama should be able to run again, sometimes in the future. So an advice to Obama: get your loud mouth, smart ass wife in politics. She would make a good president, sometimes in the future, come to think of it.  

Trump spent 90 minutes talking one on one with Obama. In a tight schedule, the meeting was supposed to last only 15 minutes. None of this is demanded by the US Constitution. And some transitions, even modern ones, have been extremely nasty, complete with ripped phones. Trump talking about Obama:“I told him I will look at his suggestions, and out of respect, I will do that.” Trump said he also looked forward meeting with Obama many times in the future, apparently to profit from this well of wisdom.

Meanwhile Trump was interviewed, and was boringly reasonable all over. Yes, the Wall with Mexico could just be a fence in some places. On hundreds of miles, the present wall is just deadly desert. A Wall would save hundreds of lives a year.

Trump is forced by law to accept a presidential salary. So he will take a one dollar a year salary. (instead of 400 K). He also says:”there is so much to do, we will not be big on vacations.” Trump is also digging in about terms limits for politicians, in a full confrontation with the Republican held Senate.

Trump was given a security briefing, a while ago, with top generals. He listened. Then he asked:”Do you know what a continuous pour is?” Nobody did. Finally a top general confessed his ignorance. So Trump explained what it was. Superficial message: I know stuff, too. The Economist was dismissive of Trump, saying he knew nothing. I think that it is rather the editors at The Economist who know nothing outside of what their masters tell them. Actually Trump may be the best prepared president. Ever. After all, he is a 70 year old builder of great buildings, and a business empire. When Obama got to power, he was smart, but all too young and inexperienced.

(And please don’t tell me JFK was experienced. Yes, he was a great war hero, and that made him experienced. And a Senator, and a scion of plutocrat, worth billions. However, as Allen Dulles pointed out:”That little Kennedy, he thought he was god.” Hint: nothing that a few bullets from several directions could not cure… JFK had uncautiously fired Dulles from his own creation, the CIA… But now the CIA has created the Daily Kos, which feeds the sick minds of the little protesters in the streets, and the situation has got worse…)

So what is a continuous pour? When building a great building, the foundation, a giant concrete pool, meters thick, has to be poured in one flow. So concrete trucks line up, sometimes for many city blocks in the case of a giant skyscraper (like Trump Tower). Then the pour is effected, in a matter of hours, truck after truck, with up to 16 trucks dumping concrete simultaneously. In California, the world’s largest pours have seen more than 40,000 tons poured over 24 hours (giant towers in California have also the world’s deepest foundations, around 80 meters, out of respect for giant quakes).

Obama did not know about continuous pour. That is why he waited the end of his doomed presidency for a constant pour of executive orders. A president who wants really to change things will have to engaged in a continuous pour. Trump is perfectly aware of it, that was his secret message. (BTW, FDR did the mother of all continous pour; his transition from Hoover was full of hatred. FDR cruised on a yacht, for weeks, full of contempt for the lame duck president…)

Meanwhile, the super Moon, in combination with global warming, flooded Miami Beach. Trump is getting flooded, even immersed, by reality. Right away. Expect him to love it: that man loves to fight. The Wall he will have to build is the one with the ocean.

Patrice Ayme’