The Third World War Started. It’s Anthropological

Abstract: Putin’s nuclear threats to all made clear as early as February 2022 that his invasion was a world war. Yet, many regimes are for Putin, they are just afraid to say so. Worldwide, the countries supporting the old fashion invasive genocide of the Kremlin in Ukraine are more primitive philosophically: they like advanced wisdom less than the ignorance that used to reign. 

Those Putinophile countries are easy to spot: they tend to be the least democratic countries.

This is another reason why the world war has to be won As Soon As Possible. Indeed those are early days. World wars are best won in early days. So far, China, impressed by the West, and what is at stake, has been careful. Should the Kremlin make great strides against Ukraine, however, Putin may suddenly get more military allies, and the war would extend.

WWIII is a war of one wisdom against another, a progressive wisdom striving toward even more advancement, and an anti- wisdom which consists in claiming that advancing wisdom is the problem, and the solution is authoritarianism, also known as good old fashion fascism, now with nukes.

Now these less advanced democracies are not just less advanced in wisdom, they are less experienced in the viciousness of the fight of democracy against tyranny. In the West, it goes back to the Atenian statesman Solon (2,550 years ago). 

… Not that our knowledge is good enough in that conflict: imperial militaristic Roman fascism and its mythological dog called Catholicism are still the object of an obsequious cult…

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AUTHORITARIAN And OLIGARCHICO-PLUTOCRATIC REGIMES CAN ONLY ADMIRE PUTIN:

1. Fascist countries tend to support Putin, because he is a kindred spirit… and a last chance to stop democracy. There are of course exception: Rwanda’s Kagame regime, for example was created in Washington, which knows where all the bodies are buried. Saudi Arabia too will think twice before rebelling against the West as historically the West (Anglosphere, Japan, South Korea) is its big ally against Iran which historically has occupied parts of Arabia sometimes for centuries, and Arabs and Persians have been historical enemies since Alexander…)
2. To claim that Germany, which was manipulated into becoming full of gas, a slave to the Kremlin and privileged support of Beijing is more democratic than, say, France is fraught: what if great leader Merkel, obstinately blind to Putin’s atrocious nature, was actually a KGB agent? Would Germany look as democratic? Or is the imperial role of Germany inside Europe, at the level of industrial policy a marker of democracy? Germany can treat say, Slovenia or Greece, as client states. Does that make Germany less democratic? Yes. But not in the criterion of the panel above. The Kremlin would quickly annexed all the small countries, except for the existence of NATO. In the 1930s, not only did it annex and used genocide in Poland, but didn’t annex Romania only because it was afraid of Hitler [1].

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ANTHROPOLOGICAL WAR:

That Russia launched another phase of its war of elimination of Ukraine is not surprising. The policy started in 1240 CE, when the Mongol collaborator Alexander Nevsky (not his real name) became “Prince of Kyiv”. Kyiv had just been annihilated by the Mongols for daring to resist the invaders. 

Ever since the occupants of the Kremlin were obsessed by a mentality of total control of as much of the world as they could get their hands on, and that policy has been entangled with internal dictatorship. The oligarchic dictatorial mentality was pervasive through religion and literature. It was also permeated by brutality, which made it effective. For example, nobody wanted to live from potatoes in Siberia, so the Czars deported there millions of opponents, and in the end succeeded to make most of Siberia a Russian colony, and there, by Russian one has to understand somebody who deeply believed in the Kremlin’s mission. Brutal? Yes. Would anything else have worked? No. At some point an empty Siberia would have been invaded by the Chinese multitudes, as Czar Stalin explained.

Obama the Weak, another collaborator of Vladimir Putin, gave the Kremlin tyrant a green light for the invasion of Crimea and then the Donbass (Bassin of the Don). Huge offshore oil and gas may be off the Crimea, and the Kremlin, for centuries, has been obsessed with acquiring control of the Black Sea. The Donbass, long the center of heavy industry, is still full of interesting minerals. Southern Ukraine is an extremely productive agricultural area, with rich soils and plenty of water, feeding half a billion people. 

Putin’s land grab is in the best Kremlin tradition, and it’s also according to the best fascist imperialist mentality, thus all would-be plutocrats, tyrants and their hangers-on are motivated to see Putin succeed against the We The People mentality.

Some in the West have been surprised that Russia did not collapse economically. This is due to a confusion between GDP, Gross Domestic Product, and PPP, Price Purchase Parity Product. Obnubilated by the raw Russian GDP, roughly the size of that of Italy, they forgot that GDP reflects only international trade standing, not the internal economy. The Russian PPP is much larger than its international component. It was nearly 5 trillion dollars before Putin’s attack on Ukraine. Moreover, Russia has a complete economy at its disposal, with the world’s largest landmass, 17 million square kilometers, nearly as big as the USA plus China… The only thing Russia lacks is a positive attitude to democracy and the subsequent creative activity it fosters. 

So the attack of Putin’s Reich on Ukraine is the case of a large and wealthy country attacking a weak and small one. But one can’t accuse the occupants of the Kremlin of being creative: the Russians gave that same exact argument to an unbelieving Adolf Hitler in 1940.  “A great power [Russia] cannot be threatened by a small country [Finland]. Hitler:”Your existence is not threatened by Finland!” Molotov:”Our moral existence is threatened by Finland!”

What was the moral existence of Russia? Dictatorship! Lenin and company, following Marx, called it “dictatorship (of the proletariat” Nobody knows what the “proletariat” is, so “dictatorship” is all that’s left [1].

The Third World War started on a small scale. But so did the Second World War, which started in 1931 when the rogue Japanese army in Korea went on the attack and conquered most of Manchuria in 12 days. Manchuria, 1.5 million square kilometers, is more than twice the size of France, Texas, or Ukraine. Nobody did anything about it, so it led to de facto military coups in Japan, and a world mentality of landmass power grab and military coups which infected Italy, Germany, Spain, etc (The First World War started as a plot and conspiracy by Germany, but it was conceive to achieve surprise…).

The present conflict WWIII is existential: representative democracy against representative oligarchy. Thermonuclear weapons give it punching power.

This is an anthropological war. Democracy, real democracy, one human, one vote is the incarnation of human ethology. Dictatorship is the consequence of civilizational fascism, which gives civilization its military edge. 

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There is a science and technology to making democracy work. Rome was handicapped by vast distances and slow communications which made it hard to extend democracy out of Latium (this observation that democracy was local was thoroughly debated in Rome in the period 150 BCE to 87 BCE and brought the Social War. And, some have said, the fall of the Republic). Modern representative democracy is an advance in complex understanding and corresponds to more advanced wisdom. Reciprocally, the love of old fascism, blatant in Russia and China reflects an attachment to ancient values (authoritarianism, patriarchy, anti-homosexual values, anti-feminist values, etc.)

After the crushing of Greek democracy at the hands of Macedonian generals Antipater and Craterus, dictatorships became ubiquitous until they got slowly reverted, with fits and starts, throughout the European Middle Ages, with its numerous Parliaments and republics, blossoming with the English revolutions of the Seventeenth Century and especially American and French Republican revolutions of the Eighteenth Century. 

The increasing democratic and open society spirit was typically examplied by steam power: known in antiquity, slavery made it redundant. However a French engineering professor, Papin, developed it, and built the first steamship. Exuberant English businessmen, in particular Watt, stole the invention, because the economically open society enabled those engineers to exploit it (in complete opposition with imperial fascist Rome, which blocked innovation in engineering).  

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Nazism, and its “Third” Reich, adopted and reinforces forces which presided to the rise and establishment of the Second Reich: militarism, hyper nationalism and antijudaism. It was to a great extent malevolent adopted mentalities: militarism came from Prussia (which was created that way by a crusade of the Teutonic knights), nationalism  was borrowed, misinterpreted, from France (which had unified Germany twice), and antijudaism came from the fascist Roman empire and its Christian dog. 

Nowadays, much of the primitive antidemocratic anthropology is also borrowed from here and there in past traditions which are often revitalized by tyrants of tyrannic plutocratic organizations. Putin dug out and revived the old Kremlin imperialist mission… Just as crafty operators from the deep plutocratic state dug out, revived and excited old mentality tied to Islamism and autocracy to make it easier to get oil and graft out of the Middle East (the US used Khomeyny’s Shia against the Iranian democracy of Mossadegh, and the Muslim Brotherhood to create a mess in Egypt in the hope of using Nasser… but that backfired for a long time….).

As I repeat all the time, a world war can be aborted. Had the USA allied itself to France in 1933, or any time before 1940, the full horror of world war two would have been avoided. It was a matter of decency.

Now of course, France could not have been made into a client state of the USA in 1939, and the US would have just reinvigorated rivals by helping France and Britain (and a few million Jews) by helping France before 1940, and that’s why it didn’t do it… although the anthropology of France and the USA is nearly identical. 

And now, of course, Eastern Europe can be turned into a client area of the USA. Already nearly all of Europe has turned this way, by buying US weapons it will be stuck with for decades to come.The only exception is France, which has its own weapon system… So the USA has a clear and present reason to help Ukraine… A reason it didn’t have in 1939.

However, it is in the interest of the USA to spread the capacity for fighting around, among those with similar anthropology.

No respect for active and passive accomplices of genocide? It often fits just right with respect for our future, or that of our values, descendants and what not… Western anthropology is not just more advanced, it’s more advanced for being the closest to what humanity evolved to be.

Patrice Ayme

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[1] The map is to be taken with a grain of salt. First, large military democracies with nuclear weapons are the watchdogs protecting the herd of the sixty or so democratic countries (there are only three nuclear armed countries: France, UK, US). Being the most powerful states which have ever been, and necessarily ferocious in military protocols and precautions, they can’t be as nice and happy-go-lucky as, say, New Zealand. Divulging some secrets in these extremely dangerous nuclear states exposes perpetrators to… termination (one way or another; it could be some sort of social/career termination). And must have to. 

Second, small countries, say Costa Rica, can live under the umbrella of mighty allies: Costa Rica has no army, but, should a neighbor invade it, the USA would intervene. Countries such as Senegal or Gabon, have been protected since independence by their initial protector and creator, France. 

Third, a country such as Switzerland was built, by war, slowly over the centuries. Huge countries such as Mexico or Brazil or Mongolia let alone China, were vast empires created by military force, and must be, to this day, be kept together by force….

In other words, it’s easier to have democracy in Iceland or Norway, which interest nobody, than in countries such as France, a crossroad of Europe for dozens of thousands of years… 

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[2] Proletarius was the lowest strata of Roman society, citizens without property. It was exempted from taxes and military service, and served the state only by having children. Lenin was from such a wealthy family that his mother could pay for his exile in Western Europe…. 

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Kremlin Nazis To Flee To South America?

The imitation Nazis in the Kremlin are ironically considering fleeing to the same places as the original Nazis of 1945, in South America. Talk about a funny development! The end of The Times article quoted in an essay by Putin propagandists (!) “Pentagon gives Ukraine green light for drone strikes inside Russia” is the following… and it is most revealing (it’s also revealing that Putin propagandists would use articles highly critical of them by cherry picking a few quotes. Putin propagandists are smart!): 

“In public, Putin and other Kremlin officials continue to insist that their “special military operation” will be a success. Yet in private, the president and his henchmen are thought to have begun to make plans for an escape.

“Putin’s entourage has not ruled out that he will lose the war, be stripped of power, and have to urgently evacuate somewhere,” Abbas Gallyamov, a former Kremlin speechwriter who is now a political analyst, wrote on Telegram. Citing an unnamed insider, Gallyamov said the Kremlin was considering Argentina or Venezuela as safe havens. Igor Sechin, a senior Putin ally, is thought to be overseeing the project, which is codenamed Noah’s Ark.”

There you have it: reality in full: not even the “eternal friendship with China” will save the Nazis in the Kremlin from the same fate as the 1945 Nazis in Berlin. The entire planet, including India and China, have told Putin to stop with his nuclear blackmail. So Putin and his henchmen had to back down on their nuclear threats. Various political leaders who talked directly to Putin, have asserted this, including the French president and the German Chancellor (just yesterday). Absent the nuclear blackmail, the probability that Putin and his henchmen lose is more than 50%. Actually the Putin propagandists in Moscow, including the head of RT, have started to consider this, that they will be dragged at La Hague in front of the International Criminal Court. 

With characteristic ingeniosity, one of Putin’s master propagandists suggested to nuclear bomb La Hague, to avoid having to go there, but his colleagues were not that sanguine and expressed real fear that, like the Nazis of 1945, they and the “higher ups” would be tried for their genocide (Putin’s criminal organization has already stolen more than 40,000 Ukrainian children, which is a clearly defined act of genocide).

At Nuremberg, the Nazi propagandists, Rosenberg and Von Ribbentrop, were condemned to death and executed (there were 2 of them out of 21 of the initial trial of Nazi leaders).  

Stalin, Hitler and Mussolini were enabled by the grossest propaganda. Stalin killed 6 million Ukrainians in 1933 in the Holodomor (launched in December 1932). That genocide, in turn, encouraged Hitler to do the same in Poland, and then with the Jews and others (Gypsies, Soviet Prisoners, Ukrainians, etc.). Europe has learned that these dictators had been enabled by propaganda which played a crucial role in the rout of 1940. Accordingly Putin propagandists have been outlawed in Europe, and shut down. There is still some work to be done. The world’s largest land empire, 17 million square kilometers, is Russia, and Putin has used the war as a crafty way to draft minorities in priority, with the obvious goal of exterminating them. One more genocidal charge. 

It’s increasingly unlikely that Putin’s minion propagandists in the West will NOT be enough to save the Kremlin tyrant and his henchmen… Venezuela, here we come! Oh, I know, to believe Maduro would not surrender Putin to La Hague is another demonstration of the abysmal stupidity and lack of general knowledge of Kremlin’s strategists…

The criminal oligarchy in the Kremlin became arrogant for the exact same reason as the Nazis: they felt overconfident from the complicity they profited in the West (and helped instal them).

Patrice Ayme 

Nazi ratlines that spirited thousands of war criminals to freedom are revealed in a new book chronicling the murderous reign of a top foreign office official during the Third Reich.

9,000 Nazi war criminals fled to South America after WWII. Argentina welcomed up to 5,000 Nazis.

After 1945 the scale of the horror of the Holocaust came to light. Faced with unprecedented cruelty, much of the world responded with unprecedented vigor. The new term “crimes against humanity” was coined in the subsequent Nuremberg trials, as Allied lawyers called senior Nazis to account.

Yet fewer than 300 Nazis faced judgment in the Nuremberg trials in Germany while up to 9,000 Nazis by some counts were spirited away from Europe after World War II, helped by sympathetic agents and friends. [A less sympathetic France may have executed up to 40,000 Nazis and collaborators, many of them in expedited tribunals, though…]

The life of Horst Wagner, a man with the blood of at least 350,000 Jews on his hands, is detailed in Beloved Criminal: A Diplomat In The Service Of The Final Solution.

Wagner was the link-man between the foreign office and the SS In this role, he aided in the round-ups, deportation and extermination of both German and foreign Jews.

This first major work on him by Gisela Heidenreich is also an intensely personal one for the author – her own mother Edith met and fell in love with him during the war.

During his years in exile Wagner remained in contact with Edith by post, letters which her daughter uses in her work chronicling the escape routes and mini-Reich that the fugitives built for themselves in Argentina.

Heidenreich, who works as a family therapist, has the blood of the Nazi regime in her. She was born into a Lebensborn home – set up by the S.S. for unmarried mothers to give birth and donate their children to the Nazi state.

Her father was the commander of the SS officer school at Bad Toelz in Bavaria.

Wagner, she said, dreamed of becoming her stepfather after he began his affair with her mother.

After escaping from a Nuremberg jail in 1948, he later explained to Heidenreich’s mother how he was aided on his way to South America on the so-called Kloster Line, being given sanctuary in a number of convents and holy orders in Austria before heading to Rome. There the German bishop Alois Hudal, priest-confessor to the German Catholic community in the city, arranged for him to get a Red Cross passport in 1951. Hudal also arranged the paperwork for Franz Stangl, the commandant of the extermination camps of Sobibor and Treblinka, to flee to Brazil on a Red Cross passport using Vatican funds.

Carl Jacob Burckhardt, President of the International Red Cross in the years after World War II. In his 2011 book Nazis on the Run: How Hitler’s Henchmen Fled Justice, historian Gerald Steinacher chronicles Burckhardt’s anti-Semitism, as well as his penchant for helping Germans, including former Nazis…

And so on: worldwide criminal oligarchies are nothing new. The criminal Putin Reich was established with a lot of complicity in the West. Just look at (probable) KGB agent Merkel… But Putin and his KGB had agents all over the place… And the West profited from Russian oligarchs bleeding Russia dry…

Nuclear Decapitation Strikes: How Putin Wins With Nukes

PUTIN HAS NOTHING TO LOSE BY GOING NUCLEAR, AND A WORLD TO SURPRISE, SO THAT’S WHAT HE DESIRES: 

Since February 2022, Putin and his helpers have said, and repeated that, if they don’t get their way, humanity should go. The idea that if a tyrant does not get his way, humanity should disappear is new: on n’arrête pas le progrès. It’s found in some religious texts where angry, jealous gods get rid of humanity. Putin is the first tyrant who expressed the will to destroy all, and has the means to do so.

Putin drew nuclear red lines, assesses the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), and they have been crossed since, and Putin did nothing spectacular. See: SPECIAL REPORT: ASSESSING PUTIN’S IMPLICIT NUCLEAR THREATS AFTER ANNEXATION, Sep 30, 2022, observes that Putin did not renew immediate nuclear threats when he annexed four provinces of Ukraine, September 30, 2022. This gives a false feeling of security, and opens humanity to a Putin surprise.

However, ISW concludes that: “The more confident Putin is that nuclear use will not achieve decisive effects but will draw direct Western conventional military intervention in the conflict, the less likely he is to conduct a nuclear attack.” Indeed, indeed… As long as the “West” has somebody to talk to.

However the following is true:

1. Without Putin using nuclear weapons, Ukraine will recover all her lost territories, including Crimea.
2. Such an Ukrainian victory will be accompanied with huge losses for the Kremlin, in all ways. 
3. The catastrophic losses will bring regime change in the Kremlin.
4. Putin, although otherwise a complete idiot, may be smart enough to guess the preceding. So:

Let’s explore the unthinkable, where Putin does exactly what the “West” does not expect him to do.

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Helping Ukraine is not just a moral necessity, it’s a survival necessity. We can’t let inhumanity win, it will come for all of us, ultimately.

The United Nation determined in September 2022 that children as young as 4 were raped, tortured and killed in Ukraine, by Putin forces, in significant numbers. It is the necessity of survival for  humanity to fight against inhumanity.

We are going down an apocalyptic decision tree. In the short run, Putin is going to try to overwhelm Ukrainians with human waves… at least so goes the conventional thinking. As Putin sent mainly minorities to fight, this has the advantage of a genocide against minorities, for example the Crimean Tartars. Ultimately, though, this traditional Kremlin method will fail, against experienced, increasingly well armed, extrmely motivated Ukraine. 

And Putin should know this.

At that point, the best outcome, for non-Putin civilization, is that the Russian  military eliminates Putin. Putin also knows this. Putin should also know this. So Putin knows he does not have forever to win. 

So let’s suppose that Putin is not eliminated (while praying to all known divinities, and other imaginable, that he will be). 

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VLAD THE MAD’S BEST OPTION IS NUCLEAR ARMAGEDDON:

Putin then must terrify Ukraine into submission, by submitting it to nuclear bombing… and sooner rather than later. Terrifying Zelinsky and his government looks impossible, so the only solution is to eliminate them. 

Indeed, the smartest way for Putin to nuclear bomb his enemy is not by using nukes on the battlefield: Ukrainian forces are dispersed, armored, entrenched, mobile, Putin would have to use several nukes on a concentrated front, and on Ground Line Of Communications behind. The military advantage would be slim, if any; the world outrage would be great; NATO’s “devastating response” would consist into opening the spigot of full military help to Ukraine [1].Putin would argue he is using nukes on (just annexed) Russian soil to defend from a Neo-Nazi invasion, but the whole world would turn against him.

So using nukes as ISW expects him to do, striking troop concentrations and GLOCs, with several nukes, would bring more of the same to Putin, just worse. Alleging, as Putin did, that the US was the first to nuclear bomb, and so “created a precedent” is irrelevant: the US did not launch an invasion of Japan, and eben after Japan surrendered, did not invade Japan nor a fortiori annex it territory and claim that Japan had no right to exist. Instead of annexing territory, the US imposed the vote of Japanese women (immediately)…   

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DECAPITATION STRIKES ON UKRAINE: 

The war aim of Putin, expressed for decades, is to destroy the Ukrainian state. We saw above that he can’t do it conventionally, or with a dozen nukes… That leaves us with another obvious possibility, which would achieve the element of surprise. In his Art Of War, Sun Tzu wrote: In conflict, direct confrontation will lead to engagement and surprise will lead to victory. Those who are skilled in producing surprises will win. Such tacticians are as versatile as the changes in heaven and earth.

By trying a nuclear decapitation strike on the Ukrainian state, killing the Ukrainian leadership, Putin would achieve surprise.

How far from each other are the presidency, national assembly, department of defense and regalian ministries of Ukraine? The presidency and Rada (national assembly) are 500 meters apart. And so on. Putin could use a MIRVed rocket with one warhead going to the presidency, the other to the Rada, etc… Putin could launch one of his “Satan 2” missiles (the RS-28 Sarmat), and be done with the leadership of Ukraine. The warheads could be programmed to explode after impact, causing tremendous shockwaves which would destroy all very deep underground installations in Kvyiv. Then Putin would appear on TV, completely enraged, and accuse the “West” to have done it. 

The way Putin could pretend to look at such a war crime, is a win-win: he would have killed the “Neo-Nazi” leadership, and intimidated Ukraine into submission. After the decapitation strike on Kyiv, Putin could contact individual army commands in Ukraine, and order them to surrender, or to see the cities they are in, or next, be submitted to similar nuclear bombardment. 

What would NATO do? Well, nothing, because NATO DID NOT THINK ABOUT PUTIN GOING FULL WACKO.

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HOW TO PREVENT NUCLEAR DECAPITATION STRIKES:

First, imagine the scenario presented here, and feel its likelihood. 

Putin is a malefactor with only one concern: reconstitute the old Kremlin empire, and anything else is not tolerable. Only victory will bring him survival… another similarity with Adolf Hitler. 

It is a modern tragedy surpassing anything written in the past. One is dizzy, just contemplating the consequences. 

The Ukrainian government, and NATO, should keep this in mind, the possibility of a nuclear decapitation strike. Thus they should get ready, and MUST be blatant about it. The Russian military has to understand decapitation strikes would probably not work, ONCE COUNTERMEASURES are taken. Faced with this, the Russian military would perhaps draw the conclusion that it is the Kremlin which needs decapitation.

So the focus should be on dispersing the Ukrainian government, and military commands make them mobile… Well sheltered, and yet not too associated with large conurbations. Also the West should scramble to produce massively anti-missiles and anti-ballistic systems. There are a number of these systems in existence, but insufficient numbers, or developed by the US, France and Israel. Early versions of these systems should be sent to Ukraine, ASAP. 

If Ukraine and NATO take those precautions, and the option of decapitation strikes will turn into a probable ineffective nuclear slaughter all over Ukraine, the decapitation strikes option would be closed. 

Putin will then be reduced to multiple use of nukes on the battlefield, hoping that would scare Ukraine into submission. The problem of NATO and Ukraine will then be to make this nuclear battlefield behavior unsustainable [2].

But that would be a a lesser problem.

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PUTIN’S CRIMINAL DEMENTIA WAS LONG OBVIOUS, STOP UNDERESTIMATING IT… Especially when evaluating the future:

The present situation with Putin is no surprise to me: I wrote many essays comparing in detail Putin with Hitler for very good and deep reasons, the fundamental oligarchic organization of the world, more than a decade ago. Most “leaders” pretended to be surprised about Putin’s behavior in 2022. However, they egged Putin on, for decades, just as Hlter had been egged on, by western oligarchic predecessors. Self-declared “leader” Obama used to be Putin’s accomplice, a mafioso talking to another, through Medvedev, then “president” of Russia, in 2012:”Tell Vladimir I will be freer to do whatever he wants me to do, after the election,” said the corrupt “leader” over a hot mike… Obama, and Merkel, and the other corrupt ones led into “satanism”, Putin himself declared on September 30, 2022, knowing all too well what he was talking about. 

The satanic mood Putin was part of is extensive. An ex-friend of mine, Philip Short wrote a glowing biography of tyrant Putin, exonerating him for the crimes related to Chechnya in 1999, when Putin was already in charge.

I am sure Philip Short, once a big man at the BBC, was paid… Hey mortgages, you know, properties all over, castles in the Provencal sky… So were thousands of others… And, implicitly, they like the privileges, the money, the power, but they also would hate to fall victims of accidents, as happened to many oligarchs who did not faithful obey the nuclear Czar… Don’t we all…

So, if civilization wants to avoid being surprised by nuclear decapitation strikes, get ready for them…

Let me repeat slowly: Putin and his criminal oligarchic clique have lost the conventional war with Ukraine and democracy. Thus, Putin is tempted by a nuclear decapitation strike against what he calls the “Neo-Nazis” in Ukraine and the “neocolonial” “satanism” of “the West”. Nuclear strikes would be effective, because the West would have no answer. Ukraine and the West have to expect, take countermeasures, and thus, prevent this.

Patrice Ayme

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[1] Notice that, in this scenario, NATO would have had to switch to massive war production of sophisticated anti-missile systems… but that is neither easy, nor fast to do. France is ramping up the production of Rafale fighter-bomber, but many subcontrators find it very hard to do so. Production of the US HIMARS rockets is 9,000 a year. Ukraine is rumored to use 6,000 a month. Even expanding production lines for old-fashioned, unguided 155 mm howitzer shells can take more than a year. Guided and submunitions shells, as France and the US produce, take much longer to ramp up.

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[2] That would mean to enable the Ukrainian to hit Russian cities with conventional means.

Hypersonic Russian missile strike on Lviv, Western Ukraine, fired from Russia, 20 March 2022. Such missiles can carry thermonuclear warheads. Having a high probability to intercept them, as soon as they are fired from over Russia, would be a formidable deterrent, because Russian-made nuclear material would fall over the Russian empire.

IF YOU WANT PEACE, PREPARE FOR NUCLEAR WAR

SI VIS PACEM, PARA BELLUM NUCLEI

Any concession to tyrant Putin will make his bellicose drive worse. Appeasement will only tell him that he has got to be right, he is winning, and he is on the right path. We have seen that movie with Hitler. The drama with the Sudetenland in 1938 has much in common with the drama in the Donbas, including a dictator screaming that minorities were in mortal danger, and sham referenda: Hitler had been elected in part on the promise of protecting what he claimed were abused German minorities. 

Thus Pangermanism wanted to annex the Sudeten to Germany. However, Hitler was not so ridiculous as to pretend that the Sudeten inhabitants were victims of a genocide at the hands of the Czechs. He proposed an annexation referendum, overseen by the German army, though. The Czeks refused, France mobilized, so Hitler proposed a peace conference, at Munich, during which a piece of Czechoslovakia was given to Germany.

Putin’s discourse about a (completely imaginary) “genocide”in the Donbas is worse than Hitler’s raging statements about the Sudeten. A first attempt to propose a referendum of the Sudeten about annexation overseen by the German army was blocked by a war threat from France [1].   Hitler was given land at Munich in 1938… To appease him. 

That appeasement was not just a weakness, it gained time, the way France and the UK looked at it at the time (they were wrong). France and the UK did not have the USA with them, and Britain had basically no army (same as in 1914). The US was neither diplomatically, nor economically, nor politically or militarily with its parents, France and Britain. Roosevelt had named pro-fascist ambassadors to the UK and Germany, and hordes of US plutocrats were making the fascists regimes prosperous, well invested and fueled [2]. 

For many years, the New York Times, and other US media, did their best to ignore Hitler’s exactions, even while the German dictator was notoriously killing millions of minorities, and occupied democracies.

While Hitler was momentarily appeased, Britain was frantically equipping itself with a huge state of the art air force. France and the UK felt that time worked in their favor, militarily, because of their great empires.

Hitler invaded Austria in March, a day before a planned referendum on annexation by Germany (similar to Putin and his sham referenda).  After weakening Czechoslovakia militarily, grabbing its defense lines, Hitler invaded the rest. When getting ready to invade Poland, Hitler allied himself with the Kremlin (to add to his alliances with Italy, Japan and Spain). This time, France and the UK declared war.

The NYT, and pseudo-progressives paid by Putin, are at it again with the Kremlin nuclear tyrant: “If [giving part of Ukraine to Putin] happens, a territorial settlement will be reached and the global rules-based international order will be re-established”… bleats hopefully Mr. Brooks (who censored my comment contradicting his wish to give much of Ukraine to Putin) 

Appeasing a dictator who, because of his dreams of glory, threatened to extinguish humanity, is criminal nonsense. Putin is obsessed with taking Ukraine. Any negotiated settlement will just give him time to re-arm and return with greater force and greater threats. Feed Putin, like a bear, or a tiger, he will come back. The only way to end the threat is to eliminate Putin. If not eliminated, he will come back. 

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Hitler had to keep on attacking, lest the German army and Volk turned against him: too many things, including democracy and the economy, had turned sour in Germany (same with Russia today). The exact parallel is true in Russia today: war powers protect a dictator. Given any piece of Ukraine, Putin will come for more, including the Baltic and Poland

The New York Times did its best to ignore Hitler’s exactions, even while the German dictator was notoriously killing millions of minorities, and occupied democracies.

The NYT is at it again with the nuclear tyrant; the NYT, and many other media, propose appeasement with Putin: “If [giving part of Ukraine to Putin] happens, a territorial settlement will be reached and the global rules-based international order will be re-established.” This is criminal nonsense. It’s akin to appeasing a rapist who threatened to kill the victim and onlookers, by proposing to him to rape the victim just a bit, to reestablish order. Putin is obsessed with taking Ukraine. Any negotiated settlement will just give him time to re-arm and return with greater force and greater threats. He will come back. The only way to end the threat is to eliminate Putin. If not eliminated, he will come back. 

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We have an extremely similar situation now with what happened with Hilter and his fascist allies in 1937-1940. However, many have learned this history, and thus opted to act differently. This is why 27 European countries, including traditional neutrals such as Sweden and Switzerland are sending weapons to Ukraine. (Sweden and Switzerland helped Nazism for many years, often crucially), France is not taking orders from Biden, and yet, has switched to war production of many of its most sophisticated weapons, after sending 25% of its mobile high precision CAESAR guns to Ukraine.

The easiest way out of Nazism occurred in 1937 when the German High Command, led by General Beck, prepared a coup against Hitler. Stupidly, they searched for help in the Uk and US. The German army asked the US and UK to stand officially against Hitler (thus supporting France, Hitler’s dedicated enemy). The German army leaders would then make a coup, arguing to the German Volk that Hitler was an existential threat to Germany. 

 The best course for peace is then, as horrible as it may sound, to prepare for nuclear war. There is simply no alternative. Any concession to Putin is a concession to a group of criminals who threatened this week to “use strategic nuclear weapons against the West for their occupation of Ukraine“.

If the Russian army realizes Russia faces annihilation, it will make a coup.

If the West is ready to fight a nuclear exchange, the Russian army will find itself in the situation that German generals naively looked for in 1937: having a good excuse for a coup. So the West has to get ready, and has to scramble into world war mass production, especially of anti-missile systems [3] (which do exist; but recently the US had just one, around Washington, while France had eleven, and sent one to Romania to protect a major Franco-American base there…) 

Some will object that nuclear war is unthinkable, that I am thinking the unthinkable. But so did Putin, and for more than a decade. The strategy of going nuclear in a conventional conflict is called by Putin’s valets: “escalate to de-escalate“. There is little doubt that nuclear weapons should be unlawful. Only a few should be left, under UN supervision, in case a comet comes our way, or some rogue criminal organization develops weapons of mass destruction (chemical, biological, etc.), and needs to be taken out. An example of such a gang of criminals is the Putin gang. The UN has established that war crimes were committed, including rape, torture and execution of children as young as 4. Putin’s lovers, of which there are many throughout the West, have also to answer these crimes, which they approve of, by denying they happened, similarly to the most fanatical Nazis in 1945.

Their reasons are vile: we know Putin spent at least half a billion on infliuencers, worldwide. Those influencers using Kremlin propaganda should be jailed and prosecuted (in this order: this is the greatest war, we have to switch to military law and traitors to civilizations should be soped, that is, arrested.)

So we have a criminal gang, armed to the teeth with the world’s biggest arsenal of nukes. But nukes cost a lot of money to keep functioning as anticipated, and we have to rely upon the hope that there a re semi-decent individuals in the Russian military whose sadomasochism is not so high that they will try to destroy civilization. Meanwhile, scrambling for anti-missile systems, potential evacuation of cities, and reactivation of old Western nukes should be the order of the day.

As the old French saying has it:

“A la guerre, comme à la guerre”…

In war, as in war. 

Patrice Ayme

***

[1] The Czechs announced on 28 September 1938 that they rejected Hitler’s proposal of an annexation referendum (the  Godesberg Memorandum). France ordered the mobilization of 600,000 men. The Royal Navy was also mobilized the same day.

Hitler feared a war against Czechoslovakia, Britain and France. He agreed to Chamberlain’s proposal for a further meeting the next day, now at Munich, between four heads of government, Chamberlain for Britain, Hitler for Germany, Prime Minister Daladier for France and Mussolini for Italy, with no Czech (!!!) or Soviet participation. On 1 October, a pact was signed which provided for possession of the Sudeten Province to be transferred to Germany, with Britain and France guaranteeing the new borders of Czechoslovakia. On 1 October, German troops marched into the Sudetenland, which was immediately incorporated into Germany. Some 115,000 Sudeten Czechs and 30,000 Sudeten Germans, fled to what was left of Czechoslovakia. By 1 March 1939, the number of refugees,  including Social Democrats, Communists and Jews, was reported by the Institute for Refugee Assistance to stand at 150,000

***

[2]… to replace his friend the historian Dodd who thought war against Hitler was necessary. Throughout the war, US president FDR looked more interested in weakening France and Britain, and instrumentalized various fascists, Hirohito, Mussolini, Hitler, Franco and Stalin to do so. Warning: this is nearly 100% in contradiction with the official version of history… But that version is wrong, and that’s demonstrated in many of my essays, detail after detail… 

***

[3] Western anti-missile systems do exist; but recently the US had just one (built in cooperation with Norway), around Washington DC, while France had eleven, and sent one to Romania to protect a major Franco-American base there…

 

France pursued a series of nuclear tests from 1966 through 1996 at Mururoa Atoll, French Polynesia. This photograph is from the 914-kiloton Licorne (Unicorn) test, July 3, 1970. Fangataufa is permanently uninhabited. It is classified as a Common Military Zone. The zone includes the lagoon areas enclosed by the atoll and by baselines linking the closest points emerging from the reef on both sides of the channel. Entry is prohibited without authorization. A standard strategic missile on a French SSBM submarine carries a higher destructive power than the bomb above (as it can spread 20% more power over a much larger area with ten warheads. The same SSBM can carry 16 such missiles. The US SSBM can carry even more missiles. Together, France, Uk, and US have 22 such submarines…

Franco-British Strategic Nuclear Deterrence Is Considerable

Nuclear war may be around the corner, the deluded Putin, tail between his legs, is that crazy that he may not realize that his “escalate to de-escalate” insanity would be of no advantage to him and his criminal entourage. So it’s a good point to consider the main deterrent of the West: the strategic nuclear forces of the US, Britain and France (3 of the 5 powers allowed nuclear weapons under UN law). It turns out that, in a strategic nuclear exchange involving the ultimate weapon, the strategic nuclear submarines, the Franco-British contribution is equivalent to 50% of the US… No doubt that complicates considerably the computation of nuclear war planners who are criminal enough to work for Putin…

Who has a stronger navy: the United Kingdom or France (not counting nuclear submarines)?

Both European navies have Strategic Submarines Ballistic Nuclear. Four of them each. The French ones carry an armament of 16 M51 SLBM missiles manufactured by the Aérospatiale (now Airbus Defence and Space), plus conventional torpedoes and Exocet anti-ship missiles. The M51 missiles carries on a “bus” 6 to 10 MIRV warheads of 110 kiloton (kt) each, 8 times Hiroshima, with penetration aids, and a precision of 150–200 meters. One such missile could annihilate all the decision centers in Moscow (and millions of deluded Moscovites who watch too much Putin TV). The range of the M51 is secret, but believed to be around 10,000 kilometers (the same tech is used on the Ariane rocket).

These SSBNs are really Armageddon weapons… Yes Putin has them, sort of, namely at least on paper; but the devil is in the details: nukes have to work, and subs have to be undetected. France, the US, and the UK have dozens of hunter subs… Keeping nukes in good, that is explosive, order, cost a fortune (it’s unlikely all the 6,200 nukes of Putin work; it’s more likely that most of them, don’t work…)

To come back to France and Britain,

the two Navies are roughly comparable, and, the French having dutifully forgotten the tragedy of Mers El Kebir, and the Brits more than contrite about it, the two navies are more than friendly to each other. If Scotland seceded, British subs would use French bases. France Naval Group has launched its second 100 meter long nuclear powered Barracuda attack submarine, arguably the world’s most modern and silent sub. It is using a type of propulsion the US Navy plans to have around 2030… The Barracuda class subs can silence their nuclear reactors for long periods, something no other nuclear sub can do (yet). Hot nuclear reactors have always circulating water and tend to be noisy… whereas air independent diesel subs can made much more silent… and can be much more silent for a full month under water! The Barracudas have the best of the two technologies…
Although not directly strategic, such subs can hunt and destroy Putin and Xi’s subs…

One of the British SSBN used to be without nukes, but, considering the increasing Sino-Russian war noises, that has been reversed (nukes cost a lot of money to just keep ready to function; French nukes cost 5 billion dollars a year, just to keep them ready to explode with enough fresh Tritium, etc.). Also the French SSBNs have 100% French equipment, including French equivalents of the US Trident II. UK subs have US systems, US missiles, Trident II… Also the UK Navy uses Thales and other French electronics all over, for the UK subs and the UK ships. Thales is French (originally)… Thales also makes 24/7 in Belfast, Ireland, the British “NLAW” antitank weapons which have destroyed so many of Putin’s tanks.

British carriers are restricted to F35s, since they do not have catapults (which make the French carrier interoperable with the US ones; CATOBAR enables it to launch heavier, more capable planes).

The real defect of Franco-British defense is not quality, which is top notch, but having too few weapons. Macron, following Biden by a few months, has called the French military-industrial complex to go into a war mode. However the expanded French military budget has not been voted on yet, and it takes time to ramp up. Thales is producing nearly enough electronics for five Rafales a month.

All the British nuclear deterrent is in its 4 SSBNs… the French have the same number of SSBNs, but also also nuclear bombers and supersonic standoff 300kt nuclear missiles). So Franco-Britannia has 8 strategic nuclear subs so silent once two collided with each other while deep in the ocean… whereas the US has 14 such submarines… In other words, the nuclear strategic strike capability of the West is considerably augmented by the Franco-British arsenal. Just one of these 22 subs could kill of the order of 50 million people in 20 minutes, and as a French general officer commented:”We think that’s enough!”.

However, tyrant Putin has definitively demonstrated that this is not enough, because threatening the enemy with Armageddon does not help fight a conventional war.

British SSBN going back home in Scotland…

WORLD WARS LAST A LONG TIME, Because They Have Deep Roots

Arguably the “Sea Peoples” invasions was the first world war, 33 centuries ago. This somber plot accompanied, or caused the Bronze Age collapse, when nearly all advanced civilizations of Western Eurasia disappeared, followed by dark ages. Several Pharaohs commented on the Sea Peoples, including Ramses II. Later, in one of several texts in stone, Ramesses III wrote, in 1175 BCE, relating, among others, the annihilation of the end of the Hittite, Mycenaean and Mitanni kingdoms: “The foreign countries made a conspiracy in their islands, All at once the lands were removed and scattered in the fray. No land could stand before their arms…” [1]

Most of the military collapse of the Roman state happened swiftly (395 CE-406 CE)… however, the Germans had put Rome in military difficulties since Caesar (50 BCE)… And Rome was at war with itself since longer than that (and that war with itself caused the invasions, as Roman corruption and devolution was a crucial factor in the success of the Goths, say at Adrianopolis; see note [2]).  

***

The Mongol world conquest of the Thirteenth Century, spanned from Europe’s Adriatic Sea to China, Indonesia and Japan. That war also lasted half a century or so. (As I relate in Note [2], in the case of the Romans, the Mongol conquest of Rus was made possible by the deliquescence of the invaded lands. Kyivian Rus had become a military nebulous state… When the Mongols encountered stiff resistance in Hungary, they found the losses unbearable, and return thence they came…)

***

The war of the Spanish succession, the Seven Year War, the war against the French revolution (1792-1815), WWIi and WWII (1939-1945) were all long world wars. World wars are always long, because peace has to be preceded by economic and, or, demographic exhaustion of the participants, and, or of the defeated.

***

Terrorized by Putin’s nuclear threats, the democracies have taken 8 years to come to the serious rescue of Ukraine since Crimea got invaded. Even to this day, the fact that, barring a coup in Moscow, this is a world war, is not generally acknowledged, although more than 50 countries are helping Ukraine militarily. This denial of blatant evidence only extends the conflict. 

***

ECOLOGICAL CATASTROPHE OFTEN PRECEDES WORLD WARS:

Ecological problems often preceded invasions. Indeed, with Rome, the mines got exhausted after 100 CE, and that turned into a currency crisis, then a confidence crisis and an economic crisis, which brought invasions and “barrack emperors” (50 emperors or so during the Third Century).

Renewable energy, on which 5 trillon dollars was spent (roughly the annual GDP of Japan) has itself been slowed down by the fact it needs hydrogen (and derivatives) as an indispensable complement, to replace fossil fuels by green hydrogen. Instead of installing hydrogen, nuclear energy was de-installed, and new forms of nuclear energy, much safer, non weaponizable, and less polluting, were not funded (except in China and India). This mis-investment has created a world energy crisis. 

De-carbonification without nuclear and hydrogen is simply impossible, thus a fraud and a lie. The cost of that lie is the devastation of the biosphere, now clearer, one heat wave at a time. It was also a lie to believe one could have a civilization in common with Putin. All these lies are coming together nicely, and the result is going to be a crisis deeper than any seen before. Global trade is a necessity, in the present world organization, but it depends upon cheap energy… Just as food production depends upon water, the fundamental reason why Putin invaded the rest of Ukraine in 2022: Crimea was out of water, and the rest of Ukraine refused to provide it by the canal from the Kherson Oblast.

***

World wars have started for ecological reasons, for example the one of the “Peoples of the Sea” we started this essay with: there is evidence of plenty of extraneous factors incurring at the time: a megadrought, plus quakes, and volcanic eruptions, and also the rise of disruptive iron technology (which may have helped some invasions, such as the one of the Dorians; think Sparta). Famine arose at the time, bringing forth calls to help from the Hittite empire to their old rival, Egypt. Egypt sent grain to its old enemy! The Hittites got the grain from Egypt, but were soon invaded by the “Peoples of the Sea”, and vanished as a civilization… part of the Late Bronze Age collapse, which brought four centuries of Dark Ages to Greece, among other disasters…

“Ecology” has to be understood in the broadest term: when the Huns pushed the Alans, Goths and other Germans in front of them like frightened cattle, the Huns had slightly better recurved bows.  

We now have on our hands, potentially and enfolding, the greatest disaster in 66 million years: the anthropocene is causing several ecological crises, including the worst of them all, the GreenHouse Gas crisis. And the dominant species has the most powerful weapons, ever, by a very long shot… weapons so powerful that a medium nuclear exchange would be more devastating than a V8 volcanic eruption (as happens every 15,000 years in the average) 

An all-out world war, using nukes, will be pathological, and completely out of the ordinary, as defined in the history of life on Earth…

So how do we avoid a devastating world war, as the ecology becomes ever more difficult? By learning how to get smart and see far ahead in the landscape of solutions… The best way to avoid war is by having those vested most in the statu quo ante to be militarily superior in such an obvious manner than those who have interest to disrupt the established order, and thus make war, cannot do as the Sea Peoples did, plan war, and attack… because they thought hey had a realistic chance of victory. This is why and how the famous Roman adage:”Si vis pacem, para bellum” works… or more exactly, worked.

When the Roman empire was defeated, at the end of the fourth and beginning of the fifth centuries, what faltered was the will to go to war with all the means the Roman empire potentially had: no more than 100,000 warriors defeated 60 millions… Because those 60 million Romans mostly had lost, over centuries, the status of stakeholders they had when Rome was dominant as a Republic. So the world war which precipitated the fall of the Roman state (in which the Huns were crucially involved, and they came from Mongolia!) was even longer in preparation, than it was in execution, by a factor of ten, or more [2].  World wars, and their preconditions, are often enfolding in the longest time imaginable.  

After their costly victory in Hungary, the Mongol generals themselves said they thought they would lose against the Franks, as they remembered what had happened to their ancestors the Huns fighting in Gallia (first against the Franks… then the Franco-Romano-Gothic coalition). Oral tradition had passed, over eight centuries, from Huns to Mongols (with the Avars and Magyars somewhat in between): in the confrontation between steppe, mostly Mongolia originated, warriors and the civilized cities, one can speak of a world war which extended from Toulouse (which the Huns sieged with their Roman allies!) to Indonesia (which the Mongols tried to invade), over a millennium…

Civilization must be defended, sometimes with weapons in action, always through introspection first. 

Patrice Ayme

Hittite empire collpased around 1200 BCE, 32 centuries ago, one of many major collapses. Greece plunged in Darkness

[1] This is one of the many Egyptian texts in greater extent, from Ramesses III: “The foreign countries made a conspiracy in their islands, All at once the lands were removed and scattered in the fray. No land could stand before their arms: from Hatti, Qode, Carchemish, Arzawa and Alashiya on, being cut off [i.e. destroyed] at one time. A camp was set up in Amurru. They desolated its people, and its land was like that which has never come into being. They were coming forward toward Egypt, while the flame was prepared before them. Their confederation was the Peleset, Tjeker, Shekelesh, Denyen and Weshesh, lands united. They laid their hands upon the land as far as the circuit of the earth, their hearts confident and trusting: ‘Our plans will succeed!‘”^[83

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[2] Rome’s collapse, as a Republic, started around 150 BCE, and was complete by Theodosius I’s murderous religious edicts of 381 CE. Thus it took more than 5 centuries. The military collapse, though occured swiftly between 394 CE (annihilation of the Occidental Roman army by Theodosius !), and then 395 CE (invasion of Italy) and 406 CE (crossing of the frozen Rhine by German nations piercing the Frankish limes) or 410 CE (capture of Rome by the Goth Alaric, ally of Theodosius I). So we see that the deliquescence of the Republic by corruption took 50 times longer than its direct consequence, defeat by military invasion. We also see that just one bad leader, Theodosius, was mostly at fault… Just as one bad leader, Gamelin, caused the Fall of France in May-June 1940… Both Theodosius and Gamelin were not just stupid, but full of ressentiment (Theodosius against non-Catholic, perhaps because of his father’s execution) and Gamelin against the French Popular front of PM Blum (perhaps because Blum was a Jew, so Hitler was viewed as a lesser danger, as Gamelin himself wrote in his memoirs…)

To Avert Nuclear War, Convene A Conference To Outlaw Military Use Of Civilian Nuclear Power

OUTLAWING ATTACKS ON NUCLEAR WILL MAKE NUCLEAR ATTACKS LESS LIKELY… From A Mass Psychology Effect…

Nuclear power is crucial as base power for a carbon free future. I explained that keeping fossil fuels as base energy is a trick to keep fossil fuels at 84% of total energy.

Nuclearizing electric power production would have required having four thousand (4,000) nuclear reactors, worldwide… instead of 400. 

Disappointingly, the percentage of electricity that comes from low-carbon sources today is almost unchanged from the mid-1980s. Throughout the early-2000s this low carbon share actually regressed, greatly because of the shutdown of nuclear reactors.. 

Yes, electric consumption is only 20% of total energy consumption… So going nuclear on electric would not have solved all. (We need more such as hydrogen for transportation!)

***

Nuclear can be made very safe, and non-polluting. The only deadly civil nuclear power accident was in Ukraine at Chernobyl, a type of reactor (graphite-gas), power (way too much) and construction without containment, which are all de facto illegal in the West. Yes, Chernobyl should never have been built. (Ukraine has the world’s highest production of electricity from nuclear reactors, a distant second behind France.) 

By comparison, fossil fuels kill around ten million people a year, and probably much more.

The Orcs of Putin have attacked nuclear installations in Ukraine, and transformed them into battlefield. That should be unlawful. It is also a way to inure us to Putin’s military use of nuclear energy… Something he already did by threatening to destroy humanity with nukes if we don’t let him destroy Ukraine.

*** 

Dams were attacked in World War Two, causing great damage and loss of life. Now a worldwide convention outlaws attacks on dams, and it has been, so far, respected in Ukraine, which has several giant dams. Mr. Putin has not suggested that he would destroy dams to get his way.

Trying to outlaw attacks on nuclear installations right away would indirectly heighten a worldwide healthy alarm against Mr. Putin’s nuclear ways. Mr. Putin has weaponized the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, by stationing heavy weapons there. Mr. Putin also implicitly threatened to use nuclear weapons to make his invasion of Ukraine work.

Thus calling for a worldwide conference to outlaw attacks on nuclear installations would make it less likely, from general indignation, and the possible loss of allies that it would entail, that Mr. Putin would dare to use nuclear weapons (as using nukes is generally worse than attacking nuclear installations).

Hence there is an excellent reason to rush an outlawing of nuclear attacks, as Mr. Putin’s effective defeat in Ukraine makes it ever more likely that he will use nukes on the battlefield.

Whereas the three nuclear armed democracies (US, UK, France) have refused to declare they would never ever use nuclear weapons first, they would certainly agree to not attack nuclear installations directly, so they would support such an approach. Nuclear power is an important way to mitigate the CO2 crisis…

Under Putin, the Russian military decided to adopt a doctrine of “escalate to de-escalate”, which includes using battlefield nuclear weapons… First usage of nuclear weapons, or attacks against nuclear installations is not explicitly unlawful. However attacks against dams are. 

The Russian military may detonate a few nukes against concentrations of Ukrainian troops (a good reason to avoid those)… Hoping that the democracies, terrified by nuclear war, would then just submit. Thus NATO should create an appropriate answer, not just hope that Putin will not go crazy (as it is clear Putin is not analyzing the situation clearly, this hope is inappropriate).

Patrice Ayme

Russian Tank camouflaged in front of Zapo nuclear reactors 1, 2, 3 and 4… August 4, 2022. Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), which Russian invaders are now threatening to blow up, contains 1,200 tonnes of nuclear fuel. If Russia decides to commit a terrorist attack, the nuclear disaster will affect the territories of both Russia and Ukraine.
…Says Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration Head Oleksandr Staruk…

Ukraine Genocide As Official Kremlin Policy

It’s Putin’s full intent to turn his annihilation of Ukraine into an indefinite insurance for his dictatorship by fostering a terrible war which in turn justifies his tyranny. The intent is genocidal:”Fight to the last Ukrainian!” the Kremlin tyrant declared in July 2022… Yesterday. So the continuation of the war enables Putin to commit a genocide, Putin himself said, turning genocide into policy!

Putin warned 7/7/2022 that his invasion of Ukraine could continue until the “last Ukrainian is left standing,” Reuters reported. During a speech to parliamentary leaders, Putin claimed Russia was just getting started with the war in Ukraine, more than four months after he invaded his neighbor.

“Today we hear that they want to defeat us on the battlefield. Well, what can I say? Let them try,”

In a sense this is a situation which was never encountered before: genocide is officially part of the calculation, and the rescuers of the assaulted country are accused of it, by Putin! Putin’s argument is that the 50 allies of Ukraine are committing a genocide by extending the war.  

OK, on second thought, the Mongols had such a policy: they would show up at a city, order surrender, and declared that resistance will cause annihilation. This is what they did to Kyiv, the capital of Rus, then, massacring everybody after a short siege, except for the leading defender himself. Kyiv, then one of Europe’s largest cities, was annihilated… Muscovite Rus would rise by doing the exact opposite: allying itself as executioner and taxman for the Mongols, led in this by the famous Alexander Nevski (and this is why the statues of the later are being removed in Ukraine…) and then his grandson Ivan I Money Bag… 

***

The way Putin looks at it, this strategy of genocide ensures victory. And, actually, Putin is winning, in the sense that the territory that he controls is a large part of the wealthiest Ukraine. As a bonus, he is destroying plenty of Ukrainian wealth and lives….

The West can’t stay in the war if the West does not militarize its economy… Russia did this a few days ago, by passing the appropriate laws… From now on, industry, private or public can’t refuse military orders, whatever they are, such as working 24/7. This is a world war, and it’s time for democracies to act as if it were… Not doing so will only make the situation worse…. All the way to “escalate to de-escalate”, that is the Putin doctrine of using nuclear weapons.

As long as the West does not fight this world war with complete determination, Putin feels that he is likely to win it, and thus keeps on going waging war, causing irreversible damage, including psychological damage. When, after many months of this Putin will realize that he is not yet winning, as he should in his opinion, he will naturally feel that this delayed victory is the result of his own insufficient exhibition of determination… So he will use nukes at that point to make sure the West feel in its bones that it will never match Putin’s determination. MAAD: Madly Atomically Assumed Determination.

This is no small war, it’s the war of the Russian autocratic tradition, of the “empire which never ends” (quoting Putin again, in a statement he made in 2016…)… a traditonal Kremlin expansion war, in its nuclear version, as Putin’s computation, from the start, was to use nuclear weapons one way or another! That sets his place in history, next to Alexander Nevski, who subdiued the independent republic of Novogorod, in the name of his Mongol overlord… And yes, Alexander Nevski is a saint of the Russian Orthodox church…. And Putin, starting in the 1990s, rebuild the Kremlin military in the spirit of a crusade, with the full help of patriach Kyrill… The one with watches so expensive (several dozens of thousands of dollars), that they had to be erased from official pictures… By the Kremlin…

Patrice Ayme

A Putin explosion in Ukraine… In 2017…. Some of these explosions are nuclear weapon strength…

P/S: The essence of the essay above was sent as a comment to the New York Times for

Ukraine and the Contest of Global Stamina
The conflict’s long-run trajectory seems increasingly likely to be shaped by whether the United States and its allies can maintain their military, political and financial commitments to holding off Russia.

… My comment was censored… Banned, rejected, condemned, ostracized, vilified and excommunicated… Mind control as the NYT is exquisite… Probably where Putin learned it…

Must Win World War Of Plutocracy Against Democracy

The nuclear tyranny in Moscow is the sort of regime civilization cannot share the planet with: to conquer land it fancied, Putin threatened “any country which intervened with consequences you have never seen in your history” . 

To surrender to the threat of the usage of nuclear weapons from one’s opponent after first resisting a war of conquest, is worse than surrendering to any previous tyranny in history. Indeed no tyranny in history had the means to destroy humanity, nor expressed the explicit desire to do so as Putin and his accomplices did.

What is democracy? The attempt by civilization to set people free from oligarchy (the rule of the few). What is plutocracy? Literally, hell-power. Oligarchies aren’t sustainable, without  calling upon evil power, because people are not made to be slaves, and they increasingly resist (inside the dictatorship, or outside).

Historical dictators are in general proof of this turn to hell-power: their methods get worse with time,  until they get destroyed.

Civilization was rendered possible by power, but, without democracy, that power can exponentiate in the hands of a few, who then, absolutely corrupted by power, will use ever more evil methods until they become so stupid, they are finally destroyed.

Nuclear energy and other new powerful tech made oligarchs more powerful than ever, and the plutocratic culmination it brings to the planet is so dangerous that civilization will not be able to survive it.

Only democracy makes civilization sustainable. Giving Putin a reward, any reward, for his evil ways invites future dictators to be even worse with threats of nuclear war. 

Because Putin threatened civilization explicitly with annihilation is the ultimate crime. This is why he and his mentality must be destroyed. Nuclear war will not be avoided by doing what those who threaten it want democracies to do. Our survival requires punishment.

Star Fish nuclear explosion at 11 pm, fifteen seconds after detonation over Johnson Island as seen from Maui at on top of the volcano, at 3,000 meter elevation, 1200 kilometers away. The nuke was exploded 400kms above ground, in space, instantaneously shutting down much electronics in Hawaii from E-M blast..

Patrice Ayme

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P/S: A shorter version of the comment above replied to a NYT editorial calling to surrender Ukraine to Putin. My comment, mostly what is above, was carefully censored. Now traitor president Macron of France, apparently a small greedy mind, called to once again for the victory of Putin (not as something that he wishes, but as something that he, and his German sidekick, Chancellor Olaf Scholtz see as ineluctable… while pointing out, in complete contradiction, that Putin should not be humiliated (if Putin can’t be defeated, how could he be humiliated?) I was deeply irritated by the NYT censorship, so I sent another comment, which was published immediately… I will show this one next, because it encapsulate the problem.

If You Want Peace, Prepare For The Worst

Some advocate negotiating with Putin. They are hopeful: it’s not Putin who put the babies to death. Maybe NATO, whatever NATO is. That Finland wants to join NATO demonstrates it.

How does one negotiate best, with the devil? Long fork? Faustian bargain?

Very, simply, to negotiate with Satan, for the best, one should expect the worst from one’s interlocutor, and believe only the worst. 

Putin will make war until NATO and Ukraine get tired. Or so he seems to hope. This is probably not going to happen: too many in NATO and Ukraine have realized the evil of Putin’s tyranny. Too many remember Hitler and know they are next… because Putin explained his ruscist vision of history. So then what if NATO and Ukraine, which have more than a billion citizens, all living in democracy, that means, thinking in parallel and most of the most creative thinkers of the planet do not get tired? Putin’s Russia at some point, ravaged by war and sanctions, will stop being a Great Power, for all to see, having lost treasure, manpower, clout, its army and economy… while exhibiting its lack of smarts, and experiencing consequences thereof. Putin will then just feel powerful because of his nukes. 

We have to get ready for that day… and it will come all too soon.

Ever since Ivan I “moneybags”, the Kremlin empire has stabilized itself with foreign wars which enabled it to call all opponents traitors to the fatherland, thus kill or exile them. This mentality of expanding abuse was inherited from the Mongols who had invaded and destroyed Kievan Rus. Inner peace by terror through subjugating outer war created the world’s largest durable empire… and an entire civilization entangling war with a church. 

This mentality of expanding abuse contradicted the earlier quasi democratic traditions of Russian Kyiv. War regimes invite dictatorship, which became the Russian form of governance… or even civilization. In many ways Lenin was similar, yet more authoritarian than all the Czars before him (and he massacred more Russians). Many revolutionaries, for example Rosa Luxembourg, saw this and opposed it. 

Ukraine was subjugated by the Kremlin with various tricks and invasions in the last three centuries. Between Stalin and Hitler, Ukraine suffered up to 14 million citizens killed in as many years.

This war is between the democratic principle and and the principle that terrorizing nuclear dictatorships, monarchies with unbound power, the fascist principle, now with quasi divine power, should guide humanity. This is the moment when civilization has to save itself… by destroying the fascist principle. So this is an existential situation. Either we bring enough artillery, or we don’t. 

Some will object that Putin is so deranged, he will use nukes to avoid losing. The potentiality of that abomination gives us even more reason to vanquish him. This is a world war, and like WW2, it is starting slowly. Hitler was easier to oppose early on, before he unleashed his terror society. Same situation with Putin. 

The Kremlin has more than 2,000 “small” nukes (Hiroshima, Nagasaki).  The US has a few hundreds, and France discontinued its “Pluton” tactical nuke system. The smallest French strike now is 300 Kt, from supersonic bombers (twenty times Hiroshima)… that’s “strategic”.

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As Putin has plenty of small nukes and NATO mostly only has big nukes, Putin apparently believes he can exploit the baby nuke gap as part of his unscrupulous doctrine of “Escalating to De-escalate.” “I don’t think there is any such thing as a ‘tactical nuclear weapon,’” Secretary of Defense, ex-top general Mattis told Congress in February 2018. “Any nuclear weapon used any time is a strategic game-changer.” The commander of the US nuclear forces acknowledged in 2021 that no one knows if using low-yield or tactical nuclear weapons will trigger a full-scale nuclear war. Yet, as I said, this is irrelevant: the Putinists and rucists believe that using nukes… de-escalate!

Thus we need to persuade the rucists that such is not the case: using nukes will escalate… otherwise we will end, in the best possible case, as their slaves and toys.

To prepare for a nuclear war, which will come if a coup doesn’t come first, plans for evacuation of cities and massive prompt construction of anti-missile systems is a must. Also there will be no other choice than threatening to provide Ukraine with similar nuclear devices  

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A coup would be better… Generals and colonels who may have engaged in war crimes should be told, laws should be passed, that they can’t be prosecuted if they neutralize the crazed idiot who gives them insane criminal orders now… in a war we have to persuade all influential Russian, terroristic nuclear tyranny can’t win.

In any case, the more than 40 military allies of Ukraine, it’s a world war, remember… have to get ready for the worst, and this is why Finland has decided to apply to NATO, and entered, with Sweden in a military alliance led by the UK, involving many of the countries which were immorally and idiotically neutral in WW2 (Netherlands, Danemark, etc…)

Getting ready for the worst means scrambling the construction of new weapons… But those to fight nuclear war should get priority (in particular ABM systems). This is what getting ready for the worst means.

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Please do not believe I love war, just because I don’t want to please Putin: I had known, and written, that Putin was capable of this, for more than twenty years. Why was I so sure of Putin’s depravity? Fundamentally because he is a hater, smart at being an idiot, with a completely biased ethno view of history. And this was clear in how he got elected to start with, becoming popular thanks to engineering a genocide in Chechnya. This was already as dirty as it gets, and the Russian population falling for it, made it worse. Having risen through a genocidal plot makes Putin an illegitimate president from the start, another argument that putschists could exploit.

Biden, Senator Graham, and others, maybe following what was recommended here first, were right to call for Putin’s removal. That would be best.

Putin Delendus Est!    

Patrice Ayme    

The 280 mm gun in front fired a shell with a Hiroshima size bomb (15Kt) exploding 10 kilometers away after 11 seconds:

Cathedral of the Russian army, 100 meters tall, erected under Putin.