Archive for the ‘War And Civilization’ Category

WORLD WARS LAST A LONG TIME, Because They Have Deep Roots

August 11, 2022

Arguably the “Sea Peoples” invasions was the first world war, 33 centuries ago. This somber plot accompanied, or caused the Bronze Age collapse, when nearly all advanced civilizations of Western Eurasia disappeared, followed by dark ages. Several Pharaohs commented on the Sea Peoples, including Ramses II. Later, in one of several texts in stone, Ramesses III wrote, in 1175 BCE, relating, among others, the annihilation of the end of the HittiteMycenaean and Mitanni kingdoms: “The foreign countries made a conspiracy in their islands, All at once the lands were removed and scattered in the fray. No land could stand before their arms…” [1]

Most of the military collapse of the Roman state happened swiftly (395 CE-406 CE)… however, the Germans had put Rome in military difficulties since Caesar (50 BCE)… And Rome was at war with itself since longer than that (and that war with itself caused the invasions, as Roman corruption and devolution was a crucial factor in the success of the Goths, say at Adrianopolis; see note [2]).  

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The Mongol world conquest of the Thirteenth Century, spanned from Europe’s Adriatic Sea to China, Indonesia and Japan. That war also lasted half a century or so. (As I relate in Note [2], in the case of the Romans, the Mongol conquest of Rus was made possible by the deliquescence of the invaded lands. Kyivian Rus had become a military nebulous state… When the Mongols encountered stiff resistance in Hungary, they found the losses unbearable, and return thence they came…)

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The war of the Spanish succession, the Seven Year War, the war against the French revolution (1792-1815), WWIi and WWII (1939-1945) were all long world wars. World wars are always long, because peace has to be preceded by economic and, or, demographic exhaustion of the participants, and, or of the defeated.

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Terrorized by Putin’s nuclear threats, the democracies have taken 8 years to come to the serious rescue of Ukraine since Crimea got invaded. Even to this day, the fact that, barring a coup in Moscow, this is a world war, is not generally acknowledged, although more than 50 countries are helping Ukraine militarily. This denial of blatant evidence only extends the conflict. 

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ECOLOGICAL CATASTROPHE OFTEN PRECEDES WORLD WARS:

Ecological problems often preceded invasions. Indeed, with Rome, the mines got exhausted after 100 CE, and that turned into a currency crisis, then a confidence crisis and an economic crisis, which brought invasions and “barrack emperors” (50 emperors or so during the Third Century).

Renewable energy, on which 5 trillon dollars was spent (roughly the annual GDP of Japan) has itself been slowed down by the fact it needs hydrogen (and derivatives) as an indispensable complement, to replace fossil fuels by green hydrogen. Instead of installing hydrogen, nuclear energy was de-installed, and new forms of nuclear energy, much safer, non weaponizable, and less polluting, were not funded (except in China and India). This mis-investment has created a world energy crisis. 

De-carbonification without nuclear and hydrogen is simply impossible, thus a fraud and a lie. The cost of that lie is the devastation of the biosphere, now clearer, one heat wave at a time. It was also a lie to believe one could have a civilization in common with Putin. All these lies are coming together nicely, and the result is going to be a crisis deeper than any seen before. Global trade is a necessity, in the present world organization, but it depends upon cheap energy… Just as food production depends upon water, the fundamental reason why Putin invaded the rest of Ukraine in 2022: Crimea was out of water, and the rest of Ukraine refused to provide it by the canal from the Kherson Oblast.

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World wars have started for ecological reasons, for example the one of the “Peoples of the Sea” we started this essay with: there is evidence of plenty of extraneous factors incurring at the time: a megadrought, plus quakes, and volcanic eruptions, and also the rise of disruptive iron technology (which may have helped some invasions, such as the one of the Dorians; think Sparta). Famine arose at the time, bringing forth calls to help from the Hittite empire to their old rival, Egypt. Egypt sent grain to its old enemy! The Hittites got the grain from Egypt, but were soon invaded by the “Peoples of the Sea”, and vanished as a civilization… part of the Late Bronze Age collapse, which brought four centuries of Dark Ages to Greece, among other disasters…

“Ecology” has to be understood in the broadest term: when the Huns pushed the Alans, Goths and other Germans in front of them like frightened cattle, the Huns had slightly better recurved bows.  

We now have on our hands, potentially and enfolding, the greatest disaster in 66 million years: the anthropocene is causing several ecological crises, including the worst of them all, the GreenHouse Gas crisis. And the dominant species has the most powerful weapons, ever, by a very long shot… weapons so powerful that a medium nuclear exchange would be more devastating than a V8 volcanic eruption (as happens every 15,000 years in the average) 

An all-out world war, using nukes, will be pathological, and completely out of the ordinary, as defined in the history of life on Earth…

So how do we avoid a devastating world war, as the ecology becomes ever more difficult? By learning how to get smart and see far ahead in the landscape of solutions… The best way to avoid war is by having those vested most in the statu quo ante to be militarily superior in such an obvious manner than those who have interest to disrupt the established order, and thus make war, cannot do as the Sea Peoples did, plan war, and attack… because they thought hey had a realistic chance of victory. This is why and how the famous Roman adage:”Si vis pacem, para bellum” works… or more exactly, worked.

When the Roman empire was defeated, at the end of the fourth and beginning of the fifth centuries, what faltered was the will to go to war with all the means the Roman empire potentially had: no more than 100,000 warriors defeated 60 millions… Because those 60 million Romans mostly had lost, over centuries, the status of stakeholders they had when Rome was dominant as a Republic. So the world war which precipitated the fall of the Roman state (in which the Huns were crucially involved, and they came from Mongolia!) was even longer in preparation, than it was in execution, by a factor of ten, or more [2].  World wars, and their preconditions, are often enfolding in the longest time imaginable.  

After their costly victory in Hungary, the Mongol generals themselves said they thought they would lose against the Franks, as they remembered what had happened to their ancestors the Huns fighting in Gallia (first against the Franks… then the Franco-Romano-Gothic coalition). Oral tradition had passed, over eight centuries, from Huns to Mongols (with the Avars and Magyars somewhat in between): in the confrontation between steppe, mostly Mongolia originated, warriors and the civilized cities, one can speak of a world war which extended from Toulouse (which the Huns sieged with their Roman allies!) to Indonesia (which the Mongols tried to invade), over a millennium…

Civilization must be defended, sometimes with weapons in action, always through introspection first

Patrice Ayme

Hittite empire collpased around 1200 BCE, 32 centuries ago, one of many major collapses. Greece plunged in Darkness

[1] This is one of the many Egyptian texts in greater extent, from Ramesses III: “The foreign countries made a conspiracy in their islands, All at once the lands were removed and scattered in the fray. No land could stand before their arms: from HattiQodeCarchemishArzawa and Alashiya on, being cut off [i.e. destroyed] at one time. A camp was set up in Amurru. They desolated its people, and its land was like that which has never come into being. They were coming forward toward Egypt, while the flame was prepared before them. Their confederation was the PelesetTjeker, Shekelesh, Denyen and Weshesh, lands united. They laid their hands upon the land as far as the circuit of the earth, their hearts confident and trusting: ‘Our plans will succeed!‘”[83

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[2] Rome’s collapse, as a Republic, started around 150 BCE, and was complete by Theodosius I’s murderous religious edicts of 381 CE. Thus it took more than 5 centuries. The military collapse, though occured swiftly between 394 CE (annihilation of the Occidental Roman army by Theodosius !), and then 395 CE (invasion of Italy) and 406 CE (crossing of the frozen Rhine by German nations piercing the Frankish limes) or 410 CE (capture of Rome by the Goth Alaric, ally of Theodosius I). So we see that the deliquescence of the Republic by corruption took 50 times longer than its direct consequence, defeat by military invasion. We also see that just one bad leader, Theodosius, was mostly at fault… Just as one bad leader, Gamelin, caused the Fall of France in May-June 1940… Both Theodosius and Gamelin were not just stupid, but full of ressentiment (Theodosius against non-Catholic, perhaps because of his father’s execution) and Gamelin against the French Popular front of PM Blum (perhaps because Blum was a Jew, so Hitler was viewed as a lesser danger, as Gamelin himself wrote in his memoirs…)

To Avert Nuclear War, Convene A Conference To Outlaw Military Use Of Civilian Nuclear Power

August 8, 2022

OUTLAWING ATTACKS ON NUCLEAR WILL MAKE NUCLEAR ATTACKS LESS LIKELY… From A Mass Psychology Effect…

Nuclear power is crucial as base power for a carbon free future. I explained that keeping fossil fuels as base energy is a trick to keep fossil fuels at 84% of total energy.

Nuclearizing electric power production would have required having four thousand (4,000) nuclear reactors, worldwide… instead of 400. 

Disappointingly, the percentage of electricity that comes from low-carbon sources today is almost unchanged from the mid-1980s. Throughout the early-2000s this low carbon share actually regressed, greatly because of the shutdown of nuclear reactors.. 

Yes, electric consumption is only 20% of total energy consumption… So going nuclear on electric would not have solved all. (We need more such as hydrogen for transportation!)

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Nuclear can be made very safe, and non-polluting. The only deadly civil nuclear power accident was in Ukraine at Chernobyl, a type of reactor (graphite-gas), power (way too much) and construction without containment, which are all de facto illegal in the West. Yes, Chernobyl should never have been built. (Ukraine has the world’s highest production of electricity from nuclear reactors, a distant second behind France.) 

By comparison, fossil fuels kill around ten million people a year, and probably much more.

The Orcs of Putin have attacked nuclear installations in Ukraine, and transformed them into battlefield. That should be unlawful. It is also a way to inure us to Putin’s military use of nuclear energy… Something he already did by threatening to destroy humanity with nukes if we don’t let him destroy Ukraine.

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Dams were attacked in World War Two, causing great damage and loss of life. Now a worldwide convention outlaws attacks on dams, and it has been, so far, respected in Ukraine, which has several giant dams. Mr. Putin has not suggested that he would destroy dams to get his way.

Trying to outlaw attacks on nuclear installations right away would indirectly heighten a worldwide healthy alarm against Mr. Putin’s nuclear ways. Mr. Putin has weaponized the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, by stationing heavy weapons there. Mr. Putin also implicitly threatened to use nuclear weapons to make his invasion of Ukraine work.

Thus calling for a worldwide conference to outlaw attacks on nuclear installations would make it less likely, from general indignation, and the possible loss of allies that it would entail, that Mr. Putin would dare to use nuclear weapons (as using nukes is generally worse than attacking nuclear installations).

Hence there is an excellent reason to rush an outlawing of nuclear attacks, as Mr. Putin’s effective defeat in Ukraine makes it ever more likely that he will use nukes on the battlefield.

Whereas the three nuclear armed democracies (US, UK, France) have refused to declare they would never ever use nuclear weapons first, they would certainly agree to not attack nuclear installations directly, so they would support such an approach. Nuclear power is an important way to mitigate the CO2 crisis…

Under Putin, the Russian military decided to adopt a doctrine of “escalate to de-escalate”, which includes using battlefield nuclear weapons… First usage of nuclear weapons, or attacks against nuclear installations is not explicitly unlawful. However attacks against dams are. 

The Russian military may detonate a few nukes against concentrations of Ukrainian troops (a good reason to avoid those)… Hoping that the democracies, terrified by nuclear war, would then just submit. Thus NATO should create an appropriate answer, not just hope that Putin will not go crazy (as it is clear Putin is not analyzing the situation clearly, this hope is inappropriate).

Patrice Ayme

Russian Tank camouflaged in front of Zapo nuclear reactors 1, 2, 3 and 4… August 4, 2022. Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), which Russian invaders are now threatening to blow up, contains 1,200 tonnes of nuclear fuel. If Russia decides to commit a terrorist attack, the nuclear disaster will affect the territories of both Russia and Ukraine.
…Says Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration Head Oleksandr Staruk…

Ukraine Genocide As Official Kremlin Policy

July 9, 2022

It’s Putin’s full intent to turn his annihilation of Ukraine into an indefinite insurance for his dictatorship by fostering a terrible war which in turn justifies his tyranny. The intent is genocidal:”Fight to the last Ukrainian!” the Kremlin tyrant declared in July 2022… Yesterday. So the continuation of the war enables Putin to commit a genocide, Putin himself said, turning genocide into policy!

Putin warned 7/7/2022 that his invasion of Ukraine could continue until the “last Ukrainian is left standing,Reuters reported. During a speech to parliamentary leaders, Putin claimed Russia was just getting started with the war in Ukraine, more than four months after he invaded his neighbor.

Today we hear that they want to defeat us on the battlefield. Well, what can I say? Let them try,”

In a sense this is a situation which was never encountered before: genocide is officially part of the calculation, and the rescuers of the assaulted country are accused of it, by Putin! Putin’s argument is that the 50 allies of Ukraine are committing a genocide by extending the war.  

OK, on second thought, the Mongols had such a policy: they would show up at a city, order surrender, and declared that resistance will cause annihilation. This is what they did to Kyiv, the capital of Rus, then, massacring everybody after a short siege, except for the leading defender himself. Kyiv, then one of Europe’s largest cities, was annihilated… Muscovite Rus would rise by doing the exact opposite: allying itself as executioner and taxman for the Mongols, led in this by the famous Alexander Nevski (and this is why the statues of the later are being removed in Ukraine…) and then his grandson Ivan I Money Bag… 

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The way Putin looks at it, this strategy of genocide ensures victory. And, actually, Putin is winning, in the sense that the territory that he controls is a large part of the wealthiest Ukraine. As a bonus, he is destroying plenty of Ukrainian wealth and lives….

The West can’t stay in the war if the West does not militarize its economy… Russia did this a few days ago, by passing the appropriate laws… From now on, industry, private or public can’t refuse military orders, whatever they are, such as working 24/7. This is a world war, and it’s time for democracies to act as if it were… Not doing so will only make the situation worse…. All the way to “escalate to de-escalate”, that is the Putin doctrine of using nuclear weapons.

As long as the West does not fight this world war with complete determination, Putin feels that he is likely to win it, and thus keeps on going waging war, causing irreversible damage, including psychological damage. When, after many months of this Putin will realize that he is not yet winning, as he should in his opinion, he will naturally feel that this delayed victory is the result of his own insufficient exhibition of determination… So he will use nukes at that point to make sure the West feel in its bones that it will never match Putin’s determination. MAAD: Madly Atomically Assumed Determination.

This is no small war, it’s the war of the Russian autocratic tradition, of the “empire which never ends” (quoting Putin again, in a statement he made in 2016…)… a traditonal Kremlin expansion war, in its nuclear version, as Putin’s computation, from the start, was to use nuclear weapons one way or another! That sets his place in history, next to Alexander Nevski, who subdiued the independent republic of Novogorod, in the name of his Mongol overlord… And yes, Alexander Nevski is a saint of the Russian Orthodox church…. And Putin, starting in the 1990s, rebuild the Kremlin military in the spirit of a crusade, with the full help of patriach Kyrill… The one with watches so expensive (several dozens of thousands of dollars), that they had to be erased from official pictures… By the Kremlin…

Patrice Ayme

A Putin explosion in Ukraine… In 2017…. Some of these explosions are nuclear weapon strength…

P/S: The essence of the essay above was sent as a comment to the New York Times for

Ukraine and the Contest of Global Stamina
The conflict’s long-run trajectory seems increasingly likely to be shaped by whether the United States and its allies can maintain their military, political and financial commitments to holding off Russia.

… My comment was censored… Banned, rejected, condemned, ostracized, vilified and excommunicated… Mind control as the NYT is exquisite… Probably where Putin learned it…

Just War: Mobilize “Democratic” Military-Industrial Complexes. 

July 3, 2022

“Just wars” occur when submission strategies, such as appeasement, peace at all cost, nihilism, are less optimal for the many, or even worse, for the species’ survival. Some will sneer: they have a higher calling, they prefer to be eaten by wolves. Yet should other people’s children be eaten too? Others will point out that democracy is relative… Yet so is tyranny. Grotesque threats of nuclear war, and, or, destroying everybody, by Putin’s government officials are the ultimate terrorism, and, per se, constitute a crime against peace.

The invasion of Ukraine, an attack of a nuclear weapons brandishing tyrant on a democracy is a world war, with 50 democracies already allied with Ukraine. (By contrast in 1939, only a few dependencies of France and Britain joined Poland in fighting Hitler; the USA applied sanctions against France and Britain for having declared war to Hitler.) 

That world war, long prepared by Putin, has to be won by democracies… otherwise “the borders of Russia never end”… as Putin himself said in 2016. If we don’t invest enough now, in winning this war, that we are presently losing, the price will be much higher, maybe nuclear, later. Putin’s win would ensure world tyrannies as the new governance, with the result of lowering civilizational intelligence below survivability.

Thus, democracies, and their industrial-military complexes should get on a war footing. Putin’s forces have been destroying a lot of Ukrainian artillery, including recently arrived 155mm US howitzers. Artillery is what the Ukrainians need, preferably of the highly mobile variety, as the French CAESAR truck mounted gun… France sent 18 of these guns to Ukraine, and the French army has only 80 left. Although France has more standard howitzers, Russia has approximately 1,100 of them, more than a thousand.

The US, after a few weeks of comabt, had sent to Ukraine 7,000 Javellin anti-tank rockets, one third of its total inventory. As it is, the US makes only 2,100 Jevellins a year. 

This is the situation all over the West, NATO has an insufficient number of (quality) weapons. Ukraine also needs field communications. Putin’s forces successfully jam a lot of them, including the latest encrypted US gear (but not the SpaceX internet satellite).

Ukrainian volunteer soldiers, insufficiently trained and equipped suffer pain, and death. To help them, they need training and equipment. We have to assume, and prepare for, the worst in the evolution of this world war. So doing, and only so doing, this world war will be mitigated… Proper war management here means more effort, and it is not just an economic, but also a moral challenge. There is something such as just war. This is it. Sometimes, those terrible times come back, when making war, not love, is the higher moral calling.

Sad but true.

Patrice Ayme

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The French Caesar gun is very precise, its shells carry more explosives and it goes 50% further than its Russian equivalent. Ukraine was able to hit Snake island with it, forcing the evacuation of its Russian occupiers. These guns have been used in combat in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Mali… It can drive somewhere, stop, fire more than a dozen precise 40 kilometers shots, and then scoot away, all in less than 4 minutes, escaping counter-battery fire. The US HIMARS (HIgh Mobility Artillery Rocket System), now in Ukraine, does even better with great GPS precision. The version given to Ukraine goes only 50 miles, but the original US product could hit Moscow… from Ukraine… (Ukraine to Moscow is only 450 kilometers)

Ivan I “Moneybag”: How Kremlin’s Reich Grew So Big

May 6, 2022

Tyranny is the chronic problem which has affected civilization. Civilization was created to leverage power, and that leverage can be used by oligarchs to confiscate power.

Such a confiscation is traditional in the Kremlin since Ivan I “kalita” (moneybag). Ivan got the monopoly of taxation from the Mongolian Golden Horde, confiscating as much power as he could. Ultimately he and his successors beat the Mongols at their own game. Ever since, when the tyranny in the Kremlin runs into problems, it engages in a foreign war, enabling it to increase the tyranny at home, by calling all opponents traitors to the fatherland. This has ultimately made the Kremlin led empire into, by far, the world’s largest.

The South of Ukraine Putin is trying to conquer was named the “New Russia” in a preceding conquest, under Czarina Catherine II. Unfortunately for the Kremlin, the “New Russians” who were imported got the westernizing democratic bug…

After the confiscation of power, minds have to be confiscated too, because they tend to rebel. So oligarchies tend to produce populations which are not creative. But the problems always accumulate. Ultimately a supine yet bellicose populace is produced, and one war too many is engaged, and the dictatorship gets destroyed in an invasion, often to be replaced by another tyranny.

However now democratization of the entire planet is a must, because WMDs are so powerful, one tyrant could destroy the planet. And global destruction is tyrants’ personal life insurance. Thus world annihilation will be brandished, again and again, as the life insurance for minds so deranged they can’t tell what reality is. 

It cannot end well, except if democracy ends tyranny, once and for all. Not to be fanatical about it: small tyranny, if democratizing at maximum effort, yes (like Deng Hsiao Ping’s China, or maybe MBS’s Saudi Arabia). But large military dangerous countries which are getting more tyrannical, like Russia or China: no… and the case of China shows a relapse is possible.

Thus weakening tyrannies to the point they cannot attack the world anymore is a must.

Russian civilization was born out of adversity and has quite a few things to teach that way, and reached heights in arts and science which contributed immensely to world’s civilization. But the road of war, and the trick of expending the empire ever more to reinforce fascism, ends here.

Patrice Ayme

 

In 2022 St. Basil’s Cathedral (on the right) celebrates its 461th birthday. It’s 65 meters tall. And totally unique. Some Kremlin’s towers on the left. The Kremlin has many churches inside.
This unique architectural and artistic treasure was built by order of Ivan IV the Terrible to honor his military victory in the Russian-Kazan war. Its full name is the Cathedral of the Intercession of the Most Holy Mother of God on the Moat — celebrating the capture of Kazan with 150,000 troops, plus the help of some West European engineers and military… Most of the population got massacred, the old fashion way, the area got “russified” and Kazan never rose again…

Was Putin Tricked Into Attacking Ukraine?

April 30, 2022

[The title above was “restricted for diffusion” or “shadow banned” on the Internet; a more accurate title should have been: Was Putin Deliberately Misled By His Own Intelligence Services Into Attacking Ukraine? Shadow banning is ultra modern censorship: learn everything about some brainless celebrities, famous for being famous, who are “trending”, and learn not to care about anything else]

Putin arrested several of his top intelligence officers, for misleading him about the situation in Ukraine. Putin and his top people had been told it would take five days at most to defeat Ukraine. One may wonder if those officers were genuinely in error, or told Putin stories which he did not just want to hear, but also would bring him to launch a war so big that he could not win it. Because that was the only path to regime change, the way those intelligence officers looked at it.

Putin is most vile, but the tyrant is too well defended for a direct coup or assasination: his close guard of millionaires and billionaires are personally tied to him, and some were his accomplices not just from the KGB, but all the way in Saint Petersburg since before Putin became a lawyer! So how to bring him down? By enticing the tyrant to make a terrible mistake by making him believe he was advancing his dream of Russian hyper power while engaging in a war crime he could not fail to profit from

 

Real Russian patriots will resist the Putin tyranny by sabotaging it. Sabotaging a tyranny is what real patriots do, it happened in Nazi Germany extensively and in various ways. Sabotage in its simplest form is lack of zeal… which can show up as “low morale” of troops engaged in combat. 

The most elite, thus fanatical troops engaged by Putin suffered heavy losses during their assault on Kyiv. The same phenomenon happened with Nazi Germany: 50,000 of the most dedicated Nazis died during the battle of France of May-June 1940, followed by another victory less than a year later in Crete, where most Nazi paratroopers died while winning. At Stalingrad, the elite Nazi Sixth Army was annihilated. Too many dead elite Nazis weakened considerably the might of Hitler’s forces, and it was even worse with pilots (who couldn’t train from lack of fuel after declaring war to their ally the USSR).

 

In the grand scheme of things, the nuclear armed tyrannies are an unsustainable danger for democracy. When France and Britain declared war to Hitler in 1939, the latter was not ready. Nor was Putin.

 

So one may wonder about the possibility of the ultimate sabotage: what if elements opposed to Putin within Russia had deliberately misrepresented the situation to Putin so that the tyrant would engage in a war too ambitious for him to win? Indeed, if Putin had concentrated all his elite forces on the Donbas from the start, he could have won. But now most of these forces are severely degraded. Are only nukes left to exhibit some Kremlin tyrannical superiority?

 

Oooppsss… Russian T 72 tank experiencing “tandem” anti-tank warheads. Putin came to believe Ukraine was full of Nazis… thus stupid brutish orcs… it turns out the orcs were his own troops. In the city of Bucha alone, ten Russian soldiers were already thoroughly identified as war criminals. One used to be a firefighter in Siberia…

This is what Deep Machiavellian really means. Now were some US Deep State actors involved into this? Something like that happened in 1914 (Colonel House; maybe president Wilson himself), and in the ramp up to World War Two (FDR, who wanted to own the French empire replaced his anti-Nazi ambassadors by pro-Nazi ambassador to the Reich and UK… He also sent his right hand man… a four star admiral to Vichy). Could it be that Biden was encouraged to show weakness in Afghanistan?… to encourage Putin into believing the US, thus NATO, was scared, weak and senile? Time may tell…

Patrice Ayme

Merkel A Double Agent And Other Stories:

April 15, 2022

Putin should have become known as a  genocidal tyrant after he killed one Chechen out of six. However, Germany made itself fully dependent upon the genocidal tyrant, years after the genocide. Now Germany and other European genocidal collaborators are sending more than a billion dollars a day to feed the genocidal tyrant’s war crime factory.

In light of this, and her personal, murky history, one may wonder whether Angela Merkel was not a double agent (truly working for Putin’s KGB). She declared that, when the KGB approached her, she brushed them off by telling them that “she talked too much”. This sounds like disinformation to me: Merkel knew that the fact that the KGB tried to recruit her would come up, so she planted plausible denial. She made do with junior dictatorial positions and becoming spokesperson for the Stalinian East German state.

Putin calls Ukrainian nationalists, “Nazis. The pseudo-left in the US or Europe smear its nationalist opponents by calling them tribal (“ethnonationalists”). This flies in the face of common sense: “Ethnonationalism” is hard to come by in very multi-ethnic societies such as the US, UK, or France; ethnonationalists just can’t get elected. Another trick of the pseudo-left is to demonize its “populist” opposition by calling it “terrifying” (a label the NYT smears Le Pen with).

The French political system is similar to the US one: it’s Congress which passes laws. One could imagine (it won’t happen because Macron will be re-elected) a situation where Le Pen is president and her PM is Macron, and he does what he wants (this happened before: Mitterand-Balladur). Le Pen was a European MP for 13 years, she will not dismantle Europe (I will probably vote Macron; but calling her “terrifying” makes me feel like voting for her…). 

All of French politics, including its most extreme right, is on the left of Sanders and AOC. That may be terrifying to Americans, indeed.

One has to make a distinction between “oligarchy” (rule of the few) and “plutocracy” (evil-power). A junta is oligarchic, but not necessarily evil. Lenin, Stalin, Hitler and those who financed them (many of them from the US) were plutocrats. Autocracy is the power of one, it necessarily entails plutocracy, as the innate sense of justice of the species makes such a rule unbearable, so it can only be maintained by force. Autocracy was enshrined by Nicholas I in the Russian constitution, and followed by Lenin, Trotsky, Stalin, and now Putin.

[A shorter version of this teaching comment was published by NYT after 20 hours delay.]

Patrice Ayme

P/S: Here is the context of the preceding. NYT and its Nobel Krugman find French presidential candidate Le Pen “terrifying”. I think what is terrifying is that the truth of Merkel and other collaborators of Putin (Schröder; ecologists, other politicians), cannot be looked in the face. Krugman wrote:

Now, it’s important to understand the context. France provides social benefits on a scale beyond the wildest dreams of U.S. progressives: universal health care, huge family benefits and more. Macron isn’t challenging the fundamentals of that system. He is, however, trying to trim some benefits… Le Pen, by contrast, actually wants to reduce the retirement age for some workers.

If she wins, the consequences for France, Europe and the world will be terrifying. But there is some genuine populism — advocacy of policies that might actually help workers — in her platform.”

Krugman does not describe why Le Pen is “terrifying“. Not even one element of “Le Pen terror” is rolled out. Actually he does not even bother with one element of disagreement he may have with Le Pen. The 53 year French blonde lawyer turned European and French elected representative, just “terrifies” the world, while Krugman and the New York Times still sing the praises of Obama, who “reset with Russia“, after Putin invaded Georgia, to empower Putin for eight years, inviting him in Syria and Ukraine, while Obama himself was killing thousand of civilians in emerging countries… Krugman insinuated that Le Pen was an “ethnonationalist“, a tribal nationalist:

Ron DeSantis would be Florida’s Orban if he could, state governors don’t have as much repressive power as rulers of sovereign nations.

Still, the comparison of European and U.S. ethnonationalists raises some interesting questions. In particular, as the G.O.P. has become a full-on antidemocratic party, why has it also remained the party of plutocrats and the enemy of any policy that might help its many working-class supporters?

To understand the puzzle, consider the policy positions of Marine Le Pen, who has a serious chance of becoming France’s next president. Her party, National Rally — previously called the National Front — is often described as right-wing. And on social issues it is; in particular, the party is largely defined by its hostility to immigrants and the alleged threat they pose to France’s national identity. On economic policy, however, Le Pen is if anything to the left of President Emmanuel Macron.

Orban, elected four times Hungarian Prime Minister, is the bête noire of the US pseudo-left, which is heavily financed by the plutocrat Soros, one of the world’s wealthiest person, a currency manipulator and frontrunner, with philosophical pretense, of Jewish and Hungarian origin (I own books of Soros murky Popper pseudo-philosophy, his fig leaf). Anybody from the US pseudo-left is supposed to hate Orban… So Krugman hates Orban, and Fox News’ Tucker Carlson loves Orban (I am more nuanced than either, but hate Orban’s Putinophilia). DeSantis is of Italian descent on both sides. Does that make him an “ethnoitalian”? The terror of eating pasta?

So I sent the comment, in a simpler version, and, naturally, it was delayed 20 hours. (My lawyer told me that my assertion about Merkel was legally problematic!) In the end, it was published,

Some Answers To Putin Collaborators

March 30, 2022

Putin parrots go around the Internet, repeating Putin’s mass murdering lies. Let’s dispell a few…

Who gave “assurances” for NATO not expanding eastward, to a state which stopped existing more than 30 years ago? NATO is a treaty among participating democracies, not a person giving “assurances”. Democracies are dynamic: they change opinons. NATO is not a fascist organization, with one chief at the top and robots executing below. Just the opposite. For several decades, France a  founding member of NATO slammed the door of the common military command… Until France went back to NATO, and cajoled it into joining France to intervene against the Serbian war crime, Muslim hating dictatorship.

NATO, a treaty among 30 democracies, a billion people, works by consensus: one country can block everything. As far as getting in wars, France, which often blocked NATO, for example about the Ukraine membership, has led (into war) much more than the USA (generally after getting OK from the UN).

***

That NATO gave “assurances” is a piece of criminal Putin propaganda, deforming completely a casual conversation about NATO and East Germany (DDR)… By claiming NATO lied, Putin tried to justify his “special military operation” (in truth a major crime against humanity). Finland and Sweden are preparing to join NATO, a defensive alliance… of democracies. Just for a an educated hint: “special” in SS, that is ZZ, linguo meant extermination… Now, outright Putin claims inside Russia that Ukraine was preparing to bomb Russia, so he had to act first. 

Here is an extract of an interview with the mother of a Russian soldier who died in Ukraine in Kyiv’s suburbs, given to Deutsche Welle. DW said they left it as is, because DW wanted to show the extent of Putin propaganda:

“Despite losing her son Yevgeny, Natalya (not her actual name) argues the invasion of Ukraine is justified. Yet she thinks Russia’s campaign amounts to a full-fledged war, rather than a “special operation.”

The mother of the 26 year old dead soldier says:

[Her son] Yevgeny was in Hostomel on February 24. He did not die on February 27, as his death certificate says. He was killed much earlier, probably on the night between February 24 and 25.

DW: What makes you think so?

I read online that our soldiers conquered Hostomel on February 24. All our boys were then sent there. But then they came under fire from Kyiv. Our boys were encircled and nobody came to their aid. They were shot at and bombed for a full day. Think about it, the airport is basically an open field.

 
On February 25, our soldiers regained control of Hostomel. On February 26, they found Yevgeny. But I was only informed on March 8. His unit called me around 1:30 p.m. and told me my son had died in a battle near Rostov [Rostov-on-Don, a city in southern Russia, some 60 kilometers from the Ukrainian border]. I almost lost my mind.

DW: Why did they say he died near Rostov-on-Don?

I do not know why they reported that. Maybe because his body was sent to a morgue in Rostov, and they had no verified information about his death.

DW: Did you ever discuss Ukraine with your son in the past?

To be honest, no. 

DW: Do you understand why this war was begun?

I think if we had not started bombing them, the Ukrainians would have bombed us. We had no choice. But something went wrong, nobody saw it coming. Now that so many soldiers have died, we cannot stop. We need to press on until we achieve victory.

DW: Do you understand why Russia is fighting in Ukraine? What was Yevgeny fighting for?

My son fought for us, for Russia and the Russians. So that we can keep using our phones, eat and drink like before. He did not die in vain, he died for us, so that we can lead long, happy lives, so that we don’t have to live through war and that bombs fall on us.

DW: In Russia, it is illegal to call this conflict a war. Do you regard this as a war or a “special operation”?

I do not see this as a “special operation.” This is a proper war. I am aware we are not supposed to call it that, but it is a war. It’s a bloodbath.”

Remarks: Putin wants Russian to believe Ukraine attacked Russia. This is why they claim they have soldiers dying in Rostoff, deep in Russia.

***

Evoking game theory for depicting Putin is too weak: Putin is way smarter than Game Theory specialists. Does Game Theory have people bombing giant building blocks to get elected? Does Game Theory flattens Grozny as a possibility? Use chemical weapons? Does game theory annex part of Georgia? (That’s the latest March 30, 2022) Does Game Theory include Horror Theory?  

Have you read the very detailed theory of nuclear escalation of the Russian army? I have. It’s not as simple as a massive nuclear exchange. It includes “escalate to deescalate“, a weird frown-down theory I use with wild, gullible predators… but I doubt it will work with NATO… which includes clever apes.

Do you know about the nuclear tipped hypersonic missiles in Kaliningrad? They have deployed by Putin, in complete violation of treaties on medium range ballistics for more than a decade. They reduce warning times over several European capitals to a few seconds. They are nearly impossible to intercept. They are why the US dropped the medium range ballistic treaty.

World War III already started: 141 countries, including ALL democracies agree Putin is a war criminal. 

On top of that, Putin, plutocrat in chief, loves to pose as the sword of justice, but Putin was empowered by WEF/Davos…   

This is exactly why so many of the NATO powers do not want Putin to lose: he is their man. Merkel made Europe dependent on Putin, because she obviously was a double agent (she slily said the KGB tried to recruit her, but she brushed them off by telling them she “couldn’t keep a secret”. Merkel, very officially, was employed by the same people Putin worked for. The Merkel betrayal extended to all of Europe, because the World Economic Forum pushed Putin as the provider of Europe’s energy… while knowing perfectly well he was a mafia and KGB thug. 

What is worse than a scum who threatened to annihilate all of humanity if we don’t do as he said? Are there excuses for the worst?

People justifying Stalin, Hitler, Mussolini or Pol Pot were once in the millions, including hundreds of thousands of intellectuals. This is now forgotten. 

Infamy tends to be forgotten… Perhaps, because, as Voltaire said, one must crush infamy. What has been crushed long ago is slimy, rotten and poisonous: history prefers to forget it.

https://patriceayme.wordpress.com/2022/03/01/why-putin-is-worse-than-hitler/. 

 

The Russian army justified its strike of this maternity in Mariupol, by claiming that it was full of “SS”. It was a full lie. There were, by coincidence, AP journalist team inside at the time… Of course SS looks like ZZ rotated, an inside joke…

Why Putin Will Use Weapons Of Mass Destruction

March 25, 2022

Putin Does As Evil Wants

War writes history. Always had, always will. The war in Ukraine is the largest sort of war, a world war: 141 countries, and all democracies, voted against Russia accusing it of war of aggression, the fundamental crime against humanity ( a legal, philosophical, and UN conviction). The two largest wheat producers are at war, famine has a high probability to follow in many parts of the world, which eat mostly cereals, and produce none or too little [1].

The perpetrator, an oligarchy, is controlling the Kremlin by reinstalling the mentality of its mentor, Ivan The Terrible (no, I am not trying to be funny, Ivan IV is really the hero and role model of Putin’s more cerebral advisers)… This perpetrator has a powerful ally, Xi, the dictator of China. All other autocrats, worldwide are tempted to ally themselves with the Kremlin.

This is a war of democracy against fascism, similar to that of the Greek cities fighting the Persian empire, 25 centuries ago. The Achemenid Persians had established an immense empire, resting on fascism and local oligarchies, from Central Asia to Ethiopia, and the Mediterranean to India.  Greek cities were free and more intelligent: the Persians couldn’t stand their insolence… and the fact that the superiority of their innovations and ideas contradicted the Persian civilizational model. 

The Russian oligarchy has embraced a bellicose ethnic ideology to instigate wars and militarization to distract from its capture of the country, and justify the terror it exerts inside.

The alliance of all democracies is the most powerful, but fascism has nuclear weapons, plenty of them, and the advertised will to use them. Several US presidents ago, the Kremlin dictator developed nuclear armed hypersonic weapons, detectable only at the last moment, making intermediate ballistic missiles obsolete.

Worse: the war against Ukraine was engaged for ethnic reasons, the displayed conviction of a small oligarchy that another ethnicity, a democracy with its own language, does not have a right to exist, and thus should be under the control of said oligarchy. It is rare that the advertized goal of a war is the extermination of an ethnicity.

All Russians are supposed to approve the notion: otherwise they are “scums and traitors”, to be spit out like a gant which comes accidentally into one’s mouth” as Putin himself put it.

So, to justify its war, the oligarchy built an argument which is essentially racist: another ethnicity doesn’t deserve to exist. Whether that’s true or not is irrelevant to the main effect: it makes racism into a virtue, and impells everybody in Russia to partake into evil, thus an accomplice of the evil oligarchy, an evil-power, a plutocracy.

Of course, the plutocracy is in it to gorge itself on riches and power, it’s evil, and thus to become part of the landscape, needs the entire landscape to be evil too.

These sorts of situations have happened before: history is full of hundreds of plutocracies, from all continents and islands. Still now is different, because of the powers vested into just one man. The greatest emperors had armies, bodyguards, secret services… But a modern emperor such as Putin has powers no emperor had before. Some of these powers are cognitive powers. Putin persuaded most of the Russian population, and much of the world, that he was fighting Nazis in Ukraine.

The situation is also without precedent: the Russian government has expressed the opinion that, should it lose a war, it would reduce the rest of the world to “radioactive ashes“. Putin threatened those who interfere with his war of aggression on tribal “with seen never seen in history“.

This astoundingly evil attitude, never seen before in history, indeed, with such a level of demonicity, has predictive value: it makes it likely that weapons of mass destruction will be used.

Putin’s entire vision of civilization, something embodied by the KGB, a direct descendant of Ivan The Terrible’s secret police, is unraveling in Ukraine… Lest, by sheer will, he can call the greatest evil, “never seen before in history”, to the rescue.

Our best hope is a coup in Moscow, and soon. Let’s hope many Russian generals are thinking the same.

If that does not work, and in the meantime, democracies have to stand so firm, resolute and unafraid, that they will leave no hope that the “escalate to des-escalate” doctrine of the Russian military relative to WMDs could work.

Patrice Ayme

One Russian “Large Landing Ship”, Saratov on fire after March 2022 attack, with Ropucha-class Caesar Kunikov and Novocherkassk (built in Poland) steaming out of port of Berdyansk, sea of Azov, after the attack by the Ukrainian army. They were unloading armored vehicles… Another ship seems to have been damaged too. How the Ukrainians did it is not clear…

[1] MENA, Middle East North Africa eats mostly cereals, half of them coming from Ukraine-Russia…

Not Sending Planes To Ukraine = Escalation By Promotion Of Nuclear Blackmail

March 23, 2022

Once the defenseless capital city of Bosnia, Sarajevo, was submitted to relentless bombing of its civilian population. French army peacekeepers finally got authorized to use counterbattery fire (tracking shells on the radar, and immediately firing at the point where they came from, before the guns could move significantly, thus destroying the aggressor). This is how the war against the war criminals and criminals against humanity in the ex-Yugoslavia started. That was the right thing to do. Now their three top war criminals from the ex-Yugoslavia  have been condemned to life in prison (and the dictator Milosevic died there).

Guess what? None of the Western allies of Ukraine had the cojones yet to equip, or a fortiori operate, counterbatteries in Ukraine, although civilian populations are massacred in war crimes, and although we now have radio messages and videos showing the preparation and execution of war crimes using Russian artillery and planes

The excuse for this ineptitude and cowardice is always the same: the wise and prudent would not want to upset Vlad the Mad, he may destroy the world, he already said he would. Ukraine has its own counterbattery equipment, but the western one is superior, for example the CAESAR French guns which are truck mounted. They and the M982 Excalibur from the US have a circular error probable (CEP) of 4 m. The shells can go more than 30 miles (50 kms).

Yet, everybody should upset Vlad the Mad, starting with Russian general officers… Or do we want to believe Vlad the Mad and decide that we are Nazis? The best solution to the present situation is a military coup against the Putin kleptocratic regime. But how can we ask Russian officers to rebel when we cannot even dare to act, lest it could possibly upset the madman?

In Korea or Vietnam Russian pilots fought US pilots. After World War II, there were many instances of air-to-air combat between the Soviet Union and the United States. In the Korean War, the Soviets claimed to have shot down more than 1,100 US planes (US recognizes only 146…) In Vietnam, Soviet instruct pilots were credied with shooting down 48 US planes. Ace pilot from the USSR, Col. Vadim Shcherbakov was credited with 6 air-to-air kills of US planes.

Ukraine needs more fighter planes. Democracy needs Ukraine to have more planes. Influential leaders pontificate instead that we cannot do that because we do not want to aggravate the aggressor, who is bad, very very bad, even radioactive, and thus should be kept in reasonable agreement… An attitude so despicable, and idiotic, that one should guess that’s it’s not the real reason.

We have seen that movie before, of not helping enough democracies attacked by invading fascists. The basic actors were the same: western plutocrats empowered dictators who then bit the hands who fed them.

Democracies did not help two democracies in a timely manner, Spain and Czechoslovakia, in 1936 and 1938. Instead, democracies let Spain and Czechoslovakia, fighting alone for their lives, confronted to a coalition of fascist countries.  

In Munich, in 1938, the democracies, France and Britain, let Hitler seize a piece of a democracy, Czechoslovakia. The equivalent happened in 2014, when Obama and Biden let Russia seize 7% of Ukraine, without fighting back.

The problem with Munich was not that some appeasement was found with Hitler. The problem with Munich 1938 is that the democracy, Czechoslovakia was left alone to struggle diplomatically with Hitler, enabling the latter to seize the entire country in 1939. That invasion made Hitler much stronger militarily and diplomatically. It also impressed the USSR and contributed to making its alliance with Hitler official and very efficient: Hitler invaded Western Europe, including France, the Netherlands and Norway,  on Soviet oil.

If Putin wins in Ukraine, Xi will be even more in love with Putin and his ways than he is already. Conversely, if Putin is decisively thrown out of Ukraine, Xi, who is compromise with Putin, may well not be re-elected by his colleagues, and China may become much more prudent diplomatically for a very long time to come… 

By not helping a democracy which fights for its survival, just because a tyranny makes a nuclear blackmail, we invite disaster, because we show that nuclear blackmail works, and we lose an ally, making the blackmailer stronger.

If only democracies had fought Hitler early! 

The more we delay confronting Putin, the nuclear blackmailer, the more he will find allies, as Hitler did… Putin will then ally himself to China. The worse the world war will get.  Indeed, the more Putin pursues his war criminality, the more individuals and countries will join him in criminality… as happened with Nazism. 

Russian criminal plane shot down over Kyiv by Ukrainian pilot, February 2022.

As Madeleine Albright, dead today of cancer at 84, said to the chief of the US army, Colin Powell: “What is the use of this great army if we can’t use it?

Ah, yes, scared rabbits can’t lead.

Come on, Man, Man up, Man!“…as Biden should say…

Patrice Ayme


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Rise, Republic, Plutocracy, Degeneracy, Fall And Transmutation Of Rome

Power Exponentiation By A Few Destroyed Greco-Roman Civilization. Are We Next?

SoundEagle 🦅ೋღஜஇ

Where The Eagles Fly . . . . Art Science Poetry Music & Ideas

Artificial Turf At French Bilingual School Berkeley

Artificial Turf At French Bilingual School Berkeley

Patterns of Meaning

Exploring the patterns of meaning that shape our world

Sean Carroll

in truth, only atoms and the void

West Hunter

Omnes vulnerant, ultima necat

GrrrGraphics on WordPress

www.grrrgraphics.com

Skulls in the Stars

The intersection of physics, optics, history and pulp fiction

Footnotes to Plato

because all (Western) philosophy consists of a series of footnotes to Plato

Patrice Ayme's Thoughts

Striving For Ever Better Thinking. Humanism Is Intelligence Unleashed. From Intelligence All Ways, Instincts & Values Flow, Even Happiness. History and Science Teach Us Not Just Humility, But Power, Smarts, And The Ways We Should Embrace. Naturam Primum Cognoscere Rerum

Learning from Dogs

Dogs are animals of integrity. We have much to learn from them.

ianmillerblog

Smile! You’re at the best WordPress.com site ever

Defense Issues

Military and general security

RobertLovesPi.net

Polyhedra, tessellations, and more.

How to Be a Stoic

an evolving guide to practical Stoicism for the 21st century

Rise, Republic, Plutocracy, Degeneracy, Fall And Transmutation Of Rome

Power Exponentiation By A Few Destroyed Greco-Roman Civilization. Are We Next?

SoundEagle 🦅ೋღஜஇ

Where The Eagles Fly . . . . Art Science Poetry Music & Ideas

Artificial Turf At French Bilingual School Berkeley

Artificial Turf At French Bilingual School Berkeley

Patterns of Meaning

Exploring the patterns of meaning that shape our world

Sean Carroll

in truth, only atoms and the void

West Hunter

Omnes vulnerant, ultima necat

GrrrGraphics on WordPress

www.grrrgraphics.com

Skulls in the Stars

The intersection of physics, optics, history and pulp fiction

Footnotes to Plato

because all (Western) philosophy consists of a series of footnotes to Plato

Patrice Ayme's Thoughts

Striving For Ever Better Thinking. Humanism Is Intelligence Unleashed. From Intelligence All Ways, Instincts & Values Flow, Even Happiness. History and Science Teach Us Not Just Humility, But Power, Smarts, And The Ways We Should Embrace. Naturam Primum Cognoscere Rerum

Learning from Dogs

Dogs are animals of integrity. We have much to learn from them.

ianmillerblog

Smile! You’re at the best WordPress.com site ever

Defense Issues

Military and general security

RobertLovesPi.net

Polyhedra, tessellations, and more.

How to Be a Stoic

an evolving guide to practical Stoicism for the 21st century