Archive for the ‘War And Civilization’ Category

France Wakes Up In Ukraine Bringing Fatally Comical Kremlin’s Antics

January 6, 2023

PUTIN, TERRORIZED BY FRENCH & US ADVANCED WEAPONS, CALLS FOR A CEASEFIRE!

Abstract: Victim of its own philosophy of  hedonism, laziness, entitlement, superficialism, wokism, Politically Correct thinking and judiciary, Europe disarmed to the point that most European weapon programs were experimental and demonstrative, rather than practical and capable of fighting a serious war. Meanwhile Europe encouraged the Kremlin to believe it could get away with being a force that mattered, and still mysteriously profited from the aura of decolonization from way back in the 1950s, when the tyrannical USSR and its gigantic empire was presented as good and liberating, and democratic Europe colonizing and oppressive..

When Putin invaded in a way that couldn’t be denied anymore, European countries found themselves defenseless. This greatly explained the apparent French and German reluctance to help Ukraine: they were not ready to fight Russia, from lack of armaments. This has not changed much: building weapons takes years. But the Russian military power has been considerably degraded.

French president Macron suddenly changed his ways, deciding to send to Ukraine the world’s most sophisticated anti-ballistic … And then… tanks!

Finally!

But there may be a method to the madness: European countries, NATO, were too weak militarily to counterattack boldly. Within a day, tyrant Putin proclaimed a unilateral ceasefire!

Just as in a comic book for little kids: the Putin chicken was not playing anymore!

***.  

So the ex head of Roscosmos, the Russian NASA is a fanatic of Putin and the Kremlin Above All spirit. So Dmitry Rogozin goes to Ukraine to fight.Next he and a vast throng of Kremlin grandees gather in a hotel to celebrate Rogozin’s 59th birthday. What do you think happens? Shells fired by Ukrainians explode, the head of Roscosmos is hit in the spine. He is evacuated, operated on. He is a man of the world, he has negotiated and collaborated with NASA, ESA, and the French CNES, among others. 

The surgeons extract shrapnel from the Roscosmos chief’s spine. The Kremlin grandees thought they were too far from the front to be shelled. But not far enough for GPS guided rocket assisted shells from a French Caesar gun. 

The French shell shrapnel is identified in that Roscosmos’ spine.

The head of Roscosmos thinks of himself as smart. So he sent the shrapnel to president Macron of France, the one who provided the Caesar guns. “Please pass on the fragment cut from my spine by surgeons to Emmanuel Macron,”

What does Macron do? Well, he reacts as he should have had, from the start. With a bit of delay, Macron has become smart too. Macron may have finally discovered that talking to Putin is like talking to Hitler: no point talking to hate personified, and self-delusion of such grandeur, one can remake history as it never was.

Or maybe Macron and France, just as Scholtz and Germany, confronted to the unthinkable, Hitler reincarnated, thermonuclear version, were trying to gain time. Eastern Europe gave lots of weapons to Ukraine, but often from old Soviet procurement.

You see, unbelievably, the leaders of the West didn’t see the obvious: in a mechanism very similar to what happened with Hitler, the leaders of the West and their think tanks, or more exactly their Western oligarchs, had decided that, because Putin, like Hitler, had been enabled by them, they owned him, just as in the 1930s their predecessors thought they owned Hitler, or Mussolini, or Hirohito, or Stalin… But all they were left with was Spain’s Franco.... 

Indeed, vainglorious vengeance minded idiots like Putin and Hitler resent being owned, and they are too stupid to know their masters

The end result is that the West, including to some extent the US, but particularly Western Europe, was not ready for war: they thought that, since they wanted peace, they should make war impossible, by being unable to conduct it. Putin only saw he could grab the cake, and nobody could stop him. The tyrant said so explicitly in 2014: “the problem Europe has is that I can be in Kyiv in two weeks“. To appease Putin, Obama sent MREs (Meals Ready to Eat to the Ukrainians). Later, Trump would send some anti tank weapons… But then, shortly after Biden’s election, the US Democratic Congress stopped the planned delivery of those weapons. Delivery was resumed six months later, in November 2021, but by then Putin had decided to attack (because he withheld gas delivery to Europe as soon as summer 2021)

Germany was, and is, incredibly weak, Britain had no army, as usual, and France was only strong in her aviation and nuclear forces. Western European weapons were better than the Russian ones (which used crucially Western electronics, or even French military equipment)… But there were all too very few. 

Thus France and Germany had little to provide, and budget constraints. Ukrainians, though, were told to pass direct contracts with the French and German military industrial complexes. Until recently, they didn’t (I don’t know why; maybe they have no  money; US weapons are free… They just buy good will…)

In any case, Macron gets Rogozin’s shrapnel… back to the sender!

What does he do? Macron suddenly sees at last that he is confronted to madmen who feel so entitled they take for granted that them getting hurt when they invade a democracy is… An outrage! In other words Putin and his entourage are maniacs beyond belief (Macron had already said this about Putin who, Macron said, was laughing when hearing about alleged atrocities of the Russians in Ukraine: those are actors, he told Macron… who added he really didn’t know what to say, in front of such a level of lunacy…

Once I knew a mad woman, and tried to help her. I even visited her in her psychiatric asylum (she apparently became psychotic from smoking pot, by the way…) I remember listening to her. She thought the CIA was after her… They were really coming, at the door… Listening to the entourage of Putin sounds similar… 

Macron decides that France will send French made tanks to Ukraine! These are the first  Western tanks sent to Ukraine… (And from a NATO founding member!).

The French decision was “the first time a Western-designed tank will be delivered to Ukraine. Symbolically, it’s important,” said François Heisbourg, senior adviser for Europe at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

In the following days the US and Germany decided to send armored personnel carriers (which are not tanks)… because France decided to provide tanks with powerful guns, the AMX 10. Germany and the US followed, with simple armored personnel carriers a day later. Those APCs are armed with a 26 mm gun. The AMX10 French tank can pulverize dozens of armored personnel carriers in minutes with its 105 mm gun. By comparison, the famous M4 Sherman tank of WWII had a 75 mm gun…  AMX 10 are also mounted on enormous wheels, not tracks, and this means that they can move much faster, and further, than tracked vehicles… And Ukraine favor swift advances through bewildered Russian orcs (the “orc” label to qualify savage eastern invaders is more than 1,000 years old…)

France is also sending to Ukraine ASTER 30 NT, an anti-aircraft, anti-ballistic, 60 gs acceleration (that is 600 meters per second change of speed, per second, one mile per second interceptor also known as MAMBA, or “Sea Viper” (on UK Royal Navy ships). ASTER is for AeroSpatiale TERminale.  It’s the French Patriot, but more modern.

Finally. Advanced Western heavy weapons for Ukraine.

France often congratulates herself to be the country of human rights, and rightly so… Not just for enabling the USA to win its war of independence, or for the Declaration of the Rights of Man of 1789… Or for recognizing the equal rights of gay people in the… Sixteenth Century. But also for creating England, Germany, repelling enslaving Islam from 721 CE to… much more recent times… and for outlawing the slave trade of citizens as early as the Seventh Century… And even earlier than that, by putting an end to Christian anti-heretic terror.

One must crush infamy, as Voltaire put it.

What’s more infamous than Putin?

Even Hitler didn’t threaten to extinguish all of humanity, but Putin did (and his allies, friends if not lovers like the head of Russia Today insist that Putin will engage in a nuclear world war, and believe that’s a good thing! [1]. After the war, they should all be tried for crimes against humanity.)

Suddenly, apparently struck and dumbfounded by large Western weapons coming his way, Russian Tyrant Vladimir Putin’s claim that Russian forces will conduct a 36-hour ceasefire in observance of Russian Orthodox Christmas. It is likely an information operation intended to damage Ukraine’s reputation… but it may also reflect the desperate state of the Russian Donetsk front, and an attempt to reposition and arm units damaged by Ukrainian fire.

Putin has to be relentlessly defeated. Anything less will actually augment the risk of nuclear war. By encouraging him and his helpers 

Patrice Ayme
Sent to Ukraine now: French tank AMX 10 firing its main 105 mm gun in Afghanistan [2]:

[1] Margarita Simonyan, an intimate of Putin, obviously, and one of the primary mouthpieces for the Kremlin, said: “Either we lose in Ukraine, or the Third World War starts. I think World War Three is more realistic, knowing us, knowing our Putin.

“The most incredible outcome, that all this will end with a nuclear strike, seems more probable to me than the other course of events….“This is an horror… But on the other hand, it is what it is. We will go to heaven, while they will simply croak… We’re all going to die someday.”

(She said that as early as April 2022. Shortly afterward, RT and similar Nazi Kremlin propaganda was banned from Europe. Since then she repeated it many times. 

***

[2] The French invented tanks… Actually, French tanks were the first motor vehicles on land (18th Century; just a few were made). Here’s an excerpt from a former US Marine that once served together with the French forces in Afghanistan, detailing his experience about this Armored fighting vehicle in particular.
One giant advantage the French had over us was with their use of tanks. We maintain an armored force that’s fantastic at defeating T-80s crossing the Fulda Gap, not quite so fantastic at fighting insurgents in mountainous valleys. The French had AMX-10(RCR)s, light wheeled tanks that were perfect for counterinsurgency combat. They were a tremendous force multiplier.
One night before a major operation, I was laid out in the dirt on an outpost perimeter. I had fallen asleep at midnight. At 3 a.m. a tremendous explosion woke me. I lay still for a few moments, then asked a Marine on guard, “What the hell was that?”
He answered, “I don’t know, but something went right over our heads.”
When the sun rose, I was stunned to see an AMX-10 halfway up a mountain behind the outpost. A brave and/or stupid tank crew had rolled up a narrow trail in the dark, and hit some Taliban.
I didn’t envy the poor driver who had to negotiate that trail. Or the loader who I’m sure had to walk ahead of the tank, knowing that if he made a mistake his crew was rolling down the mountain. As a former tanker, I can tell you that driving a tank up a mountain in the dark isn’t something cowards do.” ~ Chris Hernandez, Former US Marine tanker and infantryman-turned-author.

If You Want Peace, Arm Ukraine To The Max ASAP

December 28, 2022

There is such a thing as military science, comprising, in part, the study of past wars. There are patterns.

Humanity is good and, or evil, according to prospects and circumstances. According to the law of action equals reaction, any violence will bring at least the same equal and opposite violence. One does not stop a modern military force through negotiations, but by defeating it on the battlefield. Defeat does not imply necessarily direct confrontation: McArthur, through island hopping, defeated the Japanese imperial army by circumventing its strong points and cutting it off: no food, and no fuel or ammunition. Most Japanese imperial soldiers in WWII in the Pacific theater died from starvation.

In 1931, a rogue Japanese army attacked Manchuria, seizing it from China. Tokyo was aghast. But the offensive was lightning fast, and a success, so Tokyo did nothing. In retrospect, World War Two had started: for the next ten years, the Japanese army would invade China ever more, fostering a genocide. Japanese army brutality would encourage Stalin to kill 6 million Ukrainians in 1933 (Holodomor). Hitler followed suit, making the “Axis” with Japan and fascist Italy, and invading Spain in 1936. France nearly helped the Spanish Republic… But the UK and US were opposed to it.

And Japan was fueled… by US oil. 

When France and Britain declared war to Hitler, that dictator was allied to the Kremlin (providing oil to the Reich, among other things). The US reacted by accusing France and Britain of “belligerence” and applied sanctions.

When France fell to the Nazis, the US didn’t even bark (Canada sent troops, which were beaten). Instead, FDR, having forgotten his “guarantees” to France, and after seven years of effectively pro-Nazi policies (covered up by criticism of Hitler), sent his right hand man to the junta in Vichy. The very dark deep US state, its universities, etc. had interest to see the French empire collapse: it would become part of the US empire. World government, ladies and gentlemen! 

Two to three million died in the French empire during WWII, up to 15 times US loss of lives. It’s a general feature of WWII that, so great was the destruction, including of archives, that sometimes one has no idea how many people died. Early estimates of the number of Chinese killed were from six to ten million. Most recent estimates are more than 50 million (even Japanese media now admits very high numbers)! After the war, many governments had no interest in revealing the extent of their failure to protect their own population… Or that they unconditionally, yet stealthy, surrendered to the victorious US deep state and its greedy plutocratic corporations…

In other words, WWII happened greatly because of divisions among the leading democracies and their friends… Many pursued their personal agenda. As usual, US plutocrats were allowed to run rampant, creating not just profit, but havoc by empowering dictators. 

This time, contrarily to what happened in the 1930s and early 1940s, confronted with the blatantly genocidal invasion of Ukraine, democracies have been in one block. Democracies have apparently been instructed by what happened in WWII: then, in the 1930s and early 1940s, the initial languor and disunion of democracies, and even their crass interest (not just the USA, but also Switzerland, Sweden, etc.) made the tyrannies strong. The democracies did not react properly when fascist Japan (invading China), fascist Italy (invading Ethiopia, Spain), and fascist Germany (invading the Rhineland, Spain) engaged in world war activities. Had the democracies acted in one block, early on, World War Two and its holocausts would not have happened.

So the democracies acted correctly this time: a fascist acted up, Putin, and invaded a democracy, which cried for help. The democracies passed the ammunition. In 1936, when fascist Germany organized the invasion of the Spanish Republic by a rogue army, the Spanish Republic asked the democracies for ammunition. Socialist France said yes, and then no, because the Anglo-Saxon leaders seemed to have liked what they saw, war in Europe. 

So this time the democracies are passing the ammunition. Good. But they are running out of ammunition.

At the peak of the fighting in East Ukraine’s Donbas region, Russia was using more ammunition in two days than the entire stock of the British military, according to the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank. Europe has ideas, but no weapons. The Kremlin is the opposite: plenty of weapons, little mind. 

***

It has helped this endeavor, helping Ukraine to survive, that the USA is, in the guise of reinforcing and arming Europe, has been able to extend juicy military contracts all over, turning all European powers, except France, so far, into military satellites. In particular, the US has sold F35 “stealth” fighter-bombers all over, and these are contracts meant to last 40 years… When a power agrees to buy 50 F35s, that’s 5 billion dollars, before maintenance and support, and there is no money for an equivalent European system. Now the increasing dependence of US manufacturing and military has been extended to anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems [1]. 

Negotiating with Putin is impossible: as a tyrant who has killed too many already, he has to win, or die, he and his kind. Right, the US is extending its empire, somewhat irreversibly… But, well, the Europeans made love, not war, and now that war is upon them, they are not ready physically or mentally to engage that way. Loving Putin is not an option anymore, love didn’t capture Putin and his clique, so Europeans have to let the US make war on Putin. As ancient Greeks used to say, the weak do what they must, the strong, what they can. By giving Ukraine the means to defend itself, the US incited all of Europe but France to become a US client state. This is a giant investment coup, which will profit the USA long term. The rest is creative destruction, nothing that high quality immigration can’t easily overcome.

The choice now is between the not so benign US empire of plutocracy, or thoroughly genocidal Kremlin Nazism (fake National-Socialism of real oligarchy).  

To prevent Putin’s win, all and any classical weapons should be provided to Ukraine, As Soon As Possible. Ukraine can bomb all Russian cities, just as Russia has bombed all Ukrainian cities. WWII blossomed because maximal war measures were not taken by democracies early enough.

In war, momentum is important: Ukraine has it now. If Putin can get Russia in a state of total war and total mobilization, thus total tyranny, so much the better for him, because he is the tyrant. Now if that tyrant blossoms that way, many other tyrants, or would-be tyrants, will be so inspired. This basically happened after a rogue Japanese army invaded Manchuria: tyrants, would be tyrants and their fellow travelers got inspired all over.

And history doesn’t truly repeat itself: now there are nukes. The Chinese tyranny is set on acquiring enough to destroy the world (by more than quadrupling its strategic nuclear weapons). All this will make the world ever more unstable, by switching from a two body problem (Russian tyranny + USA) to a three body problem (Russia, US, China).

In 1939, it took barely more than a week to expel Russia from the Society of Nations (UN version 1), after the Kremlin attacked Finland to invade and eradicate it. What are we waiting to expel Russia from the UN? That would solve the problem of the Russian veto at the UNSC. 

Russia should stick to culture, and sort of disarm, like the rest of Europe: here below a cathedral in Saint Petersburg… Magnificent:

[1] France has the Rafale active stealth fighter-bomber. The F35 is actually an imitation of the Rafale, but more oriented to passive stealth from the frontal aspect in some radar frequencies. The F35 would be better in some SEADs (Suppression Electronic Air Defenses). The Rafale has proven imminently capable in SEADs during a real war in Libya (F35 has barely been engaged by Israel in combat in Syria). Moreover, the Rafale is much more competent in “beast mode” (fully loaded with ammunition.

***

Europe, but for France (and Italy), have opted for US anti-ballistics with Patriot… While France produces the just as competent anti-ballistic Aster (and Italy and the UK are also Aster equipped). By ordering Patriot instead of Aster, countries such as Germany and Poland ingratiate themselves to, and become clients of, the US, not France. Ordering Patriot is an application to the status of a US subsidiary state

Fire Generals Sympathetic To Fascism

November 13, 2022

The defeat of France by the Nazis in May-June 1940 could likely have been avoided by just one factor: firing the Commander In Chief, Gamelin, on the job since 1931. Several French Prime Ministers intended to do it several times, but it didn’t happen, although the reasons the PMs had to fire Gamelin were prescient. Most prominent of all reasons, Gamelin was not exhibiting enough enthusiasm in fighting fascism. Gamelin made many decisions which were ridiculous, foolhardy, catastrophic, and completely outside of millennia of military science… And Gamelin made strategic mistakes on or before 1936. In 1939-40 his errors became astronomically baffling (for example sending the French reserve as far from France as possible!) Gamelin was fired within 5 days of the all out invasion, but by then Gamelin had ordered irreparable errors.

Studying Gamelin’s horrendous ways (Gamelin used landlines or messengers, not wireless radio as the Nazis did), one comes out with the impression that Gamelin wanted the Nazis to win… And that is confirmed, when he admits in his memoirs, written after WWII, that he, Gamelin, was more worried by the Jewish Socialist French Prime Minister Blum in 1936, than by the Nazi tyrant who had invaded Spain and the Rhineland the same year!

The top US general advocates to force Ukraine to negotiate with Putin. This is more than deplorable. It is a betrayal of democracy. It’s a cause for dismissal.

Right the democracies are running out of ammunition, and the Pentagon is fetching basic artillery shells all the way to Korea. But that’s because the democracies are in denial that they are in a situation similar to 1936. Had the democracies counterattacked the fascist regimes in 1936, or stopped collaborating with them (by sending fuel to Hitler, Mussolini and Hirohito, among other things)… World War Two in its full rage and attending genocides, would have never happened. In 1936, the British and US ground forces were tiny, completely unable to fight a world war, so UK and US decided that there was no world war, and that there would be no world war, as long as they averted their eyes from genocide (having deported 40,000 Ukrainian choldren from Kherson Oblast alone, the Kremlin regime is clearly genocidal…).

The Ukrainians are well equipped, because they are defending themselves and 50 democracies provide them with weapons, and even more with other non-lethal assistance. Now, clearly the democracies had decided peace would last 1,000 years. Instead a tyrant has threatened them to be visited “with destruction as they had never seen in their history” (to use Putin’s exact expression).

So the democracies are not armed either in quality and quantity to fight the world war they find themselves engaged in.

Some will pretend that this is not a world war. Such a denial is typical. Indeed, in the 1930s, there was clearly a world war situation in 1936, by the time when Hitler helped invade Spain and occupied the Rhineland, while Italy attacked Ethiopia, and Japan pushed deeper into China. However, it took another five years for the USA to get ready to fight a world war. France and Britain, who had declared war to Hitler were themselves slack in getting enough weapons at the ready (in particular France didn’t arm hundreds of brand new fighter planes… and Britain had a tiny army) 

Ukrainians can, and will fight through the winter. Winter is a friend of armored units maneuvering on hard ground. 

Russia is a corrupt tyranny, its soldiers are ill equipped, ill trained, ill motivated and will suffer through winter. They must surrender: Putin has resurrected “blocking sections” shooting fugitives.  

That the top US general advocate negotiating with the tyrant, the first tyrant who ever threatened to annihilate humanity, is not tolerable. Fighting Putin is like fighting a rattlesnake inside one’s bed: you can’t stop and go cuddly all of a sudden, just because you are ahead at some point. Any pause in the fighting will benefit Putin, as it will give him replenishment, and the opportunity to look so terrible that his enemies have to cease-fire.

Ceasefire was what the French Republic did with the Nazis on June 23 1940. US betrayal of France was an important reason for it (US “guarantees” given by FDR were not respected. Instead FDR sent his right hand man 5 star admiral Leahy, recognizing the collaborationist Vichy junta explicitly). 

All those advocating for a cease-fire with Putin advocate for a situation similar to that with Hitler when France agreed to a cease-fire in June 1940.

Ukraine can and should fight through winter. It fights for all of us. 

 France actually had the means to keep on fighting in July 1940, by retreating to Corsica, and North Africa.  Hitler could never have got there (the French Navy and Air Force were too strong, even without counting the British air force and navy). Why this did not happen has everything to do with the USA’s cat and mouse game with Europe: the USA had given guarantees to France in helping to fight Nazism, and then defaulted spectacularly on those guarantees in 1939-40. Understandably, many French leaders did not feel like doing most of the fighting and dying as in 1914-18, just to see the US grab most of the fruits of victory!

… And the question is: are we facing something similar today? Trying to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory? Yes, production and quality of weapons has to dramatically increase in the democracies, should they want Earth not to turn into a hellscape. So what? Nothing new there. Democracy is expensive.

Patrice Ayme

***

Notes:

Context of the WWII cartoon below which is making scathing fun of US pro-Nazi policies of 1939-40: when the commanding US general finally arrived in France in 1917, after three years of the French Republic being attacked and invaded by the fascist imperial German plutocracy of the Kaiser, he said: “La Fayette we are here!”. Both in 1914-1917 and in 1939-42, US powerful US plutocrats were entangled with the fascit regimes in Germany… to the point of insuring the survival of these fascist regimes. For example in WWI, after the US finally participated in the blockade of fascist Germany, German shell production collapsed and became a tenth of French production…

Auschwitz and similar events can be traced directly to the US’s astounding betrayal of democracy in 1939-40. Not only that but there were explicit guarantees to France, and also France (in two ways) and Britain are the parents of the USA… Not just allies. That Hitler basically planned to kill all Jews, like Putin basically plans to kill all Ukrainians (what Putin and Lavrov call fighting to the last Ukrainian… accusing others of the idea, but actually promoting the notion by evoking it…) 

***

ON Military Momentum During A Rout: When an army is routed, it is important to keep pushing it… That’s called a rout. World War Two showed several examples of this. Reciprocally, the Nazis, after a calamitous defeat in July-August 1944, pushed by the disembarkment in Normandy and Provence, were able to stabilize the front because of the one-bridge-too-far UK-US offensive in Belgium/Netherlands which turned into a costly semi-defeat for the democracies. The Germans actually called this miraculous stabilization the “Miracle on the Western Front“. If the bridge-too-far offensive had not been unlucky, with the presence of undetected SS armor, the Nazi Reich would have promptly collapsed in a matter of weeks, as intended.

Right now the Ukrainian are routing the Russians. That Mark Milley, the US C In C uses the occasion of a rout of Putin’s forces by the Ukrainian democracy to urge for “negotiations”, a cease-fire, that is, surrender is cause enough for dismissal. The ex C in C in France is advocating a similar surrender. One should not underestimate the “Hybrid Warfare” promoted by Gerasimov, the present Russian C In C. That includes betrayal by supposed adversaries which are actually secret allies. An excellent example is what happened with the French Communists in 1939-41, when their master in the Kremlin was allied officially with Hitler. This had dramatically adverse consequences for the military preparedness of France (planes were unarmed, less the Communists grabbed the guns…) 

US Military Dominance Brought 77 Years Of Peace. Now What? Welcome India! And Let The European Military-Industrial Complex Blossom!

November 5, 2022

The absence of new large scale war in the last 77 years was caused by US led military and diplomatic dominance of France-UK-USA (which control 2/3 of the United Nation Security Council Permanent Membership, and founded the UN, and its predecessor). The US, in particular, was the deus ex-machina of Pax Americana, having previously discreetly turned even Stalin’s USSR and China into client states (Putin and Xi were created by the established order). 

Not the sort of historical interpretation of reality that the establishment wants you to have.

The USA crucially and massively helped Stalin militarily in 1941, shortly after having refused to help the French Republic a year earlier in fighting Hitler (in spite of “guarantees” given by Roosevelt to France). According to expert Wehrmacht and Soviet generals, this US military help to Stalin saved the USSR from the Nazi onslaught. Moreover, Harriman had redeveloped Baku oil fields, offshore, insuring his colleague Stalin would have plenty of energy…

Why this apparently nonsensical behavior to those who believe the Shoah, or the Gulag, were very significant events? Because there is a deeper sense hidden below.

For the US Deep State, the French Republic was a world rival, co-leader with Britain of immense European empires. Demolish them, and the world would be an American oyster.  Stalin was just a Georgian, South Ossetian ex-bank robber, just a soldier of the US new order. So Stalin was given half of Europe at Yalta, by the US administration overruling an aghast Churchill, knowing full well that Stalin or his successors would ruin Europe and lose it and the Russian realm. As intended. 

***

Then the US led the effort to develop China, followed enthusiastically by the naive Europeans, who didn’t understand that they were de-industrializing themselves… Under the pretext of “free markets”… the latter being not applied by US law to any US state business… that includes the giant US military-industrial complex… Indeed, the US was spared degenerating de-industrialization with gigantic military budgets: if you have got to have the best rockets, planes and ships, you will achieve some technical dominance where it matters most: at the edge of destruction. China, after suffering a rough millennium of successive invasions, has understood this.

***

However, the US has been too successful in its dominance. Europe has adaopted a possum strategy: behave like a stinky corpse addicted to Putin gas. The US, led by Trump, has gone MAGA… But actually never stopped being MAGA: the cynical investment in SpaceX, a sort of private NASA, was a case in point. Under Elon Musk’s exalted leadership, SpceX went right ahead, and Obama financed him. Meanwhile, Europe degenerated. Germany taught China how to make cars, France taught China how to make trains, nuclear plants, and even planes. While the US kept up with a select immigration, Europe was more into illegal destitutes, and the European school system degenerated into teaching why it was so good to be destitute, invaded and PC. 

Thus the dominance of the West has eroded, due to the relative weakening of Europe… And the rise of many powers, worldwide, irrigated by the tax mitigating, “green” promoted investment of Europe anywhere but home.

Thus one should anticipate the return of large scale war… Except of course if the Kremlin’s attempt to boldly confront democracy and decency fails. Even then, European-American dominance will have to be strongly reasserted militarily. That means much more defense spending, with a balance between the US and Europe… 

Spending more on defense inside Europe with European companies is something many Europeans do not agree with, prefering instead to become obsequious clients of the US, a behavior that is so short-sighted, that even Donald Trump correctly insisted it should be discontinued… Trump may have missed the US Deep State’s sneaky strategy of making Europeans dependent on US Defense, hence US top notch technology. Trump tried to save Europe, so some in Europe insulted him. 

***

Modi, India’s PM, said in public to Putin that he had told Vlad that this is not the age of war. However, unfortunately, as resources relatively shrink, even before sea level starts to rise in earnest, this is going to be the age of warExcept if a strong military coalition led by the less corrupt democracies can reassert itself. This is one of the reasons why a democracy like India should be vigorously encouraged to join the West in all ways. So give India the treatment which has been extended to China for decades: massive development through manufacturing.

What can be extended to India, because it’s a democracy, should be extended to Europe. Germany and other European powers have greedily bought US military systems, in the hope that US weapons make the US stakeholder in their realms. This policy would clearly backfire, if Trump returned as president. It is obviously backfiring under Biden too, but because Biden is more polite, Europeans did not notice that they are digging their own economic grave. The Germans, full of traditional Teutonic resentment, have said they will not finance French companies: they much prefer to finance US companies, even when the French firms’ products are superior to the US one. An example is the Aster/SAM T/Mamba air defense, a French interception rocket capable of 60 (sixty) gs (60 times the acceleration of gravity) maneuvering. Germany prefers US or US-Israel rockets… Which are less performing for realistic situations as encountered in Ukraine…

Why does Germany do this? Because Germany, under Prussian influence, has learned Machiavellian power politics as a morality play. It’s known under various names, such as “Realpolitik”… Which is ironic, as Germany was the most unrealistic state in the world for generations. The resulting catastrophic bouts with fascism in the Twentieth Century have not cured the German mentality completely: as it used to look up to the Kaiser, Hitler, Putin, now it wants to look up to, and take order from, and be dependent of… Trump? Is that the smart thing to do?

Germany is prostituting itself, going from Putin’s hydrocarbons to now the weapons and gas of the US of Biden (the mental contortions would be more amusing if Trump were in power). Prostitutes deoend upon pimps, and that’s not a job for the future… A future full of war, be it only against the rising ocean…

***

No weapons, and the will to use them, no democracy. The rise of democracy was directly caused by the domination of the hoplites (heavy infantry) over aristocratic cavalry. Modern equivalent is control by We The People of dual use technologies, including debating power.

Patrice Ayme

The Taj Mahal is exemplary of the cultural wealth of India. It can be viewed as a Muslim monument. Commissioned in1631 by the Mughal emperor Shah Jahan (r. 1628–1658) to house the tomb of his favourite wife, Mumtaz Mahal; it also houses the tomb of Shah Jahan himself. The tomb is the centrepiece of a 17-hectare (42-acre) complex, which includes a mosque and a guest house, and is set in formal gardens bounded on three sides by a crenellated wall.

The Mughal Empire ruled much of South Asia between the 16th and 19th centuries.For some two hundred years, the empire stretched from the outer fringes of the Indus river basin in the west, northern Afghanistan in the northwest, and Kashmir in the north, to the highlands of present-day Assam and Bangladesh in the east, and the uplands of the Deccan Plateau in South India (Kerala to the extreme south stayed independent). It was founded in 1526 by the Uzbek Babur.

Learning From Nazi Victory In 1940: Foolhardy Can Work

November 2, 2022

War determines history. To learn from history, then, is to learn from war. War is full of surprises, because surprises are what makes attacks possible. A democracy can be defeated at a stupendous speed in a surprising attack, by a wound in the heel, like Achilles. The most enlightening defeat is that of France by Hitler in 1940. Because the factors in the French defeat show that it could happen to democracy again, just way worse. Lunatics like Xi and Putin could push the button: their minions won’t stop them.

In May 1940, in a completely unlikely fashion, the Nazi army defeated by surprise the French Republic. It would be a bit as if the Chinese dictatorship of Xi defeated by surprise the United States of America. It made little sense, when looking at the forces, and should not have happened. If any of several extraordinary technical factors and calamitous decisions had not be present, and they should not have been present, the Nazis would have suffered a crushing defeat.

One myth about World War Two is that German genius came up with an amazing plan, what later Churchill called a “sickle” strike. That’s true in a way, but the plan was adopted in despair, and worked, thanks to a number of miracles operating in concert with colossal incompetence of one man, general Gamelin, who had dictated to the french army for 9 years. 

Hitler was the one who approved this extremely foolhardy plan which could work only by miracle. And that plan came to be known as “Blitzkrieg”, lightning war… instead of its proper name, Bewegungskrieg (movement war, French: guerre de mouvement)… That particular attack of May 1940. instead of being called foolhardy, which it was, came to be considered a proof of genius. 

So later Hitler thought he was a genius who could make miracles… forgetting 50,000 of the most elite Nazi soldiers died in 6 weeks of rude combat in France… And that Gamelin was Hitler’s most precious collaborator. Hitler was no genius, and couldn’t make miracles: next time Hitler tried something like that, in Crete, the nearly entire Nazi paratrooper corps won, indeed, but also (nearly) all died.   

So Germany did NOT “see it coming a mile away” that the French would know how the Nazis would attack, and thus the Nazis divised a completely foolhardy plan to defeat the French army, which was more formidable than the Nazi army.

Instead  god operated a miracle. A plane with the Nazi plans crashed in Belgium! The officers on board tried to destroy the plans by burning them after the crash. But the plan burning was partly unsuccessful before they were taken prisoner. This Mechelen incident forced the OKH (German Army High Command) to revise their entire strategy now that they knew that the Allies knew their plan. That was too bad, because the initial plan, Fall Gelb, had indeed been fully anticipated by the French (and thus would have been crushed). 

So Hitler ordered to change the plan… and knowing they would otherwise lose, the Nazi general Von Manstein came up with a completely crazy plan: two-thirds of the German army and armor was to go through three mountain roads of Belgium and Luxembourg. It helped that the British Inspector of the Allied Forces ex-King Edward VIII sent a note to Hitler telling him where to strike (at Sedan). The note was kept by Albert Speer…Guderian, head of the Panzer at Sedan got nearly killed by a boar head which fell from the wall from the shock of a French bomb from a plane. He called the OKH and told it that they couldn’t get through, French defenses were too lethal to cross the Meuse river. Guderian was told to attack and breakthrough, no matter what. Guderain sent suicidal Nazi engineers  with exploding backpacks. Four top elite Nazi formations, including three armored divisions (Panzers), plus the entire Luftwaffe were facing one “crocodile” (wrinkled men) reserve French infantry B division… The 55th division, which had only one anti-aircraft battery (reminiscent of the very few anti-air systems which the democratic West had in 2022).

The crazy plan of getting the German army through the Ardennes worked through sheer luck, not believing some French and British pilots who saw the immense, 200 kilometers traffic jam, and possible betrayal of a few French generals, and, or, their amazing incompetence in denial of millennia of basic strategy… The French C in C sent the seven divisions of the French armored reserve to the Netherlands… By itself, those seven divisions had roughly the same power and speed as the entire Nazi armor. 

Nazi ardor should not be underestimated: the French command estimated that it would take the huge mechanized force of tanks, armored and reconnaissance vehicles a week to cross the Ardennes. But, without significant Belgian resistance… Belgium was “neutral” just before that!… it took the Nazi army just a day…

The fact that the Nazis had trained in war conquering Spain for three years helped them (radio in tanks, communications with planes, need for decisive speed). By the time France and Britain learned how modern war was fought, a week after the German breakthrough at Sedan, all the best French armies and the British expeditionary force had been surrounded and cut off from fuel and support.

Many other exceptional factors played a role in disservice of the cause of democracy in May-June 1940, including the facts the US refused to deliver its “guarantees” to the French Republic, and, instead, negotiated with the Nazis (little known fact). One goes away with the ill feeling that Washington didn’t mind if a few Jews and French got injured in this American experiment to let the Nazis rule Europe…

It is worth repeating this story.

The huge mistake the democracies made before 1940 was not to fight Hitler in 1936, when he invaded the West Bank of the Rhine and militarily invaded and attacked the Spanish Republic. Without the Nazi intervention, the fascist coup by part of the Spanish army would have failed, because the Spanish Navy did not betray the Republic.

If France had intervened militarily in 1936 and fought the Nazis, the French army would have learned a few tricks it needed to learn, and the French government would have had all the reasons if needed to fire the Chief of Staff Gamelin (who got to that position in 1931, so was entrenched)… which was correctly suspected of incompetence and Nazi sympathies… But  French Jewish PM Blum of 1936 was not going to fire him, notr attack the Nazis in Spain while Britain and the USA disapproved… etc…

Second best, an all-out French offensive in 1939 would have shown to French politicians that something was so wrong with the French command, that it needed to be replaced immediately (French politicians had been inclined to fire C in C Gamelin for several years already).

***

DEMOCRACIES HAVE LEARNED A BIT FROM 1940:  

That mistake, of not fighting the genocidal tyrant early, is not repeated in Ukraine: the democracies have understood the danger, and stand united, whereas in 1939-1940, the USA stayed deliberately in a position which de facto supported the fascist regimes. For example US capitalists provided Japan with the oil it needed to pursue its genocide in China.

In the 1930s and in 1940-41, the US practiced “divide and rule” on the grandest scale, helping the fascists to defeat democracies, because those democracies were rivals and in the way of the USA. 

Some will object to this analysis, and tell me that I am confusing the US government and its revolving door of US capitalists accessing the lever of powers of said government…  Chinese analysts would understand perfectly wel what I mean: they use the effect themselves at this point in the hope of controlling the world, for example by having Chinese enterprises buying most of the large mines in Congo.  

In 2022, de facto, Ukraine has become part of NATO. The total defense and security assistance  provided to Ukraine by Western nations in the current year stands, on November 1, 2022 at EUR 41.3 billion, which is 86% of the military budget of the aggressor power, the Russian Federation.

By getting militarily involved, the West is learning to fight a modern war. Armageddonic threats from the nuclear dictator, reminiscent of those of Hitler, have been correctly ignored: one cannot let madmen decide the fate of humanity. Let them rage. The Russians have to understand as soon as possible that their tyrant will only bring them ruin… A notion, the self-destruction brought by tyrants, which crept forward too slowly with Hitler and Mussolini…

And one thing that the democracies are learning is that they are insufficiently defended.

Three Nazi Panzer divisions (plus the elite Gross Deutschland regiment, not shown, on the left flank of the 10th Panzer) converged on the 55th B Reserve French divisions to cross the Meuse river). The foolhardiness of the German nazis was made possible not just by the stupidity of the French C in C, but also Belgian neutrality, which prevented the building of the Maginot line through Belgium, thanks to US diplomatic intervention, and, then, in 1939-40, prevented the presence of the French army in the Belgian Ardennes… which, at the very least, would have acted as a trigger wire…

Attackers win by breaking the balanced state of things, thus by using surprise, most of the time. If one sees that a rattle snake is going to strike, one will avoid it, that’s why rattlers have rattles, and know how to use them… even though their brains are really very small. 

In his despair, Hitler tried something very foolhardy in 1940. In his arguably even greater despair, Putin may try something even more foolhardy in 2023, when he realizes that his frigid plan to freeze Europeans in general and Ukrainians most particularly, is not working. Thankfully, subsequent to my essay (which was sent to Biden), Biden alerted the world to Putin’s Armageddon solution, going nuclear big time, and by surprise. Since then, rumors and open critiques, even in Russian state media, have been preparing the information groundwork to think the previously unthinkable: not nuclear war, but the simpler solution of removing Putin…

In his despair, Hitler tried something very foolhardy in 1940, and it worked. But, after that Nazi foolhardiness didn’t work anymore (although it seemed to work in the first four months of Babarossa; after that Guderian observed that the Russians had learned Nazi Bewegungkrieg…) The Japanese high command, in its despair, running out of oil suddenly cut by the suddenly not friendly Americans, imitated Hitler’s foolhardines in December 1941, by “awakening the sleeping giant” (as Admiral Yamamoto put it)… just when the Nazis started to freeze in sight of the Kremlin’s golden roofs… So the Japanese attacked at Pearl Harbor, foolhardiness seemed to work, but within a few months, they found themselves defeated at the Coral Sea battle (which prevented the complete conquest of New Guinea and thus, Australia), and then crushed at Midway (where Japanese naval aviation went to rejoin the bottom of the sea). 

Foolhardiness works sometimes… But, in the nuclear age, it’s not a risk humanity should tolerate. However, here we are: Russian military chiefs discussed the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Another reason to do without desperate tyrants. It’s no accident that Western stories vilains are often called “desperados”. “Desperados” will do foolish things… By being foolish, they got desperate. By being foolish, they surprised some people and encountered some success. But one can’t fool all people all the time…

Patrice Ayme

WHAT IS THE MOST BRUTAL TRUTH ABOUT WORLD WAR 2?

Democracy Against Fascism. So Boost Defenses: This Is World War Three.

October 22, 2022

This is a world war of democracy against fascism, it has to be taken with the utmost seriousness. Islamist Iran has chosen to help the Kremlin, and should be treated accordingly. Iran should be fought, and Israel should be aware that Iran is training in Ukraine. Silly Iranian drones produced in great quantity with tech grabbed all around the world, are having devastating effects. Not just in killing civilians, but in draining stocks of Ukrainian air defenses (which are refurbished S300 from the USSR, mostly).

Europe should not turn over-confident that Ukraine will win. Rifts may be appearing, because Germany is more willing to finance the US military-industrial complex… by purchasing US made systems rather than financing existing European ones which are similar or even better [1]. 

China is staying out of full involvement in Ukraine, but not out of sympathy for democracy. China is presently helping Russia a lot, for example, by buying hydrocarbons to Russia. Some experts claim that Russia would collapse in three weeks without Chinese help. An historical reminder: without Russian oil, Nazi Germany could not have fought, at all, in 1940. The Nazi tanks and planes would have stayed nailed to the ground. (Nazi Germany developped massive production from secret US Standard Oil process only later, and only later did Nazi Germany gain access to Rumanian oil fields, also in consequence of the defeat of France… Even then, Germany was not producing enough fuel, and thus, later in the war, German pilots could not be trained for little more than basic flying… This means that the alliance between the Nazis and Russia was crucial in 1939 to 1941… crucial to Nazu aggression…)

China is careful in not sending weapons to Russia that we know of, because it knows that it would lose if hostilities culminated into all out nuclear war. (In an all-out nuclear war with Russia, Western forces would direct nuclear fire not against cities, but against Russian nuclear forces. By precaution, they would also have to annihilate Chinese nuclear forces.) 

Fortunately, differently from what happened in WW1 and WW2, most democracies are reacting accordingly. Most democracies have understood that this is the war of one man against the world… So 143 countries voted against that man in the United Nations in October 2022.

Fifty (50) democracies are giving weapons or military help to Ukraine, including Sweden and Switzerland. The case of those two is interesting: Sweden and Switzerland, especially Sweden, helped the Nazis with their “neutrality” in World War 2 (Swiss help consisted in financial arrangements and crucial industrial production, for example the production of ball-bearings for Nazi war machinery… Until, by “accident”, the US Air Force bombed said factories…).

This time, confronted to this latest imperial fascist aggression, the USA is leading in the fight. This is a vast difference, with the years 1914-1917 and 1938-1940, when, very opportunisitically, cynically, and inhumanly, a treachorous USA let France and Britain fight for survival against fascism.

(The reason for the US not helping European democracies, for so many long years, when those were under fascist attack was that, as far as US plutocrats and the US Deep State were concerned, the colossal European empires stood in the way to the even more hummongous US empire to come. By weakening, damaging or even killing, France, Britain, Belgium and the Netherlands, the world promised to become  anew wilderness in which, helped by the US Cavalry, US capitalists could roam… A reproduction of how the US Wesr was won, … and exactly as it happened… This is why the US helped characters such as Mao and Ho Chi Minh, or even Khomeiny, and Muslim Fundamentalism, during that crucial juncture… Well done, Machiavellian style…)

In the present crisis, just as in World War One and World War Two, there is only one way out, the total defeat of fascism. Even more so, because, for the first time ever, a superpower used nuclear blackmail… On all concerned (the case of Japan in 1945 was different: the Japanese army had committed huge massacres, and was actually not blackmailed, but came to its leaders came to their senses, accepting surrender, within 12 hours of learning of the bombing of Nagasaki). 

Trying to mitigate and navigate around dictators is short sighted, especially when nuclear weapons are involved. Dictators, or at least the spirit which animate them, per their reigns, are intrinsically deranged and nilihilistic: they tend to prefer to die, rather than not to achieve their cruel goals.

In the invasion of Ukraine, nuclear weapons are involved, because of “nuclear blackmail”, an expression Putin himself used (accusing others to do it, but that’s the usual trick of the perpetrator accusing the victim of victimizing the aggressor..)

European unilateral disarmament of the last few decades, and will not to impose peace and order, in the name of an unreal view of human nature, has been a catalyst for the growth of fascist dictatorships, all over the world.

In particular, Xi’s China and the Kremlin have not been blocked in Africa, Europe’s own backyard, as they should have been…

All possible weapons have to be sent to Ukraine, and Europe has to scramble to arm itself (especially with anti-missile forces). Not defending democracy is the same as welcoming fascism. Not preparing for war is lethal to peace. Not preparing for nuclear war is lethal to civilization. Disarming when facing a nuclear tyranny is preparing for a worst so bad, only the grimmest science fiction, the sort with cannibalism, has imagined it.

And all this because idiots imagined that wolves could be persuaded to eat salad, through the sheer power of example… and didn’t want to be bothered when told that was unrealistic. In other words, sheer idiocy.

The world “idiot” came from the Greek. idiotes… literally “private person”  as opposed to one taking part in public affairs, politics. “Idiot” came then to be used patronizingly for “ignorant person,” from idios “one’s own”… and then passed in Latin and later French medieval usage. In other words, idiots are individuals so preoccupied by their personal, inner world, that the world escapes them. This is what happened when self-glorifying “pacifists” took over… And decided to buy all manufacturing in China and gas in Russia… while retiring at age 60 (as is the case in France).

Similar idiocy is deployed in the climate crisis. The French Prime Minister actually declared that energy consumption in France will have to get lowered by 10% next year (because of the war in Ukraine, supposedly, coincidentaly with Macron closing or neglecting nuclear reactors to the point that half of them are stopped for maintenance and two have been dismantled). In either case, strategic idiocy… a form of hubris

No US soldier was injured during the shooting of that movie. London on fire, 1940. Where was US help? A few month before, Roosevelt had sent his right hand man, 4 star Admiral Leahey as ambassador to Vichy, recognizing this way the Hitlerian friendly junta of Petain and other traitors…

***

[1] The French Mamba made of Aster 15 and 30 missiles in a Thales and MDMA collaboration, is as good and probably better than its US equivalent the Patriot system (Italian, French and UK navies use Asters for air defense). However Germany prefers to ingratiate itself with the US military-industrial complex… And that’s ironical, not to say foolhardy, especially considering how negative Germany was about Trump (and Biden is like Trump, just more polite, as a German minister in Merkel’s government pointed out… even Trump asked Germany to boost defense spending, and that must mean not just buying more US equipment, but building a European military-industrial complex…).

WORLD WARS LAST A LONG TIME, Because They Have Deep Roots

August 11, 2022

Arguably the “Sea Peoples” invasions was the first world war, 33 centuries ago. This somber plot accompanied, or caused the Bronze Age collapse, when nearly all advanced civilizations of Western Eurasia disappeared, followed by dark ages. Several Pharaohs commented on the Sea Peoples, including Ramses II. Later, in one of several texts in stone, Ramesses III wrote, in 1175 BCE, relating, among others, the annihilation of the end of the HittiteMycenaean and Mitanni kingdoms: “The foreign countries made a conspiracy in their islands, All at once the lands were removed and scattered in the fray. No land could stand before their arms…” [1]

Most of the military collapse of the Roman state happened swiftly (395 CE-406 CE)… however, the Germans had put Rome in military difficulties since Caesar (50 BCE)… And Rome was at war with itself since longer than that (and that war with itself caused the invasions, as Roman corruption and devolution was a crucial factor in the success of the Goths, say at Adrianopolis; see note [2]).  

***

The Mongol world conquest of the Thirteenth Century, spanned from Europe’s Adriatic Sea to China, Indonesia and Japan. That war also lasted half a century or so. (As I relate in Note [2], in the case of the Romans, the Mongol conquest of Rus was made possible by the deliquescence of the invaded lands. Kyivian Rus had become a military nebulous state… When the Mongols encountered stiff resistance in Hungary, they found the losses unbearable, and return thence they came…)

***

The war of the Spanish succession, the Seven Year War, the war against the French revolution (1792-1815), WWIi and WWII (1939-1945) were all long world wars. World wars are always long, because peace has to be preceded by economic and, or, demographic exhaustion of the participants, and, or of the defeated.

***

Terrorized by Putin’s nuclear threats, the democracies have taken 8 years to come to the serious rescue of Ukraine since Crimea got invaded. Even to this day, the fact that, barring a coup in Moscow, this is a world war, is not generally acknowledged, although more than 50 countries are helping Ukraine militarily. This denial of blatant evidence only extends the conflict. 

***

ECOLOGICAL CATASTROPHE OFTEN PRECEDES WORLD WARS:

Ecological problems often preceded invasions. Indeed, with Rome, the mines got exhausted after 100 CE, and that turned into a currency crisis, then a confidence crisis and an economic crisis, which brought invasions and “barrack emperors” (50 emperors or so during the Third Century).

Renewable energy, on which 5 trillon dollars was spent (roughly the annual GDP of Japan) has itself been slowed down by the fact it needs hydrogen (and derivatives) as an indispensable complement, to replace fossil fuels by green hydrogen. Instead of installing hydrogen, nuclear energy was de-installed, and new forms of nuclear energy, much safer, non weaponizable, and less polluting, were not funded (except in China and India). This mis-investment has created a world energy crisis. 

De-carbonification without nuclear and hydrogen is simply impossible, thus a fraud and a lie. The cost of that lie is the devastation of the biosphere, now clearer, one heat wave at a time. It was also a lie to believe one could have a civilization in common with Putin. All these lies are coming together nicely, and the result is going to be a crisis deeper than any seen before. Global trade is a necessity, in the present world organization, but it depends upon cheap energy… Just as food production depends upon water, the fundamental reason why Putin invaded the rest of Ukraine in 2022: Crimea was out of water, and the rest of Ukraine refused to provide it by the canal from the Kherson Oblast.

***

World wars have started for ecological reasons, for example the one of the “Peoples of the Sea” we started this essay with: there is evidence of plenty of extraneous factors incurring at the time: a megadrought, plus quakes, and volcanic eruptions, and also the rise of disruptive iron technology (which may have helped some invasions, such as the one of the Dorians; think Sparta). Famine arose at the time, bringing forth calls to help from the Hittite empire to their old rival, Egypt. Egypt sent grain to its old enemy! The Hittites got the grain from Egypt, but were soon invaded by the “Peoples of the Sea”, and vanished as a civilization… part of the Late Bronze Age collapse, which brought four centuries of Dark Ages to Greece, among other disasters…

“Ecology” has to be understood in the broadest term: when the Huns pushed the Alans, Goths and other Germans in front of them like frightened cattle, the Huns had slightly better recurved bows.  

We now have on our hands, potentially and enfolding, the greatest disaster in 66 million years: the anthropocene is causing several ecological crises, including the worst of them all, the GreenHouse Gas crisis. And the dominant species has the most powerful weapons, ever, by a very long shot… weapons so powerful that a medium nuclear exchange would be more devastating than a V8 volcanic eruption (as happens every 15,000 years in the average) 

An all-out world war, using nukes, will be pathological, and completely out of the ordinary, as defined in the history of life on Earth…

So how do we avoid a devastating world war, as the ecology becomes ever more difficult? By learning how to get smart and see far ahead in the landscape of solutions… The best way to avoid war is by having those vested most in the statu quo ante to be militarily superior in such an obvious manner than those who have interest to disrupt the established order, and thus make war, cannot do as the Sea Peoples did, plan war, and attack… because they thought hey had a realistic chance of victory. This is why and how the famous Roman adage:”Si vis pacem, para bellum” works… or more exactly, worked.

When the Roman empire was defeated, at the end of the fourth and beginning of the fifth centuries, what faltered was the will to go to war with all the means the Roman empire potentially had: no more than 100,000 warriors defeated 60 millions… Because those 60 million Romans mostly had lost, over centuries, the status of stakeholders they had when Rome was dominant as a Republic. So the world war which precipitated the fall of the Roman state (in which the Huns were crucially involved, and they came from Mongolia!) was even longer in preparation, than it was in execution, by a factor of ten, or more [2].  World wars, and their preconditions, are often enfolding in the longest time imaginable.  

After their costly victory in Hungary, the Mongol generals themselves said they thought they would lose against the Franks, as they remembered what had happened to their ancestors the Huns fighting in Gallia (first against the Franks… then the Franco-Romano-Gothic coalition). Oral tradition had passed, over eight centuries, from Huns to Mongols (with the Avars and Magyars somewhat in between): in the confrontation between steppe, mostly Mongolia originated, warriors and the civilized cities, one can speak of a world war which extended from Toulouse (which the Huns sieged with their Roman allies!) to Indonesia (which the Mongols tried to invade), over a millennium…

Civilization must be defended, sometimes with weapons in action, always through introspection first

Patrice Ayme

Hittite empire collpased around 1200 BCE, 32 centuries ago, one of many major collapses. Greece plunged in Darkness

[1] This is one of the many Egyptian texts in greater extent, from Ramesses III: “The foreign countries made a conspiracy in their islands, All at once the lands were removed and scattered in the fray. No land could stand before their arms: from HattiQodeCarchemishArzawa and Alashiya on, being cut off [i.e. destroyed] at one time. A camp was set up in Amurru. They desolated its people, and its land was like that which has never come into being. They were coming forward toward Egypt, while the flame was prepared before them. Their confederation was the PelesetTjeker, Shekelesh, Denyen and Weshesh, lands united. They laid their hands upon the land as far as the circuit of the earth, their hearts confident and trusting: ‘Our plans will succeed!‘”[83

***

[2] Rome’s collapse, as a Republic, started around 150 BCE, and was complete by Theodosius I’s murderous religious edicts of 381 CE. Thus it took more than 5 centuries. The military collapse, though occured swiftly between 394 CE (annihilation of the Occidental Roman army by Theodosius !), and then 395 CE (invasion of Italy) and 406 CE (crossing of the frozen Rhine by German nations piercing the Frankish limes) or 410 CE (capture of Rome by the Goth Alaric, ally of Theodosius I). So we see that the deliquescence of the Republic by corruption took 50 times longer than its direct consequence, defeat by military invasion. We also see that just one bad leader, Theodosius, was mostly at fault… Just as one bad leader, Gamelin, caused the Fall of France in May-June 1940… Both Theodosius and Gamelin were not just stupid, but full of ressentiment (Theodosius against non-Catholic, perhaps because of his father’s execution) and Gamelin against the French Popular front of PM Blum (perhaps because Blum was a Jew, so Hitler was viewed as a lesser danger, as Gamelin himself wrote in his memoirs…)

To Avert Nuclear War, Convene A Conference To Outlaw Military Use Of Civilian Nuclear Power

August 8, 2022

OUTLAWING ATTACKS ON NUCLEAR WILL MAKE NUCLEAR ATTACKS LESS LIKELY… From A Mass Psychology Effect…

Nuclear power is crucial as base power for a carbon free future. I explained that keeping fossil fuels as base energy is a trick to keep fossil fuels at 84% of total energy.

Nuclearizing electric power production would have required having four thousand (4,000) nuclear reactors, worldwide… instead of 400. 

Disappointingly, the percentage of electricity that comes from low-carbon sources today is almost unchanged from the mid-1980s. Throughout the early-2000s this low carbon share actually regressed, greatly because of the shutdown of nuclear reactors.. 

Yes, electric consumption is only 20% of total energy consumption… So going nuclear on electric would not have solved all. (We need more such as hydrogen for transportation!)

***

Nuclear can be made very safe, and non-polluting. The only deadly civil nuclear power accident was in Ukraine at Chernobyl, a type of reactor (graphite-gas), power (way too much) and construction without containment, which are all de facto illegal in the West. Yes, Chernobyl should never have been built. (Ukraine has the world’s highest production of electricity from nuclear reactors, a distant second behind France.) 

By comparison, fossil fuels kill around ten million people a year, and probably much more.

The Orcs of Putin have attacked nuclear installations in Ukraine, and transformed them into battlefield. That should be unlawful. It is also a way to inure us to Putin’s military use of nuclear energy… Something he already did by threatening to destroy humanity with nukes if we don’t let him destroy Ukraine.

*** 

Dams were attacked in World War Two, causing great damage and loss of life. Now a worldwide convention outlaws attacks on dams, and it has been, so far, respected in Ukraine, which has several giant dams. Mr. Putin has not suggested that he would destroy dams to get his way.

Trying to outlaw attacks on nuclear installations right away would indirectly heighten a worldwide healthy alarm against Mr. Putin’s nuclear ways. Mr. Putin has weaponized the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, by stationing heavy weapons there. Mr. Putin also implicitly threatened to use nuclear weapons to make his invasion of Ukraine work.

Thus calling for a worldwide conference to outlaw attacks on nuclear installations would make it less likely, from general indignation, and the possible loss of allies that it would entail, that Mr. Putin would dare to use nuclear weapons (as using nukes is generally worse than attacking nuclear installations).

Hence there is an excellent reason to rush an outlawing of nuclear attacks, as Mr. Putin’s effective defeat in Ukraine makes it ever more likely that he will use nukes on the battlefield.

Whereas the three nuclear armed democracies (US, UK, France) have refused to declare they would never ever use nuclear weapons first, they would certainly agree to not attack nuclear installations directly, so they would support such an approach. Nuclear power is an important way to mitigate the CO2 crisis…

Under Putin, the Russian military decided to adopt a doctrine of “escalate to de-escalate”, which includes using battlefield nuclear weapons… First usage of nuclear weapons, or attacks against nuclear installations is not explicitly unlawful. However attacks against dams are. 

The Russian military may detonate a few nukes against concentrations of Ukrainian troops (a good reason to avoid those)… Hoping that the democracies, terrified by nuclear war, would then just submit. Thus NATO should create an appropriate answer, not just hope that Putin will not go crazy (as it is clear Putin is not analyzing the situation clearly, this hope is inappropriate).

Patrice Ayme

Russian Tank camouflaged in front of Zapo nuclear reactors 1, 2, 3 and 4… August 4, 2022. Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), which Russian invaders are now threatening to blow up, contains 1,200 tonnes of nuclear fuel. If Russia decides to commit a terrorist attack, the nuclear disaster will affect the territories of both Russia and Ukraine.
…Says Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration Head Oleksandr Staruk…

Ukraine Genocide As Official Kremlin Policy

July 9, 2022

It’s Putin’s full intent to turn his annihilation of Ukraine into an indefinite insurance for his dictatorship by fostering a terrible war which in turn justifies his tyranny. The intent is genocidal:”Fight to the last Ukrainian!” the Kremlin tyrant declared in July 2022… Yesterday. So the continuation of the war enables Putin to commit a genocide, Putin himself said, turning genocide into policy!

Putin warned 7/7/2022 that his invasion of Ukraine could continue until the “last Ukrainian is left standing,Reuters reported. During a speech to parliamentary leaders, Putin claimed Russia was just getting started with the war in Ukraine, more than four months after he invaded his neighbor.

Today we hear that they want to defeat us on the battlefield. Well, what can I say? Let them try,”

In a sense this is a situation which was never encountered before: genocide is officially part of the calculation, and the rescuers of the assaulted country are accused of it, by Putin! Putin’s argument is that the 50 allies of Ukraine are committing a genocide by extending the war.  

OK, on second thought, the Mongols had such a policy: they would show up at a city, order surrender, and declared that resistance will cause annihilation. This is what they did to Kyiv, the capital of Rus, then, massacring everybody after a short siege, except for the leading defender himself. Kyiv, then one of Europe’s largest cities, was annihilated… Muscovite Rus would rise by doing the exact opposite: allying itself as executioner and taxman for the Mongols, led in this by the famous Alexander Nevski (and this is why the statues of the later are being removed in Ukraine…) and then his grandson Ivan I Money Bag… 

***

The way Putin looks at it, this strategy of genocide ensures victory. And, actually, Putin is winning, in the sense that the territory that he controls is a large part of the wealthiest Ukraine. As a bonus, he is destroying plenty of Ukrainian wealth and lives….

The West can’t stay in the war if the West does not militarize its economy… Russia did this a few days ago, by passing the appropriate laws… From now on, industry, private or public can’t refuse military orders, whatever they are, such as working 24/7. This is a world war, and it’s time for democracies to act as if it were… Not doing so will only make the situation worse…. All the way to “escalate to de-escalate”, that is the Putin doctrine of using nuclear weapons.

As long as the West does not fight this world war with complete determination, Putin feels that he is likely to win it, and thus keeps on going waging war, causing irreversible damage, including psychological damage. When, after many months of this Putin will realize that he is not yet winning, as he should in his opinion, he will naturally feel that this delayed victory is the result of his own insufficient exhibition of determination… So he will use nukes at that point to make sure the West feel in its bones that it will never match Putin’s determination. MAAD: Madly Atomically Assumed Determination.

This is no small war, it’s the war of the Russian autocratic tradition, of the “empire which never ends” (quoting Putin again, in a statement he made in 2016…)… a traditonal Kremlin expansion war, in its nuclear version, as Putin’s computation, from the start, was to use nuclear weapons one way or another! That sets his place in history, next to Alexander Nevski, who subdiued the independent republic of Novogorod, in the name of his Mongol overlord… And yes, Alexander Nevski is a saint of the Russian Orthodox church…. And Putin, starting in the 1990s, rebuild the Kremlin military in the spirit of a crusade, with the full help of patriach Kyrill… The one with watches so expensive (several dozens of thousands of dollars), that they had to be erased from official pictures… By the Kremlin…

Patrice Ayme

A Putin explosion in Ukraine… In 2017…. Some of these explosions are nuclear weapon strength…

P/S: The essence of the essay above was sent as a comment to the New York Times for

Ukraine and the Contest of Global Stamina
The conflict’s long-run trajectory seems increasingly likely to be shaped by whether the United States and its allies can maintain their military, political and financial commitments to holding off Russia.

… My comment was censored… Banned, rejected, condemned, ostracized, vilified and excommunicated… Mind control as the NYT is exquisite… Probably where Putin learned it…

Just War: Mobilize “Democratic” Military-Industrial Complexes. 

July 3, 2022

“Just wars” occur when submission strategies, such as appeasement, peace at all cost, nihilism, are less optimal for the many, or even worse, for the species’ survival. Some will sneer: they have a higher calling, they prefer to be eaten by wolves. Yet should other people’s children be eaten too? Others will point out that democracy is relative… Yet so is tyranny. Grotesque threats of nuclear war, and, or, destroying everybody, by Putin’s government officials are the ultimate terrorism, and, per se, constitute a crime against peace.

The invasion of Ukraine, an attack of a nuclear weapons brandishing tyrant on a democracy is a world war, with 50 democracies already allied with Ukraine. (By contrast in 1939, only a few dependencies of France and Britain joined Poland in fighting Hitler; the USA applied sanctions against France and Britain for having declared war to Hitler.) 

That world war, long prepared by Putin, has to be won by democracies… otherwise “the borders of Russia never end”… as Putin himself said in 2016. If we don’t invest enough now, in winning this war, that we are presently losing, the price will be much higher, maybe nuclear, later. Putin’s win would ensure world tyrannies as the new governance, with the result of lowering civilizational intelligence below survivability.

Thus, democracies, and their industrial-military complexes should get on a war footing. Putin’s forces have been destroying a lot of Ukrainian artillery, including recently arrived 155mm US howitzers. Artillery is what the Ukrainians need, preferably of the highly mobile variety, as the French CAESAR truck mounted gun… France sent 18 of these guns to Ukraine, and the French army has only 80 left. Although France has more standard howitzers, Russia has approximately 1,100 of them, more than a thousand.

The US, after a few weeks of comabt, had sent to Ukraine 7,000 Javellin anti-tank rockets, one third of its total inventory. As it is, the US makes only 2,100 Jevellins a year. 

This is the situation all over the West, NATO has an insufficient number of (quality) weapons. Ukraine also needs field communications. Putin’s forces successfully jam a lot of them, including the latest encrypted US gear (but not the SpaceX internet satellite).

Ukrainian volunteer soldiers, insufficiently trained and equipped suffer pain, and death. To help them, they need training and equipment. We have to assume, and prepare for, the worst in the evolution of this world war. So doing, and only so doing, this world war will be mitigated… Proper war management here means more effort, and it is not just an economic, but also a moral challenge. There is something such as just war. This is it. Sometimes, those terrible times come back, when making war, not love, is the higher moral calling.

Sad but true.

Patrice Ayme

***

 

The French Caesar gun is very precise, its shells carry more explosives and it goes 50% further than its Russian equivalent. Ukraine was able to hit Snake island with it, forcing the evacuation of its Russian occupiers. These guns have been used in combat in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Mali… It can drive somewhere, stop, fire more than a dozen precise 40 kilometers shots, and then scoot away, all in less than 4 minutes, escaping counter-battery fire. The US HIMARS (HIgh Mobility Artillery Rocket System), now in Ukraine, does even better with great GPS precision. The version given to Ukraine goes only 50 miles, but the original US product could hit Moscow… from Ukraine… (Ukraine to Moscow is only 450 kilometers)


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