Posts Tagged ‘COVID 19’

Antibiotics: Crucial Against Viral Infections, Be It Covid19 or the Flu

March 22, 2020

CONTRARILY TO ILL CONCEIVED WISDOM… ANTIBIOTICS WORK AGAINST VIRUSES, In Several Ways:

Professor Didier Raoult’s research has demonstrated the antiviral property of the azithromycin antibiotic in the case of SARS2/Covid19. Moreover infections have been involved in a large proportion of COVID 19 deaths. By the way, bacterial co-infections are involved in 75% of influenza infections, according to the latest meta study from NCBI (extensively quoted below). Somehow, many Medical Doctors are unaware of this. (Jump to bottom for personal general conclusions, after all the science extracts…) Before the links, here is the truth, March 22:

CLOSED CASES: 112,174

Cases which had an outcome:

97,574 (87%): Recovered / Discharged

14,600 (13%): THIRTEENTH PERCENT DEATHS

Contrarily to what establishment propaganda is pretending, the death rate of COVID19 is getting worse. On OUTCOMES, the only relevant concept, the death rate is not one percent, as establishment propaganda insists it is, maximally lying, but thirteenth percent (13%). Ask 6,000 dead Italians.

Here are some links:

On antiviral antibiotic:

Novel antiviral properties of azithromycin in cystic fibrosis airway epithelial cells.

Schögler A et al. Eur Respir J. (2015)

Pharmacokinetic changes of antibiotic, antiviral, antituberculosis and antifungal agents during extracorporeal membrane oxygenation in critically ill adult patients.

Hahn J et al. J Clin Pharm Ther. (2017)

Azithromycin, a 15-membered macrolide antibiotic, inhibits influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection by interfering with virus internalization process.

Tran DH et al. J Antibiot (Tokyo). (2019)

And antibiotics work for influenza too:

There are 75% co-infections with bacteria in the case of flu, a meta-study in Frontiers in Microbiology, 23 June 2017, shows:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5481322/

Here is from the last review paper: 

“Abstract

Lower and upper respiratory infections are the fourth highest cause of global mortality (Lozano et al., 2012). Epidemic and pandemic outbreaks of respiratory infection are a major medical concern, often causing considerable disease and a high death toll, typically over a relatively short period of time. Influenza is a major cause of epidemic and pandemic infection. Bacterial co/secondary infection further increases morbidity and mortality of influenza infection, with Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, and Staphylococcus aureus reported as the most common causes. With increased antibiotic resistance and vaccine evasion it is important to monitor the epidemiology of pathogens in circulation to inform clinical treatment and development, particularly in the setting of an influenza epidemic/pandemic.

***

Introduction

From the Plague of Athens to the present day, infectious disease has beset mankind throughout history. Medical and socio-economic advances have substantially reduced this burden, the eradication of smallpox in 1979 (World Health Organization, 2017) and the remarkable successes against polio and parasitic Guinea worm disease being three examples of an extensive list. Respiratory tract infections, however, continue to be a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide (Lozano et al., 2012; Morse et al., 2012; Zumla et al., 2014). When combined, lower and upper respiratory infections are the fourth highest cause of global mortality (Lozano et al., 2012). Epi- and pandemic outbreaks of respiratory infection are a major medical concern, often causing considerable disease and a high death toll, typically over a relatively short period of time. The unpredictable nature of these outbreaks, in terms of their etiology and the reservoirs from which they emerge, the constant emergence of new antigenic variants by mutation, combined with transmission within potentially immunologically naïve populations facilitates the characteristic high proficiency of spread (Morse et al., 2012).

It is well established that both animals and humans can act as reservoirs of infection within which pathogens may adapt and evolve. Examples include Coxiella burnetii which typically causes Q fever in cattle, sheep and goats but can also infect humans (Eldin et al., 2017), the plague causing Yersinia pestis, infamously transmitted to humans by rats via a flea vector (Yang et al., 2016b), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) which originated in non-human primates before spreading into the human population (Rupp et al., 2016) and of course the most common example, influenza, which circulates within and between swine, avian and human hosts (amongst others). This cross-species flow can lead to adaptations that result in an increased pathogenicity to susceptible hosts, creating the potential for localized outbreaks or global spread (Murphy, 1998; Karesh et al., 2012; Morse et al., 2012). Important evolutionary modifications can occur during the timespan of an individual infection, permitting new and evolved strains of pathogens to emerge at an increased rate (Karesh et al., 2012). The evolution of pathogens (particularly zoonotic pathogens which account for 60% of human infectious diseases), and development of pandemics and epidemics, can be described in ecological principles whereby changing environmental pressures or opportunities drive a pathogen to exploit new niches or hosts to survive and thrive. This evolution is influenced by a range of anthropogenic factors, which include population expansion, changing land use and habitat destruction, selective pressures of increased antimicrobial usage, vaccination, global trade and travel (Daszak, 2012; Karesh et al., 2012; Morse et al., 2012).

Pandemics are generally viral in cause. This is thought to be due to their high mutation rate, which is particularly true for RNA viruses such as influenza where high nucleotide substitution and poor proof reading leads to the accumulation of errors in newly synthesized RNA strands. Influenza can also undergo re-assortment during mixed infection. These factors can result in divergence of surface antigens, such as haemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA), producing strains not recognized by the human immune system and not covered by extant vaccines (Holland et al., 1982; Webster et al., 1992; Chen and Holmes, 2006; Hampson and Mackenzie, 2006; Jones et al., 2008; Taubenberger and Morens, 2008; Dormitzer et al., 2011; Morse et al., 2012). For instance, influenza A is now known to have 18 subtypes of HA and 11 subtypes of NA (Li et al., 2012; Tong et al., 2012; Wu et al., 2014). This high mutation rate and the emergence of new strains can also make vaccine development and policy difficult to plan and carry out. Due to viral antigenic shift, yearly influenza vaccines are required so the population is sufficiently protected by the vaccine, however, vaccine composition is determined ∼8 months in advance of administration. This lag may allow new strains to emerge or for antigenic drift to result in a poor match between vaccine and the circulating strain of influenza. Furthermore as seen in the 2009 influenza pandemic, governments and public health departments face considerable difficulties in the production and distribution of vaccines when faced with sudden or unexpected outbreaks of newly emerged strains (Houser and Subbarao, 2015).

A common complication of respiratory viral disease can be secondary bacterial infection. Noting this association is important as it has clear implications for global health, principally because bacterial co/secondary infection is known lead to increased morbidity (Smith and McCullers, 2014). Co/secondary bacterial infection, as the name suggests, is a bacterial infection that occurs during or after an infection from another pathogen, commonly viruses. A number of viral infections (including infection from influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza virus and human metapneumovirus) can be complicated by co/secondary infection by a variety of bacteria including Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, and Staphylococcus aureus. This association leads to an increased severity of disease and sequela such as pneumonia (Smith and McCullers, 2014). In this review we dwell on influenza pandemics since the late 1800’s, focussing on the associations and complications that arise from secondary bacterial infection

Influenza

Influenza viruses are important zoonotic pathogens as they are highly contagious and one of the most prevalent causes of respiratory infection. Worldwide annual epidemics reportedly cause up to five million cases of severe illness, which result in 250,000–500,000 deaths per year. The majority of deaths caused by influenza occur in young children and people over 65 (World Health Organization, 2016). Reports suggest that each year up to 20% of the United States population may be infected by influenza…

There are three types of influenza virus, types A, B, and C, each differing in host range and pathogenicity (Taubenberger and Morens, 2008). Type A has been isolated from humans, avian, swine, horses, mink, dogs, seals, and ferrets (Jakeman et al., 1994; Taubenberger and Morens, 2008; Parrish et al., 2015), whilst type B has been isolated from humans, seals (Osterhaus et al., 2000) and ferrets (Jakeman et al., 1994), and type C from humans (Matsuzaki et al., 2002), swine and dogs (Youzbashi et al., 1996). Influenza A and B virions contain several structural antigens and three antigenic surface proteins; HA, NA, and M2/BM2 ion channels (Webster et al., 1992; Hampson and Mackenzie, 2006; Racaniello, 2009; Dormitzer et al., 2011). Influenza virus C only expresses one antigenic surface protein, haemagglutinin-esterase-fusion (HEF), and thus stimulates a lesser immune reaction than types A or B (Taubenberger and Morens, 2008; Racaniello, 2009). Influenza A is the fastest to evolve, at a rate 2–3 times faster than B, whilst C is the slowest…

Much is known about the havoc brought by a virus. Most spectacular is the destruction of the immune system within the lungs by the virus itself, which acts like HIV on steroids:

Throughout the past 300 years there have been 12 pandemics caused by influenza A; the most infamous being the 1918 ‘Spanish flu’ pandemic (Taubenberger and Morens, 2008). In the years between 1933 and 1957 there were nine influenza A (H1N1) epidemics and five influenza B epidemics. The worst of all these epidemics was the 1935–1936 influenza B epidemic that resulted in at least 55,000 deaths. This was closely followed by the 1943–1944 influenza A (H1N1) epidemic which caused 53,000 deaths (Glezen, 1996). Evidently, although influenza B doesn’t cause pandemics, it is still a cause for concern.

During an infection influenza virions attach to and enter host epithelial cells by the binding of viral HA to sialic acid on the host cell which instigates endocytosis and the movement of the virion into the cell within an endosome. The virus then uses/hijacks the host cells ‘machinery’ to replicate and transcribe viral RNA and produce more viral components (Samji, 2009). Progeny virions bud from the host cell, using the host cell membrane as a viral envelope, and go on to infect neighboring host cells (Nayak et al., 2009). As influenza infection develops the virus causes cell damage and death within the host’s airways and up-regulates the production of toxins, causing further destruction. Influenza cytotoxins for example causes necrosis of host cells (Conenello and Palese, 2007; Iverson et al., 2011). Influenza infection, particularly pandemic influenza infection, is known to generate an increased inflammation response within the host, as the body works to rapidly deliver immune cells to the site of infection. This inflammation is a response to the expression of cytokines and chemokines (de Jong et al., 2006; Kash et al., 2006; Kobasa et al., 2007; Rock and Kono, 2008). Virally induced decreased mucociliary activity, the dysfunction of immune cells and the reduction of phagocytosis reduces clearance of the virus from the host airways and the host’s ability to fight the virus (Brundage, 2006; Wu et al., 2011; Cauley and Vella, 2015). In an attempt to limit and control infection, the host immune system kills infected host cells. It does this in several ways, including; the production of perforin by Natural Killer (NK) cells which creates lesions/pores in cell membranes resulting in the induction of apoptosis, apoptosis from tumour necrosis factor (TNF) and FasL and the production of reactive oxygen species from macrophages and neutrophils causing oxidation of cellular lipids, proteins and DNA resulting in cell dysfunction and death (Topham and Hewitt, 2009; Kash et al., 2014; Kash and Taubenberger, 2015). Of course viral infection and/or interference with host processes can cause and direct the pathway of cell death, as is the case for necrosis. Host cell death, whether apoptosis, necrosis or pyroptosis, impacts on the severity and outcome of influenza disease in a variety of ways. Virally induced death of immune cells assist in the evasion of host defenses and hinders the clearance of the virus promoting the development of infection. Studies have shown a 90% reduction of alveolar macrophages in mice within a week of influenza infection, and evidence of necrosis in the remaining macrophages (Robinson et al., 2015). Necrosis and pyroptosis are pro-inflammatory due to their role in the release of cytokines. These cell death pathways allow for the rapid release of intracellular contents, including any viral components, from the infected host cell promoting host inflammatory responses and the formation of a cytokine storm which causes host tissue damage (Cundell et al., 1995; Rock and Kono, 2008; Lamkanfi and Dixit, 2010; Cauley and Vella, 2015). Furthermore infection with some influenza subtypes, for instance H1N1 and H5N1, typically result in lymphopenia, a state of abnormally low levels of lymphocytes, which has been associated with higher viral load. de Jong et al. (2006) found influenza infection caused lower levels of cytotoxic T cell lymphocytes, which would therefore negatively affect acquired immunity (de Jong et al., 2006; Cunha et al., 2009).

Bacterial Co-Infection and Secondary Infections

Laboratory, clinical and epidemiological research has made it abundantly clear that bacterial co/secondary infection can significantly increase the morbidity and mortality of viral infections (Gupta et al., 2008). UP TO 75% OF THOSE INFECTED WITH INFLUENZA THAT GO ON TO ACQUIRE PNEUMONIA, ARE CONFIRMED TO HAVE BACTERIAL CO-INFECTION (Zambon, 2001). Bacterial co/secondary infection of influenza infection appears to occur frequently. Studies have shown that up to 65% of laboratory confirmed cases of influenza infection exhibited bacterial co/secondary infection…

***

INFLUENZA OFTEN OCCURS WITH A BACTERIAL CO-INFECTION, And CONSEQUENCES ARE MOST DREADFUL:

Various studies have shown the impact when H. influenzae co/secondarily infects with influenza, and some suggest a level of synergism. The effect of influenza and H. influenzae co-infection verses individual infection of both pathogens is tellingly different; Shope found that co-infection resulted in severe disease or death when on their own H. influenzae and influenza only caused mild infection or disease (Shope, 1931). More recently, Lee E.H. et al. (2010) undertook a similar study which provided comparable results and evidence that influenza and H. influenzae co-infection produces more epithelial cell destruction than single infection with either pathogen (Lee L.N. et al., 2010). Furthermore, they found individual infection caused mild bronchiolitis within 4 days of initial infection, from which the host lung was able to recover. Conversely, co-infection caused bronchial necrosis, bronchial inflammation and bronchitis within the same time period or less, and led to further complication such as epithelial erosion (Lee L.N. et al., 2010). It is now commonly accepted that co-infection results in more severe morbidity and poorer clinical outcome than infection of influenza or H. influenzae alone.

Synergies also occur during co-infection with other bacteria:

…In an act of synergism, S. aureus infection may actually assist influenza infection by increasing the infectivity of influenza; when the virion is being moved into the host cell within an endosome the low pH in the endosome causes a conformational change to the HA [HA(0)] allowing it to be cleaved by host proteases into two subunits [HA(1) and HA(2)]. This cleaving ‘activates’ the HA, mediating fusion between the virus and endosome membrane, ready for the opening of the M2 ion channel so the vRNP (viral ribonucleoproteins) can be released into the host cell where the viral RNA is replicated and transcribed. Several strains of S. aureus produce proteases that cleaves influenza HA; the more protease that is available, the more HA can be cleaved meaning more vRNP can get into host cells meaning overall more progeny virions (Tashiro et al., 1987; Steinhauer, 1999; Samji, 2009). This aspect contributes to the increased severity of disease caused by co-infection…

HOW DID THE FLU OF 1918 KILL? BACTERIAL PNEUMONIA, 95% CASES!

Historical Evidence of CO/Secondary Bacterial Infection During Major Influenza Pandemics

1918 Spanish Influenza Pandemic

The 1918 influenza pandemic was a result of influenza strain A (H1N1). It is considered the most devastating influenza pandemic ever recorded, infecting 50% of the world’s population and resulting in approximately 40–50 million deaths worldwide. India alone suffered 7 million deaths (Potter, 2001; Hilleman, 2002; Brundage, 2006; Michaelis et al., 2009). The main groups of individuals affected by this pandemic were those aged 20–40 years old, in addition to infants and those over 65. Ordinarily only young children and the elderly are the age groups most at risk from influenza, showing how distinctive pandemic strains can be (Potter, 2001). It is suggested that war time efforts meant that influenza easily spread through military camps, allowing the 20–40 years old age range to be more at risk than usual.

There are many published examples of co/secondary bacterial infections during the 1918 influenza pandemic, and pneumonia as a consequence of bacterial infection is estimated to have occurred in up to 95% of deaths during this pandemic (Morens et al., 2008). A majority of those deaths due to secondary S. pneumoniae infection (Brundage and Shanks, 2008; Morens et al., 2008). Many of the examples that detail co/secondary bacterial infection come from outbreaks within army camps…

1957 Asian Influenza Pandemic

This pandemic affected 40–50% of people worldwide. The cause was influenza strain A (H2N2) (Potter, 2001). Although global death toll estimates vary [between 1.5 million (Gatherer, 2009) and 2–4 million (Michaelis et al., 2009)], the death toll in the United States is accurately reported to have been 69, 800 (Klimov et al., 1999; Hilleman, 2002). Post-mortem cultures show evidence of bacterial infection in up to 80% of all severe and fatal cases (Hers et al., 1958; Morens et al., 2008; Gill et al., 2010)… 

Conclusion

Viral infection aids bacterial infection in a number of ways, including unveiling/providing more sites for adhesion, impairing immune responses and causing cell and tissue destruction allowing for the spread of bacteria and development of invasive infection. Bacterial infection is then able to worsen clinical outcome and the severity of disease. Of course viral and bacterial co-infection can be mutually beneficial, further helping viral infection, which is bad news for public health. Although antibiotics can help reduce the impact of co/secondary bacterial infection, we still need to better understand the interactions between viruses, bacteria and their host, and to fully understand all mechanisms of disease. Particularly in light of increased antibiotic resistance and the ability of microbes to adapt and evade vaccine induced immunity.

The aim of this review was to emphasize the historical and continuing threat of influenza and to highlight the risk of bacterial co/secondary infection. Vaccines and antibiotics are readily available, however, with antibiotic resistance at an all-time high, vaccination is becoming even more vital in the fight against influenza epidemics and pandemics and the bacterial co/secondary infections commonly associated. It is important to examine the strains and types of bacteria and viruses being spread amongst and transmitted throughout the general public (or continue to in the case of influenza) to inform clinical treatment and development, particularly in the setting of an influenza epidemic or pandemic. As the threat from influenza is ever changing, we need to ensure we know what strains are circulating, which could cause issue and how they interact with other potential pathogens. This preparation also entails monitoring the changing epidemiology of bacterial pathogens associated with secondary infection, such as capsule switching which help S. pneumoniae evade immunity (Pai et al., 2005a,b).

***

Some of these results above are many decades, even a century old… So why the insistence that antibiotics are useless in the case of flu? Well, in the USA, the food industry uses antibiotics massively, in the feed of animals, every day (this is now unlawful in Europe). But not just that, in the USA, antibiotics are used on plants, even “organic” plants… Refined studies have shown that antibiotics resistant mutations evolved in those food industry settings… 

In other words, in the USA, antibiotics help profits grow everyday… The insistence that antibiotics should be avoided in humans maybe have originated as a coverup…

Patrice Ayme 

 

 

 

Why Idiocy Is An Exponential. Truth: So Far, TEN PERCENT, 10% Death On Closed Cases

March 20, 2020

We live in the age of lies and mental mediocrity, all over: corrupt idiots, so-called “influencers” becoming immensely wealthy on the Internet, precisely because they are popular, being idiotic… as more and more people are also idiotic, and they love to associate with their kind, all over. Idiocy is thus an exponential: the more idiots, the more you will be left out if you are not an idiot too. y it’s the easy way out of otherwise more difficult looking life.

These considerations of mine may sound a bit… exponential, but, actually idiocy is what plutocracy brings and how it sustainably rule. In the late Roman Empire, idiocy was strong and respected. All what people cared about was bread, god, and chariot races. This was clear during the Nika Riots.

The Late Roman empire had well-developed associations, known as demes, which supported the different factions (or teams) under which competitors in certain sporting events took part; it was particularly true for chariot racing. There were initially four major sport teams of chariot racing, differentiated by the colour of their uniforms. Just as in modern “sports”  the colours were worn by their supporters. These were the Blues, the Greens, the Reds, and the Whites. Emperor Justinian I was a supporter of the Blues. Idle minds could only emerge through the demes.

The team associations had become a focus for various social and political issues for which the general Byzantine population lacked other forms of outlet. Hence the Nika revolt or Nika sedition against Emperor Justinian I over the course of a week in 532 CE. They were the most violent riots in the city’s history, with nearly half of Constantinople being burned or destroyed and tens of thousands of people killed. It was extinguished by an extraordinarily bloody way, killing many thousands. Constantinople was all about locking minds down with stupidity, focused on… chariots and god.

We are not just in the age of fake news, but corrupt news, corrupt leaders. Watch how much the Clintons and Obamas were paid, for their good service to the plutocracy!… The Bush family was corrupt too, but that family tradition started big in the 1920s, and it had to do with financing, and then managing, Nazis. Yes, Nazis, no less. President Bush Senior (an authentic was hero, by the way; humans can be complex), son of his Nazi collaborating father, would head the CIA, among other things. Bush Senior could afford (literally) to be less greedy: his dad had made the fortune in wealth and influence.

So back to our harbor, truth. I know papers have floated around, saying we saw just a fraction of the infections of SARS 2. They use sophisticated models, and then let their computers churn. I am highly skeptical, because this sort of “truth” is exactly what all too many authorities, worldwide, want to hear. Here is the truth, as of March 19, 2020:

CLOSED CASES
97,431
Cases which had an outcome:

87,407 (90%)

Recovered / Discharged

10,024 (10%)

DEATHS
As you can see the death rate of SARS 2/COVID 19 is more in line with SARS 1: 10% TEN PERCENT!

SARS 1 created huge alarm and was stopped right away. This time the imbeciles in power, confronted to SARS 2 didn’t panic, so here we are: no world panic, but a world pandemic. Notice that China, culprit as all hell in this epidemic, did finally panic on January 22, ordering confinement. Trump ordered to confine China the 31… But European leaders didn’t move, because they were not mentally apt.

In New Jersey, three members of one family died. They had been infected during a family dinner by a super spreader exterior to the family, who came to dinner.

There are seven coronaviruses known to infect people. Four of them—229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1—typically cause a cold and rarely resulting in death. The other three—MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV 1, and the new SARS-CoV-2—have varying degrees of lethality. In the 2003 SARS 1 outbreak, 10 percent of infected people died. Between 2012 and 2019, MERS killed 23 percent of infected people. COVID-19 has already killed more people than the other two outbreaks combined… because it was not contained, in great part, but not only, Chinese Closed Society.

Antibody drugs developed for SARS 1 are adapted for SARS 2. The gene for the ACE-2 receptor, which is used by both SARS-CoV-2 and the SARS CoV-1 virus to enter host cells, is found on the X chromosome. If it’s a particular variant of the protein that makes people more susceptible to the virus, then females could compensate for that one bad variant because they’d have two copies of the X chromosome, whereas men would be stuck with only one copy.

As I said in the preceding essay, a big factor in older people dying more than the young, is triage. This is not reassuring: the virus is not just a health and economic catastrophe, it’s also an ethical catastrophe.

But keep on paying those people who don’t deserve all this money, give them medals, and take advice from them, as Obama, the revered figure, did!

https://patriceayme.wordpress.com/2019/05/11/heil-zuck-heil-bill-your-pet-presidents-will-do-as-you-say/

This epidemic was not just caused by biology, but despicable leadership (by ignorant individuals and errant values).

Patrice Ayme

Treatment For SARS 2/COVID 19?… & Don’t Take Ibuprofen/NSAID!

March 18, 2020

Crowned Creation against the Crown of Creation:

A drug used to treat influenza seems to be effective at treating the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19, according to news reports from Japan and China. This are among the news today. Another news is my own reinterpretation of the data available, and it shows that younger people are much more hit than what has been said.

The antiviral drug, called Favipiravir or Avigan, showed positive outcomes in clinical trials involving 340 individuals in Wuhan and Shenzhen, said Zhang Xinmin, of China’s science and technology ministry, The Guardian reported.: “It has a high degree of safety and is clearly effective in treatment,” Zhang said Tuesday (March 17).

Developed by Fujifilm Toyama Chemical, the antiviral drug is being manufactured by Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical for treating influenza viruses. It received approval as an experimental treatment for COVID-19 infections, Pharmaceutical Technology reported.

Patients in Shenzhen who had tested positive for COVID-19 and who were given the drug got a negative virus test back with a median time of four days later. That compares with a negative test about 11 days later, as a median, for patients not on the drug. In that same trial, lung conditions (as shown in X-rays) improved in about 91% of patients taking Favipiravir, compared with just 62% who weren’t taking the antiviral drug.

In the Wuhan trial, the drug also seemed to shorten the duration of a patient’s fever from an average of 4.2 days to 2.5 days, according to Pharmaceutical Technology. When it reproduces itself, influenza lacks the ability to errors, because it is an RNA virus. RNA, unlike DNA, lacks a self-correcting mechanism. Unlike double-stranded DNA, RNA is a singlestranded molecule in many of its biological roles and consists of much shorter chains of nucleotides. As a result, influenza, and other RNA viruses tend to not be genetically stable.

Favipiravir is specifically made to treat RNA viruses like SARS-CoV-2; these are viruses whose main genetic material is RNA, not DNA. The drug stops some viruses from replicating by crippling the ubiquitous enzyme (a substance that gets chemical reactions going) called RNA polymerase, which builds RNA. Without that enzyme intact, the virus can’t duplicate its genetic material efficiently once inside a host cell, according to an article describing the drug that was published in 2017 in the journal Proceedings of the Japan Academy, Ser. B, Physical and Biological Sciences.

Naturally, the drug seems less effective in patients with severe symptoms. By then secondary infections and over-powerful immune reactions causing inflammation have set in. “We’ve given Avigan to 70 to 80 people, but it doesn’t seem to work that well when the virus has already multiplied,” a source from the Japanese Health Ministry told the Mainichi Shimbun newspaper.

Doctors are using the same drug in Japan to treat coronavirus patients with mild to moderate symptoms. Results from these trials have not been published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal.

Public enemy number one: Crowned Creation against the Crown of Creation

A number of other drugs should, or may work: chloroquine was demonstrated to have strong in vitro and in vivo antiviral activities against coronaviruses (as it should). Chloroquine treated HCoV-OC43, a coronavirus closely related to SARS-CoV, which infects mice (mice seem immune against SARS-Cov2). Moreover, treatment with daily doses of chloroquine has a long-lasting protective effect against lethal coronavirus OC43 infection in newborn mice. (Notice in passing that the research was financially supported by the European Union, a decade ago; private companies were not interested, of course, as quinine has been known to work for centuries…)

Remdesivir, made by Gilead Pharma, should also work, it specifically targets reproduction of such viruses. Lopinavir and ritonavir are also in WHO mandated trials.

To date, there is no officially approved or officially known drug to treat SARS-CoV-2. However, antiviral drugs developed to treat other illnesses are being tested for their use in treating the coronavirus. For instance, Remdesivir was developed to treat Ebola but it has shown promise in treating monkeys infected with another coronavirus, the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS); that drug is currently being tested in China and the U.S.. The company is rushing to build a factory to produce the drug industrially.

A problem with finding out what worked in China is that doctors there have given many drugs at the same time to save patients. Some patients were talking more than 30 pills a day (and lived!) They also used Tamiflu…

One important warning is this (aside from the fact the virus apparently can live for days on surfaces).

WHO, World Health Organization Now Officially Recommends to Avoid Taking Ibuprofen For COVID-19 Symptoms, 17 March 2020
The World Health Organization recommended Tuesday that people suffering COVID-19 symptoms avoid taking ibuprofen, and other NSAID (Non Steroid Anti Inflammatory Drugs) after French officials warned that anti-inflammatory drugs could worsen effects of the virus. Basically, they lower immune defenses…

The warning by French Health Minister Olivier Véran (the doctor who presides over triage, see below) followed a recent study in The Lancet medical journal that hypothesised that an enzyme boosted by anti-inflammatory drugs such as ibuprofen could facilitate and worsen COVID-19 infections. WHO says: “In the meantime, we recommend using rather paracetamol, and do not use ibuprofen as a self-medication. That’s important,”

We need more research. Unlimited funds should be provided for companies and research institutions. According to the latest observations from France and Italy, young patients are also very affected. Moreover, the French health minister Olivier Véran admitted on TV, in a fast and garbled sentence, which he covered with his hand, that young patients were given maximum treatment (extra-corporal oxygenation) not given to older patients (from lack of machines, and, or personnel). Such TRIAGE strategy automatically will make it so that more young patients will survive. Even then many surviving young patients have scarred lungs (the bane of pneumonia). It’s not Nazism, but it’s certainly part of it: eugenism (eu-gene: provides creation to what’s better).

This should cause pause in several ways. Let’s put aside the ethical, eugenics, Nazi style considerations. Another is that this may explain the high death rate of the old, at least in part: if they are not treated, sure they will die. But then statistics will lie by showing the youth to be more resistant. In truth, they are simply treated better...

This is war, the whole economy has to be mobilized, as France and Britain did in 1939, and the USA in 1942. Patents, granted government monopolies, can be suspended to make medications or machines. That the morally upright has to be willing, able and even enthusiastic to make war, is one of the most fundamental principles of humanity:

https://patriceayme.wordpress.com/2014/07/21/war-can-be-good-never-so-political-correctness/

I knew this truth to be eternal, I shuddered to ever see it come alive. But it did. This pandemic should create a better world for survivors, if we learn from it to not be so superficial anymore. It’s just a warning, even though millions may die.

Patrice Ayme

 

No More Lies, Please! (Reevaluation Of All Values V)

March 14, 2020

The Coronavirus pandemic makes it necessary to reevaluate all our values. Some of these values are very subtle. They are not just about stopping valuing wanton splurging on outrageous goods and services, but how we manage our thinking processes, at the highest level. In particular, we need to reevaluate how we manage our concepts of truth and how expressing truths relate to our comfort zone. We have to redefine what we are comfortable with.

We have unhinged the biosphere, and now it’s falling on us, in part because we lost track of what reality is… We lost truth. Truth doesn’t trust us anymore, and we don’t trust truth. Remember: before even the next pandemic, forests will burn, seas will die, etc. It’s time to change ways, because only that change will prevent extremely nefarious evolutions, such as massive sea level rise and lowering of atmospheric oxygen density.

***

Our societies rest all too much on the implicit religion of lies. In truth, lies are greatly there to protect authorities, the establishment, and their enabling software core, the Leader Principle (Führerprinzip, to use German translation… the core principle of Nazism as it was sold to the German people). The Leader Principle is used obsessively at all levels of society. here is the most elementary example:

Teachers were told at the public school of my fifth grader, as they were sent away with a month of homework, that this was, just in case the school “would” close…. When in truth the decision had already been taken. As I explained to my ten year old daughter, this sounds like an innocent lie. But the idea below that practice, and the emotion attached to it, is that, when in doubt, lie. Oh, some will say, just an innocent lie, so that parents can tell the children themselves. 

No, it’s not innocent to teach children that, when a little lie will make life slightly more comfortable, one should engage in it. It’s the exact opposite which should be taught. What should be taught to children: even if a little lie may make life slightly more uncomfortable, one should relish in the little discomfort caused by an abundance of truth, and the beauty of consecrating oneself to truth.  

Lies are complicated, and even little lies change initial conditions, which can drive differential equations awry with wildly divergent outcomes. Even a little lie, like a butterfly flapping its wings, can bring entire civilizations to lose a sense of reality. 

Why do people still admire Obama after the disaster he visited on the healthcare system… while crowing it was his “signature achievement”? Before accusing me to be a Trumpist, please read the New York Times below (or then you can check US life expectancy, and you can check that smart Obama put an end to its inconsiderate rise).

Any plutocracy is a loss of basic reality. Most civilizations ended as plutocracy: Nazism itself was a plutocracy (evil-rule), consecutive from a loss of reality, itself caused by German society taking for truths, sometimes for centuries, atrocious lies (say that nothing could be more pleasing than torturing Jews, an OCD emotion launched by Saint Louis of France, and then Martin Luther). German much-vaunted literacy contributed to this, as much of what the Germans viewed as most significant, in what they were reading, was conducive to holocausts, reinforced by an all too high opinion of themselves.

A subtle example of lying: Obama gave, what this hysterical monkey and his depraved ilk call a “shout out” (he says) to some celebrities for “giving” money.  Obama celebrates celebrities and collective hysteria. In other words, Obama uses cynically COVID 19 to reinforce the established order, in which he has been so much a part of. Lesser forms shout, higher forms, think.

The established order told us, implicitly, for the longest time, with Obama, that celebrities and “sport figures” are more important than funding research (and treatment!) in medicine… Deep cuts in health departments date from Mr. Obama, the sport figure-would be basketball player president. Obama as health departments cutter in chief? Doesn’t that hurt?

Frustration can cause this, Obama’s personal trainer in high school at Punahou told me, a few years ago: “He couldn’t be a good basketball player, his upper body is too weak”. So then Obama was left to salivate about basketball players… And meanwhile, with his grotesque Obamacare, he cut healthcare. Right wingers with Trump Derangement Syndrome will no doubt say I all make it up, and bother us with their strident ignorance, so here is the New York Times, they very voice of unhinged TDS, which I subscribe to by sheer masochism:

The Coronavirus Swamps Local Health Departments, Already Crippled by Cuts

Many state and municipal health departments saw budget and staffing cuts a decade ago that were never restored.

By Julie Bosman and Richard Fausset, March 14, 2020, 5:00 a.m. ET

CHICAGO — A widespread failure in the United States to invest in public health has left local and state health departments struggling to respond to the coronavirus outbreak and ill-prepared to face the swelling crisis ahead.

Many health departments are suffering from budget and staffing cuts that date to the Great Recession and have never been fully restored. Public health departments across the country manage a vast but often invisible portfolio of duties, including educating the public about smoking cessation; fighting opioid addictions; convincing the reluctant to vaccinate their babies; and inspecting restaurants and tattoo parlors.

Now, these bare-bones staffs of medical and administrative workers are trying to answer a sudden rush of demands — taking phone calls from frightened residents, quarantining people who may be infected, and tracing the known contacts and whereabouts of the ill — that accompany a public health crisis few have seen before.

Nationwide, local and state health departments have lost nearly a quarter of their work force since 2008, according to the National Association of County and City Health Officials. As the nation’s local and state public health officials confront a pandemic that has paralyzed much of the world, many of them have made their situation plain: They are heading into a crisis without the resources they need.

“We’ve had to deal with budget cut after budget cut,” said A. Scott Lockard, director of the Kentucky River District Health Department, which serves seven counties in rural eastern Kentucky. “Our staffing level is much less now than what it was previously. People are wearing several different hats and sharing job responsibilities for things that they were not doing before, so we’re already operating at peak efficiency and we have no capacity when something like this happens.””

A “decade ago”! Get it? A decade ago, that’s Obama the Basketball player, not Trump. 

***

Problem With The Leader Principle: Can’t Tell What’s Important

Of course Obama and his ilk behave as if the only important thing is basketball, and other stupid sport spectacles… So most of the stupid population is in agreement having been brainwashed to find basketball, football, and all other balls, including senior prom, most important, as part of their own stupidification program, which they love. 

Here is an extract for the Guardian… a newspaper who banned me, more than ten years ago, and ever since, for being a “Jihadist”, they claimed, “blogging the Quran”… How that jihadism fits with the fatwa from the government of Pakistan for offending Islam is easy: in either case, I offend the powers that be… Be it the plutocrats such as Bill Gates… who injected at least once, 50 million dollars, secretly into The Guardian. By the way, Obamas and Gates roll together in the same through, attributing to each other various goods, services and honors. As long as The Guardian does not publish my comments the pseudo-left shall think the way the plutocracy wants it to think… The idea of the Leader Principle is that the official ideas and emotions, those which reach the public, are compatible with what the leadership has decided reality was (hence the great hatred of the establishment against Trump whose reality about globalization has never fitted what the global plutocracy has decided what reality should be). Here is The Guardian, March 14:

We need more courageous ones like this one. Coronavirus Dr. Ai Fen, director of the emergency at Wuhan Central hospital. Photograph Renwu Handout

Coronavirus: Wuhan doctor speaks out against authorities

Ai Fen says in interview, which censors are trying to erase, how superiors reprimanded her for warning about outbreak

“A doctor in Wuhan has spoken out after seeing several of her colleagues die from the coronavirus, criticising hospital authorities for suppressing early warnings of the outbreak in an interview censors have been trying to erase from the internet.

In an interview with the Chinese magazine, Renwu, or People, Ai Fen, director of the emergency at Wuhan Central hospital, said she was reprimanded after alerting her superiors and colleagues of a Sars-like virus seen in patients in December.

Now that the virus has claimed more than 3,000 lives inside China, including four doctors at her hospital, one of which was the whistleblower ophthalmologist Li Wenliang, Ai has joined other critics risking their jobs, as well as detention, to speak out about conditions in Wuhan: “If I had known what was to happen, I would not have cared about the reprimand. I would have fucking talked about it to whoever, where ever I could,” she said in the interview.

Since Tuesday, Ai’s interview has been posted and quickly deleted from Chinese social media sites. Renwu has removed the article and Ai could not be reached over the phone. Internet users have moved quickly to save the article, posting screenshots of it.”

The article was translated into classical Mandarin, pinyin, Morse Code, mostly emojis, Hebrew… To elude censors…

“On 30 December, after seeing several patients with flu-like symptoms and resistant to usual treatment methods, Ai received the lab results of one case, which contained the word: “Sars coronavirus.” Ai, reading the report several times, says she broke out into a cold sweat.

She circled the words Sars, took a photo and sent it to a former medical school classmate, now a doctor at another hospital in Wuhan. By that evening, the photo had spread throughout medical circles in Wuhan, where it was also shared by Li Wenliang, becoming the first piece of evidence of the outbreak.

That night Ai said she received a message from her hospital saying information about this mysterious disease should not be arbitrarily released in order to avoid causing panic. Two days later, she told the magazine, she was summoned by the head of the hospital’s disciplinary inspection committee and reprimanded for “spreading rumours” and “harming stability”.

The staff were forbidden from passing messages or images related to the virus, she said. All Ai could do was ask her staff to wear protective clothing and masks – even as hospital authorities told them not to. She told her department to wear protective jackets under their doctor coats.

“We watched more and more patients come in as the radius of the spread of infection became larger,” she said, as they began to see patients with no connection to the seafood market, believed to be the source of the first cases.

Meanwhile, Chinese officials were still insisting there was no reason to believe the virus was being passed between people. “I knew there must be human to human transmission,” Ai said.”

A lie at this point in the West is the lethality of the virus. 

As it is, March 14: CLOSED CASES: 80,270, Cases which had a Recovered / Discharge Outcome: 74,451 (93%). Deaths: 5,819 (7%).

By saying the death rate is only 1%, authorities make the assumption that, for the 80,000 closed cases, another 500,000 or so cases happened… which were so mild, that they don’t know about them. Now, 20% of the known cases become serious enough for hospitalization, and 8% become critical… Now, right, further massaging of the data, if half of the critical cases are saved, thanks to intact health systems (that is, not overwhelmed as the Wuhan health care system was for a few weeks)… We go down to a 4% death rate…

And The Guardian to conclude:

“On 21 January, the day after Chinese officials finally confirmed there was human to human transmission of the virus, the number of sick residents coming to the emergency room had already reached 1,523 in a day – three times the normal volume.

In the interview, Ai described moments that she will never forget: an elderly man staring blankly at a doctor giving him the death certificate of his 32-year-old son, or a father who was too sick to get out of the car outside of the hospital. By the time she walked to the car, he had died.”

Our pampered leaders, rendered superhumanly powerful by the Leader Principle, are leading us into an Armageddon of their own making. This crisis, and many like it, and worse to come, could be prevented, but one has to work on their prevention in a timely manner. Research on Coronaviruses was cut down two years after the SARS 1 epidemic, in 2003: there was no profit to be made, whereas there are plenty to make in basketball, and thus why Obama and his ilk obsesses about it. Basketball itself is completely uninteresting, but the lemmings out there have been conditioned, by the dozen of millions to wallop on their couches and cry an ocean when a basketball superstar dies flying his private helicopter in total pea soup, because, as a plutocrat, even fog should make way (killing innocent children in the process).

They call that sports, because it’s watched on TV, I call it mental degeneracy and cardiovascular disease, and a moral outcry to watch it on TV as if it were (much more genuinely interesting) coronavirus. So Obama diverted clout from biomedical research and treatment of all diseases, to basketball and the like (stuff he can understand)… But why did he do that so obsessively? To hide the fact, by diverting attention, that he gave 8,000 billion dollars ($8 trillion) to the financial plutocracy (which had lost that in the crash to the other half of the plutocracy). All right, he is no genius, and may not even understand that this is what he was doing. But that’s what he was doing, and still does. 

Some maybe shocked by my scorched earth philosophy (and why don’t I attack Trump as much? [1]). But the Earth is being scorched for real by our idiotic leaders, and they are not just all Putin. Philosophy in the past sometimes used to look very elevated, when all it was doing was to serve the tyrants. Pretty much all of Stoic philosophy is culprit of this. But not only. Aristotle was worse. Here is this leech of the most poisonous type: “Change in all things is sweet.” — Aristotle, Nicomachean Ethics

Yes, really? Thus SARS 2/COVID 19 is sweet? Aristotle, you can be quite a fool, but you would say anything to justify the tyranny of your very closest friends, the Macedonians tyrants, Alexander, Antipater, Craterus. So, after all, Aristotle, you are not a fool, just the worst snake.

https://patriceayme.wordpress.com/2014/09/28/aristotle-destroyed-democracy/

The present madness of planetary destruction from wanton human ways, has got to stop, COVID 19 is one more symptom. As people are confined at home, sharing for a few, a few days, with a few significant others, a few fundamental human needs, such as love, conversation and food, life that I consider normal, let them meditate that… And forget the non-creative pursuits that their self-interested leaders told them were most worth it.  

Patrice Ayme

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[1] Trump, long a Democrat. has been president just 3.5 years, and didn’t have an easy task, as he faced the full fury of the plutocratically controlled media and establishment. For example, the Intellectual Property (IP) system, completely wrecked by Barack Obama so as to serve Gates and other monopolists who feed, wine, dine and enrich the Obamas since, has not been changed yet. IP was supposed to be addressed, when the Impeachment hoax was taken up… precisely so that IP will keep on serving the monopolists still in power…. By the way, the servants of plutocracy shouldn’t provoke me, I have a half ready essay on this.

Roughly, Obama didn’t do anything good, besides SpaceX (and I was wrong on that one; Elon Musk surprised me; I didn’t remove my highly critical essays on the subject)… And creating giant wildlife reserves (some of which have been inverted by Trump, something I disapprove of strongly…) In the present crisis, Obamacare is coming short. Apparently Trump and Congress are forcing through a number of emergency measures: under Obamacare, being tested for Coronavirus cost up to $5,000. If the Trump-Pelosi Bill is signed into law after the US Senate deigns to look at it, the test should be free… From Democrat impeacher in chief Adam Shifty Schiff himself: “Coronavirus tests at no cost to all who need them. Paid sick leave, expanded food security, enhanced unemployment insurance and more. We’re all in this together.

High time.

What Mishandling Ontology Of The Quantum Tells Us About The Coronavirus Catastrophe

March 10, 2020

Coronavirus and Ontology Of The Quantum: what could they possibly have in common? A failure to think deep and correct:

Many tales about the Quantum, most of them putting the cart before the horse. Same with COVID 19, and other biological problems we face: as I pointed out in a preceding essay, so far the COVID 19 mortality rate is 6% (ignoring cases we don’t know about)… And that rate varies dramatically according to states: for instance, Singapore was able to avoid any death and jugulate the disease, so far. Drastic logical failures are a characteristic of today’s governance… while the freedom to err is part of the learning process, i shouldn’t be part of the governing process. New diseases were predicted, and were seen. There was not enough publicly (hence deep) financed research.

Einstein’s fans want us to believe that we are watching the multiverse, when looking at this diffraction pattern from a single slit, as above. How dumb can one be, and still have a PhD? What I see, observing them, those multiversists, is the arrogance of stupidity of clerks whom the establishment bought. Similar arrogance has been in evidence from the idiotic leadership of the planet; it was obvious major pandemics were around the corner. Research in biology (and attending fields serving biology, such as computer science, mathematics, physics, chemistry) had to be massively boosted.

Errance in governance drove the Coronavirus pandemic: one can’t argue that catastrophic pandemic is a big surprise, there were many spooky and very lethal alerts before that: SARS 1, MERS, Ebola, H1N1, Zika, Influenza A subtype H5N1, etc. One of the Ebola epidemics killed around half of those infected, 11,500 people, dead. H5N1 had an even higher death rate. Each of these preceding epidemic was contained with drastic measures. In the case of Zika, containment nearly failed (France, Brazil were affected). In the case of COVID19, containment completely failed. Israel’s decision to put under two weeks observation any newcomer was the right one. 

Thinking is an art which needs to be improved. Thinking about the Quantum has been a laboratory of thought… and the rats have not exercised well, they have been lazy. Hence a general lack of performance in a situation which demands ever more deep and bold, truth-seeking. 

So out there, axiomatics for the Quantum have been rolled out. Generally they assume what one would want to prove from first principles. So what would be a fundamental axiomatics for the Quantum? That Quantum Processes are described by waves. That was actually De Broglie’s axiom of 1924. The other fundamental axiom is that energy is emitted in lumps (aka quanta), Planck established that one, through a tour de force. The logical consequence is that energy should arrive in lumps (quanta). Einstein got that idea, beautiful and obvious… and got the Nobel for it, because it explained the photoelectric effect. Then Einstein made what I view as a mistake: he deduced Quantum Processes were about lumps flying around (I call this Einstein’s Error, all the parrots have repeated that Error since, without any proof except for the presumably harmonious chorus of all parrots) [1]. 

How do we know this, that Quantum Processes are waves? From the one slit experiment: light passes through one slit expands after the slit, and creates a wavy pattern, characteristic of, well, waves…

Pretty obvious, isn’it?

Copenhagen physicists instead claim Quantum Processes just computes like waves… but are not waves but, instead, are lumps, like Einstein said (no objective proof of either of these two affirmations, which are instead founded, unfortunately for them, on a traditional haughtiness of the elite, the sort of mood an age can be pervaded with).

Similarly, it is pretty obvious that some fashionable mass behaviors akin to collective madness had to be terminated: such as flying all over the world like sardines in cans, just because we could go to an exotic beach for ten days. Or going on giant cruise ships which, when they idle in ports, pollute as much as two million cars. Or all these “businessmen”, or academics being busy flying around the globe to meet and greet, furthering their plots… When much of the activities they claimed to be engaging in could be done at a distance. In cases like that, the argument is made:’Oh, this is private!’ No, it’s not private, it’s tax supported, hence public. When the GAFA act private, it’s to pocket the public subsidies they profit from (watch: GAFA pay no significant tax). “Business” jets make 100% of the CO2 of the US, and, as all other planes, but worse, are massively publicly financed (no tax on jet fuel; usage of public air traffic control; tax deduction of the activity, etc.) 

But mostly what has to cease is under-financing research. Under-financing research, especially in fundamental biology, creates a lost opportunity in improving the human condition, that’s one thing. But the other thing which has developed is that we have altered the biosphere, and so doing, made it hostile to us more than it used to. So fundamental research in all fundamental aspects of all fields where we have altered the status quo, like the viral and bacteriological, or parasitic environment, but also the chemical environment, or the atmospheric or oceanic environment, has to be tremendously boosted… just to maintain the status quo ante… 

Quantum ontology is the logic of existence of the Quantum. The most fundamental, because most obvious, observation of the Quantum is that it makes waves, and waves direct where it tends to appear. By learning to focus on what is the most important, we learn to think.

A completely unrelated example: today Obama was all over the waves, crowing about “Obamacare”. All the Obama fans were probably ecstatic: they have been trained that way. However the fundamentals of Obamacare are clear: US spending on health has augmented relative to GDP, profits of the privates have augmented, and US life expectancy has gone down more years in a row than ever before. All of these were established trends before Trump came to power… and “Obamacare” is still the law of the land. But Obama can talk with that arrogance, because he knows those he addresses have been trained to think tribally, not critically, those his audience cannot focus on the biggest features of the big picture.

The faster we make the flow of history, the more we have to run to just stay where we used to be. And the run is mental. And if we want to run away mentally the right way, we have to learn to think right, and pondering that single slit will help.

Civilizations perish, when they can’t think at the speed of their environment.

Patrice Ayme  

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[1] Technical aside: My Einstein Error is serious. It is not the usual Einstein Error, which is frivolous. Einstein, in a crafty self-serving way, called his “biggest blunder”, something which was neither here nor there. Einstein had invented the Cosmological Constant (CC), to make the universe of local spacetimes described by gravity static (otherwise it would expand or collapse). Then a few years latter, when it was discovered that, for sure, the universe expanded, Einstein called that CC his worst error… Because not having invented CC would have led him to predict expansion (he self-servingly said; instead Lemaitre and Friedman did it…) But actually, this “biggest blunder” is all pretty asinine, as all this was pretty obvious in classical gravitation (which is the first order of the modern, present, gravitation theory, traditionally attributed to Einstein, although many others contributed, from Riemann, to Poincare, Hilbert, and all the inventors of differential geometry…). A classical universe would either expand or collapse, under gravitation, no? (MOND theories, which I don’t believe in would throw the entire Einsteinian gravitation threw the window, of course…)

450 Million Dead Possible? Something To Take Seriously, Right Away.

March 9, 2020

COVID 19 Is A BIG ONE. We are under attack by the worst infectious disease since 1918!

Today I will endorse my hat of panicker-in-chief. I will attract attention on a point not mentioned in the media: the potential global lethality of SARS 2/COVID19. The question of the potential global lethality of the Coronavirus is ignored. We hear whining all over about not endangering economic activity, so France and the US have not gone in panic mode yet (what the French call stage3 epidemic). 

Anyway, here are the scary numbers, as of March 8, 2020:

ACTIVE CASES, Currently Infected Patients: 43,975

37,998 (86%) in Mild Condition

5,977 (14%) Serious or Critical

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CLOSED CASES, Cases which had an outcome: 66,110

62,280 (94%) Recovered / Discharged

3,830 (6%) Deaths

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Another unexpected exponential strikes!

At first sight this seems to indicate a lethality of 6% [1]. However that maybe an overestimate: lethality has been above  5% in Wuhan, in the first three months of the epidemic there, according to Chinese medical authorities. That high rate is due to the effect of surprise and the medical system being overwhelmed: 2,000 medical personnel got infected. In the rest of China, the death rate has been much lower: a number of treatments are tried and perhaps working. Just providing mechanical oxygen saves half of the patient who would otherwise die. China is now able to try to cure patients by giving them antibodies in serum of recovered patients.

Now it’s cold in China in winter, people gather in warm places. So it remains to be seen whether the virus will spread as effectively in tropical areas. If it does, this means that an expected slowdown after cold winter months will not happen.

During the famous Black Plague of 1348 CE, around half of Europe died… But no nobles: armed with cats, civettes, and knowledge about transmission, European nobles kept the plague bacillus, and its vectors, fleas from rats, at bay. The economic impact and the impact of civilization was, weirdly, neglectable, or even positive: salaries went up. technology accelerated.

We have in some ways a similar situation. First, humanity has no immunity against Corona viruses… except for the few who got SARS 1, MERS, Ebola, and now SARS2 and recovered. This is different from the Flu A, B, C, etc… The Flu is always around, and people can keep, partly a life long immunity. Those exposed to the Avian (?) Flu of  1918 (so-called Spanish Flu which seems to have started in Kansas military camps…) kept a life long immunity against Avian Flus, sort of. Enough to prevent a repeat of 1918, when at least twenty million died.

Because nearly nobody has immunity against SARS 2 aka COVID 19, one may reasonably expect, in the worst case, a worldwide infection. That would be a bit more than 400 million dead.

I am not saying that this will happen. I am saying political leaders worldwide should assume that the death of many millions will happen… If they don’t take extreme measures to augment distanciation between individuals… as the People Republic of China succeed to do. But the case of China is special: a very powerful Communist Party and very advanced science and technology.

I have condemned China for having made the situation worse with its closed society, by keeping the infection secret too long. However now that the catastrophe is upon us, China was able to turn the catastrophe around as very few countries could… Singapore was able to. Singapore is an independent Chinese country, saw its first case January 23. Six weeks later it is barely above 100.

Italy, belatedly copied China sort of, with a country-wide ban on unnecessary travel (under the threat of jail). It remains to see if it works. Other most advanced countries have been too slow: France on 8 march banned gathering of more than 1,000 people: France and all of Europe should have followed Switzerland, which did it a week earlier. Clearly all gatherings should be banned, worldwide, except if absolutely necessary.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1994, recommended basically no air travel and “absolutely no cruise ships“… on Fox News, March 8…

Sometimes, panic is the wisest course. This is one of these times. 

With maximum, aggressive distanciation, a few millions will probably die. Without, several dozen millions dead are guaranteed [2].

As far as the biosphere is concerned, humanity was the ultimate disease. SARS 2-COVID 19 is a first counterattack. As far as humanity is concerned, an interesting twist is that the older people (above 80) get affected around 100 times more than those below 40. Hence an occasion for the young to kill the old. This time. Next time may be different. So are we in this this together? A litmus test is in sight[3].

Patrice Ayme

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[1] Lower estimates of lethality have been obtained through the optimistic, yet erroneous computations where the number of death is divided by the total number of cases… Then getting something like 3.5%. Stupid. A smarter approach is to claim that 2/3 of the cases go undetected: that would give a lethality rate of 2%. To get the rate down to 1%, one would have to assume that the Chinese detected only one case out of six…

***

[2] HIV killed 35 millions… But over decades.

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[3] One has to change the economy, fiscally and investment-wise: one needs to shrink the billionaire class and augment the carbon free economy and the science based economy. In 2009, Obama just reflated the plutocracy and its banks, and their monopoly powers, say on Intellectual Property; doing nothing, in other words.. Now the viruses have come to roost: the Coronaviruses. SARS, MERS, Ebola, have been warning for more than 20 years… and precious little was done.

REEVALUATION OF ALL VALUES By Coronavirus

February 28, 2020

Desires, values, practice, ways, ideas and feelings are all entangled. Considering the state of the biosphere… collapsing as it is, a reevaluation is all values is required.

To avoid future, otherwise ineluctable megadeath: please humanity, gain gravitas.

No, COVID19 will not cause ultimate megadeath: the coronavirus is just a warning (following SARS, MERS, and Ebola, all aslo coronaviruses), COVID19 may cause dozens of millions of dead (HIV killed 35 millions, so far…), but that’s not billions. A full collapse of the biosphere and attendant human civilization would kill billions. Now this can all be avoided by changing our present ways… and desires. 

We have long said that what is happening would happen… Much of the world GDP is consumed by useless consumption. Plastic all over, most travel useless. Why are business jets subsidized? They emit 1% of US CO2. What is the best way to learn about Florence? The Florentine Republic? Going there? How do you go back seven centuries? By reading intelligent essays about it? Or going there, stuffed like coughing sardines breathing onto each other.

Unrestricted travel was fashionable: people thought knowing of going to the other side of the world to go to a place one was supposed to feel great to have gone to. It could be a beach, a club, a hotel, a city, a wave, a climb, a marathon: there they went on cheap airfare, “private” yet subsidized by governments.

Big meetings, huge stadiums full of gawking, brainless “supporters”. They should support themselves, not multimillionaire players.

Universitarians, again subsidized by governments, going all around the world, sometimes for just one day, to meet and greet each other… Sometimes even in expensive business class (I was direct witness, more than once).

Alaskan Forest hemlock Sawfly damage: parasites occupy forests which are not genetically adapted to them. All these will burn, contributing to world CO2… NONLINEARLY.

All over, when we talk about the biosphere being in a state of collapse under the assault of humanity, reasonable people have been nodding… and changing nothing about their lives, and, more importantly, knowledge base. 

We have long said that what is happening would happen… Mutation of all sorts of microbes, viruses, bacteria, mushrooms, parasites going faster than humanity, let alone evolution, could react. But not just this. Sea level rise and ice melting predictions depend upon optimistic hypotheses scientists keen to preserve their careers are anxious not to make. If one goes as pessimistic as possible about sub ice shelf melting by warm currents, and if one predicts that methane hydrates will erupt, then one talks about sea level rise many times greater than the most pessimistic official predictions.

Right, healthcare is the basic human right.

But, in particular, this means that a non-collapsing biosphere is a basic human right too. Much of this collapse is caused by the fact that wealth has had too much power. Not just the wealth of highly visible plutocrats like Bezos, the Walmart family, Bloomberg, etc. The main problem is the less visible wealth of trusts, foundations and influences of heirs which induce universities such as Harvard, and countless “foundations”, and “institutes” to teach or preach an erroneous world picture, from the departments of humanities, english, philosophy, history, economics, etc.

The imposition and inducement of an erroneous world picture happens not just in the USA. Places such as Britain, France or the EU are also rotten through and through: consider the Brexit debate, or the very perplexing attitude of the French elite regarding so-called pedophilia (truly raping children, no love there). Of course the rest of the world tends to be even worse of, and it’s no accident the virus came from China… but the fish rots by the head.

And the erroneous world spirit is not just a question of individuals: replacing the so-called “leaders” would not be enough. Beyond incarnated “leaders”, there are leading feelings, moods and ideas. Most of the MENTAL INERTIA which drove Nazism, was fully in force, before Hitler’s grandmother was employed by a wealthy Jew.

COVID 19 is another little warning. It’s still a disaster we can do something about. If Antarctica collapses, or LOW fails[1], that will be another story… Then there will be little we can do… Aside from Armageddon like solutions [2].

Patrice Ayme

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[1] Launch On Warning: automated first strike thermonuclear rocket forces… presently deployed. Please aske “Democrat’ speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi about it, she is a self-described “Catholic”, and she prays for the president everyday (she says).

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[2] So, besides increasing military budgets of the permanent members of the UNSC (who keep the peace)… What can we do? We can, and should, redeploy the economy is a way which promotes the survival of civilization.  So we need more research in what reality was, and is. Thus revisiting history… and not just the face of well-known fascist regimes such as Lenin’s, Stalin’s, Hitler’s, Mussolini’s etc…. But also the real forces behind them. We should also push science and teaching as much as possible.

 

 


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Artificial Turf At French Bilingual School Berkeley

Artificial Turf At French Bilingual School Berkeley

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in truth, only atoms and the void

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GrrrGraphics on WordPress

www.grrrgraphics.com

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because all (Western) philosophy consists of a series of footnotes to Plato

Patrice Ayme's Thoughts

Striving For Ever Better Thinking. Humanism Is Intelligence Unleashed. From Intelligence All Ways, Instincts & Values Flow, Even Happiness. History and Science Teach Us Not Just Humility, But Power, Smarts, And The Ways We Should Embrace. Naturam Primum Cognoscere Rerum

Learning from Dogs

Dogs are animals of integrity. We have much to learn from them.

ianmillerblog

Smile! You’re at the best WordPress.com site ever

Defense Issues

Military and general security

RobertLovesPi.net

Polyhedra, tessellations, and more.

How to Be a Stoic

an evolving guide to practical Stoicism for the 21st century

Donna Swarthout

Writer, Editor, Berliner

coelsblog

Defending Scientism

SoundEagle 🦅ೋღஜஇ

Where The Eagles Fly . . . . Art Science Poetry Music & Ideas

Artificial Turf At French Bilingual School Berkeley

Artificial Turf At French Bilingual School Berkeley

Patterns of Meaning

Exploring the patterns of meaning that shape our world

Sean Carroll

in truth, only atoms and the void

West Hunter

Omnes vulnerant, ultima necat

GrrrGraphics on WordPress

www.grrrgraphics.com

Skulls in the Stars

The intersection of physics, optics, history and pulp fiction

Footnotes to Plato

because all (Western) philosophy consists of a series of footnotes to Plato

Patrice Ayme's Thoughts

Striving For Ever Better Thinking. Humanism Is Intelligence Unleashed. From Intelligence All Ways, Instincts & Values Flow, Even Happiness. History and Science Teach Us Not Just Humility, But Power, Smarts, And The Ways We Should Embrace. Naturam Primum Cognoscere Rerum

Learning from Dogs

Dogs are animals of integrity. We have much to learn from them.

ianmillerblog

Smile! You’re at the best WordPress.com site ever

Defense Issues

Military and general security

RobertLovesPi.net

Polyhedra, tessellations, and more.

How to Be a Stoic

an evolving guide to practical Stoicism for the 21st century

Donna Swarthout

Writer, Editor, Berliner

coelsblog

Defending Scientism