Posts Tagged ‘COVID’

Corochinavirus News: Oil Goes Negative, Countries’ Death Rates All Over The Place…

April 20, 2020

(Boosted a bit April 22 2020). For the first Time Ever the most deflationary shock, ever … Last contract for the month of May, when future becomes real delivery on 4/20/2020: the price of a barrel of oil FELL $55 (fifty-five) dollars today… Becoming -$37… Yes MINUS thirty-seven dollars: they pay you $37 if you take custody of a barrel of oil. UNPRECEDENTED. The poisonous stuff is being produced, but nobody wants it anymore [1]. They pay you to get rid of it… like the pollutant it is. 

How To Explain The Differing Death Rates Among Countries?

Milan, industrial capital of Italy, got infected stealthily, yet massively, thanks to the air bridge from Wuhan, the Corochina virus capital. While China cut all flights from Wuhan and Hubei, the air bridge Wuhan-Milan was not stopped. The virus then got into a pretty old population.

Oil Goes To Hell In A Handbasket, as deserved… Yes these are negative prices…

France, like the rest of Europe, didn’t stop the flights from China. The first cases and deaths were Chinese tourists in France. Also some Brits coming back from Asia, and a mass church of some Christian sect in Mulhouse.

Germany, and other Northern Europeans were infected mostly through a very young population of partying skiers in ski resorts (which were lockdowned too late). So, intrinsically, the population initially hit in Germany was COVID resistant. Germany also tested massively and early, differently from France, Great Britain. Germany is now developing its own antibody test (instead of purchasing dozens from… China, as the US FDA has allowed!)

Germany doesn’t count the nursing homes deaths as well as France does. A running recount by the UK government has shown the number of deaths first announced was 40% what the recount showed. So the death numbers are all over the map. Typically deaths at home are not counted (New York has typically 25 deaths at home a day… recently it has run around 150, six times more…)

In other news, the long term death rate was based on the Diamond Princess… where passengers got first class health care from Japanese hospitals, with maximum care on individual patients. Initially the death rate was reported to be no more than 1%… However two months later what we have from that ship is this: 712 cases, 7 in critical care (ventilation), 13 dead. So we get a morality and morbidity rate close to 3%… 

Otherwise measured, it seems the death care is arguably 21% for those catching the disease. Here are the official numbers 4/20/2020: 815,204 Cases which had an outcome: 645,019 (79%) Recovered / Discharged.

170,185 (21%) DEATHS.

Want more of the same? Countries are massively under-reporting.

As the NYT points out in “28,000 missing deaths: Tracking the true toll of the crisis.

“In the last month, far more people died in these [ELEVEN] countries than in previous years, The New York Times found. The totals include deaths from Covid-19 and those from other causes, potentially including those who could not be treated as hospitals became overwhelmed.

These numbers contradict the notion that many people who have died from the virus might soon have died anyway. In Paris, more than twice the usual number of people have died each day, far more than at the peak of a bad flu season. In New York City, the number is four times the normal amount.”

So what next? Definitely, some individuals relapse, there are well-documented cases all around the world, such unfortunate souls seem to have virus “reservoirs” inside their bodies, and the antibody protection seems far from perfect…. Also the virus attacks the central nervous system in at least a third of the case, and many other organs (and that may cause death directly). It’s known that some viruses can shelter in place inside the central nervous system. Also, in the case of rabies, the immune system counterattack (cytokine storm) ravages the brain… And the same exact mechanism seems at work in some cases of COVID…

Some, many countries have either too much incompetence to count the death properly (say Ecuador), or are outright lying (China). How do we know China’s dictatorship lied? Simple: some cities like Chengdu (capital of Sichuan) were locked down completely, when they had literally 3 cases. All of Hubei was lockdowned, when there were less than 500 cases, worldwide, officially, and 17 deaths… So obviously the Chinese government knew something we didn’t.  

Now this virus has provided us with a demonstration why humanity is not compatible with dictatorship. So China should be encouraged, looking forward, to switch to democracy by being submitted to increasing economic diversification away from itself. For its own good. Like Apartheid South Africa. Apartheid in South Africa killed and oppressed South Africans, but didn’t threaten to kill dozens of millions of people of the world… as Xi’s dictatorship just did.

Patrice Ayme 

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[1] The world has an estimated storage capacity for 6.8 billion barrels, and nearly 60 percent is filled. (That roughly means than the US production would fill it up in around 4 months…) World oil production needs to go down 30% to balance world demand.

Some of the oil glut is evident in Cushing, Okla., a critical storage hub where the oil that trades on the U.S. futures market is delivered. With a capacity to hold 80 million barrels of oil, Cushing has only 21 million barrels of free storage left, or less than two days of American production. As recently as February, Cushing was not even up to 50 percent. Experts say it will be filled to the brim in May.

Monday 20 April, Trump said the government was “looking to put as much as 75 million barrels” into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which is used as a buffer during crises (it was created after the 1973-1974 oil embargo). He added he will go ask Congress about it… Some democrats said they will introduce legislation for the cost of putting the oil in the reserve… (At most half a million barrels a day can get in…)

But it gets better than that.

Shutting down oil wells and then restarting them when demand returns requires expensive manpower and equipment. Fields do not always recover their former production (production is a dynamic process, is oil is often actively pushed…). In addition, some oil companies have to keep pumping, even if they are losing money, in order to pay interest on their debts and keep on functioning (oil workers are fickle).

In late 2019, the US produced 13.3 million barrels of oil a day.

 

 

Antarctica Denman Glacier Quickly Undermined By Warm Water

April 6, 2020

The virus catastrophe was predictable and predicted, and so is the sea level catastrophe, presently unfolding, albeit in slow motion. The virus is virulently ongoing, and, in an healthy reaction, research in biology is ramping up. But research should be ramping up all over. Indeed, the sea is rising, and that, too, is a great catastrophe. It’s also a nonlinear catastrophe, like the virus: first slow, then exponential, because the speed of the effect is proportional to its extent. The poster child of East Antarctica melting down is the narrow outlet of the giant Aurora basin known as the Totten Glacier. Now it has a rival, the Denman Glacier. Warm water is going below the glacier into a previously unknown 1800 meters deep, 5 kilometers wide through.

Denman Glacier is a glacier 13 to 19 kilometers wide, descending north some 130 kilometers, debouching into the Shackleton Ice Shelf east of David Island, Queen Mary Land, East Antarctica. 

The Denman Canyon is immensely deep, the world’s deepest hole. As warm, 4 degree Centigrade water is the densest type of water, this relatively warm water is slipping below the glacier, melting it from below, and this situation is happening all around Antarctica and Greenland…The canyon under Denman Glacier was found by BedMachine Antarctica project (under the leadership of the University of California, Irvine) to be the deepest canyon worldwide. The bedrock being is 3,500 m below sea level: it’s twice deeper than the Grand Canyon. And soon it will be all water.

Problem: more than 4,000 meters of ice is piled up there, above that bedrock 3,500 meters below sea level. Thus, should Delman melt, much water would be added to the oceans. How much? 1.5 meters. Enough to flood all coastal cities, worldwide.A 2020 study reported Denman Glacier retreated 5.4±0.3 km over a 20 year period from 1996 to 2017–2018. So far, so good. However, the bedrock falls away quickly at that point. Hence the glacier will undergo a rapid, irreversible retreat, due to the presence of a retrograde bed on the western flank of the glacier and the likely presence of warm water in the sub-ice-shelf cavity.

Progression of warm water under East Antarctica Denman Glacier until 2018. The grounding line retreated 5.4 kms over 20 years. Water should now fall down another 700 meters pretty quickly. At some point, icequakes will shatter the whole undermined thing.

I have described the situation with the outlet of the giant Aurora Basin, the long and narrow Totten Glacier, a 300 kilometer long, 30 kilometer wide channel, below which warm water was found to have progressed much more than expected. At this point the ice-full canyon is mostly cut off from the sea thanks to all the glacial ice piled inside and atop the deep ravine. However, as the glacier’s edge continues to retreat farther and farther down the slope, warm ocean water will pour into the canyon, undermining bigger and bigger sections of the glacier, which will break off in spectacular icequakes.

The narrowness of the channel along which it is occurring and how much warm water from the deep ocean can be moved through it will control the evolution of the situation. Other outlet glaciers of East Antarctica are in a similar situation: glaciers at Vincennes Bay, Porpoise Bay, and the George V Coast. It is difficult to know their fate without the collection of more data.

Considering the present greenhouse situation, we should have a Miocene situation in Antarctica: much of it melted, or underwater. Because much of Antarctica is below sea level, crushed by kilometers of ice.

Trump said an infrastructure bill should go through, even if it’s not green… He is right, considering the virus situation… And, in any case, considering the improvement of technology, any technological development now is more green than what was done before. Plus, the fact is, the climate crisis will be solved by more technology… And only by that. Just like the virus. And for the same reasons as the virus.

Patrice Ayme

 

COVID: Enough With Middle Age Treatments

April 2, 2020

It is a sad commentary on the degeneracy of reason in Europe and its colonies that we had to return to the same method as for the Black Plague in 1347 CE to cure an epidemic… Seven centuries later. Resorting to quarantines to fight epidemics should be restricted to picturesque history. We knew enough biology to find a direct way to cure COVID19/SARS-CoV2… if we had deployed it in a timely manner.

Right, much of the violence and death toll of the epidemic has to do with China cheating, preventing the world to know about the severity of the epidemic in a timely manner… China whose derelict, irresponsible, hare brained authorities even claimed, at the highest level, in mid-January, that the virus was not transmissible, human to human… When they knew better. When high authorities lie, and human beings die en mass as a result, it’s known as a crime against Humanity.

The more general problem: pandemics, or would-be new pandemics have struck many times in the last twenty years, and it was just a matter of time before a catastrophe would happen. A change of mentality was needed, taking fundamental biology more seriously, while anthropocene ECOLOGICAL CHANGE was wrecking the biosphere. Change of mentality had to include fighting disease in a modern way, not just with “quarantines” (40 days) or “quatorzaines” (14 days)… As professor Didier Raoult pointed out, a “cure” means lowering viral loads… enough to leave time to the immune system to strongly react (but not by burning the house in a “cytokine storm“, as tends to happen in the gravest cases).

Here is the real death rate: twenty percent!

Cases which had an outcome:
211,879 (80%) Recovered / Discharged

DEATHS TWENTY PERCENT: 52,855 (20%)

Consider this below:
Coronavirus attacking cells. Chloroquine, for example, and a related compound hydroxychloroquine, modify characteristics of compartments in the host’s cell membranes to make it more difficult for the virus to enter.

The macrolide antibiotic Azithromycin blocks viral reproduction and also has a calming effect on the immune system. Famous MD Raoult, who, prior to 2020 had prescribed hydroxychloroquine more than 4,000 times (!) is using it in combination with azithromycin. It is the combination which is most effective, PhD Raoult showed. Instead of looking at how good patients seem to be doing, Raoult looks at viral loads, measured directly. That’s much more scientific. Raoult is a very serious scientist: he discovered the MIMI giant virus, perhaps a new form of life, 69 species of bacteria, some named after him, and elucidated the cause of several well-known diseases.

There is a second Raoult study, on 80 patients, out two days ago, using Raoult’s combination of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin. It was found that the viral load, objectively measured, disappears in ten days. Here the control measure is that large Chinese studies showed that, for patients who recovered, it took a median twenty days for their viral load, objectively measured, to disappear. The first Raoult study of 24 patients had two large control groups. By the way, there are other existing drugs which are known to have antiviral effects (including against ebola and the flu). In particular, statins, especially simvastatin. The statins interfere with the fat metabolism. SARS-CoV2 is made with two lipid layers. If it can’t make them, it can’t reproduce.

This pandemic definitively is a call to get out of the Middle Ages. That means install a mentality promoting progress, and progress has to be real: progress in how to think better (no more TDS, please!), progress in science and technology (not just green, but also biological, basic physics, material science and nuclear).

The old record of unemployment in the USA was 695,000, decades ago. Last week, it was 3.3 million, something like 5 times more. Today, six millions. The employment seems to have jumped from 3.5% to 9.6%… in two weeks.

We don’t get back to normal here. It will not happen, we will not forget, we get back to a new normal.” … said New York governor Cuomo today. Right. All the childish stuff has to get out of the window… like “Sanctuary Cities”… Or thinking that there is no superior civilization. Yes. All the degenerate pseudo-intellectuals out there, learn this, if you can learn: if a civilization is not superior enough, it dies… So the notions of superior and inferior civilization exist, whatever all too many pseudo-intellectuals tried to claim in the last 70 years….

Our insane economy of the fast, futile and furious engineered a deadly virus. We need a survival economy. Not just just because of what this virus brought. But also because of what we, humanity, are doing to the biosphere (and this virus is just one consequence)… We played apprentice sorcerers, unwittingly preparing even greater problems, imminently. It’s time to get way smarter, and master the sorcery.

This crisis was brought not just by the Chinese dictatorship, and by the lack of enough research in the fundamentals in biology. It was brought by an idiotic economy, too active in non essentials, serving an all-too brainless society. 

Time to brain-up! 

Patrice Ayme

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P/S The San Francisco Bay Area just banned reusable bags: the green economy takes a backstage to the survival economy, as it should.

To Stop COVID, Only One Way: Find & Tell All, Who Is COVID. And Their Contacts, Then Lock Them Up

March 27, 2020

Confinement will not stop the epidemic. It will just slow it down, it will go from a mad rush, to an irresistible jog, aggravated by the slow-down of semi-essential parts of the economy (like electric cars, which foster better lungs).

Yes find out all these COVIDs or at least, where they are located and whether they come around, and then confine them pitilessly. This is how smart countries do it. Stupid countries die, or enter a depression, etc. When facing death, forgetting freedom is wise. 

CLOSED CASES: A SIXTEEN PERCENT DEATH RATE!

148,471 Cases which had an outcome (March 26):

124,378 (84%) Recovered / Discharged

24,093 (16%) DEATHS

Yes, sixteen percent deaths among the official COVIDs. Those COVIDs make our lives difficult, threatening us, even, and especially, post mortem. Let’s reciprocate. 

After seeing the number of cases relentlessly climb, and stupid countries such as France, Italy, Spain, the USA, and the UK get hopelessly confused about what to do, although it was obvious, I sent this to the US President (he was awake, and tweeting as a happy birdie at 2 am!)

@realDonaldTrump Want to stop the pandemic? Only one way: find, and tell, where all the COVIDS, and their contacts, are. Then confine them pitilessly. This is how smart countries do it. Stupid countries die, or enter a depression, or both, etc. When facing death, forgetting freedom is wise.

When facing a furious lion, and, a fortiori a new virus, one does not invoke human rights. That was tried with Hitler, didn’t work. One fights totally, and that means no holds barred.

Everybody should be tested, and the information should get in one’s Smartphone (cheap smart phones should be distributed to some or then simple systems involving bracelets could be used, as in China). One should be able to tell, one one’s phone, if a COVID passed by, or is behind the counter. 

Some say: Oh, but we are the free, we can’t be ordered around! Yes, but you can be dead. Also, actually you think you are free, but actually a plutocracy is leading you by the nose. Right, your (pseudo-) “Democracy” is not as coercitive as in China, BUT it is less performing.

How do I know this? Well look at the pandemic. The leading Western countries are literally dying, or at least their economies are. The People Republic of China, and several other Chinese polities (Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore), and also Korea and Japan, are doing much better.

More than half a dozen Asian nations have the epidemic under control… But the West doesn’t… and it is a mental problem!

Why? The intellectual leadership of the world has gone back east. It happened before: as Rome got bogged down in plutocracy, it opted for the fascist god… while China chose a mandate of Heavens resting on a solid Mandarin class of scholars [1]. Many centuries later, the situation would slowly invert: the Franks outlawed slavery, becoming more democratic, while the Central State (China) engaged in large scale strife, and the elite became detached from We The People. As a result China stagnated in many ways, and then was invaded and occupied durably twice (by the Jurchen first and then Mongols).

We know very little about this virus: can one have it twice? (Some cases say yes.) The pandemic could develop very adversely. China is restarting its economy, but is nervous about restarting the virus too. 

Protecting medical anonymity has no value when all, and the economy, could die. A lawyer told me the US president could lift at will medical anonymity (I will know more later) 

Interestingly, Germany has been testing much more. That enabled the country to catch the cases earlier and manage them better: Germany has 50% more cases than France… but while Germany suffers 267 dead, France has 1696: the French hospital system is getting overwhelmed. Moreover, under the idiotic guidance of its monarch (who insisted to hold an election in the midst of the epidemy), France, like Britain, guided by (criminal) idiots opted, during a few weeks, for “herd immunity”… Something applying to diseases our bodies are evolutionary selected to know, like the flu, and for which we have often some sort of immunity… In truth France and Britain could not test enough (some say because they depended upon China too much, although the basic tech is PCR invented by a Californian surfer…), so they said testing was not wise. 

What’s not wise is for entire gigantic countries to be guided by a few idiots instead of being enlightened by an intelligent public debate among the most superior minds.

Absence of this debate, guidance by idiots, is how & why we got in COVID that bad.

COVID: the livid proof of the West’s increasing mental retardation.  

If, facing death, you cling to freedom, as to a talisman, you will get neither. That was the problem of the Jews facing Hitler. They had to choose sacrifice, too many prefered to cling to the talisman.

Patrice Ayme

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[1]: Mandarin was meant to mean “thinking counselor“, when the Portuguese met the Chinese. For the Chine they were just “kwan”, public servants… So the Portuguese viewed Chinese public servants as pretty deep…

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P/S: Fate punished British Prime Minister Boris Johnson for his hare brained, ill-informed attempted “herd Immunity” strategy which he imposed upon the UK for a few weeks: he has COVID, fever, cough. Same for his health secretary. Germany has found 2/3 of COVIDs lose taste and smell first. Red eyes frequent too.