Posts Tagged ‘Low Carbon Energy’

Energy Crisis: Unleash 4th Generation Nuclear

October 16, 2021

Democratic opposition in the Senate to Biden’s hare brained energy plan, led by Democratic Senator Manchin who ridiculed Senator Sanders’ pleas to West Virginians to please head to the poor houses, and disaffected mines in which he intent them to live the rest of their miserable existences… So Biden would drop “clean” energy generation all together. In other words, Biden will drop the only thing that make a difference for the climate calamity. It’s not that there just no money for it. The very nature of the idea should be called into question. China right now builds one coal plant a week to make US solar panels. Also China produces most of the world’s lithium. China, having learned its lesson from Europe well is on a no-holds barred technological development path. It also helps much of the needed materials are from the largest cavalcade of austere and barren mountain ranges, most appropriately located among old opponents and occasional tormenters of the Han…. When Trump allowed a Native American approved lithium mine in Nevada, WASP ecologists suffered nervous fits: they don’t mind destroying China, the Congo, or Bolivia but they want to keep home pristine.

So Biden can’t finance clean energy. As it is, US citizens emit 18 tons of CO2 per capita per year… More than twice the European average… which includes Merkel’s increasing dirty Germany… with ten tons of CO2 per capita. The world’s average, per capita is 5 tons… which is also the French output. France achieves this with the biggest nuclear generation, per capita.  

Safely unleashing nuclear regulations is the way out for the USA and the world: it would cost nothing. Nuclear mitigation is our best choice. We are 1.1 to 1.3 C above the 1850 baseline. We will blow past 1.5C within a few years. The CO2 equivalent of ALL man-made greenhouse gases (NOx, CH4, etc.) is above 600ppm… not just the 420 ppm of CO2 we will hit in 2022.

We are on track for +7C by 2100.

The anti-nuclear ecologists behave exactly as if they were paid by the fossil fuel industry. Their uneducated anger and irrational phobia against nuclear power is equivalent to an advocacy of keeping the fossil fuel industry as a baseload.

It would take 750 years to bring down CO2 emissions to zero, using hydro, wind and solar. It can’t be done: we don’t have enough copper, semi-precious metals and rare earths to go all-electric with them alone. This way is too slow and the economics of carbon pricing are not necessarily positive… Indeed it costs a huge amount of energy and human life to sustain the pristine life style celebrity ecologists have achieved… And which we cannot all achieved.

Not being a celebrity ecologist or a corrupt politician, I live not far from a fossil fuel plant, a giant refinery. My car uses its products. It’s a state of the art gasoline car, it can go more than 750 miles on one tank of oil (1,200 kilometers). Its CO2 emissions is as low as it gets, including electric cars (which use fossil fuels sneakily). Would I want this dangerously polluting refinery to be replaced by a few state of the art safe fourth generation nuclear reactors? Yes. There is another refinery up the freeway. Together, the refineries had three uncontrolled raging fire infernos over the years, and to remind us of their potential for rage and destruction, they continually burn gas in ten meter long flames… A few miles away, there is often wind. Thousands of windmills were built, and then all taken down at Altamont Pass and in the Delta. 23 turbines can produce 57.5 megawatts of electricity per hour… when the wind blows, which is at most twenty percent of the day… However, the Golden Gate director of the Audubon Society (the major bird protecting society in the world) Glen Phillips says: “If we continue killing eagles at the rates that we have been … there will be no golden eagles left in 50 years or so. Wind energy is important, but there are lots of other places to develop it.

So the “ecological” plan here is to exchange here a major alpha species, the Golden Eagle, for an energy production which is 1% of that of an average nuclear reactor? And some comical characters call that ecological? Auschwitz style elimination for Golden Eagles is ecological? No wonder the Nazis were very ecological… Some of it out of sincerity, some of it out of contempt for the weak, and the non-“Teutonic”, some of it as cover-up, some of it out of fear for the new world, some of it out of hatred for the human race… Several of these psychological traits are found in all too many of today’s self-described half mentally retarded celebrity ecologists…

Just as with most Nazis, most self-proclaimed ecologists seem ignorant of basic physics.

Anti-nuclear activists get furious about nuclear melt-downs. There have been 4 in the West, including three at Fukushima and one at Three Mile Island, in the USA, which produced only radioactive water inside the containment building… At Fukushima incredibly primitive 2nd generation, weapon oriented enormous nuclear reactors, designed to melt-down, and astoundingly badly managed, installed deliberately in the way of a giant tsunami which had already happened 12 centuries before, and without the mandatory backup electric emergency supplies… unsurprisingly melted down after being hit by a wave taller than them. Three of those reactors melted down, and they exploded spectacularly. Nobody died. And the beach was open, a decade later. Compare with fossil fuel installations, such as refineries, which kill many in their surroundings, year after year… Leaving the vegetation covered with soot up to many miles away…

So yes, I would prefer nuclear in the neighborhood… Melt-down potential can be completely avoided with a plant designed to prevent it. Indeed, fourth generation reactors can be made which will never melt down. From the physics. Also much greater efficiency than second generation reactors enables to radioactively exhaust the radioactive “waste”, and transform it into energy. 

It is certainly a mass extinction. Going the wrong way by trying to solve the crisis with hydro, wind and solar will bring war, because when the cataclysm is fully on, nations will fight for resources. Millions are already displaced by the climate emergency. Civilization will not be wiped out, but wars killing billions could easily happen as basic necessities supply routes get cut off. 4th generation nuclear power would enable us to make electricity, hydrogen and desalinate…actually Saudi Arabia is pursuing such a development… This is the sane thing to do. Argentina relaunched its nuclear program and is building a small energy producing reactor not far from Buenos Aires. To keep the air good, indeed, nuclear.

The Biden White House was reduced to beg OPEC+, the world organization of petroleum exporting countries to increase production: “While OPEC+ recently agreed to production increases, these increases will not fully offset previous production cuts that OPEC+ imposed during the pandemic until well into 2022. At a critical moment in the global recovery, this is simply not enough.” PEC+ laughed. Putin added he would try to help Europe, if it really asked politely. “We are not using any weapons. Even during the hardest parts of the Cold War Russia regularly has fulfilled its contractual obligations and supplies gas to Europe.” Putin called such accusations “politically motivated blather” and there was “nothing to support the idea that we use energy as a kind of weapon.” On the contrary, he said, Russia was “expanding its supplies to Europe.” Next Biden went to beg US frackers to please increase output. The inertia here is six months, because it takes time to deploy the tech.

Meanwhile California has ambitious plan to shut down roughly 25% of its energy production, planning apparently to replace it by… blackouts?

The real solution to all this mess is to go on with fossil fuels while introducing a carbon tax, and a hefty one, to force efficiencies. Poor people could get direct check to compensate. Meanwhile giant governmental research programs both on distant energy (thermonuclear, ten times better batteries) and imminently deployable energy (Thorium, 4th generation nuclear and hydrogen) should be financed. Wind and solar should be deployed… accompanied with storage…

Patrice Ayme

Franco-CHINESE POWER: Power for more than three million homes from two nuclear reactors… Taishan 1 and 2 are the first two reactors based on the French EPR design. They form part of an EUR8.0 billion (US$ 10 billion) contract signed by Areva and CGN in November 2007. The Taishan project – 140 kilometres west of Hong Kong, 80 kilometers west of Macau and next to a one million inhabitant city – is owned by TNPJVC, a joint venture between CGN (51%), French utility EDF (30%) and the Chinese utility Guangdong Energy Group (19%). Unit 1 of the power plant started construction in 2009, followed by unit 2 in 2010. The 1750-megawatt EPRs entered commercial operation in December 2018 and September 2019, respectively. The EPR design in Taishan above was developed by Framatome. Although it is a French design, built by French engineering, it was build much faster than the EPRs in Europe… which are still NOT operating… being full of construction defaults, like poor welding.

So the question is why is European manufacturing so poor nowadays? The answer is lack of practice. The Chinese have been building one major power plant a week (generally coal, but ready to switch to Thorium). Europe, meanwhile, has been deindustrializing, overdoing the “energy transition” switch… With poorly reasoned alternatives…

To solve the climate calamity one has to do what China is doing, which is the exact opposite of what Europe has been doing: one has to RE-INDUSTRIALIZE. And with more power than ever, because there are eight billion people out there, not just 80 million Germans…

Why The “Greens” Have Been Fake, So Far. In One Graph

October 5, 2021

The youngest member of the German Parliament is 23. A “Green”. She is studying in college to become the under-assistant of some theater for children (Jungen Schauspielhaus Hamburg Haus-Regieassistentin). Could she understand the graph below? Probably not. This is the most important graph, it shows our “green” policies in the last 50 years have been erroneous, a fraud and… masquerade. Yes, masquerade. What do the plutocrats who own our world intend to achieve by giving powers to the ignorant? Just the same as they would giving nominal powers to babies.

Yes, we went from 6% LOW CARBON PRIMARY ENERGY PRODUCTION, to 16%, WORLDWIDE, in 50 years..

Strange world… The first rise is attributable to the ramp-up in nuclear and major dams. Now, it turns out that major dams present serious ecological problems, even when used as batteries (filling them up at night with base energy, that is, nuclear energy). In any case, dams are limited… Although one could build elevated artificial lagoons next to off shore wind farms.

So we are going to be led by someone who is just a young comedian. Who else could be better qualified for kabuki style politics we presently enjoy? Maybe my dog should be candidate to leadership. The very idea of having a few leading others without us being able to show to them how stupid and ill-informed they are, is corrupt. But that corruption is precisely their motivation. One may as well reproach vultures to be into decaying corpses. Before I dig further into the corruption of the world leadership and its little aspirant dictators, let me roll out the graph: I had been incapable of finding it in a timely manner for the major essay, ANTI-NUCLEAR ECOLOGY IS FAKE Ecology.

Reason why I could not find that graph, although I knew it existed? Such a graph is deliberately buried under a morass of irrelevant and misleading graphs… A plot, or simply a public so conditioned to ask the wrong and insignificant questions, that what is most significant gets most buried? Probably both… There are companies the business of which is to move around the ranking of search results, in either directions…

Today I saw an idiotic young woman running in 90 degree heat, with a gator on her face, a sort of scarf demonstrated to transmit COVID five times more than no mask… Miles from roads, and there was nobody around, aside from me, also for miles. I will not point out that she was a blonde, probably with “Black Lives Matter” on her multi-million dollars lawn… That blonde is probably studying nothing… That qualifies her for Congress. But even medical doctors are affected by the nonsense: the US has by far the highest COVID death toll, propelled by so-called “experts”, some of whom likely financed the “Gain Of Function” at the Wuhan lab, because Obama had decreed they could not do in the good old USA… And still they pontificate, more mighty than ever [1]. 

This is not the first time that a so-called and self-described “left” or “progressives” go maniacally insane: contemplate Mussolini’s “socialists”, Hitler’s “national-socialists”, Stalin’s “Communists”… Or closer to us McCarthyism… which did not pretend to be left, right, but pretended to save the US way of life, when, actually, it was doing the opposite…

Fleeing from reality, common sense, but fighting COVID 24/7, miles from the closest human… With a gigantic scarf/mask hanging all over her face and chest…

No humans around? Let’s wear a mask!

Speaking of kabuki, the relatively new Japanese Premier observed that he had not been as competent as it should have been fighting COVID, in the last few months. Admitting his failure, he resigned. It would be nice to see the same in the rest of the West… And the so-called “experts” in command of various institutions should be the first, and other government than France should criminally prosecute their health ministers for completely erroneous orders, causing mass deaths…

Patrice Ayme

***

[1] It is amazing that the country with the worst COVID was the same which financed, and mostly elaborated the vaccines… However, on second look, the very fact that NIH financed GOF at Wuhan Virology Institute fits in that scheme: risk taking (plus a zest of greed). Trump, who financed no less than 20 vaccines worldwide (while France or Germany or Italy or Spain, or Japan, financed none, strictly NO vaccine, at least none coming in a timely manner…) is a notorious risk taker. And BioNTech (a couple of Germans of Turkish origin), Astra Zeneca led by a Frenchman, financed by Johnson and Trump, leveraged research at Oxford from women biologists… And Moderna, led by another Frenchman... Looks like the French have to flee…

Of course Russia and China also produced effective vaccines in a timely manner… Indicating they know also how to take smart risks… Trump used to ask whether Biden was sleeping… Don’t know about Biden, but clearly, Europe is sleeping.

Meanwhile China has started the construction of a small nuclear reactor, a type that passively stop if anything goes wrong: Europe threatened to develop these, more than 30 years ago already, but never did: too many fake ecologists crawling around. The new small nuclear reactor will power more than half a million homes on the island of Hainan. Maybe Europe could buy some? Also the Italian space agency, confronted with the failure of the Italian-European Arianespace launcher Vega C, has scrambled and the always helpful SpaceX offered them an immediate launch for their latest bus sized satellite: falling asleep has consequences…

The second COSMO SkyMed Second Generation satellite (CSG-2) was planned to be launched with VEGA-C within 2021, but the launcher development has been impacted by the VV15 and VV17 failures and, above all, by the COVID pandemic. … it was not possible to have a European backup solution compliant with the CSG-2 schedule, thus an alternative solution with the US provider SPACE X has been adopted allowing to keep the CSG-2 launch within the current year.”

Italian Space Agency (ASI) – September 2021

And for those who wonder what this has to do with the initial subject: the strategy of developing “renewables” instead of nuclear, or both… Is a European strategy, and it is sleeping at the wheel while the biosphere is crashing…. Biden seems determined to adopt it… which makes sense as the US is the number one fossil fuel producer in the world, and that anti-nuclear, pro-renewable strategy is a fake-out. When renewables will have triumphed at not having that much of an impact, the US will be delighted to roll out their nuclear arsenal for the European nightmare…

ANTI-NUCLEAR ECOLOGY IS FAKE Ecology

October 2, 2021

6% IN 1974 TO 16% IN 2021 FOR THE PERCENTAGE OF ENERGY PRODUCTION FROM LOW CARBON SOURCES (including nuclear)

WE WILL NOT SAVE THE WORLD THAT WAY!

Most of the noisiest ecology is a lie sneakily fed by the fossil fuel industry. What else?

Worldwide, gas production is at its maximum. World oil production is at its maximum. World coal production is plateauing close to its maximum. This is the “renewable” ecology as we have it, after half a century of hilarious denial by corrupt fools pretending to be ecologically minded… When all they want is to haunt the halls of power, as profiteers in rags, kicking around nuclear energy, as their fossil fuel fellow travelers want them to do. We may as well laugh at it!

Yes, we have augmented the low carbon (renewable plus nuclear) percentage of energy production by ONLY ten percent in half a century: at this rate, it will take another 500 years to produce all energy from renewable sources. We don’t have 50 years. We actually have no years: over enormous zones of the planet, the ecology is dying, when not outright burning away.

Even assuming that all energy production is from low carbon sources, 500 years in the future, the CO2 density in the atmosphere will keep on rising, because energy production is only 72% of total CO2 production. Agriculture is at 11%, deforestation at 6%, metal and cement production and other industrial processes at 6%, waste, etc.

Now of course once there is enough CO2 in the atmosphere, it hangs around, for a long time: between 300 to 1,000 years”, says NASA.  During that time, temperatures will keep on rising. Moreover, rising temperatures may launch massive release of greenhouses gases from the melting permafrost and increased rotting from all the warm rains which should come as the whole planet turns into a hot wet jungle…

To stop the temperature rise one will have to extract CO2 from the atmosphere, and go back down to 300 ppm before too much irreversible damage occurs: that will require huge amounts of energy, thus another energy source than fossil fuels….

Dominant ecological thinking in the last 40 years has been lying, stupid, and corrupt: its main axis has been anti-nuclear. And what did they want to replace nuclear by? Mostly Middle Age energy: wind and water.

And yet a miracle happened, through no fault of Middle Ages obsessed ecologists: solar photovoltaic. Yet it is still a fractionally baked miracle: 22% efficiency, needs the sun, and no storage… 

The result has been the greatest ecological crisis in 66 million years. One can accuse the financial-oil industrial complex, but that’s like accusing a lion to behave like a lion. That’s pointless, as long as the lion is next to you all day, and all night long… And you need the beast to do anything.

Ecological mobs got excited about stupid simplistic identities such as Hiroshima = Nuclear. Yes, right, and Hiroshima, plus Nagasaki ended the Second World War, which was killing at least 10,000 civilians each day, within a week. So?

Then politicians claiming to be strident ecologists accessed to some modicum of power, screaming against nuclear while jetting around the planet. Like Hannibal in Capua, they enjoyed the fruits of their victory, by sinking in an orgy of hedonistic greed and grab. This is why the world ecological strategy has been wrong since 1980.

What was decided then by self-described progressive in ecological matters has been to shot down the nuclear option. Instead it should have been embraced, yet criticized and educated. Not all nuclear options are equivalent, and the best have been left undeveloped… especially Thorium, which has much less drawback than Uranium 235 based nuclear… or then nuclear alternatives were inadequately financed, especially fusion.  So we were left with a version of the nuclear industry which was basically built to make Plutonium, that is… nuclear bombs. Worse: even in that nuclear version, inadequate governmental support prevented it from being as efficient as it could be. And appropriately modernized.  

A theoretician of conspiracies, especially those alive and well lurking in the shadows, would tell you that this is too many coincidences in striking incompetence: a deliberate plot is probably in the work. 

Around 1970, nuclear energy seemed poised to replace fossil fuels for electric generation. That did not happen.

As usual in conspiracy theory, one should suspect that those who profited from the crime are the main suspects.

In this case, who profited from the non-development of the nuclear options? …The fossil fuel industry.

Crime, which crime would bellow our friends, the cognitively challenged ecologists…. Is not having developed nuclear energy a crime, would they indignantly cry? Surely nobody died. Uninformed ecologists don’t even read the newspapers… Too busy probably doing Facebook among their circles of the frantically ignorant. 

Well, fossil fuels kill millions of people a year, worldwide, probably very much in excess of ten millions (10 millions is around the number suggest by the WHO).

The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) a United States-based 501(c)(3) non-profit international environmental advocacy group says in 2021: Fossil Fuel Air Pollution Kills One in Five People.
The global toll of premature deaths attributed to the burning of coal, gasoline, and diesel is breathtakingly high, with new research doubling previous estimates.

Let’s now look at the sort of graph the propaganda fossil fuel industry, craftily disguised as fanatically obsessive anti-nuclear ecologists, is keen for the public not to appreciate… Because if the public knew and pondered this graph, the public would feel something strong has to be done, a four dimensional effort: solar-green hydrogen, new fission, Thorium, fusion. China, by the way is making huge efforts in all four (I rarely congratulate Xi and Al…. But this is very important…)

WE ARE (NEARLY) ALL FOSSIL FUELS, MORE THAN EVER: 

The renewables are hard to see in this graph: they are basically neglectable. There is no way our corrupt leaders are not so stupid as not to know this. And even their corrupt experts know the mighty way out of this rests on a combination of solar-green hydrogen, new fission nuclear, Thorium, and fusion (in order of difficulty)

How many people did the nuclear civilian industry kill in the West? Around zero [However read caveat [1]]. The incredible meltdown at Fukushima of three reactors crushed by gigantic fifteen story tall waves  killed nobody (more people died from forced and useless evacuation!) The tsunami killed 20,000, but even pseudo-ecologists recognize the nuclear industry has nothing to do with it… Now Fukushima made both Japan and Germany quit the nuclear industry, so they claimed.
In 2015, nuclear reactors in the U.S. alone generated as much zero-carbon electricity as all the wind turbines on the planet combined. And these reactors use obsolete nuclear technology, and are very old…

Germany instead developed massively lignite, the dirtiest coal, already used by Neanderthals, killing thousands of Europeans.. If not dozens of thousands… Well, as I have argued, killing people is the ultimate (dark) ecology… So it makes sense, but in a perverse way, because this was not necessary…  

***

Meanwhile, so much ice is melting that Earth’s crust is moving… Melting on the Greenland ice sheet is contributing to the sideways slip of Earth’s crust. Ice melt removes mass from Earth’s continents, a study published in Nature (and led by a woman) shows. Yes, an horizontal slip. Liberated from the overlying weight, land that was once covered by ice lifts up: that’s called orolift, and still affects Scandinavia. This vertical response is accompanied with the ground slipping horizontally

Between 2003 and 2018, ice melting from Greenland and from Arctic glaciers caused the ground to shift horizontally across much of the Northern Hemisphere, and by as much as 0.3 millimeters a year in much of Canada and the United States. In some areas, even far from the melting ice, the horizontal movement was greater than the vertical movement.

This is just the start. A worldwide temperature rise of 3 degrees centigrade (1.3 to 1.5 C so far) is quickly ahead. I personally predict 7 degrees rise centigrade by 2100 (from personal research focusing on small thermal inertia systems)… Except if emergency measures are taken (they will be).

Speaking of emergency, China, most craftily, is turning on the first large scale THORIUM nuclear reactor, the first Thorium reactor since 1969… China also has the foresight to equip its new coal plants presently much used to make solar panels for Bin Biden and his voters, in such a way that their coal furnaces can be replaced by Thorium reactors in the future…. 

Another note: giant efforts in wind power have been made. That’s stupid, to the extend it’s being done, neglecting the rest. A fundamental reason is that the wind can die, as it did in the North Sea in 2021, causing a worldwide natural gas and energy squeeze. In turn, that require to leave gigantic fossil fuels as backup (look at Germany!). But not just this. Under my own production, torrid heating is immediately ahead. What would that cause? The main terrestrial convection cells originate around the equator, where very hot and very wet air is lifted, and then, having nowhere else to go, head towards the poles, until it cools down and sink at the latitudes of the Mediterranean-desertic belt, then coming back towards the equator as “Trade Winds”. Closer to the poles, the Coriolis force caused by Earth’s rotation, shows up as “Westerlies”. In between, no winds…

Guess what? Each degree of planetary heating will bring the tropical belt north hundreds of kilometers, and thus, the no-wind belt… The giant off shore wind parks with their thousands of skyscraper turbines full of precious metals will become much more idle than expected… Soon, ladies and gentlemen, soon… 

Patrice Ayme  

P/S: Elon Musk, the top implementer of science fiction space and battery technology has turned decidedly pro-nuclear:

Musk added, as a closing thought:

“I’m also kind of pro-nuclear. And I’m sort of surprised by the public sentiment against nuclear. I’m not saying we should go build a whole bunch of new nuclear plants. But I don’t think we should shut down ones that are operating safely. They did this in Germany and had to create a whole bunch of coal power plants, and I don’t think that was the right decision, frankly.”

No, bad decision, except if what one wants is a world war preceded and accompanied with apocalyptic climate calamity: a 7 C rise in 80 years is simply unfathomable, but that’s what we will get… Absent cutting the crap about the present wind-solar-dams as all we need… Go jog down California’s empty reservoirs for edification…

***

[1] Caveat: Atmospheric nuclear bomb tests in the 1950s mostly, seem to have increased mortality. That of course has nothing to do with Western civilian nuclear power. The Chernobyl explosion in the Ukraine which officially killed 31 (USSR) to 50 (UN) persons, caused probably many thousands of excess deaths. Official registries indicate that 600,000 people were granted liquidator status.

However that exploded nuclear plant was completely, and thoroughly unlawful in the West, using gas technology which had been found to be extremely dangerous, especially when operated at low power (as during the safety test which led to the explosion while operated by fools at 2 am…) And thus the graphite-gas nuclear tech was NOT developed by France and the US (they both studied it). And the plant exploded in the open air because it had no containment building… And that too is completely unlawful in the West. A compounding factor was the enormity, the sheer size, of that particular reactor type… Something also not authorized in the West… Nuclear power can be made very safe, that doesn’t mean any nuclear power is safe…  


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