Posts Tagged ‘Research’

Trade Wars, Divisions, War War: It Happened Before, In The 1930s

March 10, 2018

Stupid Is Depressing:

Trump plans to institute tariffs which have made the European Union angry. Jean-Claude Juncker is the head of the European Commission, the part of the European executive which heads the European administration, 32,000 strong, of 500 million souls. Juncker retorted to Trump: ”This is stupid. We can do stupid too.” Juncker has been around: he is quadrilingual French, English, German, and Luxembourgeois. Also, as PM of Luxembourg for two decades, he masterminded the transformation from its bovine economy to onshore tax haven. In any case, Europe is drawing a list of symbolic US products to be struck with tariffs too, from motorcycles to liquor. Let’s backtrack a moment here. This sort of madness is how the crash of Wall Street in 1929 and the Great Depression were engineered.

***

Crash of Wall Street & Great Depression:

A massive, and deliberate overheating of the economy happened in 1920s. The Anglo-Saxon elite had decided to inflate out of the British World War One debt. US car production reached level in 1928 it won’t see again until 1948. When overheating became blatant, the US central bank decided to raise interest rates, the economy started to falter, and the US Congress decide to get real smart, the way idiots do it. Simply, Washington reasoned, why don’t we reduce imports? When investors with a modicum of real economics heard this, they understood an economic war was pointing its ugly snout, and they pulled out.  

After the markets crashed, they recovered, as the US Senate hesitated. However, the situation became catastrophic in 1930. Then the Smoot-Hawley tariffs were finally imposed, and Europe retaliated in kind. It would have been better to keep European production in Europe, buying the cars from government money , and selling them at a loss. That would have been socialist, and only the USA would have suffered. European tariffs made US exports collapse, companies went bankrupt, banks followed, and people lost all they had, as bank deposits were not insured either privately, collectively, or by the government itself. The economy greatly depressed.    

***

The questions are: what is China doing right, and what are we doing wrong? Of these sorts of graphs, world wars are made. Notice that, in a few years, China got the world top GDP. Our crafty leaders say China has built too much! It’s going to crash! I say: go look at the homeless in US streets, it’s sickening. I say: contemplate that Paris didn’t build one skyscraper in… forty-four (44) years. They say: it’s to keep Paris pretty! I say: they deliberately don’t build, and it’s like that all over the West, more or less… Why? Keep it expensive, elitist. That “austerity” extends to activities such as scientific research (where China spends enormously). Actually Trump just wants to eliminate the world’s main existing thermonuclear research facility, and even European scientists are screaming that’s an outrage. 

***

The Great Depression Brought The Mood Of War:

In Germany, the Great Depression brought Hitler to power. In the USA, Roosevelt. Both decided to reflate their economies at all costs, using similar methods (following Keynes all too much; Keynes had advocated make-belief work, if need be). The much richer USA for example decided to build 24 “Fleet Aircraft Carriers”. For comparison, and giving an idea how expensive fleet carriers were, Germany planned to have two such carriers by 1945. The US carriers, were helped by an enormous fleet of more than 200 “fleet submarines” (each nearly 100 meters long). The US subs sank 60% of the Japanese merchant navy, and eight “Jap” aircraft carriers.

Roosevelt put also millions to work, employed by the government. Hitler tried similar tricks, forgetting small details, like that Germany had no oil, and that much of its miracle economy was actually the province of US plutocracy. All the more self-contradictory as the Nazis officially hated so much those plutocrats they were the humble pigeons of.

Meanwhile the French Republic didn’t like the Hitler circus, seeing world war painted all over it, and went to Washington to protest the collusion of US plutocrats and Nazi demoncrats.That didn’t sit very well with old family plutocrat Roosevelt, who hated France anyway, as he saw in France both a juicy prey, and a threat to the plutocratic order, especially of the US sort. In any case, the relationship between France and the USA became execrable in 1934, and would stay that way for the duration, until 1945, and much beyond.

From the French point of view, the easy money, frantic spending on the military of the Anglo-Saxons and the Nazis was wrong in all ways. So the French economy relatively shrank, as France grimly prepared for world war. Sure enough, by 1937, the German economy was in deep trouble, and Hitler had no choice but rob Jews and others to create an appearance of wealth to his millions of increasingly rabid supporters.

Thus we see that the Great Depression did more than depress economies and psychologies: it put the French Republic on a collision course with the USA and the UK. The UK realized its mistake by 1936, and threw out its young Nazi king. By 1939, the UK, having seen Spain fall to Hitler, aligned itself with France, but the USA kept aligning itself, de facto, through its plutocrats and a diplomatic service helping them, with Hitler. (By 1944, though, the top US generals, whom Roosevelt couldn’t control, allied themselves with the French military, because they saw the valor, and had the need. Besides they were in palatial arrangements at the Versailles castle…The relationship stayed tumultuous, though…)

So question: does Trump want to renew with the mistakes of the past? Germany is now solidly allied to France and is a republic too. The only “oiseau de mauvaise augure”, actually a well-defined vulture, is Putin… However recently US forces in Syria eliminated 50% of a force of Russian “volunteers”…

***.

Divided We Can’t Stand:

The trade wars of the 1930s brought division to Europe. Nazism and the “Axis” would never have happened as they did, complete with holocausts and world wars, had the three big representative democracies of the West stayed united. (But of course, Roosevelt, like Hitler, wanted to grab the world; he was just much more crafty about it! Thus much more successful.)

For example Belgium would have built the segment of the Maginot line it was supposed to build, and that would have blocked, or slowed down the Panzers long enough for the superior French forces to regroup where needed (US influence pushed Belgium to suddenly become “neutral”, thus betray France, following that way the pernicious queen of the Netherlands, who digged the grave of her own country, with her love for Kaiser and Germany…)

More prosaically, German generals wanted a pretext to kill the Nazis. Instead Hitler showed them an isolated France… The US attitude was to play all sides, until the American Century got firmly established.

Nowadays, France and the USA are solidly allied. They are fighting side by side in Africa, something which started long ago, in 1978, when the French paras dropped on Kolwezi (the US provided some airlift, and the go-ahead). The war against the Islamists in Africa is long, intense, unforgiving. The Trump administration rightly denounced China’s maneuvers in Africa (suck all the juice, and ever more encroach…)

***

And the Truth Is That The US and EU Elites Are Lying:

The US deficit is fundamentally caused by the exportations to China, Mexico, etc, of US production. So the slaves overseas are doing the work, while the higher class in the USA does not have to deal with pesky, expensive US unionized workers. Increase profit, decrease labor, grow plutocracy. What isn’t there for plutocrats, our lords and masters, to like?

Otherwise Trump is bluffing. Trump is trying to cut a deal about NAFTA/ALENA. To threaten tariffs is Trump’s dangerous and silly negotiation mode. Europe should ignore his craziness, but Europe, like Trump, is trying to make the peons believe it is doing something, when actually it’s doing even less.

So both the EU and the US elites are having a disingenuous argument. They play for the gallery of the naive out there, while the play is getting a life of its own. The right way out is to implement, throughout the West, a version of what Roosevelt did in the 1930s which was right: not the fight with France, that was wrong, not the support of overseas US plutocrats machinations, that was even worse. What was right was the rearmament program (developing and deploying more advanced weapons), and putting people to work, while cleaning up finance. And going to school, more than ever (as French president Macron just promoted in India). But schools all over, and everybody going to them is not enough: we need to put intelligence to work. And work, in the incoming age of robots, especially talking robots, of the sleek type I had on the phone today, means research. Nowadays scientific research should be promoted to the max. If not for us, and our children, for the planet… Can we please, believe in something, for a change?

Patrice Aymé

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Tech, Science, Thinking, Stalled By Plutocracy

May 26, 2015

TECH STALLED BECAUSE SO IS SCIENCE, & THINKING, AS OUR MASTERS DESIRE

Technology, Energy, Science, Economy all entangled, & Stalled:

Some have observed tech is bringing up more hype than progress: we did not get flying cars, but 140 characters. Productivity is stagnating. The Internet hype led a devolution of thinking, for all to see. Some sites seem popular, mostly because they induce a parody of thinking (even on “academic” sites).

Against the will to stupidity, genius roars in vain.

So much of the “high Tech” is not truly high tech, or at least new tech. It’s no big deal, indeed. The “high tech” monopolies, with their “big data” will allow to make with robots what our ancestors used to have with domesticated animals (an ass, horse, or an ox are clever, and respond to voice commands, like the day after tomorrow’s robots).

There is not enough financing of the possible avenues of futuristic research. Here is one:

Real high tech would mean progress in energy production: this is the core of what defines our species. An obvious possibility, indeed, is thermonuclear fusion. H-Bombs work splendidly, and are very small. Making a thermonuclear engine has been difficult, but propulsion in space could turn around a lot of the difficulty we presently have.

Krugman noticed some of this in “The Big Meh” [I sent wise comments, therefore all censored by the New York Times; the Times later sent me kindly an unsolicited letter to justify its censorship; there is no excuse: the New York Times should not censor serious and cogent comments, this is a misuse of technology].

Krugman: “The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy”… began with some technology snark, dismissing Earth as a planet whose life-forms “are so amazingly primitive that they still think digital watches are a pretty neat idea.”… Since then we’ve moved on to much more significant things, so much so that the big technology idea of 2015, so far, is a digital watch…

O.K., I’m snarking, too. But there is a real question here. Everyone knows that we live in an era of incredibly rapid technological change, which is changing everything. But what if what everyone knows is wrong? And I’m not being wildly contrarian here. A growing number of economists, looking at the data on productivity and incomes, are wondering if the technological revolution has been greatly overhyped — and some technologists share their concern.”

We evolved as a technological species: weapon and tool usage precedes the apparition of Homo:

Technology preceded the apparition of Homo Erectus, two million years ago. So we can only conclude that technology, and its attached science, and scientific method, created the ecological niche in which Homo, even homo Erectus, evolved.

The fundamental evolutionary niche our very distant ancestors, pre-Homo Erectus, chose was to improve the quantity and quality of energy at our disposal. They went to explore, far from trees and cliffs, armed with stone tools and weapons, with a bias towards a much more carnivorous diet.

Technology and science are us. This is as human as we get. That does not mean anything goes. Just, that’s how humanity gets going.

Thus, our very evolution is entangled with our mastery of energy. Neanderthals used coal (lignite!) already 80,000 years ago. When our ancestors learned to domesticate animals and then invented agriculture, we improved our mastery of energy considerably. In the last 2,000 years, wood was progressively replaced by fossil fuels.

However, fossil fuels have become unsustainable. It is not just that they have put so much CO2 in the lower atmosphere, warming it, melting the ice, rising the seas, and into the ocean, making it acid.

The Return On Investment (ROI) of fossil fuels is now terrible. Major oil companies do not make much profits on new fields: they cost too much to find and exploit. Fracking makes money, but only because the states, and others, pay the price. Remember: 5.3 trillion dollars of fossil fuel subsidies out there.

However progress in economic matters is all about ROI in energy. Without energy we have no food, no shelter, we die.

We don’t have flying cars because we did not improve our mastery of energy as much as that would require (the very first plane, part of a French military program, did not fly very far: it used a heavy steam plant; shortly after, the internal combustion engine allowed to take-off more clearly; right now Airbus sells an electric plane, and intents to develop that technology much further).

Fundamental progress in energy technology has been stalled by lack of advances in fission, fusion, and batteries. Only solar photovoltaics is making really spectacular progress.

This stalling of major technological progress where it counts, in energy management is why society, and the planet, are threatened. This stalling is directly related to a dearth of fundamental research funding, itself related to the rise of a non-tax paying plutocracy. We are in whirlpool of disaster, and the greed of an oligarchy is its nature.

Patrice Ayme’

P/S: Latest News: Amazon Inc. just announced it would stop hiding its European profits in Luxembourg, and would set-up tax paying subsidiaries in various countries: it was threatened by incoming British and French laws. However, skepticism is widespread about the fine print in Amazon’s proposal…

The future was not stalled in the past: Contrarily to what happened around the era from, say, 1900 to 1970, when many futuristic technologies were researched; the USA operated nuclear rocket engines, France flew a “statoreacteur” (“ramjet”) plane, etc.; the inception of motorized flight, from the French steam plane, all the way to jet engines, took around 50 years!

 

Singing Praises Of Great Leaders Is Not Progress

November 18, 2014

Six years ago, We The People in the USA were expecting change that was not going to happen. OK, it could be worse: Bush’s behavior in 2003 was nearly in the same category as Putin: ”I invade, therefore I am.”

Fortunately, in the meantime, Americans and the British came to see the error of their ways. Cameron gave a hard time to Putin in Brisbane, Harper (whom I don’t like) told Putin to “get out of Ukraine” (this, I like).

Hollande of France, meeting with Putin, just sat down in a hurry, as if he could not stomach to stand next to Putin. Putin stayed up, brandishing his hand below Hollande’s nose. Then Putin waved his hand up and down. Hollande finally got up, and shook the hand of the Russian dictator. Maybe some Australian suggested that Putin ought to be extended some protocol.

Change You Can't Believe: Research Go Down Under "Democrats"

Change You Can’t Believe: Research Go Down Under “Democrats”

[It’s actually worse than it looks, see below.]

In general, Putin ought not to be extended common courtesy. He is an uncommon dictator, a very dangerous one. Even the Soviet dictators, all of them, did not dare violate International Law as grossly as Putin did.

Just like the dictator of Sudan, or the president of Kenya, Putin ought to see himself prosecuted by the International Court of Justice. Meanwhile I strongly not rising to one’s feet when he shows up, except to hiss.

If Hitler had been treated as the rabid dog he was by the first part of 1939, by the USA and Britain (and not just by France), he would not just have been more careful. That, anyway, would have been no solution.

The solution was regime change, and Hitler’s top generals were willing. Now, of course, Putin knows this, so, differently from Hitler’s, Putin’s top generals are also plutocrats in their own right (only Goering was in that position, rotten and satanic, in Hitler’s armed forces; the chief of the army, Beck, and his main collaborators, were clean, strict Prussians, and they could see Hitler had put Germany on a collision course with reality).

It’s time to make Russian generals feel that Putin is threatening Russia, as Hitler did, with Germany. Better a coup than total democracy, Putin style.

Meanwhile, Paul Krugman, the most read (pseudo-)progressive in the world, went back to his habit toof praising all things “Obama”. Yet, because the simplest evocation of “Obama” makes We The People stay at home, or vote “Republican”, Krugman praises “government” in “When Government Succeeds”.

Karen Garcia, perhaps the best commenter at the New York Times, disagreed with Krugman-the-Sycophant. OK, OK, I know, there is more money in being a sycophant for the mighty. Karen wrote, contradicting Krugman where it should hurt:

It’s not “health reform” — it’s a piecemeal reining-in of the predatory insurance cartel. And although the premiums may be holding steady, the Affordable Care Act is anything but for many people. Deductibles and co-pays are through the roof.

Health care in America is just like the lottery. It’s the luck of living in the right state and picking the right plan at the right time. You’re not a patient who gets treated. You’re a consumer who goes shopping. Some people will be “covered” and others will still go bankrupt when they get sick and can’t afford a $5,000 annual deductible on a $20,000 income.

That “fake scandal” that Paul Krugman refers is, of course, being used for nefarious political purposes by the GOP. But the fact remains that MIT economist and ACA consultant (to the tune of $400,000) Michael Gruber not only called people stupid — he admitted that the law was made deliberately opaque. Politicians were more interested in making this delayed “reform” seem deficit-neutral than in ensuring that everybody got covered. Politics trumped the public good. And that IS a scandal, no matter which side of the neoliberal duopoly you’re on.

The fact remains that least 40 million Americans remain uninsured, and will continue to needlessly sicken and die in the richest country on earth. We have the most expensive medical care in the world and still rank a shameful 51st in life expectancy.

That is the scandal.

Government will succeed when we get Single Payer.”

I support what Karen Garcia wrote: I basically said for years that it was exactly what was going on, and what would happen. And it did. Singing the praises of Obamacare is self-defeating for progressives.

Fifty-first in life expectancy, but first in bombing capability. What could go wrong?

Obama was partly undone by self-satisfaction for the little that had been already done, and the sycophants all around. Remember the Nobel Peace Prize? For what? Talking the talk? A pre-payment for future service to the reigning plutocracy?

It is true that economic activity organized by the government has its place, because not everything responds to the profit motive. An excellent example is health CARE. Care responds to care, not profit. That’s why it’s called health care, not health profit.

https://patriceayme.wordpress.com/2013/08/13/synthesis-found-governmentalism/

Only wild dogs and hyenas ought to profit from the sick. It’s a long tradition among wild humans, too, thus demonstrating health plutocrats are akin to wild beasts.

The greatest flaw of Obamacare is that it did not even try to start the transition from health profit to health care.

In general, the Obama presidency is turning into a rout for the Democratic Party. People will judge by themselves the very high deductibles of Obamacare. There is a pattern to all this, a common logic: https://patriceayme.wordpress.com/2014/11/16/obamacare-to-police-state-same-logic/

A fundamental conceptual mistake greedsters and the economists supporting them (Chicago school, Harvard) have been making is not to realize that much of the economy does not respond to the profit motive. Yet, Darius and Themistocles (heads of Persia and Athens, respectively) had understood this absolutely, and put it to tremendous use.

Darius built, Eisenhower style, a freeway system so that news from all over the continent sized Persian Empire, spread on three continents, could reach the center in a week, thanks to the (Persian) Pony Express.

Themistocles built a giant Navy, thanks to a public-private set-up, wasting Attica’s forests in the process.

All this was more than 25 centuries ago.

The government can do two very important things: support education, fundamental research, and set-up giant, important, free utilities (like Darius’ freeways, and the Internet). The fundament of the foundations of all this is to pass laws: thus the Franks forced the Church to teach secularly, around 750 CE. All states have now followed, and make education mandatory.

The Obama administration has reduced government support for fundamental research. Fundamental research on basic science is where governmental support is irreplaceable. Instead many others have been financed, such as the for-profit industrial corporation Space X, while NASA is drifting aimlessly.

Krugman sang also the praises of government about Ebola. Indeed, well organized governments stopped the epidemic in its tracks: Senegal had one Ebola case, a Guinean student who had lied, when he got into Senegal. However, he was cured, and there was no other case, although Guinea and Senegal share a long border.

Speaking of borders, the main frontline organization for Ebola was the non-profit, high risk, Doctors Without Borders (initially the French Medecins Sans Frontieres, which was attributed, the Nobel Peace Prize, and rightly so!). Although, in this case, Obama acted well, although belatedly.

Speaking of Ebola, a vaccine, or two, exist (the disease was discover by the French in 1993; the vaccines use pieces of the cover of the virus).

However, those vaccines have not been fabricated, from lack of government financing. Austerity you know, so that the plutocrats can become ever richer!

Ah, but not all is bleak. Fundamental research on nuclear weapons is in the process of passing the all-time peak (established under Reagan), thanks to the Obama administration.

Patrice Ayme’

Imperial Justice Wins

March 27, 2014

AN EMPIRE OF JUSTICE HELPS DEFEAT EMPIRES OF EVIL

Thus if a tribe wants to survive, it helps to be more moral than the opposition.

Minorities ruling vast empires have existed before. The Mongol empire extended from Croatia to Iran, India and South China. Yet, the Mongol army was composed of only twenty tumens of 10,000 cavaliers each. Superbly efficient military ethics made it like clockwork. Yes, even morality can help an army directly.

Genghis Khan, like Muhammad before him, taught his followers that they should keep all their energy to fight others, rather than to kill each other.

Xi Xia Could Not Fly Away

Xi Xia Could Not Fly Away

Yet, morality is not sufficient to rule. And morality is not just about posing. First, morality is about being smart, as instructed by history.

We don’t have the money to feed the hungry, whine the silly ones, and they propose to cut fundamental research about life or the universe. For the silly ones, understanding the universe is a deeply felt tragedy. After all, it goes against their grain.

The truth, though, is that hunger has to do with war. And war is something that needs to be understood, because war has always been the ultimate arbiter of the fate of civilizations.

Under Stalin’s USSR, one hundred million adult Russians ruled over half a billion people, then 20% of humanity.

The greatest Buddhist polity, ever, was an empire, the Western Xia, the Xi Xia, south of Mongolia.

Bad Location For Weakness

Bad Location For Weakness

Xi Xia got the bad idea to enslave a young Genghis Khan. Xi Xia was eradicated, just as the Buddhist empire that covered most of India earlier, was eradicated. Thereafter, Buddhism lost influence.

Repeating word for word dictator Putin’s lies is no way to understand war, or history. But it’s a good way to let plutocracy, led by a brute, triumph, and bury civilization.

The average wealth of 110 million adult Russians in 2013 was $11,000. However the median wealth was $870. Thus, if wealth was equally distributed in Russia, the average Russian would be 12 times richer. But don’t worry, oh silly ones who love Putin because he is a strong master of weakness: revolution in Russia won’t happen tomorrow. 110 Russian billionaires, Putin’s Pretorian guard from hell, detain 35% of Russia’s wealth.

The first time that I heard that giving food to people as if they were pigeons was more important than learning to think better, I was a child and men were landing on the Moon. A family of austere European people, oozing with contempt, informed me that my moral system was completely skewed. Instead of watching the lunar surface, mesmerized, I should have empathy about feeding the poor, and spite for those who had preoccupations that went beyond filling the plates.

However, I was from Africa. And what I gathered on that deprived continent, was that understanding is the most important food there is. Food and peace come from understanding, not the other way around. And understanding is one: what we learn from nature bring us models that carry to humanity, as humanity, and its world, are of and within, nature.

If one wants to fight malnutrition in Africa, one had to understand the world, first.  Those European people who denied that struck me, not just as posers, but as hypocrites on the side of exploitation, whether they knew it, or not (BTW, BHL falls directly under that critique, as I explained in the past!).

I knew well that people were not starving from lack of food, but from lack of organization to provide them with food.

In the following decades, it turned out that starvation and war ravaged Africa. It was certainly from empires, the wrong sort of empires.

The empires of plutocrats and local kinglets and warlords. For example the philosopher BHL ravaged the primary forests of Africa, and made lots of money, power and influence for himself, with the complicity of the French presidents. He was one of many. The crimes of those associated to Coltan, Rwanda and some high tech companies in the USA were much greater: more than 6 million died in the ensuing war.

At this point, the potential world agricultural food production is enough for about 12 billion people. However, subsidies are given for agriculture in the richest countries: that is a sneaky form of exploitation, as it makes the less developed parts of the world dependent upon the agribusiness of the richest, by killing local food production (and thus, in the long run, killing by starvation the local population).

Advanced countries agricultural subsidies are a form of war and exploitation of the most disadvantaged (and also a war against the biosphere, as they typically involve unsustainable methods).

This also means that, wherever there are starving people it’s from war. As observed. Thus, putting a bag of rice on one’s shoulder is not optimal: it’s an irrelevance, and an hypocrisy.

What’s needed is an empire, an empire of justice, not an empire of more rice. Justice brings rice, rice does not bring justice.

Imperial Fail: What’s Left Of Xia

Imperial Fail: What’s Left Of Xia

This has been understood to some (small) extent: the International Criminal Court has judged exclusively (so far) African leaders.

One needs much more understanding in how the human mind works.

Fortunately, Hitler, and his cortege of plutocrats was seen before. Now that Putin and his cortege of plutocrats is in plain sight, there may be enough understanding to not repeat the same mistakes about how to treat the collective madness.

All the more as, and I explained this thoroughly, see my: “Reverse Yalta, Free Ukraine!”, the present madness is a direct continuation of one started more than 100 years ago. The study systems of thoughts can exhibit astounding continuity, from the Kaiser, to Czar Putin.

Indeed fascist imperialist Prussian Plutos were best friends with Lenin and Stalin. After the latter were ferried by the former in a special train from Switzerland (always neutral except in the matter of making money) to Russia, the latter promptly made peace, offering to the Kaiser Eastern Europe. The alliance between Stalinists and Hitlerists became official in August 1939, in a vain attempt to dissuade the French Republic to launch a world war. But that alliance had been going on, all along, as the USSR allowed renascent German fascism to turn around the safeguards the Versailles Treaty had set against massive German re-militarization.

Psychologically, we have the same set-up as usual: the plutocrats in Moscow, with their giant bank accounts in Londongrad, feel they have the Western democracies by the throat, same as their ancestors in the 1930s, when they called Berlin home.

Confronted to force serving evil, only a greater and smarter force can win. For once, Obama has been acting near to perfection. Putin did not attack this week, as he wants to look benign before the United Nations General Assembly vote tomorrow. But make no mistake: his generals are telling him time works against him, and the rest of Ukraine is for him to take.

As I explained in 1938?, Hitler moved against Austria before a free vote could be held. After conquering Austria, and Crimea, Hitler, and Putin, were able to organize referenda with exactly 97%, for their dictatorships.

Ukraine is to vote May 25. Putin’s tanks will attack before that, except if he gets persuaded something horrendous lays in his future, should he do so. Can the West look sufficiently scary? That is the question.

War primes everything. War makes history. That, Putin, former head of the Russian Gestapo (KGB, FSB) knows all too well.

Patrice Aymé

Ideas For Democrats

October 17, 2012

So here we are. Romney has a plan, in five points. Obama says Romney’s plan is just one point: the rich should play with different rules. But what’s Obama’s plan? What is Obama’s point? Nothing. Except more of the same. And the same does not work.

The democrats have zero new ideas. After he was elected president, Obama spent two years on his knees, begging republicans to change tone. Apparently he was elected president to beg for love: Obama did not need republicans, in the first few months, as he enjoyed a supermajority. [See note.] Did he want to do nothing more than Bush, in the hope he would be rewarded, like Clinton (or Major, or Blair, or Sarkozy)? Giving six figure speeches to the powers that be.

I long pointed out that the economy is worse than in the 1930s, in some dimensions. Not too many celebrities point that out on the left: their power & wealth depend upon the present corrupt intellectual scheme.  I want to meditate this graph:

French & German Private Companies Research & Development.

A consequence is this graph:

German Industrial Production Is Higher Than Ever. Because Research and Development in German private companies is higher than ever.

Why to brandish France and Germany in the context of the election in the USA? The European Union is an excellent place to test policies. What we see above is that Germany did something right, and France the exact same thing, wrong. With dramatic consequences (jobs are disappearing by the thousands in France every day it seems). Something resembling what’s done in Germany is basically the only solution for the West. And that’s real progressivism.

Germany is doing great economically. Germany has an unemployment rate of 5.5% although she accepted no less than one million new Eurozone residents, who came to work, in the last year alone. A spectacular way to solve the… German problem… Now something more about a dying birthrate.

Many leaders, political, academic or intellectual, on the left are more corrupt than on the right, because their minds are twisted. They are not what they seem. They are the opposite of what they claim. Those pseudo leftists are plutocrats, or next to plutocrats, or serving plutocrats… while claiming to serve the People. At least the Koch brothers, when they do their machinations, are really trying to influence public opinion the way one expects them to.

Whereas plutocrats such as (chief of the democrats in Congress) Nancy Pelosi (personal worth perhaps as great as Romney, about 200 million dollars), or (Senior Senator) Dianne Feinstein (personal worth up to twice Romney) claim to care about the plebs… Which is fine. However their historical record is that they did nothing when they controlled Congress, except for extending Bush’s tax cuts, Bush’s wars, and an ObamaCare who looks (to me) more like BuffetCare than anything else (Buffet is a notorious investor in HMOs and the like). So they are not what they seem.

Many of the critiques Romney has been making, I have been making over the years, to wit:

1) the lowering of the median family income by more than $4,300 (roughly 10%, in constant dollars). This is actually (one of) the main argument I historically made to qualify the present slump as the “Greater Depression”. (There are other arguments, now reinforcing, such as the decrease of life expectancy.) 

2) that health care costs are out of control. Romney said they increased by more than $2,000 under Obama, and independent evaluators have forecast a proximal augmentation of the average family health insurance bill by as much as ObamaCare kicks in fully by 2014.

To put health care under control the only way is to make the basic plan public (as this takes the profit motive out of the cost of rendering care to the otherwise moribund). OK, Obama could push for that later.

3) the lack of jobs. Romney say he will get tougher with China, for currency manipulation (Obama already did this quite a bit), and Intellectual Property theft. IP theft is the big one. The West has been like a baby while the Chinese Communist Party and its plutocratic agents have been stealing IP right and left to the West.

The democrats have no plan, but Romney came up with one: take out all the deductions, beyond $25,000 total, do not tax capital gains below $200,000. And of course, reduce taxes all across the board, except, overall, for the top 5%.

How come the democrats do not have a plan? OK, tax the rich mandatorily 30%. That’s their would be plan. Good luck forcing Pelosi and Feinstein to pay 30% tax. The average Congress person and senator is a high multimilionaire, I do not see them taxing themselves. Moreover, taxes do not mean jobs, as Constantinople demonstrated for a millennium.

The same critique can be made to, say, the French Socialists. There the proposed tax is 75%. But entrepreneurs in France revolted, and used exactly the same argument as Romney: small companies create jobs, a lot of the pseudo millionaires actually re-invest massively in their companies, creating employment. A really progressive agenda has to take this into account. Bitten by critique that way, the French Socialists accepted that Romney/Silicon Valley argument, and operated a strategic retreat. And now they are sitting on their haunches, thinking harder and deeper… (Notice that the Socialists are in total control of France: Presidency, Senate, Parliament, most large cities and regions; what they have is an intellectual, not political problem.)

This argument, that multi-millionaire entrepreneurs create jobs, is correct, and close to the heart of Germany’s economic success. I would argue that small entrepreneurs should be taxed ZERO on the portion of the money they make that they reinvest in R&D.

German entrepreneur-owners in the Mittlestand (Middle Stand) re-invest massively in their companies. OK, they are tough with their employees, but is it better to have a sadistic boss rather than having no income whatsoever? OK, it depends how sadistic, it’s all about 50 Shades Of Grey (Feldgrau in this case…).

Thus it would be good for USA democrats and French Socialists to have a system similar to that Angela Merkel presides over. The Mittelstand invests massively in research and development.

In 2011, Germany obtained three times more patents than France (which has 83% of the population of Germany). Here are the numbers from 2008:

Rank Country No. of Patents Granted
1  Japan 239,338
2  United States 146,871
3  South Korea 79,652
4  Germany 53,752
5  China 48,814
6  France 25,535
7  Russia 22,870
8  Italy 12,789
9  United Kingdom 12,162
10  Switzerland 11,291
11  Netherlands 11,103
12  Canada 8,188
13  Sweden 7,453
14  Finland 4,675
15  Australia 4,386
16  Spain 3,636
17  Belgium 2,948
18  Israel 2,665
19  Denmark 2,347
20  Austria 2,306

The classification is very different for patents in force, and for applications. Comparing all, it seems some countries, presently in economic difficulty are seeing their patent position decay quickly. Digging a bit deeper, one can see that research and development led by private companies has exploded in Germany, while it has decayed in France.

The bottom line is this: people in the developing world earn at most 5% of what they would earn, with the same job, in the developed countries. Reciprocally this means that most employees, in developed countries, are paid twenty, and often thirty times too much, or at least would be if the communications were free.

The way out is for developed countries to develop jobs that cannot be replaced at a distance. Except for low lives’ jobs, such as pushing carts around and shining shoes in airport, this means jobs depending upon knowledge most countries cannot endow their citizens with. Firms with a persistent R&D strategy outperform those with an irregular or no R&D investment.

European Countries With Higher R&D Do Much Better

So, to provide with employment, developed societies should be oriented towards research, to develop further. The target should not be 3%, but 10% of GDP. A good way to do this would be to make all research and development go tax free. $6.6 billion of research tax credit has been claimed recently in the USA, a very small fraction of the total R&D, so there is a lot of room to spur research using taxation!

It goes without saying that forcing the banks away from derivatives, and back into the real economy would help. One can easily argue that three quarter of world finance is actually a criminal organization. How? Simple: the world used to work with 8% of corporate profits in finance. Now it’s 40%. Those 32%, one third of world profits, can only be explained as parasitism of some sort.

So let the left talk about these things. That would be more constructive than the specious arguments Obama used in the debate to mark points with the silly ones [See note]. If Obama is elected without an effective plan, the situation is pretty sure to disintegrate further, and when things get too desperate, the fascist instinct always gets in gear.

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Patrice Ayme

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Note on Obama’s specious arguments: the 47%. And the Benghazi fiasco. Obama said he used the word “terror” the next day. But I thoroughly documented that the White House administration prepared declarations at the time accused those who “denigrated Islam”, not a deliberate Salafist attack by a commando (which is what really happened). Instead a video describing the Qur’an according to itself (!), and a French magazine with two silly drawings (one representing a Jew and a Muslim, and the other that I reproduced). I would actually suggest that Clinton sacrifice herself, and resign. Time to man up. After all, there was a massive Salafist base next door (since then destroyed by inhabitants of Benghazi in retaliation for the attack on the Consulate of the USA).

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Note on supermajority: I sent a comment on the Krugman New York Times editorial (another freaky attack accusing Romney to have lied about what he did in next year). I pointed out Obama did nothing when he could have done everything. exceptionally, the NYT published it, jointly with a reply that I was deluded because Obama had a super majority of 60 in the Senate for only 14 weeks (as the rest of the time, the reply argued, poor Ted Kennedy was idiotically “housebound“, meaning Teddy, a specialist of swimming against the current, preferred to help the republicans by eating pancakes at home, rather than facing his destiny, and resigning).

That was doubly idiotic: first of all, the democrats controlled Congress for four years, during which, they did preciously nothing. Secondly, even if it’s all the fault of poor rich Teddy boy eating pancakes at home, 14 weeks is a long time. In less than 14 weeks, the French Socialist government has passed an enormous amount of legislation, including a European financial rescue mechanism, an FDIC for Europe (that required sorting things out with 26 other Congresses!), a 75% tax on income, a financial transaction tax, and the French Socialists passed countless other laws.

Face it guys: Obama hid behind Oblahblah, also known as George W. Bush III… And plutocrat Pelosi, his prophet.

So the New York Times published my comment which mentioned just in passing “supermajority”, joined with a reply already “approved” by 108 people (!) In other words, a lot of money is deployed to cheaply twist reality. How could have these people read by stuff, reply to it, and have 108 people read the reply, and approve it? All in one nanosecond?