Posts Tagged ‘temperature’

Exponentiating The Climate; Or When “Experts” Exponentiate Themselves.

December 12, 2020

“Experts” in infectious diseases, at least those at the top of the hierarchy, including the world health Organization and the much admired Dr. Fauci, have proven disastrously wrong in the orders they advised governments to give to fight the COVID pandemic... Could it be that expertise is itself infected?

Experts did well in many other countries, from China to New Zealand, so we can compare. In the most “advanced” and largest “representative democracies” of the “West”, “experts” seem to make a habit of giving “advice” which makes bad situations, worse… Examples abound, I will sketch a few here. Probably because, those countries being wealthier and not under Communist Party rule, the corruption therein is much greater. Please watch Fauci taking himself for Don Corleone of the Godfather, or on Kim Kardashian’s show, to understand better what I mean.

An excellent example of thorough corruption driven by “experts” is Western Finance since the Clinton administration’s repeal of President Roosevelt’s work, accomplished in 1933. That brought the 2008 financial crisis, where the “experts” once again, gave the advice which augmented the inequalities, not to say the inequities…

Another subject where “experts” proved incompetent was the climate. For decades, “experts” pontificated that it would take 5,000 years for Antarctica to seriously melt. So no serious worries were to be had. Yes, a few glaciers could melt. But Antarctica? No! Their erroneously optimistic opinions were thoroughly idiotic, ignored basic physics and the notion of exponential, and supported only by their desire to please their masters.

It was obvious all along to really free and superior minds, that Antarctica was at risk of melting from below, cataclysmically... Because the densest oceanic water is not the coldest.

The maximum risk with the climate is not drowning, which can be survived by swimming to higher ground, but actually, lacking oxygen, hypoxia: experts have argued with me, and, latter the French president, to claim atmospheric oxygen was NOT at risk. Those “experts” in denial tweaked what was known in the most satisfying way, to please their employers (big fossil fuel guzzling governments, typically).

In truth, it is, at least in the worst scenarios one should imagine, and they do not require much imagination: all forests burn, all plankton gets acidified to death from carbonic acid and burned form high temperatures, and then the permafrost melt and oxidizes …devouring atmospheric oxygen (yes we can, I did the computations; “experts” can try to repeat them). But enough with my fertile imagination. Another fact is not pointed out enough: clearly GLOBAL HEATING is EXPONENTIATING. Just look at the graph of temperatures. To help, I traced the exponential by hand, in red:

E X P O N E N T I A L: Clearly the world temperature is following an exponential. Thus presumably, the entire planetary climate… And the “experts” are at fault.

A (growing) exponential has the shape it does because its rate of growth is proportional to its size. In other words, an exponential depicts a phenomenon where the rate of increase of the size of the phenomenon is proportional to the size of this phenomenon. In other words, the bigger the problem, the faster it grows, because the problem itself contributes to its rate of augmentation. The multiplication of bacterial or viral infections are the archetypical example of this… Or that of any uncontrolled population, such as that of Niger (which went in one generation from 4 million under the French administration, in 1960 to 24 million today…)

On December 3, 2020, the Secretary-General of the United Nations, Gutierrez, called the state of our planet “broken”. Exponentiating the climate into hell is part of the problem. An even larger problem is that expertise, in the most important countries, has been captured enough by those with exaggerated power to break civilization itself….

And the remedies are not close at hand. Remedies will go through superior knowledge. However, plutocracy, worldwide dominates truth. The media, worldwide, is owned by plutocrats, the evil-rulers… who have a vested interest of making the planet ever more homely for themselves, that is, ever more like hell.

So what to do? That’s the question pragmatic ones always want to be answered, when one points at the root of the problem, namely a planet led secretly by corrupt “experts” on plutocratic payroll… Press for enormously accelerated research in green hydrogen and fusion hydrogen. (“Green hydrogen” covers hydrogen and derivatives such as ammonia, which can be used for storage of renewable energy; it’s mostly a question of deployment). Also boycott countries such as Australia, the world number one coal exporter. Australia should be the object of UN sanctions, like Rhodesia or South Africa were in the past, and for similar reasons: crime against humanity. Australia is treating all of us, humanity, as an inferior race, not to say species. Some will point the finger at Trump and his rhetoric, but, de facto, the USA’s outrageous CO2 production (more than thrice France, per person) is more hedonistic than greedy, and coal has gone down in the US even under Trump: India and China are the ones fostering coal as much as they can, and they get much in Australia, and plan to get even more. North Americans like big mansions and big lives, while Australia, and also Canada sell as much of their souls, and their fossil fuels, as they can find… Although they live comfortably enough already (much better than India and China!)

Fundamentally, though, the notion of democracy has to be elevated to higher standards (well beyond what “experts” in politics will suggest). So that “expertise” can be re-evaluated. And that means more well informed debate with all involved (thus more direct democracy, isegoria, parrhesia, etc.). This starts with realizing the usual punditry and “factchecking” is itself serving who pay their bills, and mortgages for those big mansions from which they can zoom down on us. The fact is, just as with COVID, there are some countries doing much better than others on the question of CO2 emissions, and this has a lot to do with their experts finding a completely different version of reality, alternative facts, and alternative solutions… We will see what Biden’s “experts” will propose. Solutions go through new technologies… or then regulations enforcing the implementation of new technologies, or technologies which should have been deployed (such as renewable and biodegradable plastics). Right, new technologies do not necessarily work: geothermal energy deployed industrially in northern Alsace has brought earthquakes so numerous and damaging that many houses are now cracked, and the technology had to be stopped on an emergency basis, lest all of Alsace be levelled… And everybody knows that some of the nuclear fission technologies previously deployed have created very inconvenient radiation problem: that can be fixed with new nuclear technologies; the previous ones were deployed precisely because they polluted… the main pollution being Pluto-nium. Plutonium can be weaponized, and that’s why it was loved. We need to have experts focus on something less hellish.

Ultimately, real top notch expertise has to be symbolized by simple, autonomous ideas.

The fact that the world temperature is now exponentiating means that the temperature augmentation is self-feeding. This is an important new fact. It should have its own neural network. Amen.

Patrice Ayme

***

Record Heat: Non Linear World

March 12, 2016

World Global Monthly Temperature Is Blowing Up (NASA data, March 2016)

World Global Monthly Temperature Is Blowing Up (NASA data, March 2016)

Temperatures Blowing Up, As Expected: THE SINGULARITY HAS ARRIVED

(Doomed) Presidential Candidate Sanders insists, correctly, that the USA needs a revolution. So does the world. Plutocracy, its “money changers” (president Roosevelt), carbonizers and political servants have taken over not just the honor of the human spirit and civilization, but also the biosphere itself. Meanwhile the planet is reacting:

Some smart donkeys will point out that this is the year of the strongest El Nino ever. The much smarter ones will retort that, when the planetary warming is fast and furious, El Nino will arrive every year. That’s not a joke, it’s paleontology of the climate.

People such as the present author have long pointed out that nonlinear effects could come in gear any day, launched by the anthropic poisoning of the atmosphere by man-made greenhouse gases. It is basically what happens in a criminal forest fire: somebody comes with a match. Given dry weather, high temperatures, and a wind, a vast conflagration results. As I said the three great Antarctic Glacial Basins could disappear in decades, not millennia. And soon.

This general mess is part of the famed “singularity”. It is fundamentally caused by the nonlinear rise of scientifically driven uncontrolled industry.

What Matters Most Is What Is Happening At the Poles, Where the Heating Is Maximal

What Matters Most Is What Is Happening At the Poles, Where the Heating Is Maximal

At some point this Winter temperatures went above freezing… at the north pole itself. The ice pack is accordingly at the lowest extent, ever. Proverbially, frogs are supposed not to jump, if one rises the temperature slowly. Meanwhile, the porous limestone on which Florida lies will not allow to save Miami with the simple expedient of building dams.

When Obama became president, he fixed the… Bush presidency. An admirer of Reagan, Obama lowered the taxes on the richest, by 20%, because followers of Reagan believe in “trickle down economics”. Then Obama gave a trillion to the banks (“TARP”), which reimbursed the Treasury, as the lying Clinton disingenuously, but correctly points out… Tanks to many trillion of dollars given to banks by the Federal Reserve (another branch of the government).

While Obama was busy saving the class he had been told he joined (and here is your Nobel Prize, boy!), he let the planet burn.

The Obama’s doctrine fundamental principle is: “Don’t do stupid shit!” However, when facing a singularity with a mind of its own, there is no difference between “doing stupid shit” and not doing anything.  Because the most stupid thing we can do is, nothing at all. Even Trump supporters have understood this. Obama thought that, by doubling up on Reagan policies, he would improve matters. Now he has to face these graphs. Like the butchery in Syria, they are his babies. There were holocaust before, a few hundred thousands Syrian dead, is nothing special, in the land of the “religion of eternal peace”, agreed.

However, the cooking of the biosphere will long live as the greatest infamy, ever. And those who wanted power so bad, and chose the worst as advisers, will be forever accused by history. Where is your suggestion to put a carbon tax, Mister President? Too busy asking your plutocrats for money? Cooking the biosphere is Obama’s gift, the change we can believe, because that’s the one we can see.

Patrice Ayme’

Outlaw Carbon Burning

December 11, 2014

Abstract: Uncertainties of climate scenarios from human pollution are so great, and potentially so catastrophic, that the only reasonable course is to outlaw carbon burning. Replacement technologies already exist. We have ten years to catastrophe. This is the bottom line for the world climate talks right now in Lima, Peru.

***

The USA and its dictatorial poodle, the People’s Republic of China, cause 44% of the Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emission in the world.

The European Union causes only 11% of said emissions. The spectacular relative decrease of European Union pollution exacted a heavy price in comparative advantage.

Great Acceleration: World Ocean Temperature Record, September 2014

Great Acceleration: World Ocean Temperature Record, September 2014

Of all excess heat caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, 93.4% goes into oceans. Thus the temperature of oceans has reached new records, month after month in 2014.

The average September GLOBAL ocean temperature marked a record high for that month in 2014, at 0.66°C (1.19°F) above the 20th century average, breaking the previous record that was set just one month earlier.

The American and Chinese economies are progressing by leaps and bounds, greatly from their wild and cheap carbon burning. But the price on the planet will be heavy.

China and the USA are progressing by leaps and bounds, or, at least their plutocrats are: President Xi’s family has hundreds of millions of dollars of real estate, in Hong Kong alone. The climate crisis is entangled with the plutocratic crisis.

Right now, the CO2 density in the atmosphere augments by 1% a year. CO2 blocks Infra Red (IR) radiation. Thus the heat of the ground, instead of fleeing back to space, is blocked in the first few kilometers of the atmosphere (yes it should lead to a decrease of temperature at very high , stratospheric altitude, and it, indeed, does).

The rise of temperature next to the ground heats up the oceans, liberating water vapor, H2O, itself a potent greenhouse gas, which amplifies the CO2 greenhouse effect blanketing the ground.

These are highly non-linear effects, extremely difficult to compute.

Although we do not understand the details with certainty, paleontological records clearly show that high CO2 concentrations are associated with complete melting of the icecaps, as happened, say, 100 million years ago, or during the Carboniferous era.

Yet, in these cases, the changes were progressive, so life on Earth, and the Gaia system of temperature regulation by weathering of silicate rocks, volcanoes and plate tectonics, had time to adjust accordingly.

The change the present human industry is imparting on Earth is too fast for Earth’s biosphere and geology to compensate.

Hence an extreme risk to launch a run-away greenhouse episode.

The argument has been deployed by fossil fuel partisans that all is fine: OK, the ten warmest years on the record are all since 1998, but nothing much has happened. So what?

Well, the climate is the largest system known, aside from astronomical phenomena. Thus, it has extreme inertia. Yes, it barely moved. So far. But that does not mean that an enormous force is not applied to it. When the climate starts to move significantly, from one year, to the next, it will be unstoppable.

Most of the warming will be concentrated in the high latitudes: the tropics cannot get much warmer, but the poles can get much warmer. And we know that this is what happened in the past: there used to be dinosaurs in Antarctica, and Alaska, crocodiles in northern Greenland.

That may sound pleasant and intriguing, but those dinosaurs had evolved over millions of years to handle months of obscurity.

Right now, the biosphere has no time to adapt (some species will, contributing to further imbalance: for example, some parasites are infesting forests in North America, because of the lack of frigid winter weather; the forests then die, and burn).

What to do?

The case of Europe shows that there a price to be paid for expensive energy.

Europe was caught flat-footed: it decided to cut on its CO2 emissions, but that meant cut on cheap energy, thus on industry…

Proof? As the USA produced cheap energy from fracking, industry in heavy duty fields such as chemicals came back to the USA.

Cutting in European industry meant cutting on the economy, and thus on Europe’s place in the world… And thus in Europe’s influence in the fight against carbon burning.

However sustainable energy, at this point mostly solar and wind, are getting as cheap as fossil fuels.

Yet, they cannot replace fossil fuels completely, because they are intermittent, and we don’t have ways of storing massive energy, besides dams. Building dams and elevated lagoons everywhere is not realistic.

Fortunately, we have advanced nuclear energy. Or, rather, we could have it, had we tried to develop it.

Civil nuclear energy has never killed anyone in the USA, or France. (Even including the expensive Three Mile Island snafu.)

Fossil fuels kill at least seven million people a year, say the World Health Organization, which adds that the unfolding climate catastrophe kills already 500,000 people a year.

Denmark and Germany decided to use fossil fuels for base energy (and French and Swedish nuclear reactors; besides Norwegian dams). That’s the energy they need to produce when the winds die, and the sun cannot be seen.

This is not a correct decision: fossil fuel plants cost are of the same order as an Advanced Nuclear plant. That means that they cost billions of Euros. Once built, they, and the whole energy system they are part of, have to be used.

It is crucial to change the attitude relative to nuclear energy. It is changing.

In May 2011, the Swiss government decided to not build new nuclear reactors. The country’s five existing reactors would be allowed to continue operating, but would not be replaced at the end of their life span. The last would have been closed in 2034.

However, by 2014, the grotesque, and self-contradictory coal circus in Denmark and Germany came to the attention of the Swiss. In December 2014, the Swiss government announced that the lifespan of the nuclear plants would be extended indefinitely, with the same thorough controls every ten years, which presently exist.

Switzerland, once again, shows the way.

Let me hasten to add that the design of the Swiss reactors is nearly seventy years old. Although they probably can be operated safely (once taken into account quakes and terrorism), Advanced Nuclear reactors and Thorium plants ought to be developed. Those could be made safer than a wind turbine.

Uncertainties On Sea Level Rise Are Even Greater Than This 2012 Graph Shows.

Uncertainties On Sea Level Rise Are Even Greater Than This 2012 Graph Shows.

In any case, the worst case climate scenario is what ought to enter the political computation, because not only it cannot be excluded, but it seems all too likely. In that worst case scenario, the impact of the greenhouse gas crisis would not be far removed from that of a large comet.

We can avoid this because the three leading non-CO2 emitting technologies: Wind, Solar and Advanced Nuclear are all cost competitive with the cheapest fossil fuels.

Outlaw carbon burning: it is technically feasible, and it is a precaution we have to take.

Patrice Ayme’


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Artificial Turf At French Bilingual School Berkeley

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SoundEagle 🦅ೋღஜஇ

Where The Eagles Fly . . . . Art Science Poetry Music & Ideas

Artificial Turf At French Bilingual School Berkeley

Artificial Turf At French Bilingual School Berkeley

Patterns of Meaning

Exploring the patterns of meaning that shape our world

Sean Carroll

in truth, only atoms and the void

West Hunter

Omnes vulnerant, ultima necat

GrrrGraphics on WordPress

www.grrrgraphics.com

Skulls in the Stars

The intersection of physics, optics, history and pulp fiction

Footnotes to Plato

because all (Western) philosophy consists of a series of footnotes to Plato

Patrice Ayme's Thoughts

Striving For Ever Better Thinking. Humanism Is Intelligence Unleashed. From Intelligence All Ways, Instincts & Values Flow, Even Happiness. History and Science Teach Us Not Just Humility, But Power, Smarts, And The Ways We Should Embrace. Naturam Primum Cognoscere Rerum

Learning from Dogs

Dogs are animals of integrity. We have much to learn from them.

ianmillerblog

Smile! You’re at the best WordPress.com site ever

Defense Issues

Military and general security

RobertLovesPi.net

Polyhedra, tessellations, and more.

How to Be a Stoic

an evolving guide to practical Stoicism for the 21st century

Donna Swarthout

Writer, Editor, Berliner

coelsblog

Defending Scientism

SoundEagle 🦅ೋღஜஇ

Where The Eagles Fly . . . . Art Science Poetry Music & Ideas

Artificial Turf At French Bilingual School Berkeley

Artificial Turf At French Bilingual School Berkeley

Patterns of Meaning

Exploring the patterns of meaning that shape our world

Sean Carroll

in truth, only atoms and the void

West Hunter

Omnes vulnerant, ultima necat

GrrrGraphics on WordPress

www.grrrgraphics.com

Skulls in the Stars

The intersection of physics, optics, history and pulp fiction

Footnotes to Plato

because all (Western) philosophy consists of a series of footnotes to Plato

Patrice Ayme's Thoughts

Striving For Ever Better Thinking. Humanism Is Intelligence Unleashed. From Intelligence All Ways, Instincts & Values Flow, Even Happiness. History and Science Teach Us Not Just Humility, But Power, Smarts, And The Ways We Should Embrace. Naturam Primum Cognoscere Rerum

Learning from Dogs

Dogs are animals of integrity. We have much to learn from them.

ianmillerblog

Smile! You’re at the best WordPress.com site ever

Defense Issues

Military and general security

RobertLovesPi.net

Polyhedra, tessellations, and more.

How to Be a Stoic

an evolving guide to practical Stoicism for the 21st century

Donna Swarthout

Writer, Editor, Berliner

coelsblog

Defending Scientism