Posts Tagged ‘Ukraine’

Just War: Mobilize “Democratic” Military-Industrial Complexes. 

July 3, 2022

“Just wars” occur when submission strategies, such as appeasement, peace at all cost, nihilism, are less optimal for the many, or even worse, for the species’ survival. Some will sneer: they have a higher calling, they prefer to be eaten by wolves. Yet should other people’s children be eaten too? Others will point out that democracy is relative… Yet so is tyranny. Grotesque threats of nuclear war, and, or, destroying everybody, by Putin’s government officials are the ultimate terrorism, and, per se, constitute a crime against peace.

The invasion of Ukraine, an attack of a nuclear weapons brandishing tyrant on a democracy is a world war, with 50 democracies already allied with Ukraine. (By contrast in 1939, only a few dependencies of France and Britain joined Poland in fighting Hitler; the USA applied sanctions against France and Britain for having declared war to Hitler.) 

That world war, long prepared by Putin, has to be won by democracies… otherwise “the borders of Russia never end”… as Putin himself said in 2016. If we don’t invest enough now, in winning this war, that we are presently losing, the price will be much higher, maybe nuclear, later. Putin’s win would ensure world tyrannies as the new governance, with the result of lowering civilizational intelligence below survivability.

Thus, democracies, and their industrial-military complexes should get on a war footing. Putin’s forces have been destroying a lot of Ukrainian artillery, including recently arrived 155mm US howitzers. Artillery is what the Ukrainians need, preferably of the highly mobile variety, as the French CAESAR truck mounted gun… France sent 18 of these guns to Ukraine, and the French army has only 80 left. Although France has more standard howitzers, Russia has approximately 1,100 of them, more than a thousand.

The US, after a few weeks of comabt, had sent to Ukraine 7,000 Javellin anti-tank rockets, one third of its total inventory. As it is, the US makes only 2,100 Jevellins a year. 

This is the situation all over the West, NATO has an insufficient number of (quality) weapons. Ukraine also needs field communications. Putin’s forces successfully jam a lot of them, including the latest encrypted US gear (but not the SpaceX internet satellite).

Ukrainian volunteer soldiers, insufficiently trained and equipped suffer pain, and death. To help them, they need training and equipment. We have to assume, and prepare for, the worst in the evolution of this world war. So doing, and only so doing, this world war will be mitigated… Proper war management here means more effort, and it is not just an economic, but also a moral challenge. There is something such as just war. This is it. Sometimes, those terrible times come back, when making war, not love, is the higher moral calling.

Sad but true.

Patrice Ayme

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The French Caesar gun is very precise, its shells carry more explosives and it goes 50% further than its Russian equivalent. Ukraine was able to hit Snake island with it, forcing the evacuation of its Russian occupiers. These guns have been used in combat in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Mali… It can drive somewhere, stop, fire more than a dozen precise 40 kilometers shots, and then scoot away, all in less than 4 minutes, escaping counter-battery fire. The US HIMARS (HIgh Mobility Artillery Rocket System), now in Ukraine, does even better with great GPS precision. The version given to Ukraine goes only 50 miles, but the original US product could hit Moscow… from Ukraine… (Ukraine to Moscow is only 450 kilometers)

Heroism Needed To Survive The New Revelations

May 17, 2022

Human life is brutish and short, and that tends to make our wisdom brutish and short. However, a way to improve our lot is to attain better and fuller wisdom: even if we can’t make the world better, we can make the wisdom better, and bask in it, content to have achieved something important for us, thinking beings… Not forgetting that human beings have always been combat animals, fighting not just each other, but nature itself, the human condition, etc… and also fighting plain old mental inertia. The end result has been progress, and it has been considerable: in general, our ancestors would readily exchange their lives for ours. 

So a martial spirit is integral to the human condition in full… not as important as love itself, surely, because love is how we get started and instructed originally… But still, human life is not possible without combat, and the mentality to go with it, evolved by Homo over millions of years. Even evil is part of the slightly monstrous human condition, as it plays the role of limiting human impact in such a way that the ecology survives… because, without ecology, there is no human species. 

Humanity is now engaged in the greatest conflict ever. Not just the conflict of democracy and infamy (as with Russia attacking Ukraine). But also the conflict of humanity with terrestrial ecology (the CO2 crisis being only one aspect). This is not the time for whining, but the time for Mars in the service of hopeful intelligence. The time for heroism has come.

Europe has been fearing the reckoning that the time for the ultimate war, the war against mental inertia, had come. With mental inertia disguised as pacifism or brain dead ecology, there is no hope.

Mental inertia is one of the greatest factors of the psychology driving history: Russian autocracy built the world’s largest empire, over seven centuries, and this efficent, relentless brutality, is deeply embodied in Russian culture and psyche. When Lenin killed the Tsar, he killed the monarch, to take his place, with the exact same dictatorial mentality disguised as the exact opposite of what it was, a majority (which is what “Bolshevism” means). 

Similarly, but more recently, mass German culture has long made obedience to masters its prime directive (same as Kremlin based Russia since 1300).

Ces deux-la sont faits pour s’entendre

So Germany needs masters to obey and in the modern era, thanks to who have been effectively double agents such as Schroder or Merkel, Germany has found in Putin a new master…. And said master copies the trick which Lenin, Trodsky and Stalin used, claiming to defend the world against “Western” abuse. (Ironically, Lenin and Stalin, while conquering Ukraine, killing millions, also made it into a republic, to soothe the survivors, and Ukraine became a co-founder of the United Nations.) 

This German mindset, of finding a master to please comes in part from lack of self-awareness. Germany is unaware that German war criminality of the racist type arises from this desire to please dictators. Eighteenth Century Prussia, which, partly thanks to British help, ended conquering Germany, lived off the racist mood it used against Slavs and Jews. Prussia was led by militaristic dictators.It’s the so-called “Prussian General Staff” which attacked the world on August 1, 1914… An attack which was itself a war crime, naturally followed by atrocities in neutral Belgium.   

More than 40 democracies have realized that the attack by the nuclear dictator of the Kremlin, who threatened to turn the world to “radioactive ashes”, is an existential threat to themselves… even more so than German Nazism, and this is why they have reacted so strongly (even Sweden and Switzerland who discreetly collaborated with Hitler when the going was good). This is why these 40 democracies are military allies of Ukraine (whereas in the first year of the Second World War, Hitler had powerful lallies such as Japan, Italy, and… Russia… France and Britain (and their empires) pretty much fought alone (Poland had been defeated by Hitler and Stalin, who turned around to attack Finland).

The present conflict is then the greatest world war ever in the number of participating countries… Those who don’t see it as a world war, don’t know how to count. If the US had given France in 19139, or 1940, the sort of support it is giving to Ukraine, the Nazis would hev been promptly defeated, instead of killing so many and ravaging so much.

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Nazism is the abbreviation for National-Socialism. The real Nazi Party was neither national, nor socialist: it killed around ten million German speaking people, which does not strike me as efficient nationalism, and, far from being “socialsit” was mostly the toy, and tool, of various plutocrats (some in the US, some in Russia, some even in Italy as Hitler himself complained to Rommel… using the word “plutocrat”… adding that he detested having to sit with them and exchanged pleasantries).

Now in some ways Nazism succeeded to bring an ephemeral good life to most Germans, as long as they had peculiar “racial” credentials. That was paid by a moral apocalypse, borrowing money and the future, and also by stealing various minorities and opponents.

Putinism has also made life superficially better for many Russians, yet, as in Nazi Germany, that was paid by augmenting inequality and corruption, expelling intellectuals, rejecting an ever smarter socioeconomy, destroying critical thinking, establishing dictatorship, and borrowing from the future by creating a commodity dependent economy.

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This has become a small planet, and democracy can’t share it with nuclear armed dictatorships. Whether nuclear armed tyrants can share the planet with each other is irrelevant. In this world war, most democracies, nearly all the most advanced ones, are fighting for their survival in Ukraine, and they know it. 

This is indeed the time of the great revelations (apocalypses in Greek). Only heroism will carry us through. The era when heroism is necessary has come.

Ukraine is showing the way.

Слава Україні!, Sláva Ukrayíni!
Patrice Ayme

Caesar was assassinated just before he was going to leave with Rome’s best army ever, by a long shot, to solve the Persian and German problems, in one giant scythe move, mostly from behind. Augustus and his successors did not solve the German problem, so Rome was invaded by Germans. The Franks would solve the German problem over three centuries (~500-800 CE) through a direct assault… Shortly afterwards, by the Tenth Century, the Saxons became the most ardent defenders of Romanitas, and saved Europe from the savage Hungarians…… The Persian problem later became an Islamist problem, when the Arabs, armed with a war like religion, Islam in its Sunni, then Shiah versions, conquered Persia… To some extent that problem has not been solved yet. Caesar died in part because he was seriously too heroic, going into the Senate unarmed, and with Marcus Antoninus (who was held in conversation at the door by one of the co-conspirators… Caesar and MA were redoutable hand to hand fighters).

Was Putin Tricked Into Attacking Ukraine?

April 30, 2022

[The title above was “restricted for diffusion” or “shadow banned” on the Internet; a more accurate title should have been: Was Putin Deliberately Misled By His Own Intelligence Services Into Attacking Ukraine? Shadow banning is ultra modern censorship: learn everything about some brainless celebrities, famous for being famous, who are “trending”, and learn not to care about anything else]

Putin arrested several of his top intelligence officers, for misleading him about the situation in Ukraine. Putin and his top people had been told it would take five days at most to defeat Ukraine. One may wonder if those officers were genuinely in error, or told Putin stories which he did not just want to hear, but also would bring him to launch a war so big that he could not win it. Because that was the only path to regime change, the way those intelligence officers looked at it.

Putin is most vile, but the tyrant is too well defended for a direct coup or assasination: his close guard of millionaires and billionaires are personally tied to him, and some were his accomplices not just from the KGB, but all the way in Saint Petersburg since before Putin became a lawyer! So how to bring him down? By enticing the tyrant to make a terrible mistake by making him believe he was advancing his dream of Russian hyper power while engaging in a war crime he could not fail to profit from

 

Real Russian patriots will resist the Putin tyranny by sabotaging it. Sabotaging a tyranny is what real patriots do, it happened in Nazi Germany extensively and in various ways. Sabotage in its simplest form is lack of zeal… which can show up as “low morale” of troops engaged in combat. 

The most elite, thus fanatical troops engaged by Putin suffered heavy losses during their assault on Kyiv. The same phenomenon happened with Nazi Germany: 50,000 of the most dedicated Nazis died during the battle of France of May-June 1940, followed by another victory less than a year later in Crete, where most Nazi paratroopers died while winning. At Stalingrad, the elite Nazi Sixth Army was annihilated. Too many dead elite Nazis weakened considerably the might of Hitler’s forces, and it was even worse with pilots (who couldn’t train from lack of fuel after declaring war to their ally the USSR).

 

In the grand scheme of things, the nuclear armed tyrannies are an unsustainable danger for democracy. When France and Britain declared war to Hitler in 1939, the latter was not ready. Nor was Putin.

 

So one may wonder about the possibility of the ultimate sabotage: what if elements opposed to Putin within Russia had deliberately misrepresented the situation to Putin so that the tyrant would engage in a war too ambitious for him to win? Indeed, if Putin had concentrated all his elite forces on the Donbas from the start, he could have won. But now most of these forces are severely degraded. Are only nukes left to exhibit some Kremlin tyrannical superiority?

 

Oooppsss… Russian T 72 tank experiencing “tandem” anti-tank warheads. Putin came to believe Ukraine was full of Nazis… thus stupid brutish orcs… it turns out the orcs were his own troops. In the city of Bucha alone, ten Russian soldiers were already thoroughly identified as war criminals. One used to be a firefighter in Siberia…

This is what Deep Machiavellian really means. Now were some US Deep State actors involved into this? Something like that happened in 1914 (Colonel House; maybe president Wilson himself), and in the ramp up to World War Two (FDR, who wanted to own the French empire replaced his anti-Nazi ambassadors by pro-Nazi ambassador to the Reich and UK… He also sent his right hand man… a four star admiral to Vichy). Could it be that Biden was encouraged to show weakness in Afghanistan?… to encourage Putin into believing the US, thus NATO, was scared, weak and senile? Time may tell…

Patrice Ayme

War Tech: SAMs and Stealth

April 18, 2022

Would American aircraft suffer the same losses of jets and helicopters as Russia is experiencing, if they were engaged in a similar conflict such as Russia’s attack on Ukraine?

It depends: the devil is in the details and those who operate them. Everything indicates that the Ukrainians are extremely well trained and very smart. They may be poor in GDP per capita, due to a number of actors out of their control, but they are first world in engineering. Ukrainians are not illiterates from the desert, just the opposite, and have been building their own planes for generations.

Well operated, S300 category missiles can be devastating. During the war against Serbia, a single Serb S300 SAM battery escaped destruction for many weeks, by moving around the country, observing the patterns of NATO planes, and turning on its radar at the last instant. It shot down at least two US planes, one “stealth” …and was never destroyed. Its commander later retired, became a baker and friend with the F117 pilot he had shot down.

Reciprocally, twenty years later, the French air force in Libya attacked ten hours before US SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses), using French Rafales fighter bombers to suppress flak while killing Qaddafi’s armor entering Benghazi. The bombing itself was done by Mirage fighter bombers that the Rafales protected with their active stealth (basically counter frequency jamming).

The action in Ukraine seems to show that high maneuverability of fighter planes is extremely useful. Narratives from Ukrainian pilots show that old dogfighting techniques change everything. Just like the legendary Serb SAM commander, they turn on their missiles at the last moment. Time is at such a premium that some basic commands are just one word, such as the command to get in the plane and take off. 

Another important fact coming out of Ukraine is that the small but lethal Bayraktar TB2 Turkish drones, which seems to have a radar return larger than a Rafale, are hard to spot for Russian SAMs. This means several things: Rafale passive stealth is enough. F35 passive stealth is overkill, especially as it comes while inflicting losses of carrying capacity and lack of maneuverability (a slow going F35 with a giant fiery exhaust will be perfect for Stinger style MANPADs; reciprocally if it does not approach the ground, to avoid MANPADs, it will be ineffective for its measly bombing and fall prey to S300 style SAM).

Unsurprisingly, two months into the world war, Ukrainian ace pilots ask for F16s, F18s, and… Rafales. Conventional, highly maneuverable fighter bombers with plenty of radar absorbing material without reduction of capability.  They do not ask for F35s… (Nor do the Ukrainians ask for Typhoons or F15s… which have their own problems, being too much of high altitude interceptors…)  

Thus the West should augment the production of these highly capable jets. Unfortunately, to please Uncle Sam located in Washington DC, every country in the West is ordering F35s, which, all seem to indicate, would not be very useful in Ukraine fighting Putin’s forces.

Russian Cruiser Moskva burning after being hit by two Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles, in combination with “other equipment” (probably spotting and distraction by BT2 Turkish made drones). The ship later capsized and sank. The Moskva was one of the three carrier-killers cruiser of the Russian Navy. It was also the flagship of the Russians in the Black Sea. Its anti-aircraft capabilities had been used earlier off Syria, and were probably used off the Ukrainian costs, where Ukraine said it shot down Russian superiority fighters in the past… This is the largest capital ship sunk since World War Two (the Argentinan cruiser sank by UK nuclear submarine 200 miles from the Falklands, 40 years ago, was much smaller…)

When the US engaged the North Vietnamese, it suffered heavy aircraft losses, due to confrontation with experienced pilots (some Russian instructors) in nimble planes. Another problem was that the US planes depended too much on missiles (F4 Phantom had no canon, so found themselves in dog fight with armed Migs, while having no weapons). Ukrainian pilots claim they can out maneuver Russian missiles, and in particular outrun them (this is in theory possible with many missiles, given a fast jet, and if the missile exchange start at large distances… F35 partisans mumble arguments about non detectability, but France, for example has long range infrared missiles… And then it becomes a question of how fast can the prey run away, radar stealth or no radar stealth…).

So it may be that the F35 doctrine is another silly idea which has overcome the US Air Force. One notices that recent orders for F35s were cancelled and replaced by orders for F15 (a large, but fast third generation jet).

Not to say the F35 is useless: it could be very useful in some situations, in a role somewhat reminscent of the Growler… But as the end-all, be-all? Big mistake, for sure.

Patrice Ayme

I sink therefore I special… The jets of water in the back are from fire fighting equipment of a tug behind…

Why Putin Will Use Weapons Of Mass Destruction

March 25, 2022

Putin Does As Evil Wants

War writes history. Always had, always will. The war in Ukraine is the largest sort of war, a world war: 141 countries, and all democracies, voted against Russia accusing it of war of aggression, the fundamental crime against humanity ( a legal, philosophical, and UN conviction). The two largest wheat producers are at war, famine has a high probability to follow in many parts of the world, which eat mostly cereals, and produce none or too little [1].

The perpetrator, an oligarchy, is controlling the Kremlin by reinstalling the mentality of its mentor, Ivan The Terrible (no, I am not trying to be funny, Ivan IV is really the hero and role model of Putin’s more cerebral advisers)… This perpetrator has a powerful ally, Xi, the dictator of China. All other autocrats, worldwide are tempted to ally themselves with the Kremlin.

This is a war of democracy against fascism, similar to that of the Greek cities fighting the Persian empire, 25 centuries ago. The Achemenid Persians had established an immense empire, resting on fascism and local oligarchies, from Central Asia to Ethiopia, and the Mediterranean to India.  Greek cities were free and more intelligent: the Persians couldn’t stand their insolence… and the fact that the superiority of their innovations and ideas contradicted the Persian civilizational model. 

The Russian oligarchy has embraced a bellicose ethnic ideology to instigate wars and militarization to distract from its capture of the country, and justify the terror it exerts inside.

The alliance of all democracies is the most powerful, but fascism has nuclear weapons, plenty of them, and the advertised will to use them. Several US presidents ago, the Kremlin dictator developed nuclear armed hypersonic weapons, detectable only at the last moment, making intermediate ballistic missiles obsolete.

Worse: the war against Ukraine was engaged for ethnic reasons, the displayed conviction of a small oligarchy that another ethnicity, a democracy with its own language, does not have a right to exist, and thus should be under the control of said oligarchy. It is rare that the advertized goal of a war is the extermination of an ethnicity.

All Russians are supposed to approve the notion: otherwise they are “scums and traitors”, to be spit out like a gant which comes accidentally into one’s mouth” as Putin himself put it.

So, to justify its war, the oligarchy built an argument which is essentially racist: another ethnicity doesn’t deserve to exist. Whether that’s true or not is irrelevant to the main effect: it makes racism into a virtue, and impells everybody in Russia to partake into evil, thus an accomplice of the evil oligarchy, an evil-power, a plutocracy.

Of course, the plutocracy is in it to gorge itself on riches and power, it’s evil, and thus to become part of the landscape, needs the entire landscape to be evil too.

These sorts of situations have happened before: history is full of hundreds of plutocracies, from all continents and islands. Still now is different, because of the powers vested into just one man. The greatest emperors had armies, bodyguards, secret services… But a modern emperor such as Putin has powers no emperor had before. Some of these powers are cognitive powers. Putin persuaded most of the Russian population, and much of the world, that he was fighting Nazis in Ukraine.

The situation is also without precedent: the Russian government has expressed the opinion that, should it lose a war, it would reduce the rest of the world to “radioactive ashes“. Putin threatened those who interfere with his war of aggression on tribal “with seen never seen in history“.

This astoundingly evil attitude, never seen before in history, indeed, with such a level of demonicity, has predictive value: it makes it likely that weapons of mass destruction will be used.

Putin’s entire vision of civilization, something embodied by the KGB, a direct descendant of Ivan The Terrible’s secret police, is unraveling in Ukraine… Lest, by sheer will, he can call the greatest evil, “never seen before in history”, to the rescue.

Our best hope is a coup in Moscow, and soon. Let’s hope many Russian generals are thinking the same.

If that does not work, and in the meantime, democracies have to stand so firm, resolute and unafraid, that they will leave no hope that the “escalate to des-escalate” doctrine of the Russian military relative to WMDs could work.

Patrice Ayme

One Russian “Large Landing Ship”, Saratov on fire after March 2022 attack, with Ropucha-class Caesar Kunikov and Novocherkassk (built in Poland) steaming out of port of Berdyansk, sea of Azov, after the attack by the Ukrainian army. They were unloading armored vehicles… Another ship seems to have been damaged too. How the Ukrainians did it is not clear…

[1] MENA, Middle East North Africa eats mostly cereals, half of them coming from Ukraine-Russia…

Putin’s Genocide As His Preferred Strategy

March 20, 2022

To the untrained Western mind, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine looks incompetent and idiotic, an undeniable failure. But may be Putin has found a pretext to do what he really wants to do, genocide.

True, Putin’s Blitzkrieg did not work. Ukrainian forces defeated the initial Russian campaign of this war. Putin assumed he could take major airports around Kyiv, and land large forces there. However, the Ukrainians retook the airports and shot down several large transport planes. As armored thrusts were launched deep into Ukraine, they met fierce resistance, while they got cut from behind.  The Russian campaign conducted airborne and mechanized operations to seize Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and other major Ukrainian cities to force a change of government in Ukraine. None of them worked.

Was Putin disappointed? Not necessarily. He may have secretly rejoiced. Putin insisted several times to French president Macron that his invasion of Ukraine, in appearance a failure, was going according to plan. Clearly, Putin was not talking about his plan A, the easy grabbing of Kyiv and installation of a collaborating government. Plan A assumed that Putin’s official lies about Ukraine were true. But of course Putin knew his lies were lies, so he had to be ready for the truth, and have a plan B. 

Putin knows his Blitzkrieg has failed,  but he doesn’t care, because actually, he fell back on a bigger, and, the way he looks at it, even better strategy, plan B.

Putin wants to look like an unpredictable, thoroughly blundering mass murdering war criminal, and his apparent incompetence enables him to do so, because apparent incompetence excuses him, and presents his planned genocide as a big accident. Putin’s bigger goal is to terrify the world into submission, and inure it to further invasion. It is better that it looks as if he stumbled into genocide, rather than to reveal it was his plan all along.  

Surely, some will say, Putin can’t achieve victory now? Well, one could only say this, only if one has not read the nuclear war manual of the Russian army, in conjunction with not properly interpreting the appeasing mood of several major western leaders. 

What counts the most for Putin, as it did for Hitler, or the other most bloodthirsty tyrants, is victory. Victory, for such monsters means destruction of the enemy, whom Putin calls “Nazis”. And the more deaths to get there, the greater the tyrant’s glory and wisdom (the way Putin, and other bloodthirsty tyrants look at it). Putin’s aim is to empty Ukraine.

By going slow and rubbling Ukrainian cities, Putin achieves this. When his supposed opponents claim that he is failing, they provide him, Putin, with a coverup and the time, for his genocide. So one can view the chorus of no-no-fly over Ukraine as much pro-Putin as Putin’s presence in Davos and at the World Economic Forum, for two decades, up to last year, 2021

That same method was used by Putin in Syria, kicking out more than 50% of the population. In Ukraine, Putin already got 10% of the population to flee, mostly young families who have never known the USSR, and who view Russia as a foreign, dictatorial power.

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The Russian escalation strategy anticipates using nukes to apply “fear-induced deterrence”. Meanwhile those weal and simplistic, not to say corrupt, Western leaders have claimed they will do anything to avoid world war three. 

Attacking a nuclear power plant is considered just the last step before a nuclear strike, in the Russian escalation doctrine. And Putin’s force attacked two nuclear power plants with shells and rockets for hours, before seizing control. Using hypersonic missiles of several types is also an indication: the same ones can carry nukes. Russia announced the use of its new Kinzhal hypersonic missile to strike an ammunition depot in Ivano-Frankivsk on March 18.[7] Using such an expensive, rare, and high-end system to hit an ammunition depot was likely signaling and demonstrating intent and capability to escalate rather than seeking to achieve a concrete military objective. The Kinzhal is a dual-use missile that can carry a nuclear payload, and its main interest is that the West can’t intercept it, so it could strike pre-emptively nuclear installations of the US, UK and France. Its use likely signaled Moscow’s willingness to strike with low-yield nuclear weapons in addition to demonstrating the capability to use (non-interceptable) hypersonic weapons.

The theater was clearly isolated from other buildings but was bombed with high precision. There may have been 1,500 civilians inside at the time. 130 came out before further shooting prevented rescue. The pilot(s) who annihilated the theater are war criminals: “KIDS” was written clearly, and was visible by satellites. Reports are that 20,000 civilians have already been killed in Mariupol, where more than half a million Russian speaking civilians were surrounded by Putin’s thugs. On top of that, 7,000 civilians from Mariupol were viewed as potential opponents, and deported to Russia. Mariupol is Russian speaking.

As it is, some in the West seem determined to make a show of avoiding “World War Three”. This desperate denial of reality empowers Putin, because Putin can keep on pushing, by exposing his opponents as willing to cause “World War Three”, and thus Putin gets what he wants, namely killing all those who resist him, who, by his definition, are all “Nazis”… Putin is happy as it is, turning major Ukrainian cities into extermination camps.

Putin can slowly escalate, while killing and chasing off a maximum of Ukrainians, “spitting them out like flies which flew accidentally in one one’s mouth” as Putin depicted his own opponents inside Russia in a speech vowing to “cleanse… scums and traitors”… [1]

In the end, when Putin uses weapons of even bigger mass destruction, will leaders in the West still desperately try to avoid “world war three”? The war that is already here? 

Hundreds of Putin oligarchs spent more than two decades corrupting the West… And nobody is seizing their properties, while the West is sending Putin 700 million dollars a day, so that his factories of evil can build flat out thousands of missiles. Up to last year, 2021, and for more than two decades, Vladimir Putin, dictator of Russia and certified mass murderer, was a most honored lead participant of the World Economic Forum, and “Davos”. 

Deliberate Russian targeting of civilian infrastructure and attacks on unarmed civilians are war crimes. Hundreds of these crimes are already documented, besides war of invasion by choice, the “ultimate war crime”.

Those who appease mass murderers, criminals against humanity, those collaborators of infamy, have not been generally viewed by history in a better light than those they empowered. And the question is: have they been compromised? 

Patrice Ayme

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P/S: NYT censored the essence of this comment, specifically that genocide and emptying Ukraine of his opponents was Putin’s plan. In the opinion of the NYT, to dare say that Putin has a genocidal plan in Ukraine, and that it is implemented is provocative, and outlandish. In 1940, to publish that the Nazis had a similar plan was viewed as unwise at the NYT, which kept as secret as it could the various genocides the Nazis conducted (Poles, Jews, Handicapped, Gypsies, “Communists”, etc.) This enabled the Nazis to implement such genocides (US intervention at the side of France in 1939, or early 1940 would have killed World War Two and its genocides, in the egg). It is hard to believe the refined analysis of the official thought which is only allowed to go through by official media. Maybe I should start with a few insults against Trump if I want to be published by the NYT?

***

[1] “Any people, and particularly the Russian people, will always be able to tell apart the patriots from the scum and traitors and spit them out like a fly that accidentally flew into their mouths,” Putin said during a televised address on Wednesday. “I am convinced that this natural and necessary self-cleansing of society will only strengthen our country, our solidarity, cohesion, and readiness to meet any challenge.”Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov added that people “are disappearing from our lives by themselves…” 

Tyrant Putin’s Safety Mechanisms: Chemicals, Mass Destruction, Nukes

March 17, 2022

Putin engaged in this war because he was sure to win… not only was his colossal army of 3,000 tanks, and thousands of other armored gun equipped vehicles, irresistible, but, should it falter on the ground, Putin would still win, thanks to weapons of mass destruction he has in reserve (some of which, for example neurotoxic gas Sarin, and vaccuum bombs, have been used in Syria).

Unfortunately for democracy, nuclear tyrant Putin has many “tactical”nukes, hundreds of them at the ready, and the West has very few, if any. The West unilaterally disarmed, in a sort of John Lennon peacenik strategy of turning the other cheek… as if Auschwitz had not amply demonstrated the immorality of accepting slaps all day long from lying blood thirsty brutes, and as if Lennon’s thoracic cage had not been pierced by 4 bullets [1].

So if Putin goes nuclear, he wins. At least that’s obviously how Putin looks at it: Putin could use nukes several times, hoping to scare the entire planet into submission, exerting “deterrence through fear inducement (we use Russian nuke theory semantics)… And the West will, or at least, so does Putin believes, just evoke further “red lines”, and shrink into obedience… while Ukraine is forced to surrender. Russian strategy anticipates to wage nuclear war, starting on the battlefield, and progressively “escalating to de-escalate” (Russian code words for the other side surrendering).

Short of this, Russia has other weapons of mass destruction, biological, or chemicals. So-called “thermobaric” or “vacuum bombs”, fuel-air explosives as powerful as the smallest nukes have already been used (Russian startegy considers the largest fuel-air explosives equivalent to small nukes).

At least, once again, that’s how Putin is looking at it: he has plenty of weapons of mass destruction at the ready. And that’s what the West should be ready for Putin to use a whole ladder full of rungs of mass destruction to escalate along, and thus to elevate himself, as a force and will, and that evil he identifies with goodness.

The West is not ready for this, either in its war theory, its weapons, or its expectations. The easiest way to suppress this danger would be to explain to Russian armed forces that the highest moral cause, at this point, is to dispose of Putin in a timely manner.

Hence the importance of brandishing Putin for what he is, a war criminal. Many plots against Hitler by German soldiers failed because nobody had told them it was morally correct to dispose of war criminal leadership… so they often felt morally wrong to dispose of their chief(s) [2].

Russian officers following or a fortiori, generating, criminal orders could very well find themselves jailed for life, after regime change. This is what happened in Serbia, although, like Russia or the US, Serbia was not engaged to obey the justice institutions of the United Nations (ICJ and ICC). The International Court of Justice just ordered Russia to get out of Ukraine, so the invasion of Ukraine is now officially recognized by the UN as a war crime.

The ex-Serbian dictator died in UN jail, and the top two commanders of the Bosnian Serbs are in jail for life.

To come back to the original quandary, what to do? The Biden administration is warning Russia and the world against a possible US chemical attack. That’s good. But I sure hope they prepare a response in case of the usage of nukes…

Because showing weakness, as the Biden administration repeatedly did, entice Putin to believe that a nuke would solve all his problems… and that has actually been suggested on Russia Putin TV (there is no other!)

World War Three has started, but democracy and world order can still win it, fast and on the cheap, as long as we act decisively now. Terrifying Chinese dictator Xi is part of the proper course of action… Hey, Xi may even not be re-elected by his comrades if it becomes clear that he allied himself with a lunatic loser deprived of strategic sense

Patrice Ayme

***

[1] the West used to have plenty of tactical nukes, either US or French… but unilaterally disarmed, eliminating short range tactical nuclear weapons, for example the French “Pluton” meant to break a Soviet armored assault through Germany.

***

[2] This was true all the way to the Field Marshall level. In 1943, Von Kluge, who commanded the central German front against Russia, learned of a plot against Hitler, who was visiting… Ukraine. Instead of arresting the plotters, Von Kluge advised them, pointing out Hitler was beeter protected than they anticipated! (Two attempts were made, the second one a bomb in Hitler’s plane which unfortunately froze… The general who had put it there flew as fast as possible to Berlin to remove the unexploded bomb before it could be found…) Now, if Hitler had been declared a war criminal, and a genocidal tyrant, and denounced to be so by respected international institutions, Von Kluge would have felt morally justified to order one of the many divisions under his command to just move in arrest Hitler… and Hitler and his bodyguards could have done nothing about it.

***

P/S: The essece of the comment above was censored at the New York Times by Helene CooperJulian E. Barnes and Eric Schmitt. This sort of opinion steering is not fundamentally different from what any dictatorship does.

The bloodied corpse on the bottom right is that of a 16 year old girl whose legs were blown off during soccer practice. To all this, the criminals occupying the Kremlin reply that the Ukrainains are doing it to themselves, or that these are sophisitcated montages by NATO, some of them involving professional actors…. A method Russian criminals know very well, as they have used it a lot…

Putin And Hitler Rescuing Minorities: No Lie Is Big Enough

March 12, 2022

Russians are told that Putin is morally superior, just as Germans had been told that Hitler was morally superior. The Nazis said they were liberating oppressed (German) minorities. Putin is following the same method: rescuing Slavic minorities.

The worst thing about Putin’s propaganda is that so many in the West believe it. That turns them into collaborators of Putin. They do not just repeat fake news, false facts, and deep fakes, They also repeat viciously tweaked logic, much of it invented by the cruel and deranged proponents of Kremlin domination influencing Putin, one shaman at a time..

This is a major problem. Social media is inundated by counter-truths such as Ukraine is full of Nazis and not a democracy. Also that Ukrainians have committed genocide in Ukraine, killing thousands of Russophones. They link to fake pictures where Nazi flags have been crudely added. Now some of these western supporters of Putin have PhDs, or are radio hosts.

The French Republic has great experience in war, especially world wars (France spent 10% of the Twentieth Century waging world war). France knows one cannot win a war if one does not achieve moral superiority. But that is impossible if one believes all what Putin and his criminal organizations say. So France banned the Putin propaganda channels Sputnik and RT a few weeks ago, and the entire European Union followed. To end this horrendous war, Russians have to realize that they have been lied to by a gang of criminals who took over their country.

Patrice Ayme

[“Times Pick”]

Russian bombing in Sumy, Ukraine, February 24, 2022.

This Is TOTAL WAR, Appeasing Putin Makes Him Worse… As Happened With Hitler.

March 5, 2022

Only a force greater than his own, can stop a criminal against humanity. Because he has nothing to loose, having burned his bridges with humanity, busy as he is, killing children, the criminal against humanity is in the mood of his victory, by all and any means, or his own death (the latter to be avoided at all and any cost).

True evil is a demonic neurology which feels that fear, pain and punishment, anguish, horror and consternation are their own rewards. Evil carries its own rewards.

However, if, on top of being rewarding by itself, evil bring in material goodies, a plush life, so much the better! So it has been for Putin and his fellow criminals, since 1999. But now they are older, running out of time, thus more ambitious. The top Prussian generals in 1914 felt the same: old and on their way out, it was their last chance to use their wonderful war machine, and leave a mark for centuries to come.

The more successful evil is, the more evil captures the neurology of the perpetrator(s). Evil is a neurohormonal chain reaction. The more successful horrendous criminals against humanity are, the worse they get. The more democracies let the nuclear tyrant become ever more successful, the worst he will get. Appeasing him, hoping he will get reasonable, making him concessions, is encouraging him.

The Secretary General of NATO begged Putin to become reasonable (on 3/4/2022). This weak and uncomprehending character, curiously at the head of a military alliance when he does not understand the first thing military, does not understand that Putin is reasoning on a completely different scale, where the reasons of cockroaches are just all about cockroaches, not about the reasons of those who crush cockroaches.

The nuclear tyrant Putin is coming for you, he is just warming up by targetting civilians, killing little children, setting fire to nuclear power plants… This war where Russia becomes the world’s greatest power for all to obey, is just starting. And in the way that is already true that Russia is the world’s greatest power, because it is 6,257 nukes!

Not fighting with full force as early as possible against Putin makes him successful, hence worse. We had the same problem developing with Hitler, Mussolini, or the Kaiser, a while back… Too little, too late, and too much hope that evil would restraint itself if one behave.

Thus all too many victims of the Nazis tried to be nice to their executioners.

This time what we risk is full blown nuclear war, if we do not crush Putin while his evil has not yet contaminated too many of his servants. If Putin becomes more successful he will make more adherents, admirers and accomplices.

The more the war last, the more Russians will sink with their evil Fuhrer Vlad the Mad into insanity, and criminality. Thus we may get the same situation as with the Nazis, when most Germans kept on fighting precisely because such terrible horrors had been made in their name, and by themselves… By 1944 most Germans knew they had killed the Jews and they had a feeling of collective responsibility, and they grimly kept on fighting because they knew they had taken part in a collective crime.

And when one is a criminal, one may as well go all the way. 11 women raped by Putin’s soldiers have been reported in Kherson (many of the southern soldiers, displaying a “Z” are tough professional soldiers coming from Crimea). Five of these eleven were killed: hey no witness, no bother…

We are strategically somewhere between 1936 and 1940 [1]… But the more we wait, the bigger the nuclear war. If Putin is defeated thoroughly now, he may explode a few nukes, but he will be thrown out.

However, if we let Putin turn his massacre of Ukraine, the destruction of a democracy, into an undeniable military success, Putin will be confirmed in his conventional and nuclear ferocity. He will be on a roll, he will have to be on a roll, for reasons I will explain in another essay.

Wisdom, now, is to go all out. If Ukraine falls, we are doomed.

And what about the nukes? Weak cowards will whine, and tremble. Well, if they are to fall, they were to fall anyway. The last thing to do with a madman who threatens to use nuclear weapons, is to start doing what he wants.

Patrice Ayme

One of Putin’s bombings in central Ukraine, February 2022. Putin has been using bombs over Ukrainian cities bombs so powerful that these bombs have replaces nukes in the Russian arsenal.

[1] If France and Czekoslovakia had rejected Hitler’s ultimatum in 1938, and it had come to war, they would have won. Instead Czekoslovakia was betrayed, and forced to surrender without fighting. Two prominent results: 1) Hitler captured the important Czek armament industry; in 1940, half of the 2,000 Nazi tanls were captured Czek tanks. 2) By 1939, the Russians made official their (previously secret) alliance with the USSR. When Nazi tanks drove into France, they were fueled by Stalin.

Right now, Putin is allied with Xi, but Xi is still careful, because he is not sure that Putin will win. However, Xi’s fanaticized, anti-democracy public Internet opinion is fanatically pro-Putin…. If Putin wins, Xi will constitute with Putin a new Axis for all to see…

Putin Nuclear Terrorist, Escalates All The Way To Maximum Hell. Destroy Him ASAP.

February 27, 2022

Putin declared that, if he faced defeat he would rather turn the world to “radioactive ashes”. Sunday February 27 2022, Putin, accordingly, put his nuclear forces on high alert “special combat readiness“. The mad criminal against humanity keeps on escalating… That’s what criminals against humanity do. That’s how Hitler and his collaborators killed 5% of humanity.

All this was obvious more than a decade ago, and I wrote thousands of pages about how holocausts evolved, and why Putin was an holocaust in the making, the worst of them all. Putin will not stop. That’s why he has to be stopped. The present crisis was born from the weakness of the leaders of representative democracies. Not just the ridiculously weak Biden. Even further back France (and her poodle Germany) vetoed the entry of Ukraine in NATO.

The first mistake was disarming Ukraine’s enormous nuclear arsenal (5,000 warheads) and transferring it all to the Kremlin. This transfer did not take into account the possibility of a madman heading the Kremlin…. When actually the history of Russia is first of all the history of mad dictators, and the madder and the most terrible they are, the most successful, starting with Ivan The Terrible. Ruling families killed each other happily and within. Ivan and Peter the Great killed their sons (through torture in the latter’s case). Catherine II the Great, a German, egged by her mother in law, probably killed her husband the Czar, and then went on, with her lover Potemkin, to conquer Ukraine.

Evil is a side of humanity which is deeply entangled with the nature of humanity. Sadly, humanity, or, most probably all and any advanced extra-terrestrial intelligence, should there be one, could not have evolved without evil. Evil stabilizes the ecology by culling the dominant species.

An example: If Putin kills 7 billion people, he would help terrestrial ecology, as simple as that. Not trying to say that killing 7 billion humans is the only way to help ecology. Civilization, but not Putin, can do better.

We have seen that story before: in the 1930s, all the world fascists united, creating the Axis, invading the Spanish Republic, and then many other countries. Those fascists autocrats and their cronies were initially independent of each other.

As I explained, to destroy Putin, it may be enough to brand him, As Soon As Possible, for what he is, potentially the greatest criminal against humanity. That he did not reduce us yet all to “radioactive ashes” in the style of Martha Goebbels, who killed her six children does not disprove the fact Putin is potentially the greatest criminal against humanity. Ever.

Tyrant Putin produced today a video of himself talking with his Defense Minister, Sergey Kuzhugetovich Shoigu, a pseudo-general. The defense minster breathed so heavily, you could see his chest inflate and deflate. His eyes were clearly coming out of their orbits. His gaping mouth was searching for words, but he couldn’t find them. This was a man, this Putin Defense Minister, terrorized by his boss, obviously wondering what was coming next.

The only plausible way out of the crisis we are in is to get rid of Putin.

NATO should consider itself at war with the Kremlin. If we lose Ukraine, we will lose everything, because Putin will not stop. He went too far already. He has probably already tripled his bodyguard. But all Russians need to know that humanity will be grateful if they do their duty, and that is not to obey, and if possible destroy, the nuclear tyrant.

Putin Delendus Est!

Patrice Ayme

Fail to obey the tyrant, all over the world, and that’s what you will get. Black smoke rises from a military airport in Chuguyev near Kharkiv on February 24, 2022. – Russian Nuclear Tyrant Vladimir Putin announced a “special military operation” in Ukraine … sounding exactly like the Nazis with their special operations and Zonderkommando (special commando in charge of extermination) finally, the tyrant’s foreign minister warned that a “full-scale invasion” was underway. (Photo by ARIS MESSINIS / AFP)

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