Posts Tagged ‘Warming’

Prediction: The Arctic Will Melt Suddenly

September 12, 2018

So far, the Arctic sea ice has melted at a pace which is best fitted with lines. 10.4% per decade, more exactly. It sounds reasonable, in first approximation, to suppose that will keep on that way. However, most changes start, in first approximation, linearly, before fitting higher power curves.

In the case of Arctic sea ice, a number of mechanisms seem possible to go from linear to nonlinear.  For example, the more sea ice melts, the warmer the sea gets, the harder it is to form sea ice. Such a self-feeding mechanism is an exponential.

However, we, humanity just found a huge new mechanism to potentially melt all ice, and it is operative. It is even of our own making! As with the Fall of Rome, one cause leads to others, which then can feed back on the first.

The discovery?

A blob of warm water, 50 meters below the surface of the Arctic ocean. Why does not come to the surface, if it is warmer than the water above it? Because it is abnormally salty, thus denser.

How was it created? The Chukchi Sea has become ice-free much too much of the year. It is just north of the Bering Strait, and lies on top of the flooded Beringia land bridge between Eurasia and North America. So it is shallow: average depth, 71 meters only, and warms up well. The Chukchi Sea warms up so much it becomes salty, and that salty water sneaks north below cold upper waters (it is blocked from going south by the Strait.

The redder, the more heat content in the Chukchi sea… When the Arctic Ocean starts to churn, the sea ice will all melt…Study lead author Professor Mary-Louise Timmermans, of Yale University (yes, a woman) said: We document a striking ocean warming in one of the main basins of the interior Arctic Ocean, the Canadian Basin… the upper ocean in the Canadian Basin has seen a two-fold increase in heat content over the past 30 years.

The researchers traced the source to waters hundreds of miles to the south, where reduced sea ice has left the surface ocean more exposed to summer solar warming.

Professor Timmermans added: This means the effects of sea-ice loss are not limited to the ice-free regions themselves, but also lead to increased heat accumulation in the interior of the Arctic Ocean that can have climate effects well beyond the summer season.


What next? A strong storm, an Arctic hurricane (they happen!)  could push cold waters out, and that would force the warm water up. I would venture to say that this is exactly what happened in August 2012 (generating thereafter the smallest Arctic sea ice ever recorded, by a long shot).

The same will happen again in the future, on a grander scale.

And all the Arctic sea ice could melt, thus warming the Arctic ocean enough to melt all ice, and that in turn, could warm up the ocean enough that summer to prevent the return of the ice thereafter…

It goes without saying that, after the Arctic ocean is ice-free, trillions of tons of methane hydrates laying inside the shallow sea floor will fiercely erupt, freeing trillions of tons of methane. It has happened in the past, and can be violent enough for tsunamis. It is actually already started, albeit on a small-scale, relative to what it could become. Methane is a greenhouse gas with more than 25 times the warming power of CO2 (the “forcing” effectiveness to be a bit more technical). Thus our effort to engineer a man-made Jurassic climate will make great strides. Maybe we will see class 5 hurricane strike Canada?

Fun springs eternal!

Let’s re-engineer a few dinosaurs and pterosaurs, once Canada’s Arctic archipelago is covered with forests, as we are at it…

Patrice Ayme



2014 Warmest Year? Satan Loves It

September 23, 2014

2014 is on track to become the warmest year ever. It is in competition with 2010. As it is, the warming is accelerating: this summer was the warmest. If so, it starts a new trend: warming so strong, it’s all messed up. (I predicted long ago that equipartition of energy applied to greenhouse warming would cause wild fluctuations.)

The five warmest years on record are: 2010, 2005, 1998, 2013, and 2003, in that order. 1998 had the strongest El Nino. Only 2013 and 2014 didn’t start with a full grown El Nino, according to NOAA (USA’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). The latter fact is curious, and tells a tale, as we will see.

Apparently, we experienced the warmest June-August period, globally:

Warmer? Plutocracy Loves It Hot

o Warmer? Plutocracy Loves It Hot

What does El Nino do? It is characterized by a huge blob of warm water, which usually sits in the West Pacific, transferring itself to the East Pacific, by spreading out towards the Americas. By doing so, El Nino brings heat over half of the Earth’s atmosphere. To start with. Then consequences extend worldwide.

Sedimentary records indicates that, during strong global planetary warming, El Nino happens every year. (There have been examples of fast warming before, from natural causes that are now elucidated; the present warming is definitively the work of the present energy system, an extension of the one Neanderthal had, already 75,000 years ago.)

Of the top 10 warmest years on record, 1998 is the sole year that didn’t occur in the Twenty-First century, showing how much global temperatures have risen due to the increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Atmospheric Warming. Oceanic Warming Is Worse.

Atmospheric Warming. Oceanic Warming Is Worse.

2014 the warmest? This may sound weird to denizens of the East Coast of America, who experienced a cold winter. However that cold winter there is directly tied to the Global Warming.


OK, let me go on a creative spur. The following is greatly speculations on my part, from observation I made. Yet I am pretty sure I will be proven correct, and very soon.

What is known is this: Trade Winds off California have doubled in speed. That was so true that hypersonic tests off Hawai’i by NASA had to be put off during the whole month of June 2014, because of said high winds.

Trade Winds go towards the South West, before turning increasingly West. Thus those winds acted like a high pressure system off the West Coast of the USA, deflecting storms there to the north (Canada), and the south (Mexico). Hence a drought in the Western USA, but also a counter to the gathering El Nino (announced with fanfare last May, before it petered out).

Another effect of Trade Winds off the West Coast has been a deflection north of the jet stream, as it hits America. As the jet wiggled back down, after its excursion into cold Canada, it brought polar air with it. Hence the East Coast cooling.

Another personal observation: there was a totally abnormal amount of sea ice in the Svalbard-Spitzbergen area this summer. Everywhere else, except the North-West passage, sea ice was in dramatic retreat. How come?

Very simple: the northern reaches of the Gulf Stream, a set of currents, are supposed to shut down, in case of strong surface melting of Greenland. And that’s apparently exactly what they are doing.

To finish with an aside that was just published. A few years ago, the Larsen B Ice Shelf disintegrated in a few days. At the time, it seemed likely that the grounding line, where the ice stops touching the sea bottom, had retreated so fast, that Larsen B broke apart. However, research, it is claimed show that the grounding line of Larsen B had not moved for 12,000 years.

Conclusion: it is warming of the air above Larsen B that caused the collapse. This informs that the same may happen to other ice shelves in Antarctica. So the shelves may well disintegrate much faster than expected by just looking at the retreating grounding lines. The shelves hold back the huge glaciers behind them.

All this greenhouse gas built-up is happening not because it’s too expensive to fix. In truth, it’s cheaper to fix it, and it would create dozens of millions, if not hundreds of millions, of jobs, worldwide.

Greenhouse gas built-up is happening mostly because of vested interests controlling the planet’s politics. This is the answer to the question children are asking: why destroy the planet?

Destruction, children, is fun. Especially when it profits the few who happen to take all the important decisions. Meanwhile, you, children, can concentrate on the latest iPhone, or Mr. Leonardo DiCaprio’s blue eyes.

Warmest year ever, atmospheric currents all messed up worldwide, Greenland flooding the North Atlantic with sweet, light, icy water, Gulf Stream shutting down, ice shelves disintegrating from hot air, exploding methane cavities in Siberia, how could it get worse? Trust me, it will.

Patrice Ayme’