ROGUE WAVES

 

MONSTERS OF THE DEEP, SUPERFICIALITY OF MINDS.

When we do not have a theory about something, we do not tend to see it. The brain is a born theoretician.

And, sometimes, what we ignore can be severely monstrous. An example is the privately owned public fractional reserve banking system, the monster in civilization’s face, devouring it, as no-drama-Obama, and his colleagues keep feeding it, as if it were the world’s sweetest thing.

For many years oceanographers avoided to concentrate on stories of rogue waves. They preferred to dismiss them as tall tales. Drilling platforms, or ships, were not made to resist to giant waves, since they had been dismissed with a flick of a mental switch.

However increasing severe damage, near sinking and disappearances of huge watercrafts after probable encounters with such waves, plus explicit videos, have focused attention on them:

Are Quantum Waves Subject To Similar Non Linearities?

Are Quantum Waves Subject To Similar Non Linearities?

A giant wave threatens a ship in the Bay of Biscay, France.

In February 1933, the US Navy Tanker USS Ramapo ploughed into a Pacific storm en route to Manila from San Diego. The wind howled at an unremitting 60 knots -force 11- for seven days and the wind field stretched from the coast of Asia to New York, producing strong winds over thousands of miles of unobstructed ocean, lifting the sea into huge 15-meter swells.

On the morning of 7 February, the ship encountered a monster. It came from behind, tossing her into a deep trough then lifting her stern-first over a mountain of foamy brine.
As the stern of the 146-meter ship hit the bottom of the trough, the officer on watch triangulated the wave against the crow’s nest. He observed the crest of the wave approaching from behind just over the level of the crow’s nest while the stern of the ship was at the trough of the wave.
Subsequent scaling yielded the height of 34 meters for the wave, -about as tall as an 11-storey building. It remains the biggest open ocean surface wave ever reliably measured.

clip_image001

The period of the wave was 14.8 seconds and its wavelength was calculated to be 342 meters. Using the wave velocity expression for this wavelength in the deep water limit, the wave speed is calculated to be 23 m/s. The crew of the Ramapo measured these waves and lived to tell about them because their relatively short ship (146 m =478 ft) rode these very long wavelength ocean mountains without breaking the craft. [A rogue wave in recent years broke a hole across a supertanker in South Africa; one came from behind and was photographed on another empty supertanker, washing over the deck, towering maybe 15 meters over other waves.]

[Credits
HyperPhysics (©C.R. Nave, 2003)
Martin’s Marine Engineering page]

In 1995 an oil rig in the North Sea recorded a 25.6-meter wave (using a laser). Then in 2000 a British oceanographic vessel recorded a 29-meter wave off the coast of Scotland. In 2004 scientists using three weeks of radar images from a European Space Agency satellite found ten rogue waves, each 25 meters or more high…

From those radar pictures, it would seem that the giant rogue waves somehow suck up energy from the waves in front and those behind (now they should then quickly disappear, because they should be travelling much faster than the surrounding wave trains, but this remains to be studied and confirmed).

This radar picture shows that there is something we do not understand mathematically (see P/S 3).

***

In February and March 2001 two hardened tourist cruisers – the Bremen and the Caledonian Star – had their bridge windows smashed by 30-meter rogue waves in the same zone of the Antarctic ocean. After the destruction brought by the rogue, the first ship was left drifting parallel to the waves without navigation or propulsion for a period of two hours.  The crew thought that was it.

***

Damage done by a rogue wave.

***

In February 1995 the cruiser liner Queen Elizabeth II met a 29-meter high rogue wave during a hurricane in the North Atlantic that Captain Ronald Warwick described as “a great wall of water… it looked as if we were going into the White Cliffs of Dover.”

Two large ships sink every week in the average, and as many as 200 ships more than 200 meters long have disappeared. Due to the time and location of the disappearances, there is evidence that many succumbed to rogue waves.

Rogue waves are not tsunamis, which represent a vertical motion imparted to a volume of the entire ocean by a (vertically shaking) earthquake, or by crashing landslides, falling glaciers, exploding volcanoes, erupting methane ice, or bolides. These “tsunamis’ (“port waves” in Japanese) travel at high speed (~ 720 km/h), and build up in height as they approach the shore, as their front is forced to slow down by friction, while the rear catches up. The rough theory of tsunamis is fully understood, it’s pure linear wave physics (until the final piling up on a shore, which can reach enormous heights, locally up to hundreds of meters high in the case of exploding volcanoes, as in Hawai’i).

Rogue waves are about surface waves, and there is no rough understanding of their formation. They were considered impossible, because so they are in linear wave mechanics. They violate the superposition principle, as can be clearly seen from the picture below: there is no way one can add the other puny waves to get that big monster:

Rogue wave catching up with a super tanker. Notice how much smaller other waves are.

In the deep ocean, as where the preceding picture was taken, a tsunami would be less than a meter tall, spread over dozens of kilometers, in other words not humanly perceptible.

***

Solitons were also considered impossible. By definition solitons are large solitary waves capable of indefinite propagation and interpenetration. They are not consequences of linear wave theory. The first soliton to be formally observed was seen progressing along a canal by a British gentleman who found the phenomenon so remarkable, that he followed it on horseback, and wrote an extensive report about it.

The real difficulty with rogue waves, besides being flattened by them, is that there is NO general wave theory.

A general wave theory OUGHT to include non linear waves. There is some knowledge of these, with the KdV equation and the modified KdV equation (which exhibit soliton behavior). But these are just scratches on an ocean of frozen knowledge which may be someday ours to navigate.

As Quantum Mechanics used to be called “Wave mechanics”, this lack of knowledge about waves goes a long way to explain why we cannot figure the full picture of what goes on in Quantum Physics. All the Wave Mechanics we have uses linear waves, because that is what we understand. But that does not mean it is the only thing nature understands. As rogue waves in the ocean clearly show, obviously not.

***

Patrice Ayme

P/S 1: What of so called “bubbles” in economy and finance, and the general madness of crowds? Are they somehow related to rogue waves? Probably, but through mathematics that do not yet exist, applied to neuroeconomics and psychology we have not yet conceived.

P/S 2: Re-entrant neurology in the brain explains why the brain tends to see so much with the mind’s eye (this was experimentally observed). This re-entrant organization extends obviously beyond the visual system, and extends to the part of our mind that creates systems of thought. That is why we tend to exclude from observation what we do not have yet a theory for.

P/S 3: Some of the pictures above clearly show that many rogue waves cannot be explained by conventional effects such as constructive interference, focusing, or bore like phenomenon in connection with a current (although those effects are present in nature). Another way to put it is this: there is no general soliton theory (the Korteveg de Vries equation explains some solitons, but there are good reasons to think that it does not explain some of them).

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15 Responses to “ROGUE WAVES”

  1. Leuren Moret Says:

    Large waves can be explained in areas like Antarctica and the S. Atlantic Ocean where very strong currents meet and create large waves, that can be explained with normal wave theory.

    Beginning in 1995, when the HAARP antenna was powered and operational in Gakona, Alaska, the rogue waves began to appear in unusually large numbers, and in places where there were no colliding currents to explain the phenomenon. In fact the first one that was actually measured with a laser, was the Draupner wave, that hit an oil platform in the North Sea on New Years Day 1995. When that wave was analyzed mathematically for 2nd order effects, it was found to be unlike any other large waves that day. It was not a normal large wave, but it was a rogue wave.

    There is mounting evidence that rogue waves are HAARP phenomena.
    Leuren Moret

  2. Patrice Ayme Says:

    Leuren: I am aware of the attempts to tweak statistics to show that waves of much greater height will occasionally show up. But viewed from an energetic point of view, the rogue waves can be extravagantly out of the usual two standard deviations, because they have much more mass and speed.

    I also must admit I have an hidden agenda, because I believe particles are basically rogue waves, so a good rogue wave theory could help the full Quantum theory probably hidden below the one we have.

    I never heard of HAARP before I wikied it just now, and I am grateful I learned something new…

    PA

    • Paul Koszarny Says:

      I am a Fractal Market Analyst and I wish to report that I have found hard evidences of the existence of solitons in the Foreign Exchange Markets and Stock Markets as well. The properties of these waves I discovered match exactly the unique properties of solitons.

      FX markets are fractal and non-stanionary non-linear dynamic systems with inner built memory. Sophisticated methods of the theory of chaos and mathematical topology (Poincare’s conjecture, the physics of fluids and studies of turbulent flow) were used by myself to study the strange attractors generated by the FX systems. The phenomenon of the so-called inner built memory in the system can be shown with an unbelievable exactness. Such systems generate turbulences and those turbulences create non-dispersing and non-interfering solitons which exibit periodic orbits. The memory of those turbulences stays in the system as long as the system needs it. The memory is used by the system to return to the level where the turbulence had begun. It is impossible for any other kind of wave to keep its original shape (and amplitude) as only solitons do not interfere and are insensitive to disturbances a chaotic system always creates. Solitons I find in all time scales. You may wish to refer to the Recurrence Theorem by Poincare which is used to measure the determinism of a chaotic system (DET). The same Theorem contradicts the Second Law of Thermodynamics as the FX system does not evolve towards higher entropy! On the contrary, FX returns to states of order, which means it returns to states of lower entropy which is possible only if there is an external source of energy and there is INFORMATION encoded somewhere inside its structure. Solitons are not just smooth beautiful waves, quite often we observe explosions of solitons out of nothing. I find those exploding solitons are similar in nature to rogue waves observed in nature. Solitons help explain sudden mulfunctions of the system (crash on stock exchanges, crisis), and a severe impact of big names which die due to their default. An artificial thrust of liquidity into the market will not prevent the system from creating ripples, turbulences and rogue waves (exploding solitons).

      Regards
      PK

      • Nikhil Arora Says:

        Hi Paul,

        Can you provide some pointers to study about chaos and solitons in stock,FX markets.

        Thanks,
        Nikhl

        • Patrice Ayme Says:

          Hello Nikhil, and welcome!
          It seems to me that the one field where the study of chaos and solitons is of the essence is controlled thermonuclear fusion (esp. tomahawks, I mean tokamaks, such as ITER). Applications in economics and finance don’t exist yet to my knowledge… Although there is an obvious avenue to study (“bigger” waves go faster, so catch up with smaller ones and get even bigger).
          PA

  3. Leuren Moret Says:

    I am a geoscientist, so I have a good broad science background, but I am not a physicist. I knew by your analysis that you are a physicist.

    “Large waves” have been reported for hundreds of years south of the tip of Africa where the Antarctic current and the Atlantic current merge. These waves are explainable by the forces of the currents and energies in the waves that merge. Those are “normal” large waves and to be expected in such an energetic environment.

    The “rogue waves” are occurring in places where there is no explanation for them or source of high energy to power the wave. These are solitons or standing waves. Research was done at Los Alamos nuke lab on solitons, first by Enrico Fermi just before he died. Then other groups extended and further explained the behavior of solitons, from the early work of the Scotsman in the 1700s and Fermi’s work. HAARP was in its developmental stages at Los Alamos at the time Fermi did his research.

    HAARP is a vast new Manhattan Project, the weaponization of natural systems and processes (geosciences), carried out under the Cold War as a secret joint project by the Soviet Union and the US at Livermore Lab where I am whistleblower.

    Rogue waves coincide with other “testing” of HAARP applications that started on New Years Day 1995 when HAARP became operational. First of all it is unbelievable that they could weaponize weather, tectonics, tsunamis, and the ocean… but there is now plenty of evidence that they sure have. You will never get a straight answer from them, but I have figured out a lot about HAARP because I have a long history of research in earth sciences and know what is normal and what is not normal. I think almost all of the applications of HAARP have to do with economics and making rich people richer and taking out competitors like shipping competitors. This is actually exactly what the nuclear weapons program was about. Nuke bomb testing was conducted to study the ionosphere so they could develop HAARP. The Soviets and the US had drift stations in the Arctic from 1950 to the present, where they did scientific research from research stations on floating sea ice. In 1958 the Van Allen belts were discovered by Dr. Van Allen, and within a few months the Navy detonated 3 nuclear bombs in them – they still have not come back into their original order. The Soviets conducted huge hydrogen bomb tests in the Arctic around the same time – to increase the density or population of ionized particles in the ionosphere so they could study the earth’s magnetic field.

    It’s all right there in front of our faces… we just think its natural disasters… what a clever way to hide very advanced warfare and use natures energy to destroy the enemy.

    Here are 8 HAARP interviews I did that you can listen to. These REALLY riled up the Navy, you cannot imagine how much:

    http://peacinspace.blogs.com/peaceinspaceorg/2008/11/coopradio-haarp-series-of-radio-programs-with-independent-scientist-leuren-moret.html

  4. Paul Koszarny Says:

    As to: What of so called “bubbles” in economy and finance, and the general madness of crowds? Are they somehow related to rogue waves? Probably, but through mathematics that do not yet exist, applied to neuroeconomics and psychology we have not yet conceived.

    Solitons are found in holistic systems. The current mathematics is unable to model them and opponents to a soliton solution use this as a serious argument. The fact is that they refer to some non-linear differential equations and to some known natural phenomena which are true for those problems but which are not universal. It would be naive to seek a KdV equation in ALL existing systems. But because solitons are solutions of few known equations they claim that since no other equations of this nature are known, it follows that seeking solitons in other unrelated systems is useless. I am shure that this is a very false logic and experience shows that we can spot soliton waves not knowing anything about their equations. In a similar manner we spot different trees which are natural fractals. We can unmistakedly spot a birch tree, no problem, but who knows their matrix of iterated equations encoded in their DNA?

    The term “bubble” was created by media. It has little meaning in the dynamics of markets because it gives a false impression that a system can evolve like a bubble. No, IT CANNOT.

    Markets are in perpetual inequilibrium which is not the same as a bubble. The word bubble should be replaced by a systemic problem. The biggest problem which threatens the existence of a system is its inability to return to states of turbulence. In common words, if a market cannot retrace to some price levels in a reasonable span of time. If some solitons are not breethers. It is the essence of life. Markets are holistic and behave like a living organism. All life wants to continue and will defend itself from premature death.

    PK

  5. Paul Koszarny Says:

    Mathematical simulations show that it is enough to have a 3:2 ratio of trend followers versus contrarians to create a very strong trend! a reverse ratio 2:3 does not create a mirror down trend! But a very mild consolidation sloping slightly downwards. Now you may transfer this outcome to the evolution of social behavior like politics, wars, markets, fear, greed, culture, demand, vogue, and think how crowds can be manipulated. How difficult it is to reverse to peace.

  6. Joe Silva Says:

    Hey, thanks for posting. When it comes to credit, many people don’t “get it” (it’s why we’re where we’re at now)!

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