The Age Of War Is Coming. (In Part Courtesy US Oil.)

Yes, Earth’s climate is changing a little bit. Soon it will change enormously, and at a torrid pace. US politicians and their “Democratic” and “Republican” followers are mostly to blame: while North Americans and Australians emit more than 20 tons of CO2 per person, per year, a country such as France makes do with 4 tons (and the UK has collapsed it emissions, down to 6.5 tons now). Listen to the “Democratic” candidates: even the supposedly “anti-war” Tulsi Gabbard from Hawai’i (an intense fossil fuel state), already rejects the responsibility on other powers about doing something against climate change. Says pretty Tulsi:”The United States alone can’t accomplish this“. (Supreme hypocrisy: most of the CO2 crisis was originated in the USA!)

US led inaction is really a splendid spectacle: Trump is rightly accused, however the excellently disguised Obama did the heavy lifting, to further the CO2 production, by pushing for massive fracking (“bridge fuel to the future” he called it). Now the US is back to its usual position of world’s first producer of fossil fuels.

So the climate will change further… and will become ever more favorable to war.  

***

Parthia came out of nowhere, a small kingdom SE of the Caspian Sea. it invaded the Greco-Roman world gigantically. As with Scythia, just north, the Romans proved unable to address the problem. That can be directly traced to the assassination of Julius Caesar. Caesar was ready to kill both empires in one fell swoop. Instead, after his assassination, his army, the best Rome ever had, turned against itself and against the Roman Republic, ultimately pushing Caesar’s great nephew and adoptive son to become “First Man” (Princeps)

In history, there are calm periods, and periods when all hell breaks loose:

So it was between Romans and the Sassanids (Persia). War would erupt, often because the Sassanids wanted Rome out of Mesopotamia. “Mesopotamia” means between the streams, the Euphrates and the Tigris.  

Historically, monstrous Achaemenid Persia had lurched west, conquering Egypt, Ethiopia, and the Black Sea area, Athens resisted, and defeated the Persian at Marathon (while Sparta played). Something we celebrate to this day. Athens then tried to free Egypt, but was ultimately defeated by Sparta as the hand of Persia (which financed the Spartan fleet). So much for Persia always being innocuous. With its accomplice racist, enslaving, human rights abuser Sparta, Persian plutocracy smashed Direct Democracy durably, for millennia to come (and counting!)

Alexander and his father subdued Greece. That happened only because a resentful Sparta stayed out of the crucial battle. After nine  hours of combat, a charge of Alexander and his cavalry against Thebes’ Sacred Band gave the victory to the Macedonians. Thebes was eradicated, Athens was preserved, and then Alexander destroyed the Persians, going all the way to Afghanistan, India. He had to give up on visiting the Pacific.

Hellenistic successor regimes of Alexander’s empire were in turn defeated by the Parthians, who appeared in the south east corner of the Caspian Sea.

The Parthians exerted military pressure on Rome. From the Greco-Roman point of view, those were invaders of the multi-civilizational Seleucids, successor to Alexander. Julius Caesar was on his last day before going to crush them, when he was assassinated (obviously why he didn’t expect the treachery).

By 224 CE, the Sassanids in turn replaced the Parthians. The Sassanids invaded Armenia, Syria, etc. Rome counterattacked, a Roman emperor was made prisoner…

***

Under Shah Abbas, Iran controlled both sides of the Straits of Hormuz. That didn’t last, but the memory of it perdures… like that of Ottoman control of much of Europe, the Middle East and Africa. And, as far as the contributions… the 1001 nights were written in Paris, and the Ottoman made printing unlawful. Right, Francois I of France would send printers to the fire, too, but that didn’t last…

Back to the Present, No Nukes Enforced:

In history, there are calm periods, and periods when all hell breaks loose. Wars between Romans and various Persian empires were separated by periods of calm after major wars.

It’s mechanical: combatants are exhausted, peace treaties are signed, causes of war disappear.

We are entering an age where billions of people, because of climate change, will become refugees. Last time this happened, the climate was also changing for the worse, and the Huns were exerting pressure in the back of all German nations, which tried to flee to within the Roman empire. Gigantic pressure on the Roman border resulted in a breakdown and invasions which destroyed the empire (and much of its economy and population; for example the Vandals invaded and occupied Africa, cutting Rome’s grain supply).

What to do in such a case? The Romans should have projected military force outside of the empire in a timely manner. This is exactly what the philosopher-emperor Marcus Aurelius was doing, when he died (still relatively young). Marcus wanted to create two new Roman provinces, to act as buffer, and domesticate the savage, all too numerous Germans. As Caesar or Augustus, he understood that war was best, far away.

The order of the world cannot stand too many countries with nuclear weapons. Iran is going to find out that even Russia and China understand this (let alone Japan and the EU). There are already too many countries with nuclear weapons. Iranians say they have a right to them too. But those who, in the area, know long term history, will reject that. More than once the Persian Gulf was Persian all around, indeed.   

No nukes?

Yes.

Yes, it will require some efforts. And, by definition, efforts are not always nice. It’s not just a matter of arguing for world government a la Einstein, shooting the breeze, looking good. We have world government. It’s called the UNSC. It’s just a bit messy, right. But better that, than the alternative. Only one way.

No nukes.

Yes.

Patrice Ayme

 

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6 Responses to “The Age Of War Is Coming. (In Part Courtesy US Oil.)”

  1. ronaldscheckelhoff Says:

    I agree that nukes are the most likely eventual cause explanation for fermi’s “great filter” effect – relative to humans.

    Howerver; I don’t think one world government is the answer either. Out of 100,000 governments that have been in place, each for some time (usually of short duration), since humans could use language (OK, that’s probably a ridiculous number, so just assume a big number other than that) – most eventually became corrupt, oppressively authoritarian, incompetent, or just plain evil.

    That we might think a one-world government would be any different is either a breach of logic or a disbelief in the usefulness of statistics. Sure, there would be no war with nation states, since there’d be no nation states, but the government would simply engage in intra-nation-war, rather than inter-nation-war. As usual, minorities would be the hapless victims, guilty of all manner of contrived crimes, for which they would pay dearly, as usual.

    Quantum realm developments will be just as horrible as nukes – but in a different way. People will be mind-killed, but left with bodies intact, via the use of quantum tactics. I’m actually half-serious about that statement. Let’s face it – governments are always about control – and they will exercise that impulse to the maximum that physics or metaphysical intervention will allow. No one-world for me. I want someplace to run to.

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    • Patrice Ayme Says:

      My own explanation of the Fermi paradox is not nukes, but rarity of advanced life from rarity of a succession of miracles. So plenty of habitable planets, plenty with microbes, yet very few inhabited by advanced life. However I consider nearly certain there was life on Mars.

      https://patriceayme.wordpress.com/2013/11/06/40-billion-earths-yes-no/

      We have world government, right now. UNSC.

      Corruption is a problem: I call that the Plutocratic phenomenon. President Xi of the PRC is using this as his main claim to the application of ferocious power, right now… He arrested the Interpol Chief… Fact is nearly all governments right now are arguably less corrupt than at any time before…

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  2. Gmax Says:

    I guess that’s a family of essays. Benign didn’t get at all the one on the smart bogging down wars. Bogging down the other side, that is. What you drive at is that war is the hardest fact around. Also there are rather good guys and pretty bad ones.

    Also, right, if the god crazed out maniacs in Iran stay on their collision course, there will be war, and better that than nukes all over

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    • Patrice Ayme Says:

      My point is that the so-called “left”… The “left” doesn’t understand that endless wars can be better than alternatives. And also that some wars look like failures, but are stealth successes. Afghanistan is one such: It was devised to prevent Eurasian powers to splurge… Helping US to stay in control of various minerals.

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  3. ianmillerblog Says:

    One could argue Obama did the best he could to keep Iran nuke-free, and from what I gather, the Iranians did comply in all ways with the agreement. For a while, we had a real chance of a “no-nukes Iran”. However, Trump pulled out of that deal because he wanted more, and at the very least Bolton provides a good reason for the Iranians to suspect US intentions. If the US wants war with Iran, then it will win to the extent it will blow stuff up – Iran cannot defend against that – but is the US prepared to pay the price for what follows?

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    • Patrice Ayme Says:

      Dear Ian: You depict well the first order description. But the Iranian theocrats agreed only because the accord didn’t bind them too much. Within 4 years from now, they could have done whatever. But that whatever is out of the question for Israel, Arabia, and NPT fanatics, such as yours truly.

      There is always a price. In 1936, France didn’t want to pay the price of the conflict with the UK and US which would have followed attacking Hitler.
      Right now, fortunately, UK and France are behind the USA on the NPT… And I think the Iranians are overestimating Russian and Chinese solidarity with the islamist Fundamentalism they embody…

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