Corona Chronicle: 11% Death Rate Or 1%? Yes And No.

How to reconcile the observed 10%+ death rate observed, and which I have brandished, and what scientists have told us is going on: 1% death rate? It’s clear where I got the number: 

CLOSED CASES

102,311

Cases which had an outcome:

90,942 (89%)

Recovered / Discharged

11,369 (11%)

DEATHS

These are the graph, in logarithmic form: a doubling means multiplied by ten. One can see strikingly the incompetency of European Leaders. They led so well, they should be led to prison, next.

Now of course very honorable, greatly decorated, well respected, and highly paid scientists have interest to say what pleases their overlords: overlords are more pleased by a 1% death rate than an 11% death rate. But still established establishment scientists should have a sort of reasoning, aside from the self-recognized greatness of their splendor, no? 

They do!

What they do is look at ONE “International Conveyance”, the “Diamond Princess”, anchored at Yokohama, the enormous port immediately south of Tokyo, for a month or so. The Diamond Princess had 712 COVID 19 cases… and 8 (eight) deaths. They forget to tell you (or themselves!) that there are still 14 critical cases (one critical just died today). Also all and any cases were detected, including the mild cases. But, more crucially, the Diamond Princess passengers got treated by one of the very best healthcare systems in the world, Japan’s, in a situation where that system could fully bear all its power on 712 cases. In other words, Japan was not overwhelmed: it has a total of 913 cases (aside from the 712 from the DP), giving it a rate of eight cases per million. By comparison, Italy has a rate of 778 cases per million, and is completely overwhelmed, with 727 deaths in the last 24 hours period.  

What is happening in Italy, as what happened for a while in Wuhan, is that the medical system stop functioning when too many doctors fall sick (more than 2,000 in Hubei… But China could draw on resources from the rest of China: Hubei, 60 million, is not even 5% of China…

So an 11% death rate from COVID19/SARS2 is what one gets, when healthcare systems get overwhelmed. And no, sad clown Pluto Biden, it doesn’t have to do, as you explicitly pretended, with the fact China and Italy have “Medicare For All”.  

In one week, from one flu patient, without confinement, one gets, on average, 9 contaminations. With SARS2/COVID19: 45 contaminations. So the SARS2 exponential grows much faster. The only safe method to block the pandemic is to duplicate what China did, in particular in Hubei: total confinement, except for essential services.

The head of healthcare in Wuhan, the city of eleven million inhabitants at the core of the epidemic went to Milan, Italy, to provide advice (I think his predecessor died). He said confinement in Italy was insufficient; he was shocked to see public transportations still operating.

In South Korea, hyper testing was accompanied by giving the detail of each death. A phone app enables citizens to track the displacement of quarantined individuals in their neighborhood… thus enforcing the quarantine, and avoiding “superspreaders”.  Under current guidelines from the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, anyone who has come into contact with a confirmed coronavirus carrier is subject to a mandatory two-week self-quarantine. “Contact” is defined as having been within two meters of a confirmed carrier, or having been in the same room where a confirmed patient has coughed.  

I warned that the pandemic, should one do nothing, maybe in the hundreds of millions. Of course, something will, and is being done, very strongly now, by many governments. 

Good. But precious time, and probably dozens of thousands of deaths, could have been prevented, had one used the wisdom of the past… For example in 2003, when Toronto tracked right away 30,000 potential carriers of SARS. 

This pandemic was rendered possible by criminally negligent power brokers, or so-called “leaders”, many of them anxious to sell their stocks while pretending SARS was just a cold. For a while, France and Great Britain, among others, decided to opt for a “herd immunity” strategy, showing that, deep down inside, Johnson and Macron should be prosecuted, just as Pericles was. That was out of sheer ignorance of the property of this virus. Surely the responsible authorities should go to prison for a very long time, no?

Patrice Ayme

Tags: Coronavirus