Archive for the ‘Catastrophe’ Category

Global Sea Ice Collapsing: Carbon Tax!

January 7, 2017

Any linear process, pushed too far, will become non-linear. This is true in psychology, as it is in imploding stars. (It is even true in Quantum Physics, where it used to be called “collapse” and now is called “decoherence”, because “collapse” did not sound too good, probably… Actually the switch from linear to nonlinear, is the greatest mystery of the Quantum; we will massage it below, with an ominous message, naturally…) And it is obviously true for the climate. Climate change can be slowly and steady (it took 35 million years to cool the dinosaurs into extinction, although the end of the process was nonlinear…) Climate change can also be extremely brutal, on the orders of years, not millions of years (contemplate the Younger Dryas, dramatic, extremely brutal glaciations which lasted no more than a millennium, the most spectacular being 18,000 years ago).

This is a complicated world. We are its gods, and we are warming up the party. Global sea ice is the sum of sea ice, worldwide, mostly found in the Arctic and Antarctica. It is suddenly collapsing. Yes, global ice fluctuates with the seasons. Yet, consider this graph:


Catastrophic Collapse Inevitable. Any linear process, pushed too far, will become non-linear.

Catastrophic Collapse Inevitable.

Just invert that graph, transforming the ice collapse into sea rise: this is what is going to happen. And not in 5000 years, as corrupt scientists have hopefully suggested. No: it could start to happen in 2017. And it will certainly start very soon, in the lifetime of existing politicians.

How did these scientists get corrupt? By hope and inertia: good jobs are given to those with good news, however fake those “news” may be. Especially if said good “news” reinforce the existing establishment. There was actually nothing new in claiming that Greenland and Antractica would stay covered with ice. It was actually old news.

There was no reason, whatsoever, to think that the giant ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica would stay stable under enormous warming. (Whereas global air warming is only 1.2 Centigrade above the baseline, warming in polar regions is several times this. This fact is explainable by logic alluded to below.)

However, there were excellent reasons, excellent because they were very simple, to believe they were not going to stay stable. I have found them, and exposed them on this site. Two reasons are most prominent.

One I could call that the permafrost argument: as temperatures shift up, by a few degrees Centigrade (= Celsius), the permafrost line has to travel hundreds of kilometers north, or south. As it does, ice sheets melt.

However, and this is the second major reason, ice sheets, which are up to four kilometers thick, exert a pressure of 4,000 tons per square meter (that means roughly 40,000 tons over the footprint of a car). The ice sheets thus press the continents down by thousands of meters, so warm water will slip below the ice, falling all the way underneath, and the disintegration will be brutal. (Such brutality has been caught on film.)

I am struggling with an essay which demonstrates why Obama wanted Trump elected (and how he accomplished this). Not easy to explain to those who cling to a simpler world (so the work is still in progress). Yet there is a first lesson therein:that our world has become so complicated, so poorly organized, and so dangerously managed, and our powers so great, that a single individual’s brain structure impacts significantly the biosphere.

A case in point is Kim of North Korea: a certified maniac who rules the world by instilling respect for his own insanity (he claims to be developing a nuclear “deterrent” by being able to throw nuclear bombs at any country, anywhere.)

So what’s up with the ice? Sea ice depends upon a cold sea. Ice on top of the sea, or land, throws back sunlight like a shield, back to space, before photons can dig in the ground, or the ocean, and deliver in the depths their momentum-energy, raising the agitation, thus temperature there. Once the ice cover is gone, photons can heat up the depths. Normal temperature measurements which make headlines are just about air temperature, a meter off the ground. They are not about the rise of temperatures of the depths.

If, at some point the rise of temperature of the depths becomes to great to allow ice or snow cover in winter, ground, or ocean temperature is exposed to photons, thus heat, even in the cool season, and a vicious circle, a different regime, starts.

The transition does not have to be smooth. In Quantum Physics, a system can “tunnel” between a local minima, and another, even lower (this is “classically” not allowed). So will object that climatology is a “classical” system. And they are obviously wrong: this is the famous paradox of the hurricane started by a butterfly’s wings. Ultimately, Quantum systems decide of everything: if zillions of Quantum systems switch to a lower energy state together, we have a “classical” transition.

Thus, the climate of the entire planet will LURCH to a different state. The collapse of global sea ice is an early indicator of the incoming catastrophe (reminiscent of when some temperature indicators went up inside the left wing of the Space Shuttle Columbia; by then, Columbia was doomed; in our case, we are not doomed terminally: we will be more or less doomed, depending upon how we react now).

This happened countless times in the past: the AMOC (or Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation), is the planet’s most significant current: it enables the Gulf Stream to go warm-up Europe gently. However, sometimes, it gets cold before making it to Iceland, and drops to the sea bottom, 6,000 meters down, short of the entire north-east corner of the Atlantic.

As it does in the fictional and exaggerated movie “The Day After Tomorrow”, when the AMOC brutally changes (this we know, for a fact explained mysterious flash freezes in the past, more than 10,000 years ago).

Actually my own position is more subtle: I do not expect a brutal glaciation in Europe, as when the AMOC lurched last, because there is plainly not enough easily liquefiable cold in the Arctic. However, I expect something way worse: brutal sea level rise, in the tens of meters. My reasoning is terrible in its brutal simplicity: warm oceanic water will slip underneath, and then fall thousands of meters below the ice sheets. Yes, below. For more details, please read:

Warm winds on top will not help, and have already disintegrated major ice shelves in days (like four days: by happenstance, measuring instruments caught the disintegration of a major ice shelf, ten years ago: it was immediately preceded by a four-day, 16 Celsius (62 F) wind storm (with hurricane winds). Said winds are of course augmenting. Because of thermodynamic effects, extremely warm winds can occur even in July, in the heart of Antarctica’s winter, bringing temperatures up by 40 Celsius (from minus 30 C to plus 10 C), vaporizing the snow cover (winds are augmenting all over the planet, as more energy is pumped into the biosphere).

The Obama administration did precious little about the developing climate catastrophe (his own administrator just testified in Congress that Obama administration policies had an impact of .01%; even the much derided governor Perry from Texas did much more, by transforming the One Star State into a large wind farm!)

Trump could do much more, by killing two birds with one stone. He could do what Obama and the establishment which used him as a puppet, did not dare do. Mostly because they are very serious, respectable people getting their power from even more serious, more respectable people.

Set-up a worldwide carbon tax. Europe will cooperate: several European countries already have carbon taxes, all tax gasoline and diesel at enormous rates. It happens that, under Obama, the US government was selling the best coal in the world, five times below cost (a Science Magazine lead article detailed this in December 2016; I planned to write an essay on it, but did not find the time-energy…). That dragged all coal prices down, worldwide, and was an anti-carbon tax.

By lifting that best-coal price in Federal lands, thanks to a carbon tax, Trump would bring coal prices up (thus momentarily helping the coal miners who voted for him).

Such is the way. There is no alternative (slogan of the stupid Thatcher!). Of course, there is so much inertia in the system, a rise of three degrees Centigrade is guaranteed, and coastal cities will have either to be evacuated, or sit behind ten stories tall levees…

Anyway, let climate skeptics munch on the graph on top. Brutal floods are a historical fact. Sumerian civilization was drowned in a sudden flood. And yes, it was man-made, we understand this now. 43 centuries ago, the most advanced civilization, or, more exactly, one of the roots of what would become the most advanced civilization (ours) was wiped out in a matter of days, by a man-made cataclysm.

Meditate that.

Meditation is the noblest pursuit of humanity. Or, at least, the one activity which characterizes humanity best.

Patrice Ayme’


Of Nukes, Dogs, North Korea, & Necessary Evil

May 28, 2016

KIM, THE HEREDITARY KING OF NORTH KOREA, MAKES A NEW NUCLEAR H BOMB EVERY SIX WEEKS. His engineers are trying to build reliable intercontinental missiles. The fear of a heat wave in Los Angeles will take a whole new meaning soon. (And what did the president do about this security problem? Less than Bill Clinton. Oops.)

Kim Jong Un killed entire “groups” of people in his own family, including his uncle, who was instrumental to get him to power: “the discovery and purge of the Jang group… made our party and revolutionary ranks purer…”[117 In 2015, the defence minister was executed by anti-aircraft fire, for “talking back”.

Certainly the uncle was arrested, humiliated, and executed. “Despicable human scum…worse than a dog” is how North Korean state media described the once-powerful uncle of leader Kim Jong-un. It was claimed that Jang Song Thaek admitted trying to “overthrow the state”.

Kim & Wife: Expensive Dior Purse. Feeding People To Dogs. Not Yet Personally On The Menu.

Kim & Wife: Expensive Dior Purse. Feeding People To Dogs. Not Yet Personally On The Menu.

Speaking of dogs, four star general Jan Song Thaek, once thought to be the most powerful leader in North Korea, was stripped naked, with five colleagues, thrown into a cage, and eaten alive by a pack of ravenous dogs… according to a newspaper close to China’s Communist Party. The dogs had not eaten for five days, and the execution lasted an hour. In the end, the dogs cleaned the plate. (Others said that he was executed by machine gun.)

Whatever the rumors, higher-ups in North Korea, and their families, have been executed in large numbers. Differently from Stalin, Kim does not even bother with the appearances of fake trials. Yesterday’s horrors have become quaint.

Kim has gone to the furthest, darkest side. Supremely educated in Switzerland, the North Korean dictator knows all too well that any reason too removed from the law of the jungle, would be his demise. The North Korean leaders have long made Switzerland their central access point (say to the French Riviera and French medical treatments).

With North Korea, the world is confronted with the Hitler problem, not just an uneducated immigrant loser, of the most modest origin, but with someone who is immensely rich, a proven killer, close, personal, whimsical, well-educated and in command of weapons Hitler could not even dream of.

If Kim has the choice between being eaten alive by dogs and threatening, or starting, a nuclear war, he will, of course, chose the latter. Indeed, people who brought him up have explained he was definitively a brat, even as an eight year old (see the Washington Post report of May 27, 2016).

Unfortunately, the only reasonable prospect, then, is for democracies to prepare for what Kim is, namely, the worst: very clever, and very nasty. And that reasoning with him will not help. This is clearly a case where the strongest, darkest means are required.

We have to dial back to 1935, and ponder another crazed, demonic dictator, Hitler (who had just consolidated power with an accord with the German army making him Chancellor and President).

What should have been done with Hitler? What should the democracies have done? Now we know, with today’s mentality and morality: going all out against him.

(But the sordid truth is that it was in the best national interest of the USA to proceed with Nazism and the Second World War… just as it was to have Jefferson and Jackson massacre the Indians, steal their lands, and quintuple the area of the US… Agreed, the USA has changed: the collaboration of the US with Hitler could happen, and did happen, because of the mentality reigning then).

So let’s reconsider Hitler 1935 with today’s mentality: let’s do as if we wanted to avoid World War Two, the death of 5% of humanity, and serious fears, threats, hardships and problems for much of the rest.

Before I come to what to do, we have to remember that this time the stakes are much higher: Kim intents to use nuclear blackmail, with intercontinental missiles aimed at the largest cities of the West. Kim’s government said as much last year, he will do it again, and, this time, with power to back him up.

North Korea, right now is the Nazi Reich, in a potentially even worse version, but this time, we know the program ahead of its attempted implementation, through vast annihilation of uncountable multitudes. Insane? Sure. That’s the entire point, and that is why Obama could not handle it. Obama, fed on a steady diet of Financial Times and University of Chicago, believe people are rationally greedy. But of course, there is much more to humanity than that: the Will to Extermination, for example. The Will to Extermination is a gift: like playing tennis, it can be developed to a fine art, through enough practiced. Kim had plenty of practice (just as Hitler did).

So what to do? Forget the sanctions against North Korea as a plausible long-term solution: that would be about reason. Kim is not about reason (and he can leverage China, as his family long did). Get ready for war. Nuclear war. Or then target Kim and do away with him. There is a precedent for the latter.

In 1938, Hitler’s generals approached British and American diplomats and authorities, asking their governments to declare that they would stand with France in irremediable opposition to Nazi Germany. Then, they explained they would make a coup against the Nazis, arguing that Germany was in danger. Something similar done against Kim is what should be done now.

In 1938, the British and American governments not only did not do what the German generals had asked them to do, but they warned Hitler of the plot against him. (However, Germany had been a democracy just prior, and, even under the Kaiser, was a softer sort of fascism).

Let’s learn from history; let’s not repeat history. Time for a dark and dirty vaccination. To prevent incomparably worse.

The nuclear poker of Truman on August 6, 1945, worked: Japan capitulated within 6 days. The nuclear bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were moral sacrifices. However, what Kim prepares for us all, until he dies, is worldwide nuclear blackmail. Kim is only 33. And North Korean geology is very wealthy. Is that how we can live? (Kim already threatened to nuke Los Angeles and New York).)

Kim’s threats with nukes call for the darkest side… to remedy the situation. Morality comes from sustainability (that’s shown both by etymology and logic). Is a world where a few rendered insane by cruelty, fear and rage are armed with nuclear weapons sustainable? No.

Obama, and countless pacifists in the last 71 years have said they wanted to get rid of weapons of mass destruction. However, we need first to get rid of those who want to mass destroy, and that means destroying the mentalities conducive to this sort of concentration of power.

Meanwhile, the only sane, let alone moral, thing to do is to acquire military technological superiority.  Eight years ago, Obama said that Pakistani nukes were his number one worry. Rogue Pakistani Muslim supremacy and greed supreme scientists helped North Korean nukes. As president, Obama undermined the safety of the world, because he actually helped the North Korean dictatorship, and is still actively doing so.

How? By demolishing the US high-tech innovation system by fostering tech private tech monopolies. The latest example is his latest change in the laws directing the US Patent and Trademark Office. New laws guarantee that people and corporations who gave Obama big money will be favored. So what will suffer? Real innovation. And what will make democracy sustainable? Real innovation.

Hitler happened in a worldwide mental ecological system. So does Kim, and Islamism, and global plutocracy, of course. These are all examples of the rule of demonicity (plutocracy).

Ultimately, anything which favors plutocracy here,  favors plutocracy there. Such as all the colossal, blatant advantages given to those who financed Clintons, Obama and Bushes (from the Koch brothers, to the Spy Network booking your face). The North Korean dictatorship, Putin, the Islamists, and all the powerful rotten ones around the planet feel this, know this, see this, and play it like a violin.

Those “leaders” grabbing all the levers of power are not demented, they are not crazy, they are not sick, they are opportunists. And the opportunity of power, not to say power itself, has transformed them, neurohormonally, and perhaps even epigenetically (we know this happens in fishes, so why not in humans: are we not more sophisticated than fishes?) What they call reason, sustainability calls insanity: a nuclear strike on Los Angeles, successful or attempted, would make North Korea into a radioactive desert. The “leaders”, all over, have more power than ever, are more corrupt, therefore, than ever, and have become, more than ever, monsters made to rule, by all and any ways they can access.

It is for a new moral code invented by We The People to bar this sort of access to evil. “Equality” in “Liberty, Equality, Fraternity”, is not just a matter of the pursuit of happiness, but of the pursuit of survival. Of humanity as a species.

Patrice Ayme

Record Heat: Non Linear World

March 12, 2016
World Global Monthly Temperature Is Blowing Up (NASA data, March 2016)

World Global Monthly Temperature Is Blowing Up (NASA data, March 2016)

Temperatures Blowing Up, As Expected: THE SINGULARITY HAS ARRIVED

(Doomed) Presidential Candidate Sanders insists, correctly, that the USA needs a revolution. So does the world. Plutocracy, its “money changers” (president Roosevelt), carbonizers and political servants have taken over not just the honor of the human spirit and civilization, but also the biosphere itself. Meanwhile the planet is reacting:

Some smart donkeys will point out that this is the year of the strongest El Nino ever. The much smarter ones will retort that, when the planetary warming is fast and furious, El Nino will arrive every year. That’s not a joke, it’s paleontology of the climate.

People such as the present author have long pointed out that nonlinear effects could come in gear any day, launched by the anthropic poisoning of the atmosphere by man-made greenhouse gases. It is basically what happens in a criminal forest fire: somebody comes with a match. Given dry weather, high temperatures, and a wind, a vast conflagration results. As I said the three great Antarctic Glacial Basins could disappear in decades, not millennia. And soon.

This general mess is part of the famed “singularity”. It is fundamentally caused by the nonlinear rise of scientifically driven uncontrolled industry.

What Matters Most Is What Is Happening At the Poles, Where the Heating Is Maximal

What Matters Most Is What Is Happening At the Poles, Where the Heating Is Maximal

At some point this Winter temperatures went above freezing… at the north pole itself. The ice pack is accordingly at the lowest extent, ever. Proverbially, frogs are supposed not to jump, if one rises the temperature slowly. Meanwhile, the porous limestone on which Florida lies will not allow to save Miami with the simple expedient of building dams.

When Obama became president, he fixed the… Bush presidency. An admirer of Reagan, Obama lowered the taxes on the richest, by 20%, because followers of Reagan believe in “trickle down economics”. Then Obama gave a trillion to the banks (“TARP”), which reimbursed the Treasury, as the lying Clinton disingenuously, but correctly points out… Tanks to many trillion of dollars given to banks by the Federal Reserve (another branch of the government).

While Obama was busy saving the class he had been told he joined (and here is your Nobel Prize, boy!), he let the planet burn.

The Obama’s doctrine fundamental principle is: “Don’t do stupid shit!” However, when facing a singularity with a mind of its own, there is no difference between “doing stupid shit” and not doing anything.  Because the most stupid thing we can do is, nothing at all. Even Trump supporters have understood this. Obama thought that, by doubling up on Reagan policies, he would improve matters. Now he has to face these graphs. Like the butchery in Syria, they are his babies. There were holocaust before, a few hundred thousands Syrian dead, is nothing special, in the land of the “religion of eternal peace”, agreed.

However, the cooking of the biosphere will long live as the greatest infamy, ever. And those who wanted power so bad, and chose the worst as advisers, will be forever accused by history. Where is your suggestion to put a carbon tax, Mister President? Too busy asking your plutocrats for money? Cooking the biosphere is Obama’s gift, the change we can believe, because that’s the one we can see.

Patrice Ayme’

“State Doping” And Corruption Generalized

November 9, 2015

Corruption is a mood. When it becomes obvious at the top, for all to see, it spreads through all of society. Corruption is not just about money, or bartering of power, tit 4 tat, but also about habituating oneself 2 violate reason, emotion, decency

The historian Gibbon viewed Rome under the Antonine emperors as the eternal city’s greatest century. So doing, Gibbon made the same mistake as all Roman thinkers we know of, made at the time. Rome, in truth, was a fascist military regime drunk with corruption. Gibbon lived in a similar, yet newer and improved, regime in Great Britain. Said improvements enabled Britain to established a spectacular empire. Because of the similarities with the plutocracy he flourished in, Gibbon could only sing the praises of Second Century Rome. If he had not sung them, nobody would know the book he wrote.

Only a few people chosen by the fate of force took all the decisions in imperial, fascist Rome. Thus, unsurprisingly, those decisions were dumb. When Rome had been a Republic, many took the decisions, after huge debates. Thus they were excellent and Rome conquered the world.

Red: Up To 5 Celsius Above Average. Cold Around Antarctica Caused By Sweet Melting Glacier Water Coming To Surface

Red: Up To 5 Celsius Above Average. Cold Around Antarctica Caused By Sweet Melting Glacier Water Coming To Surface

Nowadays, if we look at the bright side of things, we are not in such a bad position: the debates on the Internet may save us. Our clueless, corrupt and greedy leaders will not. Yet, if we look at the bad side, the situation is much worse. Rome declined because she was deranged, mentally sick, senile, the property of a few, physically sick, polluted, out of resources, out of her wits, out of time, riddled with corruption. Yet, these maladies were confined to Rome. The Barbarians, taught and inspired by Rome, were doing better all the time. Now the entire planet is threatened with a heart attack.

The planet’s biosphere is teetering on the verge of NONLINEARITY.  Forget homeostasis. The weekly sea surface temperature reading, taken within the Niño 3.4 region near the equator, has risen to 2.8°C above average (that’s a rise of more than 5 degrees Fahrenheit). This ties the highest weekly departure of 2.8°C recorded in late November 1997 during the record-setting 1997-98 El Niño. Peaks five degrees Celsius above, and more, are observed (see graph above).

Radiative forcing augmented by 36% since 1990. Moreover, CO2, CH4, N2O, all mighty greenhouse gases are beating records in 2015. The rising sea catastrophe is already upon us.

In Senegal, the rivers Sine and Saloum mix, and form a delta. But the Atlantic ocean has been rising. So salt water rises occasionally higher than ever, invades, killing the African rice which feeds people, and even attacks the concrete, hence (extremely modest) houses collapse.

Meanwhile unknown chemistry  creates pollution fifty times above the UN limit in Chinese cities (China has correctly reacted by becoming the world’s first producer of solar energy)..

Since the year 2000, every year but one, was warmer than the preceding one. The World Bank, not an institution known for revolutionary tendencies, came with a report predicting an augmentation of temperature during summer, in the Mediterranean, of NINE (9) Degree Celsius, by 2100.

Why was the greenhouse problem not fixed yet? From a general mood of corruption.

It was exposed in cyclism: because the USA is the largest market, a crook, Lance Amstrong was allowed to finish first seven Tour De France, although many knew of this drug enterprise.

Soccer, of course, is pervaded by corruption. Corruption can be indirectly detected: in biking, French cyclists basically got no victory even on a single stage, for more than two decades, in the Tour de France. In France, drug controls have been very tough, for decades. Thus French athletes are at a disadvantage, because they are not doping (or, more exactly, not doping enough).

Now it turns out that the obvious has been revealed:  world athleticism is pervaded with corruption. The world athletic federation says that the London Olympics were “sabotaged” by doping. It points the finger at Russia, culprit of “State Doping”. How convenient.

Well, that was obvious all along. There are nearly 200 countries, but only a few get most medals, and Russia is a prime offender. The federation proposed to exclude Russia from the next Olympic games. That’s obvious, and should be enforced. Russia is a corrupt state. But then what of states such as Great Britain, the USA and Jamaica? Did you look at their medal counts in London?

Either those astounding countries are made out of super humans, or made out of super corruption: just like Russia’s their results in international competitions are just unbelievable, without systematic doping. The Federation did not say. Its acts are louder than words. The Federation just put Interpol and the… French Republic in charge of ferreting out this case of worldwide corruption in sports.

Patrice Ayme’

Ice Sheets Melt: Academics Waking Up; New York Times In Denial

September 25, 2015

There has never been a more important moral, philosophical, military, civilizational, psychological, sociological and economic issue than the concerted holocaust of the biosphere by Homo Sapiens, presently passing one tipping point after another. Thus I will not present excuses for keeping abreast of any advance in understanding in the field. Even if it is just to confirm what I have long said.

The first scientific paper including computerized models of ice sheets melt predicts the obvious: if we burn all PROVEN fossil fuels reserves, ice will completely melt, all over Earth. Yet, it is a big surprise to most scientists.

This is humanity as a geologic force,” said Ken Caldeira, a researcher at the Carnegie Institution for Science in Stanford, California, an author of the paper. “We’re not a subtle influence on the climate system – we are really hitting it with a hammer.”

Nice to read. Nietzsche was doing philosophy with a hammer, we went further: we are doing climate with a hammer. Hopefully, it will crack soon: nothing like a great catastrophe to bring further fascism. Nihilism is bad thing, naivety, even worse. To please the powers that be, and thus to be taken seriously, serious climate scientists have made unwarranted, profoundly unscientific, over-optimistic declarations about the ice sheets. Now they time is up. In truth the GreenHouse emissions are completely out of control, and still increasing… At a geological scale, every year:

50 Gigatons Per Year: This GreenHouse Is Bigger Than CO2 Alone

50 Gigatons Per Year: This GreenHouse Is Bigger Than CO2 Alone

“I didn’t expect it would go so fast,” Dr. Caldeira said.To melt all of Antarctica, I thought it would take something like 10,000 years.” Didn’t they all. Why? Because only then would one be invited at the White House. Thinking correctly means, first, to think in a way that pleases those with power.

“Combustion of available fossil fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet” [Ricarda Winkelmann, Anders Levermann, Andy Ridgwell, Ken Caldeira]:

“The Antarctic Ice Sheet stores water equivalent to 58 meters in global sea-level rise. We show in simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model that burning the currently attainable fossil fuel resources is sufficient to eliminate the ice sheet. With cumulative fossil fuel emissions of 10,000 gigatonnes of carbon (GtC), Antarctica is projected to become almost ice-free with an average contribution to sea-level rise exceeding 3 meters per century during the first millennium. Consistent with recent observations and simulations, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet becomes unstable with 600 to 800 GtC of additional carbon emissions. Beyond this additional carbon release, the destabilization of ice basins in both West and East Antarctica results in a threshold increase in global sea level. Unabated carbon emissions thus threaten the Antarctic Ice Sheet in its entirety with associated sea-level rise that far exceeds that of all other possible sources.”

The famous Doctor Hansen and his collaborators upset the establishment two months ago by predicting a rise of three meters within 85 years (they use the reasoning I have used before, namely that paleontological data show sea level rise of 5 to 9 meters, with a rise of just one degree Celsius; actually the reasoning was obvious since 2009, when I pointed out that “2C Is Too Much“). The new paper potentially confirms Hansen’s findings. As I said, the new paper tries to NOT upset the powers that be (differently from yours truly, who views most individuals and institutions in power more than suspiciously, and it shows).  Thus, one has to read between the lines to deduce that, from the paper itself, interpreting it optimistically is completely unwarranted.

The paper says: “Consistent with recent observations and simulations, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet becomes unstable with 600 to 800 GtC of additional carbon emissions.” Hmm… Let’s see, how long would that take, at the present increasing rate? Now emissions of CO2 itself are around 35 Gt, per year (35 billion tons of CO2, per year). That’s a number often brandished, but, left at that, it’s disinformation.  With other GreenHouse Gases, we are at 50 Gigatons of CO2 equivalent emission, per year. Sorry for taxing the mathematical capabilities of our great leaders:  12 x 50 = 600. This fits perfectly my “Ten Years To Catastrophe” essay. Thus, the West and EAST Antarctic Ice Sheet becomes unstable in TWELVE YEARS (according to this paper; I obtained the same rough estimate with a paleoclimatic approach).

The United Nations has said that the rise of the sea would not likely exceed three feet in this century. Some island nations will be wiped out (oops). Yet experts officially hope that major cities could be protected from it, in the richest countries that is (re-oops), though at a cost in the trillions of dollars (contemplate the enormous works to protect London or Venice).

The New York Times mentioned the paper above, which say the ice sheets will start melting irreversibly within a decade, to argue, in Politically Correct fashion, that ice sheets respond slowly enough to changes in the climate that it simply takes longer than a century for large-scale melting to begin. As if that notion was in the paper. It is not. Far from it. As I have argued before, that notion is ridiculous.

Indeed, warm water will rush below the ice sheets in West Antarctica, and East Antarctica’s immense Wilkes and Aurora subglacial basins.

Subglacial Basins Are The Achilles’ Heel Of The Biosphere

Subglacial Basins Are The Achilles’ Heel Of The Biosphere

{WAIS = West Antarctica Ice Shelf; WB = Wilkes Basin; AB = Aurora Basin.]

Yet from that (tipping) point on, the paper found that thereafter, the sea would rise at the rate at a foot per decade, ten times faster than now, the New York Times admitted.

However the real text is much more alarming. Here is an extract:

“The Antarctic Ice Sheet is severely affected by high carbon emissions through both the marine ice-sheet instability and surface elevation feedbacks. On the time scale of millennia, large parts of the ice sheet melt or drain into the ocean, raising global sea level by several tens of meters. Most of the ice loss occurs within the first millennium, leading to high rates of sea-level rise during this period (Fig. 3; for more details, see also fig. S6). Our simulations show that cumulative emissions of 500 GtC commit us to long-term sea-level rise from Antarctica of 1.15 m within the next millenium, which is consistent with the sensitivity of 1.2 m/°C derived with a different ice-sheet model (33, 34). Paleo data suggest that similar rates of sea-level rise have occurred during past warm periods (35). If the 2°C target, corresponding to about 600 GtC of additional carbon release compared to year 2010, were attained, the millennial sea-level rise from Antarctica could likely be restricted to 2 m. In our simulations, this would keep the ice sheet below the threshold for the collapse of the Wilkes Basin. However, if that threshold is crossed, the Antarctic ice cover is significantly reduced in thickness and area (Fig. 4). If we were to release all currently attainable fossil fuel resources, Antarctica would become almost ice-free. It is unclear whether this dynamic discharge would be reversible and, if so, on which time scales.”

As I already said, since 2010, we have added another 230 Gigatons. So we are within eight year of the Wilkes ice sheet, the largest in the world, to become unstable. The paper admitted that about half the Antarctic ice sheet would melt or fall into the sea in the first thousand years.”

The New York Times’ interpretation  that it will take nearly a century for dramatic melting to start was obviously tainted. It is just driven by political Machiavellianism: let’s admit there is climate “change” just as there is sea level “change”, and misinform about the unfolding catastrophe (although Main Stream Media had to recently admit the snow pack in California last April was the lowest in at least 500 years). How do I know this? The scientific paper used computerized models of the huge ice sheets covering Antarctica and Greenland. It is the first paper to do so. Yet, according to the biased New York Times, it would have found exactly what the UN found, during this century… Although the UN did not incorporate the ice sheet melt models.

Once the ice sheet melting is incorporated, faster melting ought to have been predicted, for THIS century. However that grim prediction would have upset the powers that be. We don’t want that to happen. Now that they have the drone habit, killing throngs of people they know nothing about, who knows what’s coming next if one disparages them? Beheading and crucifixion at the most esteemed Saudi plutocracy?

For plutocrats, the Saudis are a model of Human Rights: thus they elected them to head the UN panel on Human Rights. And ice sheet melting is perfect: all great catastrophes call onto lining up fanatically behind whom Obama celebrates as our “leaders” (our masters). If a bit of engineered inflation could bring Hitler, imagine what an inflating ocean can bring! A great future for the few who rule us, tax-free.

Patrice Ayme’

Only Massive Imperial Force Will Save The Children

September 5, 2015

Learn From The Refugee Crisis Better, & Faster, Than In the 1930s.

Abstract: The refugees from Syria have to be let in. Simultaneously, the root of the problem has to be dealt with. And it can only be dealt with war, a war which is, first of all, to be fought on philosophical ground.

Most countries ignored the refugees in the 1930s. So doing, those countries not only condemned millions of innocents to death, they failed to learn about, and prepare the war with, the ideology of death, which was on a collision course with civilization.


A father, his wife and two sons, aged 3 and 5, fled war in Kobane. Kobane, a city in Kurdish Syria, was destroyed by strict followers of the Islamist ideology. Relative of these Kurds had made it to Canada, a gigantic expanse of rich, temperate land up north. The two little boys ended drowned, and so did their 27 year old mother.

Enough. Time To Eradicate The Cause

Enough. Time To Eradicate The Cause

Chancellor Merkel and president Hollande had talked before about obligatory quotas of acceptation of refugees among European nations. Now they are making a formal proposition. The Hungarian PM, Orban, objected that accepting all these refugees would destroy the “Christian identity” of Europe. However, millions of Christians are trying to flee the Islamists (so one cannot accused these to not be “Christians”).

The war refugees reached the Anatolian coast, 23 kilometers away from the European island of Kos, in Greece. Canada had refused them peaceful admission (they had family there). So the war refugees had to flee for their lives, in an “unlawful” manner (how can it be “unlawful” to save one’s family?) They boarded a small boat at night, manned by a local Turk. The sea was bad. Two nasty waves, and panic on board, threw the family in the sea. Only the father survived. Aylan, three years old, ended on a beach, face down, drowned to death. Here he is, in the picture above. But cameramen were there.

In the present crisis, Germany has been the most accepting country of all for war refugees. That’s quite wise in many ways, and a significative change from German atavism. In 2015, Germany will admit 800,000 refugees, from the Middle East, much more than any European country.

In the long run, if the refugees are well integrated, they should help the German economy, which is short in workers. (That’s an important “if”; it passes by destroying first Islamist ideology, fundamental version.)

Daech (“Islamist State”) bought, sold women and young Yazidi girls calling them “cattle”. A trick women and girls used was not to wash, and smell as bad as possible, “Sara” testified in a book just published “Ils Nous Traitaient Comme Des Betes” (“they treated us as beasts”). Yazidis follow a religion several times older than Islam. So Islam hates them: as Yazidis are not “people of the book“, but “idolaters“, according to the Qur’an, they have to be killed. Hey, don’t look at me funny, just be respectful, and go read the Qur’an. Culture is nurture.).

Not that this is all about Daech: the horrendous dictatorship in Syria, that of the scion Bachar El Assad, has killed at this point around 250,000 people, displaced eight millions, and kills at a rate seven times that of Daech (according to the Syrian Human Right Watch (UK)).

When millions flee, leaving behind how they lived, risking their lives, it is an unmistakable symptom of evil rising.

On the face of it, the Islamist ideology, fundamental version, is worse than whatever was written in “Mein Kampf”. In Hitler’s book, one has to read between the lines, between the lies, and extrapolate. In the Qur’an, no need to read in between, or extrapolate anything: all sorts of categories of people, including highly speculative and non-objective ones, such as “apostates”, are condemned to all sorts of horrible death (with a preference for burning alive).

And now is Islam, fundamental version, in action: more than four million refugees, in Syria alone (OK, the dictator, Assad Junior, is officially not an Islamist, but he has the Islamist mentality, by opposition to the democratic mentality, and he is losing the war to the Islamists, whom he had craftily, or so he thought, released himself from jail!)

Yes, Islamism, like Nazism, was manipulated by an even greater force, international plutocracy gravitating around the highly leveraged banking system. But that makes the rising of war even more ominous, as it means that its causes are very deep, they have two stratigraphic layers, completely different in nature. One a form of banditry turned into a religion, the other, in the West, even worse, a form of banditry which nobody is aware of, a sort of transparency of crime.

So let’s accept the refugees from Syria, millions of them. That will be wonderful for European demography. At the same time, that can only be done by cracking down on the Islamist ideology. All and any preacher of Islam sent from overseas ought to be sent to jail for a very long time, and all and any Islamist teaching fundamentalist Islam should also do a long and hard time. This is the philosophical part: treat fundamental Islamism just like Nazism is treated in France and Germany: a criminal thought system.

At the same time, let’s not forget that, when million of refugees flee, it’s just a tripwire for infamy rising. And infamy needs to be crushed (said Voltaire).

In the 1930s, millions of Jews, and opponents of fascism, tried to flee central and southern Europe, where fascism had, using force, taken power in Italy, Germany, Spain, Hungary, etc… The USA was singularly uncooperative in helping them, accepting only a few celebrity refugees such as Einstein, Enrico Fermi (soon to direct the Manhattan project), Marlene Dietrich, etc. Cruise ships were turned around, and sent back to the Nazi Reich, and all passengers were grabbed back by the Nazis, and annihilated.

Meanwhile, France, with a territory smaller than Texas, accepted hundreds of thousands of refugees. (Compare with the 1,800 refugees from the Middle East the USA plans to admit in 2015.)

The usual “explanation” for the USA’s inhuman policy relative to the Jews and other enemies of Nazism in the 1930s, is that the USA is that the USA was “isolationist”. Sorry if I let you die along the road, or drown in the sea without throwing you a buoy, I’m isolationist.

In France, “non-assistance to person in danger” has long been a crime, very prominent in the law. A law, as applied to individuals, changes the mood of an entire society. Much difference between the USA & France comes precisely from the effect that this law, or lack thereof, has on the average person’s mind. (From health care, to incarceration madness, to fracking, etc.)

However, the more likely explanation was not “isolationism”. Instead, it is quite the opposite. The USA authorities, entangled with USA plutocracy, which was itself deeply entangled with European fascisms (in particular, Stalin’s Reich), was anxious to not have the American people guess the truth. The USA’s deep state knew the truth, and it suited it just fine: Europe was rotting, with a little help from the plutocracy of the USA, to the world’s worst dictators (Stalin, Mussolini, Stalin, Franco, Ho Chi Minh, etc.).

The solution, of course, as history revealed, was not to just accept the refugees from Nazism, but to go to war, something that the French Republic had understood first, yet could only do, once the United Kingdom had aligned itself behind France (this happened after the fall of Spain in winter 1939).

Eternal Return of the Same? Police officer talks to a Jewish person outside the kosher grocery where Amedy Coulibaly killed four people earlier in a terror attack, in Paris, Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2015.

Eternal Return of the Same? Police officer talks to a Jewish person outside the kosher grocery where Amedy Coulibaly killed four people earlier in a terror attack, in Paris, Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2015.

[For those who want to know, Judaism is the oldest religion practiced today in France. By a few centuries.]

The situation is the same now: first the refugees have to be accepted, now, and massively. But, although Europe can gladly accept maybe ten or twenty million refugees (as long as they get cleansed from lethal ideologies such as Islamism), Europe cannot accept all of Africa and the Middle East. Africa and the Middle East need to be fixed.

So what to do? War. And imposing an ideology that will overwhelm Islam (it has been done before, say with Christianism,  or, in most of these places, in the… 1930s: then Islam was viewed as the Middle Ages, ignored and despised. In the 1930s, Egyptian women in bikini crowed the beaches. Not coincidentally that was before the Nazi inspired, and Nazi allied, Muslim Brotherhood was created! One could argue the Muslim Brotherhood ought to be made illegal, for the exact same reason as the related Nazism is illegal… Yes, I know, some will argue Nazism is legal in the USA; yet, not really: one can hang a Nazi flag, and that’s OK, yet, one cannot indulge in ANY Nazi act: those are called “hate crimes” and are illegal, in the USA, France, Germany, etc.),

In other words, it’s high time to re-establish and expand over much of Africa and the Middle East, the Greco-Roman empire Muhammad had explicitly planned to destroy (and made an excellent job of it). What goes around, comes around.

A fundamental aside: Greco-Roman” is a mislabel. The “Greco-Roman” empire was Greek and Roman in language, but local languages flourished too. Moreover, the empire was also British, German, Punic, Spanish, Syrian, Libyan, North African, Illyrian, even Arab, etc. Not that the Sassanid (Iranian) empire next door was not another mighty civilization.

Some will scoff that this vision is too violent, too primitive. However, violence, that is force, works, and the more hinged on basic instincts, the more it works. This is why plutocracy, and its related tools, Nazism, Islamism, Sovietism, Maoism, etc. tend to work (only plutocracy and Maoism are thriving, at this point, but the others had their time of domination). The force, and seduction, of Islam is mostly in its primitive force.

Houellebecq published his book called “Submission” (that is, Islam). Coincidentally with the Charlie-Hebdo attack. Now the Algerian writer Boualem Sansal is publishing “2084, La Fin Du Monde”, also about the takeover of the world by Islam. Houellebecq just stated that he would now have written a version of his “Submission” much more critical of Islam.

Sansal talking to Haaretz: “I identify with all those who fight for freedom, and I believe that overall freedom is meaningless unless each of us is free. Those who are enslaved to a murderous ideology like radical Islam, who are presumably fighting for the freedom of the nation, are not coherent. They want to liberate their people in order to enslave them.”

Sansal writes in French, a language mostly derived from Latin, the language spoken in Algeria 2,000 years ago. Sansal wants French to be the official language of Algeria (instead it’s the language of the genocidal invaders, Arabic, which has been adopted as official language rather than of the three pre-existing languages… which still exist! Kabyle has not yet been made an official language.)

Daech, the Islamist State, knows, as Muhammad and his successors knew, that the facts which matter most are military facts. Indeed Islam rests on only two battles. In one of these battles, the small (40,000 men) Arab army annihilated the much larger Persian field army. In the other battle, the same Arab army defeated the enormous Roman field army. In both cases the Arabs were quick to follow their victories with unprecedented massacres (to eradicate any possible resistance).

So accept the refugees: it’s the human thing to do. But prepare to eradicate the cause of the exodus. That, too, is the human thing to do. And also the wisest.

To be more human is to be intelligent enough to use the greater force. Not just an opinion. A fact. A striking fact of human evolution.

Humanity is a force which goes, ever stronger. And morality is how it’s managed.

Germany is behaving correctly, wisely by accepting 800,000 war refugees this year. But that is unsustainable, and that is not enough (the USA is accepting maybe 1,800; yes, less than two thousands).

The German Republic needs to go where Merkel did not dare to go in Mali and Libya: support militarily, massively, the French Republic, reconstituting what made the Frankish Empire into Western Civilization properly reborn in a sustainable way. And the French need to project more force at the root. However not as Obama has been doing with his war of the drones. This is a philosophical war, not a war of assassinations. Assassinations-as-policy makes it worse.

Yes it means military budgets in Europe have to shoot up. In pertticular the German one.

The unwillingness of Europe, the richest continent, to use force to re-establish a modicum of security, order and civilization in Africa and the Middle East, is entangled with its unwillingness to use force to re-establish a modicum of security, order and civilization all over, when the future is threatened, from any cause.

In Eritrea, the dictator there has been filling up the boats in Libya fleeing for Europe. Meanwhile, he lives very well from a payment system he set up for himself among the Eritrean diaspora. This has been going on for ten years. Clearly, the Eritrean dictator ought to be removed by force, because only force will work.

Fundamentally, the cause of these wars sprouting all over, is the lack of vision in the definition of civilization in the West. Both Houellebecq and Sansal have been saying this recently, and so I have, from my obscure corner. As Salman Rushdie just added, the greatest thinkers on the Internet are Justin Bieber and Kim Kardashian, and that can only leave deep thinkers with a feeling of madness and discouragement. The presidents probably consult with them, and they proudly wear the Legion of Honor (if not already, pretty soon).

Those little children drowned on beaches are there, because it’s Kim Kardashian desire which rules the minds in the West. And the more horrifying the reality, the more the Twitter generation follows Kim Kardashian’s buns obsessively.

As long as people confuse thinking and spiritual masturbation, what passes for smarts will keep on degenerating. This has moral, even military, consequences. And so it will, until war drowns everything. Yet, don’t assume the good, smarter, better equipped, and more powerful armies of civilization, always win: just ask the French generals on May 20, 1940…

Or then contemplate what happened in Syria, at the battle of Yarmouk, from August 15th, to August 20th, 636. That’s when the main Roman field army, four times larger and better trained and equipped, was annihilated by the Arab army. Why? How? Just because the Romans had been overconfident, and then impatient. Next, as a forerunner of the Islamist State they were going to establish, the Arab warriors scoured quickly all over Syria and adjoining regions to kill all and any male in age of bearing arms.

Yes, we have seen it all before. And the Romans came to believe it, only when it was too late. A century later, thrice in a row, three enormous Arab field armies would be annihilated in France (721 CE-748 CE). And then, defenseless from the annihilation of its armed forces, the Arab Caliphate in Damascus fell, never to be seen again. There is hope, but it better be clever and strong.

Force, ladies and gentlemen, there is nothing like it, and it starts with the civilized mind. And, first, to establish it.

Patrice Ayme’

Camels in The Highest Arctic, Again, Soon.

May 4, 2015

Abstract: Logic and, or, independent observations, show that, considering the present CO2 (and other human made greenhouse gases) density, the High Arctic will be ice free pretty soon (except for the highest mountains, but that’s to be expected).


Once again, Jihadists decided to kill those who draw with a pen. Fortunately, they met a Texan police officer who was very good at drawing his pistol. (More on this soon.) Here I am going to consider another type of drawing. A rudimentary, yet enlightening, computation of mine. It is important, because it is about what keeps the Arctic cold: what is inexorably disappearing, the sea ice itself. Here is the picture (let a thousand Jihadists rage, for my daring representation of God’s creatures):

Pliocene Camels Lived As Close To The Pole As One Can Get On Foot

Pliocene Camels Lived As Close To The Pole As One Can Get On Foot

A recently published multi-year study revealed that there were giant camels in the extreme high Arctic, on Ellesmere Island, just west of North-West Greenland, 3.4 million years ago. Their bones show they were apparently 30% taller (and thus twice heavier) than today’s largest camels.

Camels originated in North America. What is surprising is that the environment of these giant dromedaries (one hump!) was characterized by an open larch forest (represented above), with an average temperature of – 1.8 Celsius, up to 22 Degrees Celsius warmer than today. Whereas GLOBAL Earth temperature was only 2 to 3 degrees C warmer. So here we see an Artic Temperature Multiplier of roughly ten: the Arctic was ten times warmer than the Earth average.

Interestingly, the CO2 density then, 3.4 million years ago, was the same as now, 400 ppm. Hence the 2 to 3 degree C Global Warming experienced then is what we are heading towards presently: a High Arctic which was ice-free in summer.

As I have advocated, years before anybody else, that two degrees Celsius of warming is too much. (See 2C IS TOO MUCH.) The main argument there was that observations show a rise of five degree Celsius in Polar Regions whereas the planet’s average has been only .5 degrees. So we observe a multiplier of ten, as I called it.

I admitted that this rough reasoning was simplistic: an obvious objection from Very Serious People would be that the observed rise in temperature, so far, was actually not 5 degrees Celsius in the Polar Regions, but less than that. I will give several independent reasons to object to the objection.

However, what is certainly true is that rises of 5 degrees Celsius have been observed for extended periods, in the Polar Regions. And that’s all what matters: once ice has melted, that’s it.

That, an extended temperature rise, plus a wind, is how the Larsen B iceshelf suddenly collapsed in Antarctica (this was observed by automated machinery set in the area prior to the collapse; there was a foehn of 100 km/h bringing a temperature of 15 C or so, for a few days).

Official observations are more modest: Polar Regions are warming at TWICE the average rate, say the official experts (the IPCC). However the latest explicit measurement found 4 times that rate in extensive areas (such as the Yukon).

Let’s make a little computation to decide whether officialdom (twice the rate) is right. Or whether my apocalyptic prediction is closer to the truth, as I claim it is.

Say the Earth temperature is 10 Celsius at 45 degrees latitude (10 C is the Earth’s average temperature, 45 degree is the average latitude). Say the permafrost is at the Arctic Circle (in some parts it’s north of it, in others, south, depending upon complicating factors such as oceanic climate, or snow cover… the latter acting like a warm blanket…).

The Polar circle is at 66 degrees. That makes it ¾ of the way from the equator. Thus one loses 10 degrees Celsius in 21 degrees of latitude. That corresponds to 10 degrees C in 2,300 kilometers. If the temperature rose at twice the rate in the Polar regions, and the average Earth temperature rose two degrees Celsius, it would rise by four degrees there (something as I said which as nearly being already observed, say in the Yukon, not exactly a small place). That means the permafrost would go north by 1,000 kilometers, or about ten degrees of latitude.

However, from what we observe, about four times the rate of warming in the Arctic relative to the average rise, one would gain 20 degrees of latitude, or so. 66 + 20 is roughly 90 (degrees of latitude)Therefore the ice will run out of planet.

And, with existing technology, there is nothing we can do. (Or imagine we could do in the future.) Hence the interest to cut down on CO2 production.

Once the ice, in particular the sea ice is gone in summer, the region will absorb much more heat, and its temperature will quickly gain the twenty degrees Celsius of temperature it used to enjoy in the warm Pliocene.

Patrice Ayme’

Stellar Flybys: New Way To Life’s Extinction

March 2, 2015


How fragile is life?


Many disasters can strike a biosphere.

A famous “equation” the Drake equation, is meant to estimate the probability of life in the galaxy. It overlooked many factors. One of them is interstellar near-misses. It is not a question of stars colliding, but of the disruption of solar systems.

A star zoomed through our Solar System just 70,000 years ago, astronomers have just discovered.

Scholz's System: I Zoomed By, Therefore I Scare

Scholz’s System: I Zoomed By, Therefore I Scare

No other star is known to have approached this close to us.

The international team of astronomers found that the intruder came five times closer than our current nearest neighbour – Proxima Centauri (at .8 light year whereas Proxima Centauri is 4.2 light year away).

The star, a red dwarf known as Scholz’s star, cruised through the outer Oort Cloud, a region not as much stuffed with comets as the inner Oort Cloud. Scholz’s Star is 8% of the mass of the Sun, and it is accompanied by a brown dwarf which is nearly as massive (6% of Sun mass). It goes without saying that going through the comet cloud would have adverse consequences for advanced life on Earth. But worse could happen.

(Brown dwarves just miss the mass necessary mass to have enough heat and pressure to get fusion going in their cores).

Something struck me when extrasolar planets were discovered. How frequent were the super-Jupiters grazing their home stars? Of course, there was a detection bias (with the technology used by the French Corot, and the more recent USA Kepler, the probability to detect a super-Jupiter close by was overwhelming).

However, a question loomed: how do you get a gas giant that was obviously formed far from the home star, so close to the home star? One could imagine a cloud breaking the planet, but that makes little sense (as cloud and planet have similar angular momentum, and the planet would suck the cloud).

What’s left?

Collisions. Or more exactly, near-misses.

Previous work suggests that flybys within 0.25 pc occur infrequently (~0.1 Myr−1).

Sedna, a dwarf planet, whose orbit varies between 70 (seventy) and 1,000 (thousand) Astronomical Units (AU, the distance between Sun and Earth). Maybe a remnant from a near collision (torn from a Red Dwarf clutches).

In any case, Scholz’s star came within 52,000 AUs of the Sun. And it passed very fast (the slower the pass, the greater the disruption).

If it had passed within 100 AUs, the disruption would have been considerable (Neptune is at 30 AUs; at 90 AUs, the pull from a passing star, in the worst case would 1/10 of that of the Sun, and would make the orbit of Neptune ellipse, significantly eccentric)

So what happens if a gas giant gets a severely eccentric orbit? Well, it can cut through the others’ orbits, and the whole system becomes unstable. A few large collisions and near misses later, one could get some gas giants to graze their suns, as observed.

As usual, I just suggest the idea. Others can figure out the details, program their computers, and check… ;-).

Let’s make a little computation. Suppose that the probability of a star coming within 52,000 AUs was once every 100,000 years (a probability tellingly estimated BEFORE it came to be known Scholtz’s star zoomed by).

Let’s consider the disruption radius to be 100 AUs. The probable number of near-misses disrupting the inner system during the past extent of the Solar System would then be:

1/25,000)x(10^4)x5 = 2.5.

That’s quite a bit… And, now that we know about Scholz’s Star’s recent flyby, no doubt that the probability of near misses will skyrocket. All the more as the Sun is presently in the pretty empty zone, the Local Bubble, 300 light years across.

I have explained in the pat that life depended not just upon having a planet in the Habitable Zone (the Water Zone), but also in the Radioactive Belt.

Many are the causes of disasters on the way to advanced life, as I have enumerated in:

Being lucky with stellar flybys is another factor to consider: a nudge to the outer gas giants, and it’s curtains for advanced life. Bacteria don’t count. I am suggesting that, in star systems long established, star near-misses is a much serious problem than rogue asteroids or comets.

Patrice Ayme’

2014 Warmest: Antarctica Surprise Melt Coming

January 9, 2015

I will come back tomorrow, with more details, on the connection between murderous superstition and the plutocracy that has long fostered it.

I will come back on the fact that somebody like Obama is so ignorant of the law (!), that he does not even (seem to) know that one cannot “slander” someone dead (as he pretended one can… At the United Nations, when he equated not respecting a “prophet” with the murder of tens of millions). I will come back on the fact that “legal” tax cheating by the hyper rich, the plutocrats, has left all PUBLIC educational systems in disarray, and states weak. And thus this return to barbarity is pushing young people straight back to Medieval unreason (Rushdie).

Right now, let’s take a break. With climate “change”, for comic relief. Here is another product of our great leaders, and their wealthy sponsors:

Since 1850, the Rise of Temperature Is More Than One Degree Celsius.

Since 1850, the Rise of Temperature Is More Than One Degree Celsius.

The Japanese government announced that 2014 was the warmest year on record for the Surface of the Earth. It is all the more remarkable considering that 2014 was NOT an El Nino year.

What could go wrong?

This brings the Earth global temperature roughly from less than 14 Celsius to 14.7 Celsius (the latter being the average over 2014).

For comparison, at the maximum of massive glaciations, say 22,000 years ago, when a mile high glacier stood above New York City, and a solid shelf of ice extended East, all the way to France, the temperature over the North Atlantic was just five degree Celsius lower… And sea level more than 100 meters below.

What’s the future? An enormous acceleration, surprising all, just as with the repression of Freedom of Expression, and the resurgence of Middle Age murderous religious madness and superstition (encouraged by policy at the highest level).

Acceleration proportional to itself, is the definition of the exponential, a function ubiquitous in nature.

Two exponentiating accelerations will reveal themselves with the climate.

One is well known: it is the massive release of methane hydrates, a form of methane ice found in quantities that may dwarf all the other hydrocarbons put together. Methane, CH4, has a greenhouse capability tens of time greater than CO2. It has already started, complete with huge explosions, it’s not science-fiction on another planet.

The other coming surprise is fast melting of West Antarctica. West Antarctica is basically under water. Or more exactly, the bottom of its glaciers scrap the rock below the waterline.

When warm water slips below the ice, between ice and rock, those giant glaciers may melt in a few years (and not in the few centuries presently predicted by common scientific wisdom). Now how did the glaciations start, three million years ago? With the massive glaciation of Antarctica. This, it is surmised, arose from the ACC, the Antarctica Circumpolar Current (which happened after some obstructing volcano chain across the ocean got eroded away).

Conversely, if half Antarctica melts, the albedo of the planet will diminish considerably, accelerating the warming, with an exponential contribution.

To boot, a similar threat, enormous glaciers resting on rock below sea level, exists over a vast part of East Antarctica:

During El Nino, warm water buried in the Pacific Ocean churn, slosh and erupts at the surface of the Eastern Pacific. This warms the surface. The last spectacular El Nino was in 1998, and it caused a spectacular jump in surface temperatures.

(Thereafter those who wanted to deny a rise in surface temperatures used the 1998 peak as a starting point.)

For the first time in history, temperatures in Anchorage, Alaska, did not drop below zero Fahrenheit once in an entire calendar year. In comparison, Alaska’s largest city had 14 days below zero in 2013, and 32 days in 2012. The average is 29 days. Here it is, graphically:

Most of Heating Happens At The Poles, Bringing a Swift Rise in Sea Level.

Most of Heating Happens At The Poles, Bringing a Swift Rise in Sea Level.

In the coldest areas, in the sea or land, where methane hydrates are deposited, evidence is growing of massive eruption.

Even if coal fired power plants worldwide were converted to carbon negative plants (not that this is feasible, even in theory) a catastrophe is unfolding. A pulse of heat is working its way down into the oceans, and in the ground, especially in the Polar regions. That pulse will cause methane to erupt on most or all of the continental shelf methane hydrate deposits, worldwide.

Most of this first eruption of methane will not add directly to global warming (except in shallow Arctic seas, where the CH4 reaches the surface before recombination, and the effect is already apparent). Instead it will add to ocean acidification. After the ability of deep oceans to oxidize the methane is exhausted, methane will vent into the atmosphere. It’s coming, according to the modeling from the IMPACTS consortium of national labs. (The IMPACTS program was quietly de-funded at the end of 2013: our great leaders don’t want the truth to come out.)

Methane eruption is an example of Non-Linear effect E: the more the effect E, the faster E grows (that’s called an Exponential).

Non-Linear effects are all over the infernal climate machinery we have set in motion. For example, the more the ice and snows of the Arctic melt, the darker the Arctic gets, and the more Solar radiation it absorbs.

NASA satellites observed a marked increase in solar radiation absorption in the Arctic since 2000.

An enormous acceleration, just as with the repression of Freedom of Expression. Charlie Hebdo and its many ancestors and its many predecessors operated without assassinations for two centuries. But now, for 15 years top cartoonists, journalists and writers in France have been under police protection… When they were not fired outright for criticizing some forms of Islamism.

The times, they are changing. For the best in many ways. However, also for the worst. We have a small planet, perhaps the only one with a civilization (although obviously many harbor some form of life). It is a spaceship. Our immense material powers may well destroy it, in short order.

Lest we exert great discernment. Now. This requires probably changing our inappropriate leadership system, which rest on the brains, of a few individuals, easily bought, or selected by a pernicious elite (the built-up of CO2 was easy to avoid, if a different ethical and political system had been in the lead).

Patrice Ayme’

Nuke That Comet

October 2, 2014

Many are not held back about being strident. Why should not intellectuals do the same? After all, what they do is most important. So Nietzsche was strident, for example against German racist, anti-Semite, mediocre nationalistic, herd like aspiring bourgeois. Apparently that was not strident enough, and, somehow, the Nazis succeeded to make many believe that their worst enemy (Nietzsche) was their prophet.

The herd approves of those who are peaceful. So, to be taken seriously by the herd, to be a bovine intellectual, so to speak, one needs to be for peace, against conflict and anything violent. In particular, nuclear power, you know, from the nuclei which are all over matter, is not kosher.

Asteroid, 500 Kilotons, 17 Meters Across, 25 Miles Away.

Asteroid, 500 Kilotons, 17 Meters Across, 25 Miles Away.

The wall of a zinc plant in Chelyabinsk, Russia, was damaged by a shockwave from the meteor exploding 40 kilometers away, in 2013. With a mass of around 10,000 tons, 50% more than the Eiffel Tower, its explosion at 30 kilometers altitude damaged 7,200 buildings in 6 cities, injuring 1,500 people. Just a warning. It was the fiercest impact known since the Tunguska event… That destroyed 80 million trees in a radius of around 30 kilometers… Yet left not even a fleck of dust we know of. But there may have been others over the oceans, or even… Amazonia in the 1930s, where an object brighter than the sun impacted!

A 100 meters across asteroid would explode with around 100 Megatons of TNT energy, around double the largest nuclear device ever exploded (the notorious “Czar Bomba”; see the picture inside “The Worst)

For years would-be wise men, in scientist clothing claimed that nuclear weapons would not be efficient against asteroids. That was obviously an idiotic, and even dangerous position to have. in most plausible scenarios of a bolide impact, we would have little warning. A typical case is that of a comet on an hyperbolic trajectory, falling at enormous speed from the Oort Cloud.

Such bolides are attracted by planets like flies to honey. After all, gravitation is not called “universal attraction” for no good reason.

One such comets is going to graze Mars. It may as well have headed straight to Earth.

And then what?

Nukes. Big, fat, thermonuclear nukes.

Indeed, soft options then don’t work. Forget “gravity tractor” and “impactor.” The former involves using gravitational tug from a large spaceship to tweak an asteroid’s course. The impactor would crash at high speed into the asteroid to effect the same purpose… both may well fail, as asteroid are bizarrely constituted. Some are little more than rubble piles.

Soft methods would only work if the asteroid were small enough and seen soon enough. Many, as the one above, come from the Sun’s direction, so cannot be seen from Earth, as they catch up with her.

For large objects, short response times, or a comet, a nuclear explosion “is the only option,” (said, for asteroids, Bong Wie, a professor and director of Iowa State University’s Asteroid Deflection Research Center).

I wrote entire essays on this in the past. Now I am happy to announce that this point of view has been heard.

Some U.S. nuclear-warhead components, scheduled for disassembly, have gotten a new lease on life. Reason: possible use in defending the Earth against killer asteroids, or comets.

The National Nuclear Security Administration manages the U.S. atomic-weapons arsenal. The warhead components, containing highly enriched uranium, are being retained “pending a senior-level government evaluation of their use in planetary defense against earthbound asteroids,” an April 2014 report reveals. (A reason to keep components is that particularly powerful H bombs may have to be fabricated quickly, in the case of a looming large object, such as a comet; bombs in present arsenals can be delivered precisely, so are not very powerful, although they would be effective against very small asteroids.)

Asteroids with a diameter of about a kilometer or bigger, could “produce global devastation,” said the National Research Council in 2010. Hundreds cross Earth’s orbit, yet none are expected to impact for at least 100 years.

However at least 100,000 or more asteroids at least 50 meters in diameter cross Earth’s orbit. Probably no more than 5% of these “Near-Earth Objects” have been detected. A 50 meter asteroid exploding over a large city could kill up to 30 million people.

Those beasts tend to explode in the atmosphere, leaving no material remnants, as happened in Tunguska. So the statistics we have about how frequently they come knocking, are suspect.

It’s a world of forces, a violent world, out there. Better be ready.

When flying a civilization, we have to assume that, if it may happen, it will happen.  Especially if it’s very catastrophic. That’s the essence of Catastrophic Calculus, fundamental to flying planes, and civilizations.

Patrice Ayme’