Archive for March, 2020

Raoult’s Hydroxychloroquine-Azithromycin Cure For Covid: 80 Patient Study

March 31, 2020

Clinical and microbiological effect of a combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin in 80 COVID-19 patients with at least a six-day follow up: an observational study
Running title: Hydroxychloroquine-Azithromycin and COVID-19

Long story short:

The light beige line denotes the patients who are contagious (shedding virus). Basically, none of the 80 patients shed virus after ten days. The median virus shedding time is 20 days (Chinese studies). Quinine-Azithromycin works!

[Authors [1]]
Abstract:
We need an effective treatment to cure COVID-19 patients and to decrease the virus carriage duration. In 80 in-patients receiving a combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin. We noted a clinical improvement in all but one 86 year-old patient who died, and one 74 year old patient still in intensive care unit. A rapid fall of nasopharyngeal viral load tested by qPCR was noted, with 83% negative at Day7, and 93% at Day8. Virus cultures from patient respiratory samples were negative in 97.5% patients at Day5. This allowed patients to rapidly be discharged from highly contagious wards with a mean length of stay of five days. We believe other teams should urgently evaluate this cost-effective therapeutic strategy, to both avoid the spread of the disease and treat patients as soon as possible before severe respiratory irreversible complications take hold.
Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; hydroxychloroquine; azithromycin; PCR; culture.
Introduction:
In late December 2019, an outbreak of an emerging disease (COVID-19) due to a novel coronavirus (named SARS-CoV-2 latter) began in Wuhan, China and quickly spread in a substantial number of countries (1;2). The epidemic was declared a pandemic by the WHO on 12 March 2020 (3). According to a Chinese study, 80% of patients present with mild symptoms and the overall fatality rate is about 2.3%, although this rises to 8.0% in patients between the ages of 70 to 79 years and to 14.8% in those aged 80 years and over (4).
However, it is highly likely that there are a significant number of asymptomatic carriers in the population, and thus it is probable that the mortality rate has been overestimated. To take the example of the outbreak onboard the Diamond Princess cruise-ship, the fatality rate was 1.4%
(5). France is now facing the onslaught of COVID-19 with more than 25,000 cases, as March 26th, 2020 (5). Thus, there is a critical and urgent need for an effective treatment in order to cure symptomatic patients but also to decrease the duration of virus carriage and thus limit transmission in the community. Among the candidate drugs to treat COVID-19, repositioning
old drugs for use as an antiviral treatment is an interesting strategy, because knowledge about these drugs’ safety profile, side effects, posology and drug interactions are already well known (6;7).
Three in vitro studies have demonstrated that chloroquine phosphate inhibits SARS-CoV-2 (8;9) and two have demonstrated that hydroxychloroquine sulfate inhibits SARS-CoV-2 (8-10). Other studies have pointed out that drug repurposing may identify approved drugs that could be useful for the treatment of this disease including, notably, chloroquine,
hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, as well as anti-diabetics such as metformin, angiotensin receptor inhibitors such as sartans, or statins such as simvastatin (11). In addition, chloroquine has demonstrated its efficacy in Chinese COVID-19 patients in clinical trials by reducing fever, improving CT imaging, and delaying disease progression (12-14), leading Chinese experts to recommend chloroquine-based treatment (500 mg twice per day for ten days) as a first line-treatment for mild, moderate and severe cases of COVID-19 (15).
In a preliminary clinical trial on a small cohort of COVID-19 patients, we demonstrated that those treated with hydroxychloroquine (600 mg per day, N=20 patients) had a significant reduction in viral carriage at D6-post inclusion, with 70% of patients testing negative for the virus through nasopharyngeal PCR, compared to untreated controls (N=16) with only 12.5% patients testing negative using PCR at D6-post inclusion (16). In addition, of the twenty patients who were treated with hydroxychloroquine, six received azithromycin for five days (for the purposes of preventing bacterial super-infection) and all (100%) were virologically cured at D6-post inclusion, compared to 57.1% of the remaining 14 patients (16). By contrast,
a Chinese study conducted in 30 COVID-19 patients showed no significant differences between patients treated with 400 mg per day during five days (N=15) and controls (N=15)
regarding pharyngeal carriage of viral RNA at day7, however, patients received multiple
additional treatments including antivirals (17).
A recent Chinese survey revealed that the median duration of viral shedding was 20.0 days (IQR 17.0–24.0) in survivors, but SARS-CoV-2 was detectable until death in non-survivors.
The shortest observed duration of viral shedding among survivors was eight days, whereas the longest was 37 days (18). Therefore, a treatment enabling the viral carriage to be cleared and COVID-patients to be clinically cured at an early stage would help limit the transmission of the virus.
In this report we describe our results in patients treated with hydroxychloroquine in combination with azithromycin over a period of at least three days, with three main endpoints:
i) clinical outcome ii) contagiousness as assessed by PCR and culture and iii) long of stay in infectious disease (ID) unit.
Methods:
The study was conducted at the University Hospital Institute Méditerranée Infection in
Marseille, France. Patients with PCR-documented SARS-CoV-2 RNA from a nasopharyngeal sample were admitted to our infectious diseases (ID) ward. It should be noted that six patients enrolled at our institute who were described in our first paper, with a six-day follow-up (N=6) (16), were also included in the present study, with a longer follow-up.
Clinical classification and clinical follow-up: 
Upon admission, patients were grouped into two categories: i) those with an upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) presenting with rhinitis and/or pharyngitis, and/or isolated low-grade fever and myalgia, and ii) those with lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) presenting with symptoms of pneumonia or bronchitis. The time between the onset of symptoms and admission, and the time between the onset of symptoms and treatment was documented. Risk factors for severe COVID-19, including older age, cancer, cardiovascular disease, hypertension, and diabetes (4), as well as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, obesity and
any immunosuppressive treatments were documented.

PA

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Authors: Philippe Gautret1,2,£, Jean-Christophe Lagier1,3,$, Philippe Parola1,2, Van Thuan Hoang1,2,4, Line Meddeb1, Jacques Sevestre1, Morgane Mailhe1, Barbara Doudier1, Camille Aubry1, Sophie Amrane1, Piseth Seng1, Marie Hocquart1, Julie Finance5, Vera Esteves Vieira1, Hervé Tissot Dupont1,3, Stéphane Honoré6,7, Andreas Stein1,3, Matthieu Million1,3, Philippe
Colson1,3, Bernard La Scola1,3, Véronique Veit8, Alexis Jacquier9, Jean-Claude Deharo10, Michel Drancourt1,3, Pierre Edouard Fournier1,2, Jean-Marc Rolain1,3, Philippe Brouqui1,3 Didier Raoult1,3* IHU-Méditerranée Infection, Marseille, France.
2Aix Marseille Univ, IRD, AP-HM, SSA, VITROME, Marseille, France. 3Aix Marseille Univ, IRD, APHM, MEPHI, Marseille, France. 4Thai Binh University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Thai Binh, Viet Nam 5Assistance Publique de Marseille, Hôpital Nord, Explorations Fonctionnelles Respiratoires, Aix Marseille Université. 6 Service de Pharmacie, Hôpital Timone, AP-HM, Marseille, France. 7 Laboratoire de Pharmacie Clinique, Aix Marseille Université, Marseille, France 8 Assistance Publique de Marseille, Médecine Interne, Unité de Médecine Aigue Polyvalente (UMAP).
9 Department of Radiology and Cardiovascular Imaging, Aix-Marseille Université, UMR 7339, CNRS, CRMBM-CEMEREM (Centre de Résonance Magnétique Biologique et Médicale-Centre d’Exploration Métaboliques par Résonance Magnétique)
10 Assistance Publique de Marseille, Hôpital Timone, Cardiologie, Rythomologie, Aix-Marseille Université.
*Corresponding author: Didier Raoult. Didier.raoult@gmail.com

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P/S: The Raoult paper lists contraindications. Mostly people known to have problems with quinine and AZT…

Idiots Say: “Idiocy Is Great!”

March 30, 2020

They are “young”, a fleeting notion in humans, and they scoff:”I want to go out and have fun! Why should I care that a few old folks may die?” Fun? What fun? Why at happened to the struggle against Nazism? Was not that a struggle to cancel those who wanted to help “natural selection” and kill whom they viewed as the weak? What do those “young” mean by “fun”? Is killing old people fun, then? Getting together and inebriating, namely drugging their brains out of commission? OK, I admit that if I had a brain as deranged as theirs, I would probably try to shut it down using alcohol, marihuana, opiates, glues and what not, too!

In France, one of their own, one of these “young”, described as a party girl, died from COVID 19. She was 16. In California a teen, age 14, died. In Illinois, Cook County, a ten month old infant died. A principal of a school, not even 40 years old, died in New York.

OK, easy for me to say: I was never a party girl, or a party animal. Why? Out of self-respect for my mind, which has always spurned mobs, and herd thinking (speaking of herd, how is that “herd immunity” working for you, you the COVID, Boris Johnson? Your government was idiotically promoting “herd immunity“, two weeks ago… Conclusion: COVID exploded in the UK. That it exploded in France for the same reason, weeks earlier, is not excuse…)   

So tell me, brainless youth scofflaws who think death and suffering happens only to others? “What is the difference between you and young Nazis? Young Nazis also wanted to have fun, gathering, flocking, and bellowing, all together.

The “youth” is not smart, because the “youth” has been brainwashed to admire brainless plutocrats such as muscle man Kobe Bryant… Bryant was notorious to fly all around, despising climate and people. Well, fog killed him… But he dragged children in his death. Actually I know 40 something lawyer who claimed she had the worst day in her life when Kobe died. She was crying all over Facebook. What about Kobe’s 13 year old daughter, and her friend on the same flight?

A week ago, I met a flock of twenty-somethings on top of a hill in a park. They were going up as a tight group, two dozens of them, talking loud. They were abreast of a fire road, I squeezed along them, up wind (because I am smart). One of them said aloud:”And they tell us if we cough here, they will die down there in the valley!” They all laughed. The first houses were several miles away.

Result? The Bay Area parks parking lots were ordered closed yesterday.

This is of course a fleeting moment: soon the “youth” will see the error of their ways, if they don’t already.

***

Want an example of scientific idiocy? Consider other scientists and media hacks trashing the research of superstar professor Didier Raoult. Here are examples:

“Raoult’s critics have pointed to problems with the protocol of his testing and worrying side effects of the drug… At least one person has already died in the US after self-medicating with a non-pharmaceutical version of the drug used for cleaning fish tanks.”

Both statements are commonly reproduced all over the same idiotic media which was trashing Trump as racist and keen to distract from impeachment, after he called a public health emergency and closed the border to China, January 31… and idiotic. The product to clean aquariums is a chemical combination with phosphate, made to kill all life. Of course, if one swallows it, one dies. The “side effects” of “the drug” are nothing. I took both drugs many times and for quite a long time, both to fight malaria and pneumonia. My mom had a heart problem, perhaps in part for using quinine, but she used it for ten years, both for malaria and another medical condition. This being said, right, quinine can attack the cardiac muscle. 

The idiocy of such comments show the hatred bias of those who proffer them. Another common barb at Raoult is that his studies are “observational”, not “double blind”. But actually Raoult had controls (2 groups outside of his 24 patients; now he has an 80 patients study out, same results). 

Unphased by the clamoring negativists full of hatred, Trump requisitioned sixteen million (16 x 10^6) doses of hydroxychloroquine from three pharmaceutical companies (March 30, 2020 press conference). Contrarily to what the rabid anti-Trumpers have been claiming, the evidence that this Raoult drug works is great (and dates more than a decade).

***

Idiots love idiocy. This love for idiocy is often the main reason why they’re idiots. Pointing out idiocies to idiots, who are idiots by choice and will, make them more idiotic, because they crave idiocy, and want to splurge. 

Where does this love for idiocy come from? Laziness is a big factor; thinking is hard, energetically expensive, because it’s expensive to reorganize one’s brain neural networks

Idiots don’t just find intelligence more expensive that they can afford, they hate intelligence, and that entices them to become ever more idiotic: idiots are smart enough to feel that idiocy is the greatest remedy to that intelligence they are unable to experience!

Honorable commenter Ronald Scheckelhoff observes: “I think that in some cases the mechanics of untruth are machinated by lies, but in other cases by disinterest, and in still other cases by ignorance, so it’s quite a stew of causes that’s driving the current crop of bad decisions.

Laziness is indeed an important driver of generalized stupidity. Thinking is hard, entertainment easy. That’s why people prefer to admire Kobe, a basketball player, a ethically corrupt, not so gentle man, who had his family fly in pea soup so thick police helicopters were grounded, and cars could only be driven very slowly. Ethically corrupt? He got children killed, flying in that pea soup: the helicopter couldn’t land, too much fog, it was put on a holding pattern. 

The arrogant Kobe had been well-known, for a decade, for flying all over, spitting on We The People and common sense. Several media production made fun of him that way. That was so well known, a video cartoon was produced in which Kobe crashed in his helicopter, but still had a bad attitude even after the crash, pulling his tongue out while clutching his trophies

***

Kobe was an ethical disaster, a model exactly of not what to follow, precisely because he was not smart. This demonstrates, not that this was necessary, that basketball stars don’t have to be smart. No elementary thinking is necessary in this activity, to be a tremendous success making the females juice up, and the teens hope they get lucky too… But then the question is why are such idiots brandished as what the youth should emulate? No wonder, then that the “youth” think it’s OK to kill everybody (else). 

Suggesting that whom, and what, one admires or is fascinated by, is an ethical problem may sound to some as far fetched. But actually the notion is not new, and was implicit in many past ethical systems (for example Judeo-Christo-Islamism).

Want a better world? 

Start with better role models to adulate, and thus, emulate. And better fields to admire, and long to contribute to. We need to understand biology better, not to refine the art of oversized specimens apt to put the ball into baskets.

Patrice Ayme

QUORA Wants To Ban Me: I Said The $6.2 T Bipartisan Bill Is Mercantilism

March 30, 2020

Mercantilist economic policies aimed to build up the state, commerce and industry, and Mercantilist theorists charged the state with looking for ways to strengthen the economy… [1]

The Internet is manipulated by the censors which its extremely wealthy owners pay. Many of these geeks have low levels of education, and see offense where there is none. Before getting on Quora today I got a warning that one of my comments violated their policy, and I had to sign an electronic document telling me I was going to be banned, should I do it again. [2]

My comment was entirely technical… and in economy. There were no attack against any member of Quora. There were no insults against people dead or alive. I just sung the praises of “Mercantilism”, an economic theory under which most powers operated for many centuries. I referred to an essay explaining the distinction between “Mercantilism” and “Colbertism”. I cannot imagine why the comment was banned. Actually the 6.2 trillion dollar package just passed is an example of Colbertism… Everybody agrees to save Boeing, that’s Colbertism. I cannot possibly imagine why such a comment would be banned. But it was. We are dealing here with people who micromanage thinking and scholarship. First comic relief:

The Anti-Trumpers are completely insane, but, you know what? It works! As Hitler said, the bigger the lie, the more plausible it sounds. NYT had an article claiming:”Trump to New York: Drop Dead!” The hatred this sort of insanity brings actually makes the anti-Trumpers even more full of righteousness and hatred…

I was answering Peter Malmutt who wrote:

This stimulus was absolutely necessary because as you highlight, no economy no money. While this is structured very differently to the TARP (lessons learned, esp not to trust desperate bankers) and equity positions in some corporates could be an outcome, doesn’t this look like quasi-socialism? Isn’t that something that is taboo for the Republican Party ideology, although they also used to hold strong views on balanced budgets and maximum national debt levels?

In a first comment, I said that, indeed, it was socialism. Then I wrote the following comment, deleted by Quora:
“People who voted Republican in the past wanted to stay wealthy. In a static world, it meant balanced budgets and absolute limits on debt, to insure the value of money. However, the world is not static anymore. Europe is balancing budgets, and getting ever more poor, relatively speaking. The US and UK have been profligate: it works.

If the USA had balanced its budget in World War Two, the completely unbalanced Nazis would have won… The USA sent, for free, absolutely gigantic quantities of planes, tanks, trucks, to the USSR… Enough to turn the tide… Similarly the UK got immensely indebted to the USA to stay in the war. At the end of the war, the USSR had no industrial capacity (it was in the USA) and the UK had to surrender to the USA…

The COVID19 is an occasion for the hard sci fi edge of the US economy to get ahead… Firms like Gilead… Republicans have come to realize that one has to stay ahead, if one wants to thrive… Ahead of the virus, but not just the virus, as governor Cuomo said today… Trump is a billionaire entrepreneur who made his fortune inside the USA, and was long an enemy of the Reagan Revolution (he prefered subsidies… ;-))… And thus a left wing Democrat, relative to say, Biden or Clinton…
Trump literally captured the Republican Party and has been able to harness this new way of creating wealth… Just like the old one, ruling all over Europe and the USA, it’s called MERCANTILISM, but one should call it in its most striking version, COLBERTISM…
Colbert Good, Keynes Not So Smart (https://patriceayme.wordpress.com/2010/09/04/colbert-good-keynes-not-so-

Why was the comment deleted?

Probably because some plutocrat saw it, and perceived that it could be viewed as complementary to Trump (in spite of the crack about subsidies… and it’s true Trump harnessed New York construction subsidies, that’s why the NY gov set up subsidies…). Then the plutocrat, or servant thereof signaled to Quora one better terrorize that author, whose entire “answer” could be interpreted as all too favorable to Trump… Never mind that I approved of a BIPARTISAN BILL…

***

Trump Derangement Syndrome extends even to COVID. Here is what I read among the anti-Trump enraged and deranged:

“President Trump has turned to a French virologist with a history of criticizing climate science to offer the world hope amid the novel coronavirus pandemic.” Actually Raoult criticised poor meteorological predictions… which have gone indeed pretty bad recently, because the climate is changing too fast. But the TDS crowd has no limit:

Last week, Trump tweeted that the combination of two medicines could dramatically alter the often deadly course of COVID-19.

“HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE & AZITHROMYCIN, taken together, have a real chance to be one of the biggest game changers in the history of medicine,” Trump wrote. He then cited a study published in the International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents that afforded little time for peer review.

Notice the viciousness: the paper was actually PEER REVIEWED in the most prestigious Journal. And published by said Journal. But now hacks who probably never studied calculus or biology are telling us that the peer review had “little time”. Yeah, guys, thousands of people are dying everyday.

PhD Raoult is the greatest star in his domain… And an MD, so he prescribed his drug, hydroxychloroquine, to more than 4,000 patients: it’s safer than quinine (which I got for years).

The World Wide Web is a treasure. But it’s full of parasites, vermin, viruses… How to distinguish truth from lies is difficult. Over the years I was banned from many Internet outlets, for “fantastic thinking” (the guy who accused me of this was the Harvey Weinstein of philosophy, a serial rapist), or from the European Tribune for having suggested that bankers bankrolled Hitler (they made an Internet search, they said, to prove only me in the entire world had this theory… It’s how the wealth of the Bush family was launched…), or the Daily Kos, for saying Obamacare would make the profit of the healthcare insurance industry greater (it did), or from the Guardian, for being a Jihadist… The fatwa against me from Pakistan Justice (!) Ministry for offending the famous Rophet, a proof, no doubt… Etc.

There should be a law of public utility forbidding censorship… Ah, but as a New York Times subscriber, for decades, I was censored more than 1,000 times… Sanders wanted such a law… But Sanders didn’t want to hurt Biden’s feelings… Thus demonstrating a congenital inability to become US president…

WW Web is Direct Democracy. The political system we have is Democracy through Representatives… Basically, as in China. Direct Democracy has to develop Debate Expertise. This is not a new debate: Socrates was obsessed by the notion of Direct Democracy versus Expertise. What I call “Democratic Institutions” were developed, in the Middle Ages, to answer Socrates. However they turned out to have seen their would-be Expertise been devoured by Will To Power. So now we have anonymous censors without any education telling us “Mercantilism” is an insult.

In any case, Marx, Engels, Proudhon (their inspiration) fustigated the owners of the workers. Now one should fustigate the owners, or more exactly enslavers of thoughts.

Patrice Ayme

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[1] The Wikipedia entry on Mercantilism I linked to is extremely bad, and denotes an anti-Mercantilist bias. That’s because Mercantilism is nationalistic, whereas the plutocratic globalization was leveraging internationalism to avoid taxation and legislation… Servants of plutocrats probably wrote the article… I will not bother modifying it: total loss of time, I would get in a fight with arrogant poisonous mice…

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[2] Quora is an Internet outfit with intellectual pretense. It covers the full spectrum from unfathomably stupid, to extremely interesting… Depending upon who wrote the article, and what it is about.

Trump $6.2 TRILLION Fight Against COVID Is Economically Responsible 

March 28, 2020

Finance is a convenient servant to the economy. Finance is not even necessary to the economy, and no economy, no money.  The six trillion dollars signed and negotiated by Trump do two things: 1) and most important, sustain and amplify the essential economy. 2) keep alive the non-essential economy, which would otherwise stop existing (… we can gently ease it out later…) 

The 2.2 Trillion Dollars Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act passed the US Senate 96 to zero (4 Senators were COVID or quarantined). Two days later the US Congress passed it, and Trump, who had helped to negotiate the details, signed it immediately. There were no hearing: all gt together, including Trump, who agreed to much Democratic ideas…

This was the largest financial intervention act of a state in the history of humanity.

The same day, Trump used the Defense Procurement Act, forcing General Motors to produce respirators. Trump added he may use the FPA again, as “we have a couple of little problem children… two companies which are NOT doing what they said they would be doing.  

Some anti-Trumpers screamed to high heavens that Trump was exploding the national debt, and bringing financial ruin to the US. Critics of the 6.2 trillion dollar intervention do not understand how the economy works. In particular, they do not understand the essence of the economy, which is GOVERNMENTALISM. Let me explain.

***

Big US debt procurement during World War Two was highly profitable to the US… and WORLD, economy… Let alone those who wanted to smash Nazism and other fascisms…

National debt, in a sovereign country acts, potentially, like a future tax, on those wealthy enough to have lent the money, or, potentially, as a future tax on those who received the money… I say debt is a “potential tax”, because reimbursement conditions can, and often, will vary. For example, if money is lent, but not reimbursed, it acts as gift, or theft, depending if one is on the receiving, or donating end. Europeans have acted stupid, ever since the EU was founded, as if they didn’t understand that (but the UK understood it, explaining partly its better economic performance.)

Let me add that this is not the case here; the 6.2 trillions are no augmentation of the national debt (explanation another time). 

What Trump is doing is putting the US economy on life support, while providing massive financing for research and development… and health care: 150 billion dollars for hospitals alone.

Here is an example: CDC Dr. Fauci said industrial fabrication of vaccines will be launched, even while one can’t know yet if those vaccines will work, or even if those vaccines do not launch the dreared “IMMUNE ENHANCEMENT”… that is during Phase 2 trials; that will be costly as perhaps two dozen vaccines are being developed (using sometimes extremely different methods: the Pasteur institute is using its usual method to see if its hybrid coronavirus-brucellosis is safe on mice and soon primates… While Sanofi will further push a 2017 “prototype” SARS vaccine using recombinant tech; several RNA vaccines are already in human trials, testing for basic safety…)     

A nominal increase in national debt acts as real free money for now.. And a potential, just potential, tax. I say potential, because, for a country of Argentina and if the money has been lent by foreigners, one may have to pay back part of it… But if one is the USA, one doesn’t have to pay any of one’s debt. Especially to foreigners. If foreigners don’t like it, they should feel happy to have lend so much money to such a superpower

One of the reason the European economy has stagnated is that it has insisted to inflict high taxes on citizens, instead of much more forgiving debt (which growth can erase; so debt enables and incites a sovereign country to grow faster…)

As it is, moreover, Trump’s two trillion is not necessarily a debt. And it’s actually six trillion dollars. 

Japan has a national (“Federal”) debt in excess of 200% of GDP. On March 27, it had only 49 deaths from Coronavirus, out of 1,700 cases, with a (so far) completely flattened curve, and a death rate per million not even one tenth that of the USA. In general the Japanese economy had not been doing badly with that debt… maintaining, for example a first class universal health system…. At a time when the USA is demonstrating, for the whole world to see, that a profit guided health system is a colossal disaster. Indeed, soon the USA may have much more than a million Coronavirus cases, and that will be imputable in part to not have been willing to spend more on healthcare (instead of spending on the billionaires who profit from US healthcare).  

The Federal government created two trillion dollars as direct help with CARES. To this one has to add 4 trillions of the US Federal Reserve at the disposal of banks through leverage (to start with; the Fed has said it will create whatever money is needed). None of this money is really debt. At most it means part of the US economy is getting nationalized (the average citizen becomes a shareholder).

***

Take four cases I personally know of:

Picture a 500 rooms/apartments hotel/resort without any revenue for the rest of the year. It’s a “family business”. It has employees, pays their healthcare 100%. It’s at 7,000 feet, it has large fixed cost in heating, security, maintenance. And revenue is now zero. And will stay so for many months. What to do? A bank loan! But where does the bank get the money from? The Federal Reserve, which lends it at zero interest!

Picture my climbing gym. Actually a company with a dozen climbing gyms, with course setters, maintenance, staff, and paying 100% health care. Same story as the preceding.

Third example: a research institute in AI getting its money from corporations with now zero revenue. They said they were firing all their scientists, effective in June. The Trump administration is stepping in.   

Fourth example: Several science museums I know. There is money for them in the two trillions. Trump himself explained the Kennedy Center for the Arts needed 25 millions to pay salaries, maintenance (the Dems wanted 35 millions initially). 

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Trump is using MASSIVE GOVERNMENTALISM. Smart.

What is important is that expertise not be lost. OK, a bit of expertise lost in completely useless parts of the economy will be OK… But futuristically essential services should be maintained. For example in teaching, research, industrial base. 

The mightiest states are always living with fiat money. The Inca were using knots on ropes. The very fact a state can impose fiat money is an expression of its power. As it is, there is going to be a hole of one third of GDP, because one third of all transactions in one year will not happen. So the state making it so that it will appear these transactions did happen… Even if they didn’t. 

Debt, left unpaid, means some people with excess capital may be cheated on. But debt, left unpaid, can save an economy. What is it not to like? I always said that Trump, as his chronology and behavior indicates, was truly a real Democrat (aka a “populist”… despised by the haves). TARP, organized by Obama, was truly a Transfer of Assets to Rich People. Whereas CARES has tight oversight, and pays the average family (which TARP didn’t do). CARES is the right thing to do. The alternative was a depression worse than 1929.

This virus crisis is an excellent occasion to find out how the economy works. First, one can see that 90% of the economy, or so, is useless. One can also see that the essential part of the economy, including scientific research, advanced, life saving technology, is underfinanced.

In Italy, some medical workers get paid less than $1,000 a month. Yes, less than a thousand dollars, and now the opportunity to die. But then they were honored by watching on TV brainless muscle guys paid more than one hundred million a year, just to hit a ball with their foot.

Ironically enough, the USA, and the world, is lucky that the US President is a specialist of saving (his won!) value through bankruptcy (ironically yours truly saw this, at the time, as corruption… Meanwhile, though, we have seen much bigger corruption than that…

CARES is bringing in money, as needed. Trump is ordering around General Motors, as, unfortunately, needed. This is a war. War can be good.  Universal health care systems in Europe were created thanks to the shock of World War Two. Coronavirus is the bellicose occasion we needed to reorganize the world economy in a more essential way.

Patrice Ayme 

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To Stop COVID, Only One Way: Find & Tell All, Who Is COVID. And Their Contacts, Then Lock Them Up

March 27, 2020

Confinement will not stop the epidemic. It will just slow it down, it will go from a mad rush, to an irresistible jog, aggravated by the slow-down of semi-essential parts of the economy (like electric cars, which foster better lungs).

Yes find out all these COVIDs or at least, where they are located and whether they come around, and then confine them pitilessly. This is how smart countries do it. Stupid countries die, or enter a depression, etc. When facing death, forgetting freedom is wise. 

CLOSED CASES: A SIXTEEN PERCENT DEATH RATE!

148,471 Cases which had an outcome (March 26):

124,378 (84%) Recovered / Discharged

24,093 (16%) DEATHS

Yes, sixteen percent deaths among the official COVIDs. Those COVIDs make our lives difficult, threatening us, even, and especially, post mortem. Let’s reciprocate. 

After seeing the number of cases relentlessly climb, and stupid countries such as France, Italy, Spain, the USA, and the UK get hopelessly confused about what to do, although it was obvious, I sent this to the US President (he was awake, and tweeting as a happy birdie at 2 am!)

@realDonaldTrump Want to stop the pandemic? Only one way: find, and tell, where all the COVIDS, and their contacts, are. Then confine them pitilessly. This is how smart countries do it. Stupid countries die, or enter a depression, or both, etc. When facing death, forgetting freedom is wise.

When facing a furious lion, and, a fortiori a new virus, one does not invoke human rights. That was tried with Hitler, didn’t work. One fights totally, and that means no holds barred.

Everybody should be tested, and the information should get in one’s Smartphone (cheap smart phones should be distributed to some or then simple systems involving bracelets could be used, as in China). One should be able to tell, one one’s phone, if a COVID passed by, or is behind the counter. 

Some say: Oh, but we are the free, we can’t be ordered around! Yes, but you can be dead. Also, actually you think you are free, but actually a plutocracy is leading you by the nose. Right, your (pseudo-) “Democracy” is not as coercitive as in China, BUT it is less performing.

How do I know this? Well look at the pandemic. The leading Western countries are literally dying, or at least their economies are. The People Republic of China, and several other Chinese polities (Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore), and also Korea and Japan, are doing much better.

More than half a dozen Asian nations have the epidemic under control… But the West doesn’t… and it is a mental problem!

Why? The intellectual leadership of the world has gone back east. It happened before: as Rome got bogged down in plutocracy, it opted for the fascist god… while China chose a mandate of Heavens resting on a solid Mandarin class of scholars [1]. Many centuries later, the situation would slowly invert: the Franks outlawed slavery, becoming more democratic, while the Central State (China) engaged in large scale strife, and the elite became detached from We The People. As a result China stagnated in many ways, and then was invaded and occupied durably twice (by the Jurchen first and then Mongols).

We know very little about this virus: can one have it twice? (Some cases say yes.) The pandemic could develop very adversely. China is restarting its economy, but is nervous about restarting the virus too. 

Protecting medical anonymity has no value when all, and the economy, could die. A lawyer told me the US president could lift at will medical anonymity (I will know more later) 

Interestingly, Germany has been testing much more. That enabled the country to catch the cases earlier and manage them better: Germany has 50% more cases than France… but while Germany suffers 267 dead, France has 1696: the French hospital system is getting overwhelmed. Moreover, under the idiotic guidance of its monarch (who insisted to hold an election in the midst of the epidemy), France, like Britain, guided by (criminal) idiots opted, during a few weeks, for “herd immunity”… Something applying to diseases our bodies are evolutionary selected to know, like the flu, and for which we have often some sort of immunity… In truth France and Britain could not test enough (some say because they depended upon China too much, although the basic tech is PCR invented by a Californian surfer…), so they said testing was not wise. 

What’s not wise is for entire gigantic countries to be guided by a few idiots instead of being enlightened by an intelligent public debate among the most superior minds.

Absence of this debate, guidance by idiots, is how & why we got in COVID that bad.

COVID: the livid proof of the West’s increasing mental retardation.  

If, facing death, you cling to freedom, as to a talisman, you will get neither. That was the problem of the Jews facing Hitler. They had to choose sacrifice, too many prefered to cling to the talisman.

Patrice Ayme

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[1]: Mandarin was meant to mean “thinking counselor“, when the Portuguese met the Chinese. For the Chine they were just “kwan”, public servants… So the Portuguese viewed Chinese public servants as pretty deep…

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P/S: Fate punished British Prime Minister Boris Johnson for his hare brained, ill-informed attempted “herd Immunity” strategy which he imposed upon the UK for a few weeks: he has COVID, fever, cough. Same for his health secretary. Germany has found 2/3 of COVIDs lose taste and smell first. Red eyes frequent too.

What Was The Miracle Weapon Of World War Two? Me 262? Or The Obvious? And Who Got the Idea? A Woman!

March 26, 2020

A little relaxation of sorts… my way…

It may look strange, futile and slightly deranged to ask what would be, for all too many, an apparently desultory question, while a lethal virus is ravaging the planet. However a virus rampage was fully predictable, and yours truly had predicted such a disaster, and many others, many times. And there were even close calls by various viruses as explicit warnings from evidence. So I was castigated with the opprobrium of what I warned against.

We have this virus because we are led by the most foolish moods, habits, ways, and individuals. So it is not futile to establish truths. Exerting the truth muscle is not just a question of the honor of the human spirit, but also of sheer survival.

So let’s go to the gym of truth! 

Because of the blockade, the Nazis couldn’t get the Fundamental Elements they needed to make high temperature turbines, so the Me 262 didn’t work as well as it , by could have a very long shot

The Miracle Weapon of World War II Was A French Idea…

When one thinks of a miracle weapon in WWII, one generally thinks of the Me 262, the first jet, and first jet fighter. The Me 262 had a propulsion problem: reactors that were not powerful enough, not very resistant… Paradoxically the reactors were worse in 1944 than 1942, because of the blockade against Nazi Germany.

Germany could not manufacture the necessary high temperature metals because, after attacking Stalin, it no longer had access to the basic elements necessary to make these alloys. Hence the problems with the reactors. One type of Me 262 reactor used … aluminum, which melted, lasting only 10 hours …

Germany was led by fools who strongly, and correctly felt, in their hearts of hearts, that the war lost since that day of September 3, 1939, when france and Britain declared war to the stupid, vicious Nazis.

Indeed, if nothing else, Germany was subjected to the same blockade as in 1914 … with the difference that this time, differently from 1914-1916, the Netherlands was not there to bring the American necessities which fascism needed to make war. So, ironically, Stalin played in 1939-1941 the role of embargo buster that the USA had played in 1914-1916. It was more natural than it looked: Soviet and German fascists had been allies (semi-secretly) since 1916 …

A “Wunderwaffe” of which little is spoken is the teleguided Nazi surface to air rockett, “Wasserfall. If the Nazis had developed it rather than V1 or V2, that would have changed a lot of things.

The French (more precisely the Communist Irène Joliot-Curie) launched the atomic bomb program in January 1938, by telling the Minister of War of her chain reaction… which became the “Manhattan” program. “A bomb, a city” was informed De Gaulle in Canada in 1944 by a French scientist who worked on the bomb (at the time even the US VP didn’t know about the atomic bomb)… Against this the Germans could only surrender. So the ultimate miracle weapon of war was French… of French origin …

Irène, Nobel Prize winner in 1933, really discovered nuclear fission. Otto Hahn is reputed to be noble, because supposedly he contemplated suicide when he heard of Hiroshima, as he “felt responsible”. That’s the same as saying he invented it. However, he didn’t. Instead Hahan resided in Hitler’s Third Reich during the entire duration, researching probably felt sad to have missed on the idea of the bomb (which Irène didn’t, and surmounting her disgust, her a Communist, she went to the French War Ministry). The first reactions of the imprisoned German nuclear scientists were not ambiguous: they would have liked to make the bomb, but given the state of Nazism in “1942”, they didn’t have the “moral courage”. Top German nuclear scientists didn’t have the “moral courage” to be good Nazis… Notice too that the Franco-British-Canadian-American effort to make a nuclear bomb started in January 1938: 1942 was way too late… And Germany didn’t have the means [1].

Ten “German” scientists were held in a house full of US microphones. Some of the result from a book about Hahn:

He “was now glad”… Yes, after the war, many a Nazi “was now glad” that Nazism didn’t work out, after all… German scientists were genuine Nazis: they regretted not to have developed the bomb, but then some of them concluded that it was for the best.

By August 1945, the main German newspaper in Southern Germany (written by Americans) crowed that the Germans, Otto Hahn had discovered nuclear fission and he got the Nobel prize right away (Irene Joliot Curie had been gravely sick since 1940, and this is why she and her husband didn’t go to London). So the not so noble Otto Hahn got the Nobel Prize for this subject which he had plagiarized (I have read the correspondence between the French Irene and the German Otto; it was a case of “Me Too”). It was not deserved: Irene spent months demonstrating her discovery to him… Ibidem, the fame Heisenberg was too stupid… And he, too, lifted his uncertainty from De Broglie. If you see a pattern of germanoids stealing french ideas here, you got it right…

Of course, few French people know this glorious and formidable history of their own country. The French have become like sheep and the USA is their shepherd (this is to achieve this that mongrels were depicted as giants, even if, like Sartre, they yelped at the USA).

Under the impetus of low-ranking thinkers, portrayed as if they were giants, France made the absurd into her abode, escaping into the tyranny of stupidity denying the very ideas of superiority and progress. France has forgotten herself, and its tremendous intellectual power.

Contemplate, right now, the stupid monarch from one of the oldest, wealthiest, more war prone banks, who forbids people to hike in the mountains, to go to the beach and the forests because he and his minions believe that there is a virus out there … A virus of which they were the main enabling agents… By refusing the proven remedies used by many countries in Asia (test, track, confine).

Yes, contemplate this and weep. No wonder they don’t even know they discovered the nuclear fission chain reaction.

Patrice Ayme

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[1] Differently from the Germans, the Japanese had figured out that a nuclear bomb was feasible, and had three massive efforts to make them.

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Partial French version from Quora:

L’Arme Miracle de la Seconde Guerre Mondiale fut Francaise…

Le Me 262 avait un problème de propulsion: des réacteurs pas assez puissants, peu résistants…. 

L’Allemagne ne pouvait fabriquer les métaux hautes température nécessaires, car, après avoir attaqué Staline, elle n’avait plus accès aux éléments fondamentaux nécessaires pour faire ces alliages. D’ou les problemes avec les réacteurs. Un type de réacteur du Me 262 utilisait de … l’aluminium, il durait 10 heures…

L’Allemagne etait dirigee par des imbéciles qui sentaient fortement la guerre perdue depuis ce jour du 3 Septembre 1939: l’Allemagne était soumise au même blocus qu’en 1914… a la différence que cette fois les Pays Bas n’étaient pas là pour amener les nécessités Américaines dont le fascisme avait besoin pour faire la guerre. Donc, ironie de l’histoire, Staline a joué ce rôle. Il est vrai que fascistes Soviétiques et Allemands étaient alliés (semi-secrètement) depuis 1916…

Quelque chose dont on parle peu est la fusée Nazie teleguidee sol-air “Wasserfall”. Si les Nazis l’avaient développée plutôt que les V1 ou V2, cela aurait changé beaucoup de choses.

Les Français (plus précisément la Communiste Irène Joliot-Curie) avaient lancé le programme de bombe atomique en Janvier 1938… Qui devint le programme “Manhattan”. “Une bombe, une ville” fut informé De Gaulle au Canada en 1944 par un scientifique français qui travaillait sur la bombe… Contre cela les Allemands ne pouvaient que se rendre. Donc l’arme ultime miracle de la guerre fut… d’origine française…

Irène, prix Nobel 1933, découvra vraiment la fission nucléaire. Le Prix Nobel du pas si noble Otto Hahn a ce sujet n’était pas mérité: Irene pass des mois a lui démontrer sa découverte… Ibidem, Heisenberg était trop bête…

Bien sur peu de français connaissent cette histoire glorieuse et formidable. Sous l’impulsion de penseurs de bas quartier, dépeints comme s’ils étaient des géants, la France a versé dans l’absurde, et la tyrannie de la bêtise niant les idées même de supériorité et de progrès. La France s’est oubliée elle même, et sa formidable puissance intellectuelle. 

Contemplez le stupide monarque issu de la banque, qui interdit les montagnes, la plage et la forêt car lui et ses séides croient qu’il s’y trouve un virus… Dont ils furent les principaux agents. En refusant les remèdes miracles d’Asie (test, track, confine). 

 

Corrupt Travel Industry Should be Forced To Use Hybrid, Hydrogen Planes

March 23, 2020

Civilizations decay when taken over by plutocracy, which makes their thinking heads decay into a corrupt mediocrity enabling greed and will to power, to devour deeper, more human values until the entire society sinks into idiocy.

Example? Big pharmaceutical companies spending more on advertising than on researching and developing new treatments: it should be completely unlawful. Doctors, pharmacists are the only individuals who should be appraised of treatments, and that should be done without bells, whistles, under the counter payments, and teams of pretty girls selling the products. (In some countries, such as France, pharmacists can prescribe).   

Another industry which got out of control was the travel industry, shuttling, at enormous ecological cost, people all around the world, for no good reason. When one is European, going for a week to South East Asia, just because it’s “cheap” is immoral, anti-ecological… and has turned outright homicidal.

Civilization should exact the exact price that air travel is costing the biosphere. (I can’t be accused to be anti-air travel, because I flew for the first time as a toddler; I have had a tricontinental life… Not my choice…)

The French engineer and inventor Clément Ader created the first planes (he had also created, among many other things, better telephony, the first wireless stereo, and V8 engines; as he was a formally educated engineer, Ader invented non-trivial things; he became wealthy in the process). Adler used new technology, steam engines which were the lightest ever made. He took off on 9 October, 1890. However, in the following decade, much more powerful gasoline engines were invented. After this, the pace of innovation in aviation was blistering. Between Ader’s first flight and the first jet engines, just half a century elapsed. Eighty years after Ader took off, humanity was landing on the Moon. Since then, we have pretty much stagnated.

A little dreamy vacation from the terrible Coronavirus… Flying Wing, big electric propellers in the back to supplement high bypass jet engines… Feasible now. [NASA picture.]

Hybrid propulsion for aircraft should be feasible with existing battery technology (or the one just around the corner, with twice the energy density; let alone solid state lithium, which is on the verge of industrial production; Ader invented the lightest engine: aviation should invent the lightest batteries). 

The point of aircraft hybrid propulsion is that much power is used during ascent or emergency (all engines on). Hybrid can recover much of this energy during descent (with appropriate large slow propellers working as air brakes in the back of the plane). Due to aviation needs batteries could be much improved (going to solid state, forgoing much of the present weight for cooling and isolation of the present flammable cells; in a car, battery mass is not that important).

One can easily sketch what should be done. But it would require vastly different airframes (large propellers in the back, etc.). 

Hydrogen planes are obviously feasible, as large hydrogen rockets routinely fly (as Ariane V). They just require a massive “green” hydrogen infrastructure, which is needed anyway (to store sustainable energy such as solar PV).  

Once again, different airframes would be needed. Airbus has been using the same airframe on the A320 for 40 years…. And Boeing for nearly 60 years on the 737… The whole airline industry has become corrupt, resting, fat and content, over huge subsidies, packing passengers like disease laden sardines, flying them all over the world for no good reason… 

Ader, who invented so many things, electric or not, also created the words “avion” and “aviation”… Coronavirus is showing us that flying people like sardines should be against the law. Airline subsidies should also be against the law, be they for not paying a fuel tax, for business jets, etc. High speed or not, AWE, pollution and energy cheaper electric trains should be subsidized instead.  

It goes without saying that the cruise ship industry should also be forced to go hybrid and sailing (omnidirectional sails exist)… And also slower. One large cruise ship (ironically made in France) was demonstrated to cause, anchored in Marseilles, France, as much pollution as two million cars. It should be all electric, and if that means nuclear engines, so be it. 

We know, from 99.99% sure paleontological record, and 100% from elementary geographical thermal logic that at 450 ppm CO2, oceans should be 30 meters (100 feet) higher. Now we are already at 500 ppm in CO2 equivalent. However, coronavirus is going to curb the human CO2 input this year (that may help us see how much CO2 augmentation is caused by human activity). Just as with viruses, humanity has been under the belief that this sort of thing happens to others. However, elementary logic and basic geography show we could have a breakup of the iceshileds within a few decades. 

So we need to shut down CO2 production. Air travel was expected to become a most major contributor, within a few years… Instead it’s momentarily shut down. It should not reopen was it used to be. In that respect, thanks, SARS-CoV2! 

Patrice Ayme

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Important P/S: The question of why the effect of civilizational sinking into idiocy didn’t happen in Medieval Europe is of the utmost interest; yes, right, it was a close thing. And sinking into ever deeper idiocy is what happened to the Greco-Roman empire. Arguably, much more was thrown at Middle Age Europe, including ecological overload from large populations, the terrible plague of 1348, and the Little Ice Age (which started around 1300 CE, just when all over Europe, population were peaking. A country like France was reaching the relatively enormous population of nearly 20 millions, just when the climate brutally cooled).

So why didn’t “Europe”, the “Renovated” empire didn’t sink into idiocy? After all, it still spoke Latin! It spoke Latin longer than Rome! Well, differently from Rome, Europe’s fascist index was lower than that of Rome. Basically imperial fascist Rome had one potentate, the emperor… who also headed the state religion, starting with Diocletian, Constantine (300 CE). By contrast, after the Carolingian empire breaking into pieces, Europe was in pieces… Sixty of them in Western France (Francia Occidentalis). The ferocious competition between the potentates, especially Paris and London, brought a race to technological superiority. For example, field guns were invented by the southern French to fight the English. But lots of the competition was also in pacific technologies, like textiles…

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P/S 2: Aircraft makers, except when working for the military, are part of the “travel industry”, of course… So are hotels, etc. Business jets get subsidies which should be cut right away.

 

Antibiotics: Crucial Against Viral Infections, Be It Covid19 or the Flu

March 22, 2020

CONTRARILY TO ILL CONCEIVED WISDOM… ANTIBIOTICS WORK AGAINST VIRUSES, In Several Ways:

Professor Didier Raoult’s research has demonstrated the antiviral property of the azithromycin antibiotic in the case of SARS2/Covid19. Moreover infections have been involved in a large proportion of COVID 19 deaths. By the way, bacterial co-infections are involved in 75% of influenza infections, according to the latest meta study from NCBI (extensively quoted below). Somehow, many Medical Doctors are unaware of this. (Jump to bottom for personal general conclusions, after all the science extracts…) Before the links, here is the truth, March 22:

CLOSED CASES: 112,174

Cases which had an outcome:

97,574 (87%): Recovered / Discharged

14,600 (13%): THIRTEENTH PERCENT DEATHS

Contrarily to what establishment propaganda is pretending, the death rate of COVID19 is getting worse. On OUTCOMES, the only relevant concept, the death rate is not one percent, as establishment propaganda insists it is, maximally lying, but thirteenth percent (13%). Ask 6,000 dead Italians.

Here are some links:

On antiviral antibiotic:

Novel antiviral properties of azithromycin in cystic fibrosis airway epithelial cells.

Schögler A et al. Eur Respir J. (2015)

Pharmacokinetic changes of antibiotic, antiviral, antituberculosis and antifungal agents during extracorporeal membrane oxygenation in critically ill adult patients.

Hahn J et al. J Clin Pharm Ther. (2017)

Azithromycin, a 15-membered macrolide antibiotic, inhibits influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection by interfering with virus internalization process.

Tran DH et al. J Antibiot (Tokyo). (2019)

And antibiotics work for influenza too:

There are 75% co-infections with bacteria in the case of flu, a meta-study in Frontiers in Microbiology, 23 June 2017, shows:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5481322/

Here is from the last review paper: 

“Abstract

Lower and upper respiratory infections are the fourth highest cause of global mortality (Lozano et al., 2012). Epidemic and pandemic outbreaks of respiratory infection are a major medical concern, often causing considerable disease and a high death toll, typically over a relatively short period of time. Influenza is a major cause of epidemic and pandemic infection. Bacterial co/secondary infection further increases morbidity and mortality of influenza infection, with Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, and Staphylococcus aureus reported as the most common causes. With increased antibiotic resistance and vaccine evasion it is important to monitor the epidemiology of pathogens in circulation to inform clinical treatment and development, particularly in the setting of an influenza epidemic/pandemic.

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Introduction

From the Plague of Athens to the present day, infectious disease has beset mankind throughout history. Medical and socio-economic advances have substantially reduced this burden, the eradication of smallpox in 1979 (World Health Organization, 2017) and the remarkable successes against polio and parasitic Guinea worm disease being three examples of an extensive list. Respiratory tract infections, however, continue to be a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide (Lozano et al., 2012; Morse et al., 2012; Zumla et al., 2014). When combined, lower and upper respiratory infections are the fourth highest cause of global mortality (Lozano et al., 2012). Epi- and pandemic outbreaks of respiratory infection are a major medical concern, often causing considerable disease and a high death toll, typically over a relatively short period of time. The unpredictable nature of these outbreaks, in terms of their etiology and the reservoirs from which they emerge, the constant emergence of new antigenic variants by mutation, combined with transmission within potentially immunologically naïve populations facilitates the characteristic high proficiency of spread (Morse et al., 2012).

It is well established that both animals and humans can act as reservoirs of infection within which pathogens may adapt and evolve. Examples include Coxiella burnetii which typically causes Q fever in cattle, sheep and goats but can also infect humans (Eldin et al., 2017), the plague causing Yersinia pestis, infamously transmitted to humans by rats via a flea vector (Yang et al., 2016b), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) which originated in non-human primates before spreading into the human population (Rupp et al., 2016) and of course the most common example, influenza, which circulates within and between swine, avian and human hosts (amongst others). This cross-species flow can lead to adaptations that result in an increased pathogenicity to susceptible hosts, creating the potential for localized outbreaks or global spread (Murphy, 1998; Karesh et al., 2012; Morse et al., 2012). Important evolutionary modifications can occur during the timespan of an individual infection, permitting new and evolved strains of pathogens to emerge at an increased rate (Karesh et al., 2012). The evolution of pathogens (particularly zoonotic pathogens which account for 60% of human infectious diseases), and development of pandemics and epidemics, can be described in ecological principles whereby changing environmental pressures or opportunities drive a pathogen to exploit new niches or hosts to survive and thrive. This evolution is influenced by a range of anthropogenic factors, which include population expansion, changing land use and habitat destruction, selective pressures of increased antimicrobial usage, vaccination, global trade and travel (Daszak, 2012; Karesh et al., 2012; Morse et al., 2012).

Pandemics are generally viral in cause. This is thought to be due to their high mutation rate, which is particularly true for RNA viruses such as influenza where high nucleotide substitution and poor proof reading leads to the accumulation of errors in newly synthesized RNA strands. Influenza can also undergo re-assortment during mixed infection. These factors can result in divergence of surface antigens, such as haemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA), producing strains not recognized by the human immune system and not covered by extant vaccines (Holland et al., 1982; Webster et al., 1992; Chen and Holmes, 2006; Hampson and Mackenzie, 2006; Jones et al., 2008; Taubenberger and Morens, 2008; Dormitzer et al., 2011; Morse et al., 2012). For instance, influenza A is now known to have 18 subtypes of HA and 11 subtypes of NA (Li et al., 2012; Tong et al., 2012; Wu et al., 2014). This high mutation rate and the emergence of new strains can also make vaccine development and policy difficult to plan and carry out. Due to viral antigenic shift, yearly influenza vaccines are required so the population is sufficiently protected by the vaccine, however, vaccine composition is determined ∼8 months in advance of administration. This lag may allow new strains to emerge or for antigenic drift to result in a poor match between vaccine and the circulating strain of influenza. Furthermore as seen in the 2009 influenza pandemic, governments and public health departments face considerable difficulties in the production and distribution of vaccines when faced with sudden or unexpected outbreaks of newly emerged strains (Houser and Subbarao, 2015).

A common complication of respiratory viral disease can be secondary bacterial infection. Noting this association is important as it has clear implications for global health, principally because bacterial co/secondary infection is known lead to increased morbidity (Smith and McCullers, 2014). Co/secondary bacterial infection, as the name suggests, is a bacterial infection that occurs during or after an infection from another pathogen, commonly viruses. A number of viral infections (including infection from influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza virus and human metapneumovirus) can be complicated by co/secondary infection by a variety of bacteria including Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, and Staphylococcus aureus. This association leads to an increased severity of disease and sequela such as pneumonia (Smith and McCullers, 2014). In this review we dwell on influenza pandemics since the late 1800’s, focussing on the associations and complications that arise from secondary bacterial infection

Influenza

Influenza viruses are important zoonotic pathogens as they are highly contagious and one of the most prevalent causes of respiratory infection. Worldwide annual epidemics reportedly cause up to five million cases of severe illness, which result in 250,000–500,000 deaths per year. The majority of deaths caused by influenza occur in young children and people over 65 (World Health Organization, 2016). Reports suggest that each year up to 20% of the United States population may be infected by influenza…

There are three types of influenza virus, types A, B, and C, each differing in host range and pathogenicity (Taubenberger and Morens, 2008). Type A has been isolated from humans, avian, swine, horses, mink, dogs, seals, and ferrets (Jakeman et al., 1994; Taubenberger and Morens, 2008; Parrish et al., 2015), whilst type B has been isolated from humans, seals (Osterhaus et al., 2000) and ferrets (Jakeman et al., 1994), and type C from humans (Matsuzaki et al., 2002), swine and dogs (Youzbashi et al., 1996). Influenza A and B virions contain several structural antigens and three antigenic surface proteins; HA, NA, and M2/BM2 ion channels (Webster et al., 1992; Hampson and Mackenzie, 2006; Racaniello, 2009; Dormitzer et al., 2011). Influenza virus C only expresses one antigenic surface protein, haemagglutinin-esterase-fusion (HEF), and thus stimulates a lesser immune reaction than types A or B (Taubenberger and Morens, 2008; Racaniello, 2009). Influenza A is the fastest to evolve, at a rate 2–3 times faster than B, whilst C is the slowest…

Much is known about the havoc brought by a virus. Most spectacular is the destruction of the immune system within the lungs by the virus itself, which acts like HIV on steroids:

Throughout the past 300 years there have been 12 pandemics caused by influenza A; the most infamous being the 1918 ‘Spanish flu’ pandemic (Taubenberger and Morens, 2008). In the years between 1933 and 1957 there were nine influenza A (H1N1) epidemics and five influenza B epidemics. The worst of all these epidemics was the 1935–1936 influenza B epidemic that resulted in at least 55,000 deaths. This was closely followed by the 1943–1944 influenza A (H1N1) epidemic which caused 53,000 deaths (Glezen, 1996). Evidently, although influenza B doesn’t cause pandemics, it is still a cause for concern.

During an infection influenza virions attach to and enter host epithelial cells by the binding of viral HA to sialic acid on the host cell which instigates endocytosis and the movement of the virion into the cell within an endosome. The virus then uses/hijacks the host cells ‘machinery’ to replicate and transcribe viral RNA and produce more viral components (Samji, 2009). Progeny virions bud from the host cell, using the host cell membrane as a viral envelope, and go on to infect neighboring host cells (Nayak et al., 2009). As influenza infection develops the virus causes cell damage and death within the host’s airways and up-regulates the production of toxins, causing further destruction. Influenza cytotoxins for example causes necrosis of host cells (Conenello and Palese, 2007; Iverson et al., 2011). Influenza infection, particularly pandemic influenza infection, is known to generate an increased inflammation response within the host, as the body works to rapidly deliver immune cells to the site of infection. This inflammation is a response to the expression of cytokines and chemokines (de Jong et al., 2006; Kash et al., 2006; Kobasa et al., 2007; Rock and Kono, 2008). Virally induced decreased mucociliary activity, the dysfunction of immune cells and the reduction of phagocytosis reduces clearance of the virus from the host airways and the host’s ability to fight the virus (Brundage, 2006; Wu et al., 2011; Cauley and Vella, 2015). In an attempt to limit and control infection, the host immune system kills infected host cells. It does this in several ways, including; the production of perforin by Natural Killer (NK) cells which creates lesions/pores in cell membranes resulting in the induction of apoptosis, apoptosis from tumour necrosis factor (TNF) and FasL and the production of reactive oxygen species from macrophages and neutrophils causing oxidation of cellular lipids, proteins and DNA resulting in cell dysfunction and death (Topham and Hewitt, 2009; Kash et al., 2014; Kash and Taubenberger, 2015). Of course viral infection and/or interference with host processes can cause and direct the pathway of cell death, as is the case for necrosis. Host cell death, whether apoptosis, necrosis or pyroptosis, impacts on the severity and outcome of influenza disease in a variety of ways. Virally induced death of immune cells assist in the evasion of host defenses and hinders the clearance of the virus promoting the development of infection. Studies have shown a 90% reduction of alveolar macrophages in mice within a week of influenza infection, and evidence of necrosis in the remaining macrophages (Robinson et al., 2015). Necrosis and pyroptosis are pro-inflammatory due to their role in the release of cytokines. These cell death pathways allow for the rapid release of intracellular contents, including any viral components, from the infected host cell promoting host inflammatory responses and the formation of a cytokine storm which causes host tissue damage (Cundell et al., 1995; Rock and Kono, 2008; Lamkanfi and Dixit, 2010; Cauley and Vella, 2015). Furthermore infection with some influenza subtypes, for instance H1N1 and H5N1, typically result in lymphopenia, a state of abnormally low levels of lymphocytes, which has been associated with higher viral load. de Jong et al. (2006) found influenza infection caused lower levels of cytotoxic T cell lymphocytes, which would therefore negatively affect acquired immunity (de Jong et al., 2006; Cunha et al., 2009).

Bacterial Co-Infection and Secondary Infections

Laboratory, clinical and epidemiological research has made it abundantly clear that bacterial co/secondary infection can significantly increase the morbidity and mortality of viral infections (Gupta et al., 2008). UP TO 75% OF THOSE INFECTED WITH INFLUENZA THAT GO ON TO ACQUIRE PNEUMONIA, ARE CONFIRMED TO HAVE BACTERIAL CO-INFECTION (Zambon, 2001). Bacterial co/secondary infection of influenza infection appears to occur frequently. Studies have shown that up to 65% of laboratory confirmed cases of influenza infection exhibited bacterial co/secondary infection…

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INFLUENZA OFTEN OCCURS WITH A BACTERIAL CO-INFECTION, And CONSEQUENCES ARE MOST DREADFUL:

Various studies have shown the impact when H. influenzae co/secondarily infects with influenza, and some suggest a level of synergism. The effect of influenza and H. influenzae co-infection verses individual infection of both pathogens is tellingly different; Shope found that co-infection resulted in severe disease or death when on their own H. influenzae and influenza only caused mild infection or disease (Shope, 1931). More recently, Lee E.H. et al. (2010) undertook a similar study which provided comparable results and evidence that influenza and H. influenzae co-infection produces more epithelial cell destruction than single infection with either pathogen (Lee L.N. et al., 2010). Furthermore, they found individual infection caused mild bronchiolitis within 4 days of initial infection, from which the host lung was able to recover. Conversely, co-infection caused bronchial necrosis, bronchial inflammation and bronchitis within the same time period or less, and led to further complication such as epithelial erosion (Lee L.N. et al., 2010). It is now commonly accepted that co-infection results in more severe morbidity and poorer clinical outcome than infection of influenza or H. influenzae alone.

Synergies also occur during co-infection with other bacteria:

…In an act of synergism, S. aureus infection may actually assist influenza infection by increasing the infectivity of influenza; when the virion is being moved into the host cell within an endosome the low pH in the endosome causes a conformational change to the HA [HA(0)] allowing it to be cleaved by host proteases into two subunits [HA(1) and HA(2)]. This cleaving ‘activates’ the HA, mediating fusion between the virus and endosome membrane, ready for the opening of the M2 ion channel so the vRNP (viral ribonucleoproteins) can be released into the host cell where the viral RNA is replicated and transcribed. Several strains of S. aureus produce proteases that cleaves influenza HA; the more protease that is available, the more HA can be cleaved meaning more vRNP can get into host cells meaning overall more progeny virions (Tashiro et al., 1987; Steinhauer, 1999; Samji, 2009). This aspect contributes to the increased severity of disease caused by co-infection…

HOW DID THE FLU OF 1918 KILL? BACTERIAL PNEUMONIA, 95% CASES!

Historical Evidence of CO/Secondary Bacterial Infection During Major Influenza Pandemics

1918 Spanish Influenza Pandemic

The 1918 influenza pandemic was a result of influenza strain A (H1N1). It is considered the most devastating influenza pandemic ever recorded, infecting 50% of the world’s population and resulting in approximately 40–50 million deaths worldwide. India alone suffered 7 million deaths (Potter, 2001; Hilleman, 2002; Brundage, 2006; Michaelis et al., 2009). The main groups of individuals affected by this pandemic were those aged 20–40 years old, in addition to infants and those over 65. Ordinarily only young children and the elderly are the age groups most at risk from influenza, showing how distinctive pandemic strains can be (Potter, 2001). It is suggested that war time efforts meant that influenza easily spread through military camps, allowing the 20–40 years old age range to be more at risk than usual.

There are many published examples of co/secondary bacterial infections during the 1918 influenza pandemic, and pneumonia as a consequence of bacterial infection is estimated to have occurred in up to 95% of deaths during this pandemic (Morens et al., 2008). A majority of those deaths due to secondary S. pneumoniae infection (Brundage and Shanks, 2008; Morens et al., 2008). Many of the examples that detail co/secondary bacterial infection come from outbreaks within army camps…

1957 Asian Influenza Pandemic

This pandemic affected 40–50% of people worldwide. The cause was influenza strain A (H2N2) (Potter, 2001). Although global death toll estimates vary [between 1.5 million (Gatherer, 2009) and 2–4 million (Michaelis et al., 2009)], the death toll in the United States is accurately reported to have been 69, 800 (Klimov et al., 1999; Hilleman, 2002). Post-mortem cultures show evidence of bacterial infection in up to 80% of all severe and fatal cases (Hers et al., 1958; Morens et al., 2008; Gill et al., 2010)… 

Conclusion

Viral infection aids bacterial infection in a number of ways, including unveiling/providing more sites for adhesion, impairing immune responses and causing cell and tissue destruction allowing for the spread of bacteria and development of invasive infection. Bacterial infection is then able to worsen clinical outcome and the severity of disease. Of course viral and bacterial co-infection can be mutually beneficial, further helping viral infection, which is bad news for public health. Although antibiotics can help reduce the impact of co/secondary bacterial infection, we still need to better understand the interactions between viruses, bacteria and their host, and to fully understand all mechanisms of disease. Particularly in light of increased antibiotic resistance and the ability of microbes to adapt and evade vaccine induced immunity.

The aim of this review was to emphasize the historical and continuing threat of influenza and to highlight the risk of bacterial co/secondary infection. Vaccines and antibiotics are readily available, however, with antibiotic resistance at an all-time high, vaccination is becoming even more vital in the fight against influenza epidemics and pandemics and the bacterial co/secondary infections commonly associated. It is important to examine the strains and types of bacteria and viruses being spread amongst and transmitted throughout the general public (or continue to in the case of influenza) to inform clinical treatment and development, particularly in the setting of an influenza epidemic or pandemic. As the threat from influenza is ever changing, we need to ensure we know what strains are circulating, which could cause issue and how they interact with other potential pathogens. This preparation also entails monitoring the changing epidemiology of bacterial pathogens associated with secondary infection, such as capsule switching which help S. pneumoniae evade immunity (Pai et al., 2005a,b).

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Some of these results above are many decades, even a century old… So why the insistence that antibiotics are useless in the case of flu? Well, in the USA, the food industry uses antibiotics massively, in the feed of animals, every day (this is now unlawful in Europe). But not just that, in the USA, antibiotics are used on plants, even “organic” plants… Refined studies have shown that antibiotics resistant mutations evolved in those food industry settings… 

In other words, in the USA, antibiotics help profits grow everyday… The insistence that antibiotics should be avoided in humans maybe have originated as a coverup…

Patrice Ayme 

 

 

 

Didier Raoult’s CURE (Corona Chronicles II)

March 21, 2020

Infectious disease top world expert, professor Didier Raoult, discoverer of dozens of bacteria, an MD and PhD, leads a very large lab and institute he created in Marseilles [1]. Raoult’s findings are found in thousands of publications. Among many other things, he identified the causative agents of several diseases and discovered giant viruses… plausibly a new form of life, no less. (No doubt, if Raoult was American, or, a fortiori Swedish, he would already be a laureate of the Nobel Prize!)

When French citizens were evacuated from China by military flights, they were put under Raoult’s supervision. 

Very interesting results from France with a treatment combining hydroxychloroquine and a common antibiotic (which has an antiviral, yes, antiviral effect). That compound (and chloroquine itself) have been long known to have effects against some coronaviruses. (Trump himself promoted Raoult’s findings… enabling anti-Trump media to accuse Trump to be “non-scientific”!)

These are the first trial data. Yes this was a small trial, and it was open-label (as people are dying conducting double blind experiments is deeply unethical). However, the results are so striking, these objections can be overridden (larger scale studies have been launched in France).

Coronavirus Marseilles Raoult Work’s show that azithromycin plus hydroxychloroquine cures patients in 5 days. That probably works better, the earlier it’s applied.

26 patients were enrolled in the treatment group, with 16 controls. Six patients dropped out of the treatment group: 3 went to the ICU, one dropped out due to nausea, one left the hospital (apparently recovered?) and one died. No one left the two control groups. 15 male and 21 female patients were treated. 6 of them were asymptomatic, 22 had upper respiratory symptoms, and 8 had lower respiratory tract symptoms (all of those had confirmed COVID19 pneumonia by imaging).

The treatment group got 200mg of hydroxychloroquine sulfate three times a day. Six of those patients were also given 500mg azithromycin in addition. The antibiotic dealt with possible bacterial superinfection. Professor Raoult also uses azithromycin for its antiviral effects

There appears to be an effect of hydroxychloroquine. The effect of the hydroxychloroquine – azithromycin combination is notably stronger effect: down to zero virus as measured by nasal swab, in five (5) days.

These are two inexpensive generic drugs with a long history of use in humans. Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine both can have notable side effects, for example, cardiopathy. However, that happens only under chronic usage for cramps (that was discontinued in the USA in the 2000s, for this particular pathology). Brought up in Black Africa, I got malaria more than once, and was given longer treatments of chloroquine. The  treatment of Raoult is only a few days, and should have no adverse effects. Also, as in the case of malaria, chloroquine can be used prophylactically. 

It better work; absent a treatment, COVID19 will be a disaster equal to the “Spanish Flu” of 1918, said, correctly, the Senator head of the Intelligence Committee who admitted to have engaged on insider trading after he was privately briefed. Biden claimed that “Medicare For All, doesn’t work” in Italy. He and his well-heeded PAC and media supporters insisted M4A was the cause of the massacre there. 

However, the USA has, relative to its population, fewer ICU and critical respiratory beds than Italy. Simply, because it blocked (non-US) people coming from China on January 31, the US is delayed by ten days the contagion relative to Italy 9the EU incompetently didn’t block this travel). Expect thousands of Americans to die. And don’t expect the disease to threaten less when it’s warmer: SARS-CoV-2 is progressing in tropical areas… Just as SARS-CoV did.  

Patrice Ayme

***

***

Didier Raoult (born March 13, 1952) is a French biologist. He holds MD and Ph.D. degrees and specializes in infectious diseases. In 1984, Didier Raoult created the Rickettsia Unit at Aix-Marseille University (AMU). He also teaches infectious diseases in the Faculty of Medicine of Aix-Marseille University, and since 1982 has supervised many M.D. and Ph.D. degrees.[1]

Raoult is a world reference for Q fever and Whipple’s disease.[11] 

Since 2008, Raoult has been the director of “URMITE” i.e. the Research Unit in Infectious and Tropical Emergent Diseases, collaborating with CNRS (National Center for the Scientific Research), IRD (Research for the Development Institute), INSERM (National Institute of Health and Medical Research) and the Aix Marseille University, in Marseille. His laboratory employs more than 200 people, including 86 very active researchers who publish between 250 and 350 papers per year and have produced more than 50 patents.[2] Didier Raoult is also involved in the creation of 8 startups to date.

Giant Viruses:

Raoult’s team was the first to discover very large size viruses.

In 2003, Didier Raoult identified with Bernard La Scola a giant amoebic virus, mimivirus,[16] and in 2004 established its genome.[17]

In 2016, this team found in mimivirus a defense mechanism preventing the implantation of virophages in the virus plant (MIMIVIRE).[18] Finally, it has been shown that this virophage could be integrated into the cells in the form of a pro-virophage and that it could be associated with transposon-like structures called transpovirons.[19]

They also discovered Marseilleviruses[20] and Faustoviruses.[21]

The discovery of giant viruses seriously undermines the classification of viruses. Didier Raoult has several times reported that giant viruses are of a different nature than other viruses and that they constitute a 4th branch of microbes known as TRUC for “Things Resisting Uncompleted Classifications”

New bacteria:

Since the 1990s, Raoult and his team have identified and described approximately 96 new pathogenic bacteria[9] and showed their implication in human pathologies. Two bacteria have been named for him: Raoultella planticola and Rickettsia raoultii.

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[2] ““With all due respect to Medicare for all, you have a single-payer system in Italy,” Biden said to Sanders. It doesn’t work there. It has nothing to do with Medicare for all.

***

[This is the Tenth essay of mine on COVID19. The epidemic is rich in philosophical themes, and first of all, our degenerated civilization, and the need to reevaluate all its values!]

Corona Chronicle: 11% Death Rate Or 1%? Yes And No.

March 20, 2020

How to reconcile the observed 10%+ death rate observed, and which I have brandished, and what scientists have told us is going on: 1% death rate? It’s clear where I got the number: 

CLOSED CASES

102,311

Cases which had an outcome:

90,942 (89%)

Recovered / Discharged

11,369 (11%)

DEATHS

These are the graph, in logarithmic form: a doubling means multiplied by ten. One can see strikingly the incompetency of European Leaders. They led so well, they should be led to prison, next.

Now of course very honorable, greatly decorated, well respected, and highly paid scientists have interest to say what pleases their overlords: overlords are more pleased by a 1% death rate than an 11% death rate. But still established establishment scientists should have a sort of reasoning, aside from the self-recognized greatness of their splendor, no? 

They do!

What they do is look at ONE “International Conveyance”, the “Diamond Princess”, anchored at Yokohama, the enormous port immediately south of Tokyo, for a month or so. The Diamond Princess had 712 COVID 19 cases… and 8 (eight) deaths. They forget to tell you (or themselves!) that there are still 14 critical cases (one critical just died today). Also all and any cases were detected, including the mild cases. But, more crucially, the Diamond Princess passengers got treated by one of the very best healthcare systems in the world, Japan’s, in a situation where that system could fully bear all its power on 712 cases. In other words, Japan was not overwhelmed: it has a total of 913 cases (aside from the 712 from the DP), giving it a rate of eight cases per million. By comparison, Italy has a rate of 778 cases per million, and is completely overwhelmed, with 727 deaths in the last 24 hours period.  

What is happening in Italy, as what happened for a while in Wuhan, is that the medical system stop functioning when too many doctors fall sick (more than 2,000 in Hubei… But China could draw on resources from the rest of China: Hubei, 60 million, is not even 5% of China…

So an 11% death rate from COVID19/SARS2 is what one gets, when healthcare systems get overwhelmed. And no, sad clown Pluto Biden, it doesn’t have to do, as you explicitly pretended, with the fact China and Italy have “Medicare For All”.  

In one week, from one flu patient, without confinement, one gets, on average, 9 contaminations. With SARS2/COVID19: 45 contaminations. So the SARS2 exponential grows much faster. The only safe method to block the pandemic is to duplicate what China did, in particular in Hubei: total confinement, except for essential services.

The head of healthcare in Wuhan, the city of eleven million inhabitants at the core of the epidemic went to Milan, Italy, to provide advice (I think his predecessor died). He said confinement in Italy was insufficient; he was shocked to see public transportations still operating.

In South Korea, hyper testing was accompanied by giving the detail of each death. A phone app enables citizens to track the displacement of quarantined individuals in their neighborhood… thus enforcing the quarantine, and avoiding “superspreaders”Under current guidelines from the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, anyone who has come into contact with a confirmed coronavirus carrier is subject to a mandatory two-week self-quarantine. “Contact” is defined as having been within two meters of a confirmed carrier, or having been in the same room where a confirmed patient has coughed.  

I warned that the pandemic, should one do nothing, maybe in the hundreds of millions. Of course, something will, and is being done, very strongly now, by many governments. 

Good. But precious time, and probably dozens of thousands of deaths, could have been prevented, had one used the wisdom of the past… For example in 2003, when Toronto tracked right away 30,000 potential carriers of SARS. 

This pandemic was rendered possible by criminally negligent power brokers, or so-called “leaders”, many of them anxious to sell their stocks while pretending SARS was just a cold. For a while, France and Great Britain, among others, decided to opt for a “herd immunity” strategy, showing that, deep down inside, Johnson and Macron should be prosecuted, just as Pericles was. That was out of sheer ignorance of the property of this virus. Surely the responsible authorities should go to prison for a very long time, no?

Patrice Ayme