The proximal cause of the fall of the Roman state was military: in August 379, by complete surprise, a rogue army of Goth who had been admitted as refugees inside the empire, destroyed the Oriental Roman field army. The fault was emperor Valens’ vainglory: he rejected the advice of the Frankish chief of staff of the Occidental field army to wait for it, it was only a couple of days away. 27 years later, on Christmass day, German nations galloped through the frozen Rhine and a curtain of surprised Franks… In a matter of months, Western Roman plutocracy would lose much of its tax base.
Now the Roman imperial state in the Fourth Century had little in common with the “Restituted Republic” of Augustus… Which itself was a parody of the Roman Republic that existed when Caesar was Consul in 59 BCE (Caesar passed his land redistribution law, by going directly to the National Assembly and its tribunes, ignoring the Senate… Augustus would terminate the Tribunate, hence the Assembly… At that point the tyrannical worm was in the Roman fruit…)
Ancient Rome lived through, and died from, the same process of deindustrialization and de-energizing as part of plutocratization that the West has been experiencing today. That’s the basic cause of the Fall of Rome. The decay of the Republic started immediately after the Second Punic war. One difficulty was that the Republic had become imperial, but it had no fast communication means…that was solvable: in 1791, the Frenchman Claude Chappe developed the optical telegraph, a succession of towers with mechanical arms, and a message would go at 1380 kmh (supersonic). France had a network of 556 stations stretching a total distance of 4,800 kilometers (3,000 mi). Le système Chappe was used for military and national communications until the 1850s.. Now of course, the French had telescopes… But Rome had exquisite glass making and could have developed glasses and then telescopes. The European Middle Ages developed glasses because the precision work of older artisans was appreciated..
And actually the Ancient Greek had developed a very complex optical-hydraulic optical telegraph which depended upon torches…. It’s shown on Trajan’s column…
The truth is, the ravenous, rapacious elite had no interest in saving the Republic, so blocked the development of any science and tech which would have enabled it to do so.
How did we get there?
The morally correct elite, infused with the old Roman Republican traditions had been killed in battle, fighting Carthage and its allies. Just at the battle of Cannae, Among the Roman dead were 28 of 40 tribunes, up to 80 Romans of Senatorial or high magistrate rank, and at least 200 knights (Romans of equestrian rank). It was estimated that 20 percent of Roman fighting men between the ages of 18 and 50 died at Cannae… And Cannae was just one of three tremendous defeats…
… While the greedy landlords of fortified Roman cities thrived and small peasants’ farms got ravaged….
Being a Republic, Rome could draft armies, whereas Carthage, at the time much more of an oligarchic plutocracy, depended upon mercenaries. This, plus the genius of Scipio Africanus, enabled Scipio to land in Africa and defeat Hannibal there…
HOWEVER, after that hard won victory, 17 years of total war, small farms got bought by the exploiters of war, the rich and giant slave driven latifundia, technically illegal, covered the land. (Interestingly this did not happen in Gaul, which kept its small farms; so Gaul ultimately didn’t collapse demographically or economically… differently from Italy; that made Gaul the natural new power center, as became clear in the 6th century…)
The fundamental reason for this socio-economic devastation of the core of Rome is that plutocrats want to evade the laws of the republic, and make deals with distant dictators which they enable in turn. Thus the plebs are rendered powerless, and in turn made unable to resist the elite of rapacious exploiters.
The exact same mechanism of emptying the core is at work today. It’s crucially helped by an ideology of “free trade”… which only Europe respects, thus explaining that the relative socio-economic collapse is greatest there...
When the “Optimates” (the “Best”) tried to take power in Rome they disingenuously pretended that their opponents from the “Populares”, the “Populists” wanted to make themselves “kings”. The epithet was hurled at Gracchi, Marius and his nephew Caesar… Nowadays, it is hinted that Trump wants to become a king… But, more directly, “Populist” itself has become an insult… Whereas the assassins of Caesar disingenuously claimed that they acted in the name of the People, something they found the same day, and thereafter, to be completely false… In the present time, “People” has become an insult outright…
After a very timid start under Obama helping out SpaceX and Tesla (for reasons of sheer greed as politicians invested in these…), reindustrialization got in high gear under Trump… Biden then extended Trump’s work.In Europe, France, which has been most affected by deindustrialization, talks the loudest about reindustrializing… But the road will be harder in Europe… Although Putin should be helping… After all, he is succeeding in his weaponization….
After winning the Cold War against the Soviets, the West relaxed and phased out its Defense Industrial Base (US President Ike’s MIC, the Military Industrial Complex), Professors with as little knowledge of wisdom, history and human nature proclaimed the “End of History”.,, As they considered we had achieved a perfect democratization to go along with our perfect civilization. This was obviously erroneous: the CO2 crisis was real and had no solution, as civilization depended crucially on fossil fuels and the fossil fuelists had paid the ecologists to focus on destroying nuclear energy, that is, the only alternative significant fuel source.
An analogy in Rome was the mining crisis. Rome depended crucially upon metals, for coinage, weapons and architecture. At the peak, Roman annual production of metals was close to 200,000 metric tons. Also total Roman silver was ten times that of the Caliphate in 800 CE… Silver was important for coinage: the Franks got theirs in Eastern Europe. China finally got enough silver for making coins from Potosi, Bolivia, thanks to the Conquistadores (beats carrying around bulky copper.) In the Seventh Century, the metal crisis got so acute that the metallic roofs of Rome were stripped to make weapons against the Arabs.
But Rome had other ecological crises and pandemics: the Roman climate optimum finished just as smallpox appeared…There was also a demographic crisis, perhaps caused by the diminution of democracy. The Barbarians may have been barbaric, but they may have enjoyed more of a perverse form of democracy conducive to a higher birth rate, and certainly better living conditions out there in tents, rather than dense insalubrious conurbations…
After the destruction of the Occidental Roman army in 394 CE at the hand of Theodosius and his Goths, the West was thereafter defenseless. Perceiving weakness, the Barbarians charged in over the frozen Rhine.
The Barbarian tribes were small in numbers: a draft could have created armies of millions of Romans (they would have had to be armed!)… But the will of the Roman plutocrats was to stay in power, and thus make deals with the invaders whenever possible…. Better to associate the Barbarians as warriors… didn’t Augustus have German bodyguards?
There was a great replacement of population, synchronously with the rise of the fascist empire. Nowadays, the same is occurring: in most European countries, onerous taxes and decreased services make it difficult for the natives to have children: the money is redistributed to give immigrants, poor and somewhat illegal at some point a very good time, proportional to the number of children they have….
When you see the world’s wealthiest man, a Frenchman, at the presidential palace, with his family, one of the many top potentates going there, you know where such ideas come from: the European higher class fear a revolution… which would be instigated easily by looking at the tax code… critically… It advantages the wealthiest…
The same situation holds in the USA… But it’s somehow not as degenerated as yet. Reconstituting the Defense Industrial Base is proving difficult: a flood of money can’t replace competence. And competence comes from education, that takes time. In some European countries, and France there again is the poster girl, a society of consumers has been created: all they want is panem et circenses… All they can want is that: they have no other competence.
And the plutocrats know just one thing: competent Westerners may mean their denial. No wonder they were so fond of Putin… But then Putin proved to be his own man… And broke the spell…
In the demise of Rome, the slow rise of crises was a factor: the Roman leaders could argue there was no crisis, just a plague, just some lucky Barbarians, until the system broke, for all to see, between emperor Philip The Arab (who ruled 5 years) and Aurelianus, a generation later….
Now we are facing at the very least, for all to see, nuclear Armageddon (from Putin, and if not him, others arming themselves to the nuclear teeth…), terminal ecological crisis (from half a dozen crises, and pieces of oceans are dying here and there…), and a democratic crisis: dictatorship are appearing all over… Potentially nuclear armed, it’s not a matter of sending a gunship to put in place more amenable types…
Rome could have engaged in an industrial revolution by fostering innovation deliberately and intensely as a government policy. We have this encouragement to innovation now… At least in the USA. We saw it in 1960s, and now again under Trump, followed by Biden… Europe had state encouragement of innovation for centuries… That was launched by the Franks: a Merovingian queen like Brunehilde made a writer such as Fortunatus in Italy a proposal he couldn’t refuse, and he went to her court in Francia.
The European tech singularity was greatly caused by Bathilde’s outlawing of slavery and the sale of children… In the Seventh Century… It was well worth executing a few bishops (bishops loved armies of slaves).
The European pro-innovation, pro-progress tradition has now been considerably weakened by “woke”. “Woke” has been keen to accuse Europe to have invaded the world… although a closer examination shows that Europeans, with their more advanced tech, made to Natives proposal they couldn’t refuse: the conquest of the Aztecs by 1,500 Conquistadores and an army of 100,000 Natives is examplary that way… Amusingly the exception is the USA where a genocide happened. Indeed, the Neolithic occupants were outright destroyed by English speaking colonists… while the French were much more respectful of the Natives (and this ios why the French lost, and why the Spaniards outright stopped the Conquista in the 16 C for ethical reasons…)
The sort of poisonous thinking known under various names according to its various aspects: wokism, “French Theory”, “decolonization”… a current of thought which started to fester especially in France after the bitter victory of World War One, and which the Kremlin and Washington have found profitable to encourage…
The present situation is far from desperate: logically, Europeans should realize their civilization is facing imminent destruction. Differently from Rome in 406 CE, the situation is still recoverable…. But, just like Rome in Fourth Century, it’s a military situation… First and proximal. And just as Rome did not do in the Fourth Century, augmenting democracy would help considerably the military angle.
Good democracy, good military: the Greek city-states, and Republican Rome demonstrated this in ample fashion. Putin is the most militaristic plutocrat, and probably the most satanic… But he arose from his peers, or as plutocrat Lavrov, his foreign minister, says:”our colleagues“… We need to rearm in more than one way…
Patrice Ayme
Superior generalship of Hannibal, and excellent Celtic mercenaries in his center, enabled Hannibal to envelop the Roman army at Cannae and compress it… Under a rain of ballistics (from slingers and archers). Roughly the same scenario happened at Hadrianopolis in 379 CE, six centuries later.
The losses at Cannae had been nearly double those at Adrianopolis… However by the time of Adrianopolis, Rome was a plutocracy and Theodosius would replace the Roman army elite by… the Goths… who had won at Adrianopolis… Whereas after Cannae, Trasimene, etc. even after giant losses, Rome was able to draft more Roman legions… Interstingly the Roman state of 379 CE had ten times more people, hence potentially could have drafted millions…