Opinions about where and how Ukraine should attack, with its depleted means, are to be taken with a grain of salt: disinformation played a crucial role in 1944. The Nazis were told, and believed, that the attacks would come through the Pas De Calais, or the airfield in the alpine Vercors mesa in south-east France. So the Nazis held (Pas de Calais), or sent (Vercors) crack divisions which would have thrown allied troops back into the sea, had they been sent to Normandy.
For a few weeks, the Nazis were one division short of throwing the Allies in the sea. They engaged more th 10,000 troops in Vercors, including rare elite SS paratroopers.
France has tripled her 155mm shell production, to feed Ukraine’s needs, and has sent long range French made Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles to Ukraine. However the number of these missiles is less than 2,000. NATO was not, and is not ready for world war… which is what we have… and why we have it. War production, the Defense Industrial Base, needs to grow enormously to satisfy Ukraine’s needs
The “combined arm approach” means nothing with that capability the Russians have to make enormous, extremely dense minefields in a few minutes, seeded by rockets.
The First World War lasted as long as it did because Germany was able to obtain, from “neutral” countries (US, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden) the crucial materials it needed. When the US entered the war, the blockade became effective and German explosive production collapsed to a tenth of the french production.
We have a similar situation now. Russia rains missiles on Ukraine, and those missiles are full of Western electronics. That needs to stop, the blockade must be made effective.
The “Kaiserreich”, the military dictatorship cum plutocracy run by Kaiser Wilhem II was a fascist regime which knew itself to be condemned long term by socialism, democracy and obsolescence from more open, smarter societies. Its top leaders determined those facts to be true, and decided that a world war was the way out, defeating in quick succession the French Republic, then democratizing and modernizing Russia, before Britain, which did not have an army, could react. Then Britain was supposed to negotiate. This was decided in December 1912. US meddling on June 1 1914, promising a world government with Britain, and the Sarajevo assassination, removing a partisan of peace, the dour Archduke, heir to Austria Hungary but also best friend of the Kaiser, cleared the way.
The Kaiser’s dream of world supremacy crashed down as France counterattacked and nearly destroyed the entire German army at the First Battle of the Marne, 5 weeks after the treacherous attack by a regime of war criminals. A stalemate resulted, until the blockade became effective.
There are lots of analogies between Putin’s Reich and the Kaiserreich. Putin, thought is more of a direct killer… and Putin’s plans and motivations are public. Putin also wants the world to know he will kill whoever is in the way: thus the killing of the boss of the Wagner Group, Prigozhyn was made in full daylight, with a nice video of his crashing plane.
Wagner boss Prigozhyn’s plane shot down north-west of Moscow, August 23, 2023.
Truth telling by Prigozhyn:
The invasion was nothing more than a massive land grab by the Russian oligarchy, Prigozhin charged, designed to enrich the country’s powerful elites while poor Russians served as cannon fodder. Russian claims that a Nazi regime in Ukraine, backed by NATO, was about to attack Russia were lies, Prigozhin said. The war was started by the Russian oligarchy to benefit themselves and gain power. In his rant, Prigozhin did not criticize Russian President Vladimir Putin by name, focusing instead on the broader Russian elite, and specifically on his personal enemy Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
“The Ministry of Defense is trying to deceive the public and the president and spin the story that there were insane levels of aggression from the Ukrainian side and that they were going to attack us together with the whole NATO bloc,” Prigozhin said on his Telegram channel on June 23. The truth, he said, was that “there was nothing extraordinary happening on the eve of February 24,” the day last year when Russian invaded. Ukraine was not planning any kind of attack against Russia, he added.
Russia’s invasion “was started for a completely different reason,” Prigozhyn said. “What was the war for? The war was needed for Shoigu to receive a hero star. … The oligarchic clan that rules Russia needed the war,” he said. “The mentally ill scumbags decided: ‘It’s OK, we’ll throw in a few thousand more Russian men as cannon fodder. They’ll die under artillery fire, but we’ll get what we want.’” What they wanted was Ukrainian land the plutocrats around Putin could real-estate speculate with… Prigozhyn explained.
“Shoigu killed thousands of the most combat-ready Russian soldiers in the first days of the war,” Prigozhin said, adding that the invasion began even as Zelenskyy and Ukraine were eager for peace. The Ukrainian leader “was ready for agreements. All that needed to be done was to get off Mount Olympus and negotiate with him.” [Zelinskyi was the pro-Russian presidential candidate, ready to make concessions to Putin. He was elected on that peace plan over his more combative predecessor Perevshenko!]
Prigozhin thus destroyed the main argument used by Russian propagandists and their Western lackeys: that NATO’s eastward expansion since the end of the Cold War caused the war in Ukraine. Putin has constantly railed against NATO, and his misleading narrative that the U.S. caused the war in Ukraine by pushing for alliance’s expansion has resonated widely among pro-Putin fascist lovers in the West.
It will be a slow grind, like the world wars of the Twentieth Century. An old Kremlin mentality, that tyranny is best for Mother Russia, is trying to expand against a more democratically inclined world. The forces in presence are unbalanced in many ways: the leader of Russia is probably even more unbalanced, more pathologically evil, and in a very similar way, than Adolf Hitler himself (after all Hitler never threatened to kill all of humanity, just a long list with the French, the Jews, etc.)… but then Putin masters the imbalance of nukes… Yet can only be unbalanced as his greatest ally, China, wants to recover much of what the Kremlin owns or controls…
With such a set of ambushes and imbalances all over, the West has to be careful and steady… But re-armament must be a priority (it’s not yet).
Starting with rearmament of moods… In the past, the Netherlands and Denmark, served, crucially, the fascist invading Kaiserreich, and Hitler’s Reich… Now they are going to send F16s to Ukraine… Not very many, but the right mood, the democratic mood, is now animating them. Progress.
Patrice Ayme