Archive for the ‘world war three’ Category

Let Ukraine Free Crimea

January 19, 2023

Illogical cowards say: Czar Putin threatened to nuke us, let’s do what he wants, whatever he wants, this is safer! Logical heroes say: a terrorist threatened to nuke us, let’s arrest him! 

You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour and you will have war.”…sadi Winston Churchill to those who ephemerally appeased Hitler. 

Prince Vladimir of Kyiv, more than 1,000 years ago, conquered Crimea from the Khazars who had invaded and occupied the peninsula a few generations earlier. So the Ukrainians liberated the Greeks! Dorian Greece had settled the area 17 centuries before Hence the Greek names of southern Ukraine: Melitopol (City of honey), Mariupol (city of Mary), etc… 

Prince Vladimir then converted to Christianity (from his original Viking faith).

Kievan Rus was the largest state in Europe, and was so democratic, it turned into its undoing when the Mongols invaded: no coherent defense could be mounted as the Mongols picked up one Kievan principality after another, finishing with the annihilation of Kyiv in December 1240. Then Alexander Nevsky, an enthusiastic Mongol collaborator who founded the Kremlin anti-democratic and theocratic doctrine, was made Prince of Kyiv. The Mongols would return to destroy Kyiv again later, and then the Kremlin, for centuries tried all it could to destroy ever more any democratic state in and around present day Ukraine.

Thus this is an old fight: obscurantism and tyranny from Moscow against enlightenment and diversity in Kyiv. 

Nowadays, though, with a small planet and nukes all over, democracy can’t afford to lose that fight, because it would be the last it would lose.  

Modern tech enables tyranny to become worse than ever. We can’t have tyrant blackmail democracy with nukes. Actually tyrants should have no nukes: hated by their own populations, they have interest to wage foreign wars to justify domestic terror, as the Kremlin did, for 8 centuries.

***

The attempted destruction by the Kremlin of a democracy has already lasted a quarter as long as the attempted destruction of democracy in Europe by the Kaiser and his goons in 1914-1918. 

We think now is the right time to intensify our support for Ukraine,” Britain’s foreign secretary, James Cleverly, said while on a visit to Washington in 2023. “We can’t allow this to drag on and become a kind of First World War attritional-type stalemate.

The reason for the length of WWI was that the Kaiser and his goons were able to avoid a full Franco-British blockade in 1914-1917, as crucial goods, typically shipped from the USA, reached Germany through the “neutral” Netherlands and “neutral” Denmark. France and Britain protested in vain: they were not going to issue an ultimatum to their rambunctious, self-obsessed US child.

***

When the US belatedly joined its democratic parents, France and Britain in war against the fascist Prussian invader, the blockade became effective. The German military and civilian economy collapsed: by 1918, the French explosive production was more than ten times that of Germany; and the Allied breakthrough in southern Europe deprived Germany of food… 

At this point, the genocidal Kremlin tyrant has few friends: India and China informed him that he must not use nukes. So Putin has decided to boost the size of his army and weapon production, the latter rendered possible by a breaching of the blockade (say through the Caucasus mountains). 

However, during a long war, tyrants can make friends, or force coups in otherwise unfriendly nations: history is replete with such examples of desperate tyrants going for broke: faced with torturous extinction, they try whatever… and sometimes they score. Putin claims to have achieved an “union” with Belarus. Well, not really, but conveniently Putin’s main opponent in Belarus died… As so many of Putin’s opponents have died recently.

The longer this war goes on, the more dangerous it gets.

And democracy, representative or not, can’t afford not to win it: should thermonuclear tyranny win, the same concept will go for broke, again and again.

Let’s not forget, as the forces of evil known as the WEF, the World Economic Forum, gather at Davos to conspire in plain sight of the entire planet, protected by 5,000 soldiers, that the WEF made Putin one of their masterpieces. Putin even became one of the architects of Davos, as the Kremlin nuclear dictator met very officially with his chairman and founder, Klaus Schwab, his evil name, to plot in plain sight.

Amazingly, so great is Putin’s propaganda control on the Western pseudo-left, pseudo-ecology, and much of the population of failed states, that many deluded souls believe that Putin, that master piece of world plutocracy, is actually an opponent of the world plutocracy.

The credulity, stupidity and venality of many on the left has been amazing consider the French and German supposedly socialist PMs around 2000 CE, making deals with the Kremlin and its agents, such as European pseudo-ecologists… How did that advance socialism, or Europe? Or on the right: consider Brexit, or the invasion of Iraq (which aimed at making fracking profitable and lift the US as the world’s fossil fuel superpower, once again…). Or consider the subprime, zero-interest, and COVID Ponzi scheme… Consider Fauci, financing the Wuhan Institute of Virology to make lethal and hyper contagious bat coroonaviruses, even more so… Biden finally fired him discreetly, and his successor’s discourse is diametrically opposed…  

***

One may wonder how come 51 (fifty-one) representative democracies are arming Ukraine? … if they are controlled by the world plutocracy? As I hold…. 

The answer is that those representative oligarchies claim to be democracies, people-powers. So world plutocracy attempted to control them, and achieved great, but not full control: appearances have to be maintained, lest mobs overrun national assemblies… 

When the armed people of Ukraine showed their power by repelling 200,000 professional maniac killers of Putin, killing many in the process, the representatives of these representative democracies, who view themselves as really representing democracy, had to get along. Now they are progressively warming up to the realities of war….  When Obama let Putin invade Crimea and then the Donbas, a process was started, as when the world let Japan invade Manchuria in 1931: Japan claimed it was reconstructing China… Representative democracies condemned, 42 to 1 the Japanese army invasion. Japan, one of the League four permanent members (with France, UK, Italy) had to resign.

In retrospect, clearly, what should have been done was to arm China and blockade Japan. By the late 1930s, Japan produced only 7% of the oil it consumed. It imported the rest, with 80% coming from the U.S., mostly California, and 10% from the Dutch East Indies. The USA waited until August 1, 1941 to block the exportation of oil to Japan. By then Japan had killed millions in China and Indochina. 

Arming China was done much later and through a Private Military Corporation, the Flying Tigers

Wisdom teaches to do all of this, to make war, faster. Extending torture and temptation will be bad for all… So let the Ukrainian free Crimea again!

Patrice Ayme

The Greeks colonized Southern Ukraine 16 centuries before Prince Vladimir/Vlodimir freed Crimea from the Khazars, and two millennia before Kremlin Russia arose from being the tax collector of the Mongols:

P/S: The essence of the essay above was banned, censored, vilified and unpublished by the New York Times.

France Wakes Up In Ukraine Bringing Fatally Comical Kremlin’s Antics

January 6, 2023

PUTIN, TERRORIZED BY FRENCH & US ADVANCED WEAPONS, CALLS FOR A CEASEFIRE!

Abstract: Victim of its own philosophy of  hedonism, laziness, entitlement, superficialism, wokism, Politically Correct thinking and judiciary, Europe disarmed to the point that most European weapon programs were experimental and demonstrative, rather than practical and capable of fighting a serious war. Meanwhile Europe encouraged the Kremlin to believe it could get away with being a force that mattered, and still mysteriously profited from the aura of decolonization from way back in the 1950s, when the tyrannical USSR and its gigantic empire was presented as good and liberating, and democratic Europe colonizing and oppressive..

When Putin invaded in a way that couldn’t be denied anymore, European countries found themselves defenseless. This greatly explained the apparent French and German reluctance to help Ukraine: they were not ready to fight Russia, from lack of armaments. This has not changed much: building weapons takes years. But the Russian military power has been considerably degraded.

French president Macron suddenly changed his ways, deciding to send to Ukraine the world’s most sophisticated anti-ballistic … And then… tanks!

Finally!

But there may be a method to the madness: European countries, NATO, were too weak militarily to counterattack boldly. Within a day, tyrant Putin proclaimed a unilateral ceasefire!

Just as in a comic book for little kids: the Putin chicken was not playing anymore!

***.  

So the ex head of Roscosmos, the Russian NASA is a fanatic of Putin and the Kremlin Above All spirit. So Dmitry Rogozin goes to Ukraine to fight.Next he and a vast throng of Kremlin grandees gather in a hotel to celebrate Rogozin’s 59th birthday. What do you think happens? Shells fired by Ukrainians explode, the head of Roscosmos is hit in the spine. He is evacuated, operated on. He is a man of the world, he has negotiated and collaborated with NASA, ESA, and the French CNES, among others. 

The surgeons extract shrapnel from the Roscosmos chief’s spine. The Kremlin grandees thought they were too far from the front to be shelled. But not far enough for GPS guided rocket assisted shells from a French Caesar gun. 

The French shell shrapnel is identified in that Roscosmos’ spine.

The head of Roscosmos thinks of himself as smart. So he sent the shrapnel to president Macron of France, the one who provided the Caesar guns. “Please pass on the fragment cut from my spine by surgeons to Emmanuel Macron,”

What does Macron do? Well, he reacts as he should have had, from the start. With a bit of delay, Macron has become smart too. Macron may have finally discovered that talking to Putin is like talking to Hitler: no point talking to hate personified, and self-delusion of such grandeur, one can remake history as it never was.

Or maybe Macron and France, just as Scholtz and Germany, confronted to the unthinkable, Hitler reincarnated, thermonuclear version, were trying to gain time. Eastern Europe gave lots of weapons to Ukraine, but often from old Soviet procurement.

You see, unbelievably, the leaders of the West didn’t see the obvious: in a mechanism very similar to what happened with Hitler, the leaders of the West and their think tanks, or more exactly their Western oligarchs, had decided that, because Putin, like Hitler, had been enabled by them, they owned him, just as in the 1930s their predecessors thought they owned Hitler, or Mussolini, or Hirohito, or Stalin… But all they were left with was Spain’s Franco.... 

Indeed, vainglorious vengeance minded idiots like Putin and Hitler resent being owned, and they are too stupid to know their masters

The end result is that the West, including to some extent the US, but particularly Western Europe, was not ready for war: they thought that, since they wanted peace, they should make war impossible, by being unable to conduct it. Putin only saw he could grab the cake, and nobody could stop him. The tyrant said so explicitly in 2014: “the problem Europe has is that I can be in Kyiv in two weeks“. To appease Putin, Obama sent MREs (Meals Ready to Eat to the Ukrainians). Later, Trump would send some anti tank weapons… But then, shortly after Biden’s election, the US Democratic Congress stopped the planned delivery of those weapons. Delivery was resumed six months later, in November 2021, but by then Putin had decided to attack (because he withheld gas delivery to Europe as soon as summer 2021)

Germany was, and is, incredibly weak, Britain had no army, as usual, and France was only strong in her aviation and nuclear forces. Western European weapons were better than the Russian ones (which used crucially Western electronics, or even French military equipment)… But there were all too very few. 

Thus France and Germany had little to provide, and budget constraints. Ukrainians, though, were told to pass direct contracts with the French and German military industrial complexes. Until recently, they didn’t (I don’t know why; maybe they have no  money; US weapons are free… They just buy good will…)

In any case, Macron gets Rogozin’s shrapnel… back to the sender!

What does he do? Macron suddenly sees at last that he is confronted to madmen who feel so entitled they take for granted that them getting hurt when they invade a democracy is… An outrage! In other words Putin and his entourage are maniacs beyond belief (Macron had already said this about Putin who, Macron said, was laughing when hearing about alleged atrocities of the Russians in Ukraine: those are actors, he told Macron… who added he really didn’t know what to say, in front of such a level of lunacy…

Once I knew a mad woman, and tried to help her. I even visited her in her psychiatric asylum (she apparently became psychotic from smoking pot, by the way…) I remember listening to her. She thought the CIA was after her… They were really coming, at the door… Listening to the entourage of Putin sounds similar… 

Macron decides that France will send French made tanks to Ukraine! These are the first  Western tanks sent to Ukraine… (And from a NATO founding member!).

The French decision was “the first time a Western-designed tank will be delivered to Ukraine. Symbolically, it’s important,” said François Heisbourg, senior adviser for Europe at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

In the following days the US and Germany decided to send armored personnel carriers (which are not tanks)… because France decided to provide tanks with powerful guns, the AMX 10. Germany and the US followed, with simple armored personnel carriers a day later. Those APCs are armed with a 26 mm gun. The AMX10 French tank can pulverize dozens of armored personnel carriers in minutes with its 105 mm gun. By comparison, the famous M4 Sherman tank of WWII had a 75 mm gun…  AMX 10 are also mounted on enormous wheels, not tracks, and this means that they can move much faster, and further, than tracked vehicles… And Ukraine favor swift advances through bewildered Russian orcs (the “orc” label to qualify savage eastern invaders is more than 1,000 years old…)

France is also sending to Ukraine ASTER 30 NT, an anti-aircraft, anti-ballistic, 60 gs acceleration (that is 600 meters per second change of speed, per second, one mile per second interceptor also known as MAMBA, or “Sea Viper” (on UK Royal Navy ships). ASTER is for AeroSpatiale TERminale.  It’s the French Patriot, but more modern.

Finally. Advanced Western heavy weapons for Ukraine.

France often congratulates herself to be the country of human rights, and rightly so… Not just for enabling the USA to win its war of independence, or for the Declaration of the Rights of Man of 1789… Or for recognizing the equal rights of gay people in the… Sixteenth Century. But also for creating England, Germany, repelling enslaving Islam from 721 CE to… much more recent times… and for outlawing the slave trade of citizens as early as the Seventh Century… And even earlier than that, by putting an end to Christian anti-heretic terror.

One must crush infamy, as Voltaire put it.

What’s more infamous than Putin?

Even Hitler didn’t threaten to extinguish all of humanity, but Putin did (and his allies, friends if not lovers like the head of Russia Today insist that Putin will engage in a nuclear world war, and believe that’s a good thing! [1]. After the war, they should all be tried for crimes against humanity.)

Suddenly, apparently struck and dumbfounded by large Western weapons coming his way, Russian Tyrant Vladimir Putin’s claim that Russian forces will conduct a 36-hour ceasefire in observance of Russian Orthodox Christmas. It is likely an information operation intended to damage Ukraine’s reputation… but it may also reflect the desperate state of the Russian Donetsk front, and an attempt to reposition and arm units damaged by Ukrainian fire.

Putin has to be relentlessly defeated. Anything less will actually augment the risk of nuclear war. By encouraging him and his helpers 

Patrice Ayme
Sent to Ukraine now: French tank AMX 10 firing its main 105 mm gun in Afghanistan [2]:

[1] Margarita Simonyan, an intimate of Putin, obviously, and one of the primary mouthpieces for the Kremlin, said: “Either we lose in Ukraine, or the Third World War starts. I think World War Three is more realistic, knowing us, knowing our Putin.

“The most incredible outcome, that all this will end with a nuclear strike, seems more probable to me than the other course of events….“This is an horror… But on the other hand, it is what it is. We will go to heaven, while they will simply croak… We’re all going to die someday.”

(She said that as early as April 2022. Shortly afterward, RT and similar Nazi Kremlin propaganda was banned from Europe. Since then she repeated it many times. 

***

[2] The French invented tanks… Actually, French tanks were the first motor vehicles on land (18th Century; just a few were made). Here’s an excerpt from a former US Marine that once served together with the French forces in Afghanistan, detailing his experience about this Armored fighting vehicle in particular.
One giant advantage the French had over us was with their use of tanks. We maintain an armored force that’s fantastic at defeating T-80s crossing the Fulda Gap, not quite so fantastic at fighting insurgents in mountainous valleys. The French had AMX-10(RCR)s, light wheeled tanks that were perfect for counterinsurgency combat. They were a tremendous force multiplier.
One night before a major operation, I was laid out in the dirt on an outpost perimeter. I had fallen asleep at midnight. At 3 a.m. a tremendous explosion woke me. I lay still for a few moments, then asked a Marine on guard, “What the hell was that?”
He answered, “I don’t know, but something went right over our heads.”
When the sun rose, I was stunned to see an AMX-10 halfway up a mountain behind the outpost. A brave and/or stupid tank crew had rolled up a narrow trail in the dark, and hit some Taliban.
I didn’t envy the poor driver who had to negotiate that trail. Or the loader who I’m sure had to walk ahead of the tank, knowing that if he made a mistake his crew was rolling down the mountain. As a former tanker, I can tell you that driving a tank up a mountain in the dark isn’t something cowards do.” ~ Chris Hernandez, Former US Marine tanker and infantryman-turned-author.

If You Want Peace, Arm Ukraine To The Max ASAP

December 28, 2022

There is such a thing as military science, comprising, in part, the study of past wars. There are patterns.

Humanity is good and, or evil, according to prospects and circumstances. According to the law of action equals reaction, any violence will bring at least the same equal and opposite violence. One does not stop a modern military force through negotiations, but by defeating it on the battlefield. Defeat does not imply necessarily direct confrontation: McArthur, through island hopping, defeated the Japanese imperial army by circumventing its strong points and cutting it off: no food, and no fuel or ammunition. Most Japanese imperial soldiers in WWII in the Pacific theater died from starvation.

In 1931, a rogue Japanese army attacked Manchuria, seizing it from China. Tokyo was aghast. But the offensive was lightning fast, and a success, so Tokyo did nothing. In retrospect, World War Two had started: for the next ten years, the Japanese army would invade China ever more, fostering a genocide. Japanese army brutality would encourage Stalin to kill 6 million Ukrainians in 1933 (Holodomor). Hitler followed suit, making the “Axis” with Japan and fascist Italy, and invading Spain in 1936. France nearly helped the Spanish Republic… But the UK and US were opposed to it.

And Japan was fueled… by US oil. 

When France and Britain declared war to Hitler, that dictator was allied to the Kremlin (providing oil to the Reich, among other things). The US reacted by accusing France and Britain of “belligerence” and applied sanctions.

When France fell to the Nazis, the US didn’t even bark (Canada sent troops, which were beaten). Instead, FDR, having forgotten his “guarantees” to France, and after seven years of effectively pro-Nazi policies (covered up by criticism of Hitler), sent his right hand man to the junta in Vichy. The very dark deep US state, its universities, etc. had interest to see the French empire collapse: it would become part of the US empire. World government, ladies and gentlemen! 

Two to three million died in the French empire during WWII, up to 15 times US loss of lives. It’s a general feature of WWII that, so great was the destruction, including of archives, that sometimes one has no idea how many people died. Early estimates of the number of Chinese killed were from six to ten million. Most recent estimates are more than 50 million (even Japanese media now admits very high numbers)! After the war, many governments had no interest in revealing the extent of their failure to protect their own population… Or that they unconditionally, yet stealthy, surrendered to the victorious US deep state and its greedy plutocratic corporations…

In other words, WWII happened greatly because of divisions among the leading democracies and their friends… Many pursued their personal agenda. As usual, US plutocrats were allowed to run rampant, creating not just profit, but havoc by empowering dictators. 

This time, contrarily to what happened in the 1930s and early 1940s, confronted with the blatantly genocidal invasion of Ukraine, democracies have been in one block. Democracies have apparently been instructed by what happened in WWII: then, in the 1930s and early 1940s, the initial languor and disunion of democracies, and even their crass interest (not just the USA, but also Switzerland, Sweden, etc.) made the tyrannies strong. The democracies did not react properly when fascist Japan (invading China), fascist Italy (invading Ethiopia, Spain), and fascist Germany (invading the Rhineland, Spain) engaged in world war activities. Had the democracies acted in one block, early on, World War Two and its holocausts would not have happened.

So the democracies acted correctly this time: a fascist acted up, Putin, and invaded a democracy, which cried for help. The democracies passed the ammunition. In 1936, when fascist Germany organized the invasion of the Spanish Republic by a rogue army, the Spanish Republic asked the democracies for ammunition. Socialist France said yes, and then no, because the Anglo-Saxon leaders seemed to have liked what they saw, war in Europe. 

So this time the democracies are passing the ammunition. Good. But they are running out of ammunition.

At the peak of the fighting in East Ukraine’s Donbas region, Russia was using more ammunition in two days than the entire stock of the British military, according to the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank. Europe has ideas, but no weapons. The Kremlin is the opposite: plenty of weapons, little mind. 

***

It has helped this endeavor, helping Ukraine to survive, that the USA is, in the guise of reinforcing and arming Europe, has been able to extend juicy military contracts all over, turning all European powers, except France, so far, into military satellites. In particular, the US has sold F35 “stealth” fighter-bombers all over, and these are contracts meant to last 40 years… When a power agrees to buy 50 F35s, that’s 5 billion dollars, before maintenance and support, and there is no money for an equivalent European system. Now the increasing dependence of US manufacturing and military has been extended to anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems [1]. 

Negotiating with Putin is impossible: as a tyrant who has killed too many already, he has to win, or die, he and his kind. Right, the US is extending its empire, somewhat irreversibly… But, well, the Europeans made love, not war, and now that war is upon them, they are not ready physically or mentally to engage that way. Loving Putin is not an option anymore, love didn’t capture Putin and his clique, so Europeans have to let the US make war on Putin. As ancient Greeks used to say, the weak do what they must, the strong, what they can. By giving Ukraine the means to defend itself, the US incited all of Europe but France to become a US client state. This is a giant investment coup, which will profit the USA long term. The rest is creative destruction, nothing that high quality immigration can’t easily overcome.

The choice now is between the not so benign US empire of plutocracy, or thoroughly genocidal Kremlin Nazism (fake National-Socialism of real oligarchy).  

To prevent Putin’s win, all and any classical weapons should be provided to Ukraine, As Soon As Possible. Ukraine can bomb all Russian cities, just as Russia has bombed all Ukrainian cities. WWII blossomed because maximal war measures were not taken by democracies early enough.

In war, momentum is important: Ukraine has it now. If Putin can get Russia in a state of total war and total mobilization, thus total tyranny, so much the better for him, because he is the tyrant. Now if that tyrant blossoms that way, many other tyrants, or would-be tyrants, will be so inspired. This basically happened after a rogue Japanese army invaded Manchuria: tyrants, would be tyrants and their fellow travelers got inspired all over.

And history doesn’t truly repeat itself: now there are nukes. The Chinese tyranny is set on acquiring enough to destroy the world (by more than quadrupling its strategic nuclear weapons). All this will make the world ever more unstable, by switching from a two body problem (Russian tyranny + USA) to a three body problem (Russia, US, China).

In 1939, it took barely more than a week to expel Russia from the Society of Nations (UN version 1), after the Kremlin attacked Finland to invade and eradicate it. What are we waiting to expel Russia from the UN? That would solve the problem of the Russian veto at the UNSC. 

Russia should stick to culture, and sort of disarm, like the rest of Europe: here below a cathedral in Saint Petersburg… Magnificent:

[1] France has the Rafale active stealth fighter-bomber. The F35 is actually an imitation of the Rafale, but more oriented to passive stealth from the frontal aspect in some radar frequencies. The F35 would be better in some SEADs (Suppression Electronic Air Defenses). The Rafale has proven imminently capable in SEADs during a real war in Libya (F35 has barely been engaged by Israel in combat in Syria). Moreover, the Rafale is much more competent in “beast mode” (fully loaded with ammunition.

***

Europe, but for France (and Italy), have opted for US anti-ballistics with Patriot… While France produces the just as competent anti-ballistic Aster (and Italy and the UK are also Aster equipped). By ordering Patriot instead of Aster, countries such as Germany and Poland ingratiate themselves to, and become clients of, the US, not France. Ordering Patriot is an application to the status of a US subsidiary state

Fire Generals Sympathetic To Fascism

November 13, 2022

The defeat of France by the Nazis in May-June 1940 could likely have been avoided by just one factor: firing the Commander In Chief, Gamelin, on the job since 1931. Several French Prime Ministers intended to do it several times, but it didn’t happen, although the reasons the PMs had to fire Gamelin were prescient. Most prominent of all reasons, Gamelin was not exhibiting enough enthusiasm in fighting fascism. Gamelin made many decisions which were ridiculous, foolhardy, catastrophic, and completely outside of millennia of military science… And Gamelin made strategic mistakes on or before 1936. In 1939-40 his errors became astronomically baffling (for example sending the French reserve as far from France as possible!) Gamelin was fired within 5 days of the all out invasion, but by then Gamelin had ordered irreparable errors.

Studying Gamelin’s horrendous ways (Gamelin used landlines or messengers, not wireless radio as the Nazis did), one comes out with the impression that Gamelin wanted the Nazis to win… And that is confirmed, when he admits in his memoirs, written after WWII, that he, Gamelin, was more worried by the Jewish Socialist French Prime Minister Blum in 1936, than by the Nazi tyrant who had invaded Spain and the Rhineland the same year!

The top US general advocates to force Ukraine to negotiate with Putin. This is more than deplorable. It is a betrayal of democracy. It’s a cause for dismissal.

Right the democracies are running out of ammunition, and the Pentagon is fetching basic artillery shells all the way to Korea. But that’s because the democracies are in denial that they are in a situation similar to 1936. Had the democracies counterattacked the fascist regimes in 1936, or stopped collaborating with them (by sending fuel to Hitler, Mussolini and Hirohito, among other things)… World War Two in its full rage and attending genocides, would have never happened. In 1936, the British and US ground forces were tiny, completely unable to fight a world war, so UK and US decided that there was no world war, and that there would be no world war, as long as they averted their eyes from genocide (having deported 40,000 Ukrainian choldren from Kherson Oblast alone, the Kremlin regime is clearly genocidal…).

The Ukrainians are well equipped, because they are defending themselves and 50 democracies provide them with weapons, and even more with other non-lethal assistance. Now, clearly the democracies had decided peace would last 1,000 years. Instead a tyrant has threatened them to be visited “with destruction as they had never seen in their history” (to use Putin’s exact expression).

So the democracies are not armed either in quality and quantity to fight the world war they find themselves engaged in.

Some will pretend that this is not a world war. Such a denial is typical. Indeed, in the 1930s, there was clearly a world war situation in 1936, by the time when Hitler helped invade Spain and occupied the Rhineland, while Italy attacked Ethiopia, and Japan pushed deeper into China. However, it took another five years for the USA to get ready to fight a world war. France and Britain, who had declared war to Hitler were themselves slack in getting enough weapons at the ready (in particular France didn’t arm hundreds of brand new fighter planes… and Britain had a tiny army) 

Ukrainians can, and will fight through the winter. Winter is a friend of armored units maneuvering on hard ground. 

Russia is a corrupt tyranny, its soldiers are ill equipped, ill trained, ill motivated and will suffer through winter. They must surrender: Putin has resurrected “blocking sections” shooting fugitives.  

That the top US general advocate negotiating with the tyrant, the first tyrant who ever threatened to annihilate humanity, is not tolerable. Fighting Putin is like fighting a rattlesnake inside one’s bed: you can’t stop and go cuddly all of a sudden, just because you are ahead at some point. Any pause in the fighting will benefit Putin, as it will give him replenishment, and the opportunity to look so terrible that his enemies have to cease-fire.

Ceasefire was what the French Republic did with the Nazis on June 23 1940. US betrayal of France was an important reason for it (US “guarantees” given by FDR were not respected. Instead FDR sent his right hand man 5 star admiral Leahy, recognizing the collaborationist Vichy junta explicitly). 

All those advocating for a cease-fire with Putin advocate for a situation similar to that with Hitler when France agreed to a cease-fire in June 1940.

Ukraine can and should fight through winter. It fights for all of us. 

 France actually had the means to keep on fighting in July 1940, by retreating to Corsica, and North Africa.  Hitler could never have got there (the French Navy and Air Force were too strong, even without counting the British air force and navy). Why this did not happen has everything to do with the USA’s cat and mouse game with Europe: the USA had given guarantees to France in helping to fight Nazism, and then defaulted spectacularly on those guarantees in 1939-40. Understandably, many French leaders did not feel like doing most of the fighting and dying as in 1914-18, just to see the US grab most of the fruits of victory!

… And the question is: are we facing something similar today? Trying to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory? Yes, production and quality of weapons has to dramatically increase in the democracies, should they want Earth not to turn into a hellscape. So what? Nothing new there. Democracy is expensive.

Patrice Ayme

***

Notes:

Context of the WWII cartoon below which is making scathing fun of US pro-Nazi policies of 1939-40: when the commanding US general finally arrived in France in 1917, after three years of the French Republic being attacked and invaded by the fascist imperial German plutocracy of the Kaiser, he said: “La Fayette we are here!”. Both in 1914-1917 and in 1939-42, US powerful US plutocrats were entangled with the fascit regimes in Germany… to the point of insuring the survival of these fascist regimes. For example in WWI, after the US finally participated in the blockade of fascist Germany, German shell production collapsed and became a tenth of French production…

Auschwitz and similar events can be traced directly to the US’s astounding betrayal of democracy in 1939-40. Not only that but there were explicit guarantees to France, and also France (in two ways) and Britain are the parents of the USA… Not just allies. That Hitler basically planned to kill all Jews, like Putin basically plans to kill all Ukrainians (what Putin and Lavrov call fighting to the last Ukrainian… accusing others of the idea, but actually promoting the notion by evoking it…) 

***

ON Military Momentum During A Rout: When an army is routed, it is important to keep pushing it… That’s called a rout. World War Two showed several examples of this. Reciprocally, the Nazis, after a calamitous defeat in July-August 1944, pushed by the disembarkment in Normandy and Provence, were able to stabilize the front because of the one-bridge-too-far UK-US offensive in Belgium/Netherlands which turned into a costly semi-defeat for the democracies. The Germans actually called this miraculous stabilization the “Miracle on the Western Front“. If the bridge-too-far offensive had not been unlucky, with the presence of undetected SS armor, the Nazi Reich would have promptly collapsed in a matter of weeks, as intended.

Right now the Ukrainian are routing the Russians. That Mark Milley, the US C In C uses the occasion of a rout of Putin’s forces by the Ukrainian democracy to urge for “negotiations”, a cease-fire, that is, surrender is cause enough for dismissal. The ex C in C in France is advocating a similar surrender. One should not underestimate the “Hybrid Warfare” promoted by Gerasimov, the present Russian C In C. That includes betrayal by supposed adversaries which are actually secret allies. An excellent example is what happened with the French Communists in 1939-41, when their master in the Kremlin was allied officially with Hitler. This had dramatically adverse consequences for the military preparedness of France (planes were unarmed, less the Communists grabbed the guns…) 

Democracy Against Fascism. So Boost Defenses: This Is World War Three.

October 22, 2022

This is a world war of democracy against fascism, it has to be taken with the utmost seriousness. Islamist Iran has chosen to help the Kremlin, and should be treated accordingly. Iran should be fought, and Israel should be aware that Iran is training in Ukraine. Silly Iranian drones produced in great quantity with tech grabbed all around the world, are having devastating effects. Not just in killing civilians, but in draining stocks of Ukrainian air defenses (which are refurbished S300 from the USSR, mostly).

Europe should not turn over-confident that Ukraine will win. Rifts may be appearing, because Germany is more willing to finance the US military-industrial complex… by purchasing US made systems rather than financing existing European ones which are similar or even better [1]. 

China is staying out of full involvement in Ukraine, but not out of sympathy for democracy. China is presently helping Russia a lot, for example, by buying hydrocarbons to Russia. Some experts claim that Russia would collapse in three weeks without Chinese help. An historical reminder: without Russian oil, Nazi Germany could not have fought, at all, in 1940. The Nazi tanks and planes would have stayed nailed to the ground. (Nazi Germany developped massive production from secret US Standard Oil process only later, and only later did Nazi Germany gain access to Rumanian oil fields, also in consequence of the defeat of France… Even then, Germany was not producing enough fuel, and thus, later in the war, German pilots could not be trained for little more than basic flying… This means that the alliance between the Nazis and Russia was crucial in 1939 to 1941… crucial to Nazu aggression…)

China is careful in not sending weapons to Russia that we know of, because it knows that it would lose if hostilities culminated into all out nuclear war. (In an all-out nuclear war with Russia, Western forces would direct nuclear fire not against cities, but against Russian nuclear forces. By precaution, they would also have to annihilate Chinese nuclear forces.) 

Fortunately, differently from what happened in WW1 and WW2, most democracies are reacting accordingly. Most democracies have understood that this is the war of one man against the world… So 143 countries voted against that man in the United Nations in October 2022.

Fifty (50) democracies are giving weapons or military help to Ukraine, including Sweden and Switzerland. The case of those two is interesting: Sweden and Switzerland, especially Sweden, helped the Nazis with their “neutrality” in World War 2 (Swiss help consisted in financial arrangements and crucial industrial production, for example the production of ball-bearings for Nazi war machinery… Until, by “accident”, the US Air Force bombed said factories…).

This time, confronted to this latest imperial fascist aggression, the USA is leading in the fight. This is a vast difference, with the years 1914-1917 and 1938-1940, when, very opportunisitically, cynically, and inhumanly, a treachorous USA let France and Britain fight for survival against fascism.

(The reason for the US not helping European democracies, for so many long years, when those were under fascist attack was that, as far as US plutocrats and the US Deep State were concerned, the colossal European empires stood in the way to the even more hummongous US empire to come. By weakening, damaging or even killing, France, Britain, Belgium and the Netherlands, the world promised to become  anew wilderness in which, helped by the US Cavalry, US capitalists could roam… A reproduction of how the US Wesr was won, … and exactly as it happened… This is why the US helped characters such as Mao and Ho Chi Minh, or even Khomeiny, and Muslim Fundamentalism, during that crucial juncture… Well done, Machiavellian style…)

In the present crisis, just as in World War One and World War Two, there is only one way out, the total defeat of fascism. Even more so, because, for the first time ever, a superpower used nuclear blackmail… On all concerned (the case of Japan in 1945 was different: the Japanese army had committed huge massacres, and was actually not blackmailed, but came to its leaders came to their senses, accepting surrender, within 12 hours of learning of the bombing of Nagasaki). 

Trying to mitigate and navigate around dictators is short sighted, especially when nuclear weapons are involved. Dictators, or at least the spirit which animate them, per their reigns, are intrinsically deranged and nilihilistic: they tend to prefer to die, rather than not to achieve their cruel goals.

In the invasion of Ukraine, nuclear weapons are involved, because of “nuclear blackmail”, an expression Putin himself used (accusing others to do it, but that’s the usual trick of the perpetrator accusing the victim of victimizing the aggressor..)

European unilateral disarmament of the last few decades, and will not to impose peace and order, in the name of an unreal view of human nature, has been a catalyst for the growth of fascist dictatorships, all over the world.

In particular, Xi’s China and the Kremlin have not been blocked in Africa, Europe’s own backyard, as they should have been…

All possible weapons have to be sent to Ukraine, and Europe has to scramble to arm itself (especially with anti-missile forces). Not defending democracy is the same as welcoming fascism. Not preparing for war is lethal to peace. Not preparing for nuclear war is lethal to civilization. Disarming when facing a nuclear tyranny is preparing for a worst so bad, only the grimmest science fiction, the sort with cannibalism, has imagined it.

And all this because idiots imagined that wolves could be persuaded to eat salad, through the sheer power of example… and didn’t want to be bothered when told that was unrealistic. In other words, sheer idiocy.

The world “idiot” came from the Greek. idiotes… literally “private person”  as opposed to one taking part in public affairs, politics. “Idiot” came then to be used patronizingly for “ignorant person,” from idios “one’s own”… and then passed in Latin and later French medieval usage. In other words, idiots are individuals so preoccupied by their personal, inner world, that the world escapes them. This is what happened when self-glorifying “pacifists” took over… And decided to buy all manufacturing in China and gas in Russia… while retiring at age 60 (as is the case in France).

Similar idiocy is deployed in the climate crisis. The French Prime Minister actually declared that energy consumption in France will have to get lowered by 10% next year (because of the war in Ukraine, supposedly, coincidentaly with Macron closing or neglecting nuclear reactors to the point that half of them are stopped for maintenance and two have been dismantled). In either case, strategic idiocy… a form of hubris

No US soldier was injured during the shooting of that movie. London on fire, 1940. Where was US help? A few month before, Roosevelt had sent his right hand man, 4 star Admiral Leahey as ambassador to Vichy, recognizing this way the Hitlerian friendly junta of Petain and other traitors…

***

[1] The French Mamba made of Aster 15 and 30 missiles in a Thales and MDMA collaboration, is as good and probably better than its US equivalent the Patriot system (Italian, French and UK navies use Asters for air defense). However Germany prefers to ingratiate itself with the US military-industrial complex… And that’s ironical, not to say foolhardy, especially considering how negative Germany was about Trump (and Biden is like Trump, just more polite, as a German minister in Merkel’s government pointed out… even Trump asked Germany to boost defense spending, and that must mean not just buying more US equipment, but building a European military-industrial complex…).

Nuclear Decapitation Strikes: How Putin Wins With Nukes

October 2, 2022

PUTIN HAS NOTHING TO LOSE BY GOING NUCLEAR, AND A WORLD TO SURPRISE, SO THAT’S WHAT HE DESIRES: 

Since February 2022, Putin and his helpers have said, and repeated that, if they don’t get their way, humanity should go. The idea that if a tyrant does not get his way, humanity should disappear is new: on n’arrête pas le progrès. It’s found in some religious texts where angry, jealous gods get rid of humanity. Putin is the first tyrant who expressed the will to destroy all, and has the means to do so.

Putin drew nuclear red lines, assesses the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), and they have been crossed since, and Putin did nothing spectacular. See: SPECIAL REPORT: ASSESSING PUTIN’S IMPLICIT NUCLEAR THREATS AFTER ANNEXATION, Sep 30, 2022, observes that Putin did not renew immediate nuclear threats when he annexed four provinces of Ukraine, September 30, 2022. This gives a false feeling of security, and opens humanity to a Putin surprise.

However, ISW concludes that: “The more confident Putin is that nuclear use will not achieve decisive effects but will draw direct Western conventional military intervention in the conflict, the less likely he is to conduct a nuclear attack. Indeed, indeed… As long as the “West” has somebody to talk to.

However the following is true:

  1. Without Putin using nuclear weapons, Ukraine will recover all her lost territories, including Crimea.
  2. Such an Ukrainian victory will be accompanied with huge losses for the Kremlin, in all ways. 
  3. The catastrophic losses will bring regime change in the Kremlin.
  4. Putin, although otherwise a complete idiot, may be smart enough to guess the preceding. So:

Let’s explore the unthinkable, where Putin does exactly what the “West” does not expect him to do.

***

Helping Ukraine is not just a moral necessity, it’s a survival necessity. We can’t let inhumanity win, it will come for all of us, ultimately.

The United Nation determined in September 2022 that children as young as 4 were raped, tortured and killed in Ukraine, by Putin forces, in significant numbers. It is the necessity of survival for  humanity to fight against inhumanity.

We are going down an apocalyptic decision tree. In the short run, Putin is going to try to overwhelm Ukrainians with human waves… at least so goes the conventional thinking. As Putin sent mainly minorities to fight, this has the advantage of a genocide against minorities, for example the Crimean Tartars. Ultimately, though, this traditional Kremlin method will fail, against experienced, increasingly well armed, extrmely motivated Ukraine. 

And Putin should know this.

At that point, the best outcome, for non-Putin civilization, is that the Russian  military eliminates Putin. Putin also knows this. Putin should also know this. So Putin knows he does not have forever to win. 

So let’s suppose that Putin is not eliminated (while praying to all known divinities, and other imaginable, that he will be). 

***

VLAD THE MAD’S BEST OPTION IS NUCLEAR ARMAGEDDON:

Putin then must terrify Ukraine into submission, by submitting it to nuclear bombing… and sooner rather than later. Terrifying Zelinsky and his government looks impossible, so the only solution is to eliminate them. 

Indeed, the smartest way for Putin to nuclear bomb his enemy is not by using nukes on the battlefield: Ukrainian forces are dispersed, armored, entrenched, mobile, Putin would have to use several nukes on a concentrated front, and on Ground Line Of Communications behind. The military advantage would be slim, if any; the world outrage would be great; NATO’s “devastating response” would consist into opening the spigot of full military help to Ukraine [1].Putin would argue he is using nukes on (just annexed) Russian soil to defend from a Neo-Nazi invasion, but the whole world would turn against him.

So using nukes as ISW expects him to do, striking troop concentrations and GLOCs, with several nukes, would bring more of the same to Putin, just worse. Alleging, as Putin did, that the US was the first to nuclear bomb, and so “created a precedent” is irrelevant: the US did not launch an invasion of Japan, and eben after Japan surrendered, did not invade Japan nor a fortiori annex it territory and claim that Japan had no right to exist. Instead of annexing territory, the US imposed the vote of Japanese women (immediately)…   

***

DECAPITATION STRIKES ON UKRAINE: 

The war aim of Putin, expressed for decades, is to destroy the Ukrainian state. We saw above that he can’t do it conventionally, or with a dozen nukes… That leaves us with another obvious possibility, which would achieve the element of surprise. In his Art Of War, Sun Tzu wrote: In conflict, direct confrontation will lead to engagement and surprise will lead to victory. Those who are skilled in producing surprises will win. Such tacticians are as versatile as the changes in heaven and earth.

By trying a nuclear decapitation strike on the Ukrainian state, killing the Ukrainian leadership, Putin would achieve surprise.

How far from each other are the presidency, national assembly, department of defense and regalian ministries of Ukraine? The presidency and Rada (national assembly) are 500 meters apart. And so on. Putin could use a MIRVed rocket with one warhead going to the presidency, the other to the Rada, etc… Putin could launch one of his “Satan 2” missiles (the RS-28 Sarmat), and be done with the leadership of Ukraine. The warheads could be programmed to explode after impact, causing tremendous shockwaves which would destroy all very deep underground installations in Kvyiv. Then Putin would appear on TV, completely enraged, and accuse the “West” to have done it. 

The way Putin could pretend to look at such a war crime, is a win-win: he would have killed the “Neo-Nazi” leadership, and intimidated Ukraine into submission. After the decapitation strike on Kyiv, Putin could contact individual army commands in Ukraine, and order them to surrender, or to see the cities they are in, or next, be submitted to similar nuclear bombardment. 

What would NATO do? Well, nothing, because NATO DID NOT THINK ABOUT PUTIN GOING FULL WACKO.

***

HOW TO PREVENT NUCLEAR DECAPITATION STRIKES:

First, imagine the scenario presented here, and feel its likelihood. 

Putin is a malefactor with only one concern: reconstitute the old Kremlin empire, and anything else is not tolerable. Only victory will bring him survival… another similarity with Adolf Hitler. 

It is a modern tragedy surpassing anything written in the past. One is dizzy, just contemplating the consequences. 

The Ukrainian government, and NATO, should keep this in mind, the possibility of a nuclear decapitation strike. Thus they should get ready, and MUST be blatant about it. The Russian military has to understand decapitation strikes would probably not work, ONCE COUNTERMEASURES are taken. Faced with this, the Russian military would perhaps draw the conclusion that it is the Kremlin which needs decapitation.

So the focus should be on dispersing the Ukrainian government, and military commands make them mobile… Well sheltered, and yet not too associated with large conurbations. Also the West should scramble to produce massively anti-missiles and anti-ballistic systems. There are a number of these systems in existence, but insufficient numbers, or developed by the US, France and Israel. Early versions of these systems should be sent to Ukraine, ASAP. 

If Ukraine and NATO take those precautions, and the option of decapitation strikes will turn into a probable ineffective nuclear slaughter all over Ukraine, the decapitation strikes option would be closed. 

Putin will then be reduced to multiple use of nukes on the battlefield, hoping that would scare Ukraine into submission. The problem of NATO and Ukraine will then be to make this nuclear battlefield behavior unsustainable [2].

But that would be a a lesser problem.

***

PUTIN’S CRIMINAL DEMENTIA WAS LONG OBVIOUS, STOP UNDERESTIMATING IT… Especially when evaluating the future:

The present situation with Putin is no surprise to me: I wrote many essays comparing in detail Putin with Hitler for very good and deep reasons, the fundamental oligarchic organization of the world, more than a decade ago. Most “leaders” pretended to be surprised about Putin’s behavior in 2022. However, they egged Putin on, for decades, just as Hlter had been egged on, by western oligarchic predecessors. Self-declared “leader” Obama used to be Putin’s accomplice, a mafioso talking to another, through Medvedev, then “president” of Russia, in 2012:”Tell Vladimir I will be freer to do whatever he wants me to do, after the election,” said the corrupt “leader” over a hot mike… Obama, and Merkel, and the other corrupt ones led into “satanism”, Putin himself declared on September 30, 2022, knowing all too well what he was talking about. 

The satanic mood Putin was part of is extensive. An ex-friend of mine, Philip Short wrote a glowing biography of tyrant Putin, exonerating him for the crimes related to Chechnya in 1999, when Putin was already in charge.

I am sure Philip Short, once a big man at the BBC, was paid… Hey mortgages, you know, properties all over, castles in the Provencal sky… So were thousands of others… And, implicitly, they like the privileges, the money, the power, but they also would hate to fall victims of accidents, as happened to many oligarchs who did not faithful obey the nuclear Czar… Don’t we all…

So, if civilization wants to avoid being surprised by nuclear decapitation strikes, get ready for them…

Let me repeat slowly: Putin and his criminal oligarchic clique have lost the conventional war with Ukraine and democracy. Thus, Putin is tempted by a nuclear decapitation strike against what he calls the “Neo-Nazis” in Ukraine and the “neocolonial” “satanism” of “the West”. Nuclear strikes would be effective, because the West would have no answer. Ukraine and the West have to expect, take countermeasures, and thus, prevent this.

Patrice Ayme

***

[1] Notice that, in this scenario, NATO would have had to switch to massive war production of sophisticated anti-missile systems… but that is neither easy, nor fast to do. France is ramping up the production of Rafale fighter-bomber, but many subcontrators find it very hard to do so. Production of the US HIMARS rockets is 9,000 a year. Ukraine is rumored to use 6,000 a month. Even expanding production lines for old-fashioned, unguided 155 mm howitzer shells can take more than a year. Guided and submunitions shells, as France and the US produce, take much longer to ramp up.

***

[2] That would mean to enable the Ukrainian to hit Russian cities with conventional means.

Hypersonic Russian missile strike on Lviv, Western Ukraine, fired from Russia, 20 March 2022. Such missiles can carry thermonuclear warheads. Having a high probability to intercept them, as soon as they are fired from over Russia, would be a formidable deterrent, because Russian-made nuclear material would fall over the Russian empire.

Drole De Guerre: Having A World War, But Ignoring It, As In 1939-40?

August 5, 2022

After France and Britain declared war to Hitler, on September 3, 1939, they entered a strange phase. France attacked with 40 divisions, took seven German villages… And stopped (had the French army persisted in September 1939, some of its own shortcomings would have been revealed to itself…) 

Britain, of course, had no army: the first British soldier got to France a month later. This phase came to be known as the “Drole De Guerre” (strange sort of funny war) . The world war had started, but the British and French did their best not to notice. The Americans were even worse: the US Congress and US president sanctioned France and Britain as belligerent nations, no doubt instilling in France and Britain the feeling that resisting Hitler was not the right thing to do. 

The end result was that, while Hitler was making frantic plans to attack France with the help of Mussolini and Stalin, both France and Britain let their war production slacken.. With disastrous results: only half of the French air force was ready for action in France when the Nazis finally attacked with their entire army. Not having fought a modern battle at high intensity with the Nazis previously left French and British clueless about some easy to fix remedies, such having radios in tanks… Or knowing the Nazis used amphetamines (so they didn’t need to sleep)… Or just taking the Nazi army seriously, keeping a reserve [1]. 

In 1936, after the Nazis and Italian fascists attacked the Spanish Republic, France decided to intervene, but was overruled by the UK and US. Thus the Nazis got free training, and the democracies didn’t. 

The present situation is not a repetition of what happened in the 1930s. This time the democracies, more than 50 of them, are helping  Ukraine. However, the populations of these democracies are not taking this world war seriously enough, same as in 1939-1940. Putin made very clear he plans to use nukes. It could happen if, say, the Ukrainians free Kherson… Are democracies ready to fight nuclear war? No. But they should be. A number of things can be done, such as mass production of ABM missiles… 

***

Us

@Patrice Ayme

I was with you until the last sentences.  

Putin has indeed threatened to use nuclear weapons.  He is wielding fear of nuclear attack as a weapon.  Besides his invasion of Ukraine, which is an attack on European and world stability, he has threatened to use nuclear weapons.  Yet some people are eager to give in to Putin’s demands, believing that they will get peace in our time, believing that they can somehow manage a dictator who has actually threatened nuclear destruction. 

The world’s nuclear capabilities are very different from previous decades, and more modern anti ballistic missiles may intercept some. Submarines are mobile missile systems worldwide.  Countering hypersonic technology calls for new defense systems. The world democracies need to match new technology, but any nuclear strategy is unthinkable.  It’s not winnable. It’s not survivable.  Putin is evil and dangerous, but he does back down to power.  That’s why Sweden and Finland are choosing to join NATO.

***

@Us Those “last sentences” were an allusion to the “Standard Missiles” (SM3, SM6) which have proven capable of intercepting ICBMs (among other missiles). The SMs are carried on destroyers, cruisers, and there is a ground version being installed on two bases in Europe. Being carried by ships, they provide a mobile defense, including much of Europe, and major US coastal cities.

“Nuclear strategy” may be “unthinkable”… But Putin has it, was loud about it, and clearly incorporated it in his thinking about Ukraine. In particular Putin believes we can’t think about nuclear strategy… so he does the thinking for us… in his own special way. By refusing to incorporate nuclear thinking, we only encourage Putin. Democracies should not talk, but should ramp up production of the most sophisticated missile defenses. 

It’s not a question of nuclear war being “winnable” or not. Putin believes that if he uses nukes, the democracies will submit. This is erroneous. However, by pretending we can’t win a nuclear war, we only encourage Putin to go nuclear. Nuclear war, called “escalate to de-escalate” by the Putin folks, is fully incorporated in the present Russian strategic thinking. We have to do the same, and that will show Russian generals that Putin’s nuclear intimidation strategy can’t work.Meanwhile, we have to militarize the democracies’ economies, ASAP. None of this is fun and progressive, but the alternative is the Gulag run by Putin. 

*** 

Ted Jenkins

Ottawa Canada

@Patrice Ayme It’s true that our response should be more energetic (while avoiding nuclear war). It would have been better for NATO to declare a danger of war and fully-mobilize conventional forces (include plans to introduce conscription and rationing, host an alternative Russian government, fly into Ukrainian air-space, etc). Arrange contacts with the Russian military for a coup. But nuclear war would be a catastrophe.

@Ted Jenkins Putin’s war doctrine is that, because nuclear war is unthinkable, engaging in it will cause democratic thinking to believe it has lost the war. This was Putin’s computation all along. 

Right now, Putin is happy to destroy Ukraine, one explosion at a time: it serves his goal of ethnic cleansing, and enables him to crank up his dictatorship on Russia. But, should he strategically lose control of Crimea, say, Putin will try to use nukes on the battlefield, on Ukrainian troop concentrations. We have to get ready for this. And, by the way, the catastrophe is already upon us: the world’s greatest nuclear weapon power’s government has put itself in a position where it must win, or go nuclear… to win in an unthinkable way…. 

***

A question which should haunt NATO and its allies: why did the French Republic lose the Battle of France of May-June 1940? The French had nearly superior everything… plus the British empire as allies (one New Zealand ace, Edgar “Cobber” Kain, shot 16 Nazi planes down in three weeks). 

The answer is greatly that the Nazis had been at war for nearly three and a half years already, so the Nazi tactics, command and war administration were efficient… Whereas the French and British started to learn how to fight a war… while losing it. 

An example: France and the UK had roughly as large an air force as the Nazis, but they didn’t know how to use it. Ammunition rounds for fighter planes, although produced by the millions a month, barely reached the battlefield. Some aircraft units ran out of ammunition completely. French armies didn’t know how to use French aviation. French fighter planes were only used for ground attack starting June 5, 1940… More than three years after the Nazis had learned to do that in Spain. And so on. When a French reconnaissance aircraft, an Amiot 143 night bomber, saw the traffic jam extending more than 100 kilometers on three small roads, of most of the Nazi army trying to squeeze through the Ardennes mountains, on May 12-13, there were no French bombers to attack them… and the whole thing was so crazy, unthinkable and ludicrous, the French High Command preferred not to think about it.  

Defeat in war is all about the unthinkable happening by surprise.

Wrecked MS.406s and an RAF Bristol Blenheim Mk. I litter a captured French airfield as German soldiers inspect the damage and a Messerschmitt Me-109E comes in for a landing. (©Mary Evans/Sueddeutsche Zeitung)

[1] France and Britain had conducted two landings in northern Norway in 1940, successfully, defeating Nazis, sinking their ships. The French Foreign Legion crushed elite Nazi troops after the second landing, and was poised to cut Sweden in two, as planned (Sweden, in complete contrast with the Norwegian democracy, was an important ally of Hitler, providing him with high grade iron)… But the French army didn’t learn much, as the Norwegian campaign did not involve huge tank formations. France and Britain learned how to make good sea-air-ground disembarkment battles, though, and that turned out to be very useful later… Many times.

Ukraine Genocide As Official Kremlin Policy

July 9, 2022

It’s Putin’s full intent to turn his annihilation of Ukraine into an indefinite insurance for his dictatorship by fostering a terrible war which in turn justifies his tyranny. The intent is genocidal:”Fight to the last Ukrainian!” the Kremlin tyrant declared in July 2022… Yesterday. So the continuation of the war enables Putin to commit a genocide, Putin himself said, turning genocide into policy!

Putin warned 7/7/2022 that his invasion of Ukraine could continue until the “last Ukrainian is left standing,Reuters reported. During a speech to parliamentary leaders, Putin claimed Russia was just getting started with the war in Ukraine, more than four months after he invaded his neighbor.

Today we hear that they want to defeat us on the battlefield. Well, what can I say? Let them try,”

In a sense this is a situation which was never encountered before: genocide is officially part of the calculation, and the rescuers of the assaulted country are accused of it, by Putin! Putin’s argument is that the 50 allies of Ukraine are committing a genocide by extending the war.  

OK, on second thought, the Mongols had such a policy: they would show up at a city, order surrender, and declared that resistance will cause annihilation. This is what they did to Kyiv, the capital of Rus, then, massacring everybody after a short siege, except for the leading defender himself. Kyiv, then one of Europe’s largest cities, was annihilated… Muscovite Rus would rise by doing the exact opposite: allying itself as executioner and taxman for the Mongols, led in this by the famous Alexander Nevski (and this is why the statues of the later are being removed in Ukraine…) and then his grandson Ivan I Money Bag… 

***

The way Putin looks at it, this strategy of genocide ensures victory. And, actually, Putin is winning, in the sense that the territory that he controls is a large part of the wealthiest Ukraine. As a bonus, he is destroying plenty of Ukrainian wealth and lives….

The West can’t stay in the war if the West does not militarize its economy… Russia did this a few days ago, by passing the appropriate laws… From now on, industry, private or public can’t refuse military orders, whatever they are, such as working 24/7. This is a world war, and it’s time for democracies to act as if it were… Not doing so will only make the situation worse…. All the way to “escalate to de-escalate”, that is the Putin doctrine of using nuclear weapons.

As long as the West does not fight this world war with complete determination, Putin feels that he is likely to win it, and thus keeps on going waging war, causing irreversible damage, including psychological damage. When, after many months of this Putin will realize that he is not yet winning, as he should in his opinion, he will naturally feel that this delayed victory is the result of his own insufficient exhibition of determination… So he will use nukes at that point to make sure the West feel in its bones that it will never match Putin’s determination. MAAD: Madly Atomically Assumed Determination.

This is no small war, it’s the war of the Russian autocratic tradition, of the “empire which never ends” (quoting Putin again, in a statement he made in 2016…)… a traditonal Kremlin expansion war, in its nuclear version, as Putin’s computation, from the start, was to use nuclear weapons one way or another! That sets his place in history, next to Alexander Nevski, who subdiued the independent republic of Novogorod, in the name of his Mongol overlord… And yes, Alexander Nevski is a saint of the Russian Orthodox church…. And Putin, starting in the 1990s, rebuild the Kremlin military in the spirit of a crusade, with the full help of patriach Kyrill… The one with watches so expensive (several dozens of thousands of dollars), that they had to be erased from official pictures… By the Kremlin…

Patrice Ayme

A Putin explosion in Ukraine… In 2017…. Some of these explosions are nuclear weapon strength…

P/S: The essence of the essay above was sent as a comment to the New York Times for

Ukraine and the Contest of Global Stamina
The conflict’s long-run trajectory seems increasingly likely to be shaped by whether the United States and its allies can maintain their military, political and financial commitments to holding off Russia.

… My comment was censored… Banned, rejected, condemned, ostracized, vilified and excommunicated… Mind control as the NYT is exquisite… Probably where Putin learned it…

Just War: Mobilize “Democratic” Military-Industrial Complexes. 

July 3, 2022

“Just wars” occur when submission strategies, such as appeasement, peace at all cost, nihilism, are less optimal for the many, or even worse, for the species’ survival. Some will sneer: they have a higher calling, they prefer to be eaten by wolves. Yet should other people’s children be eaten too? Others will point out that democracy is relative… Yet so is tyranny. Grotesque threats of nuclear war, and, or, destroying everybody, by Putin’s government officials are the ultimate terrorism, and, per se, constitute a crime against peace.

The invasion of Ukraine, an attack of a nuclear weapons brandishing tyrant on a democracy is a world war, with 50 democracies already allied with Ukraine. (By contrast in 1939, only a few dependencies of France and Britain joined Poland in fighting Hitler; the USA applied sanctions against France and Britain for having declared war to Hitler.) 

That world war, long prepared by Putin, has to be won by democracies… otherwise “the borders of Russia never end”… as Putin himself said in 2016. If we don’t invest enough now, in winning this war, that we are presently losing, the price will be much higher, maybe nuclear, later. Putin’s win would ensure world tyrannies as the new governance, with the result of lowering civilizational intelligence below survivability.

Thus, democracies, and their industrial-military complexes should get on a war footing. Putin’s forces have been destroying a lot of Ukrainian artillery, including recently arrived 155mm US howitzers. Artillery is what the Ukrainians need, preferably of the highly mobile variety, as the French CAESAR truck mounted gun… France sent 18 of these guns to Ukraine, and the French army has only 80 left. Although France has more standard howitzers, Russia has approximately 1,100 of them, more than a thousand.

The US, after a few weeks of comabt, had sent to Ukraine 7,000 Javellin anti-tank rockets, one third of its total inventory. As it is, the US makes only 2,100 Jevellins a year. 

This is the situation all over the West, NATO has an insufficient number of (quality) weapons. Ukraine also needs field communications. Putin’s forces successfully jam a lot of them, including the latest encrypted US gear (but not the SpaceX internet satellite).

Ukrainian volunteer soldiers, insufficiently trained and equipped suffer pain, and death. To help them, they need training and equipment. We have to assume, and prepare for, the worst in the evolution of this world war. So doing, and only so doing, this world war will be mitigated… Proper war management here means more effort, and it is not just an economic, but also a moral challenge. There is something such as just war. This is it. Sometimes, those terrible times come back, when making war, not love, is the higher moral calling.

Sad but true.

Patrice Ayme

***

 

The French Caesar gun is very precise, its shells carry more explosives and it goes 50% further than its Russian equivalent. Ukraine was able to hit Snake island with it, forcing the evacuation of its Russian occupiers. These guns have been used in combat in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Mali… It can drive somewhere, stop, fire more than a dozen precise 40 kilometers shots, and then scoot away, all in less than 4 minutes, escaping counter-battery fire. The US HIMARS (HIgh Mobility Artillery Rocket System), now in Ukraine, does even better with great GPS precision. The version given to Ukraine goes only 50 miles, but the original US product could hit Moscow… from Ukraine… (Ukraine to Moscow is only 450 kilometers)

PUTIN, PLUTOCRACY & The WEST (Standard)

May 24, 2022

Putin played the West. But first the West played Putin. Or more exactly the powers that be in the West played Putin [1].  This deliberate instrumentalization of Putin by the West became obvious early on. 

A number of events, perpetrators and witnesses revealed that Putin an the secret service he used to lead, the Komitet Gosudarstvennoy Bezopasnosti, lit. Committee for State Security, FSB/KGB the Russian/Soviet secret security political police, had orchestrated the bombing of appartment building blocks in Russia.

Why?

The KGB/FSB had constrained (elected) Russian president Yeltsin to choose and nominate Putin as Prime Minister, first. Then Yeltsin made Putin President. The KGB/FSB had made Yeltsin an offer he couldn’t refuse, obviously. 

However elections had to be conducted soon and Putin was pulling only 2%. One factor that had humiliated and weakened Yeltsin was the first war with Chechnya, which Russia had lost, giving that Muslim country de facto independence. Putin accused Chechnya to have done these multiple apartment building attacks, which killed hundreds of Russians, and viewing this as a casus belli, Putin attacked Chechnya with maximal force…. Conveniently discarding all rules about civilized warfare… in the grand old tradition of Russian wars, especially those conducted in the Caucasus mountains. 

One Chechnen out of six was killed, the capital, Grozny was leveled, and Putin won totally over his imaginary enemy. Putin became wildly popular and got elected Russian president in a landslide. Considering how he got elected, though, we should not view him as a legitimate president.

Western intelligence knew all of this, and it was obvious Putin had orchestrated it, as Chechnya had no interest whatsoever to disrupt the status quo… whereas Putin had. 


The West kept on shaking Putin’s hand, because the West knew the evil Putin did in Chechnya, and how he got in power, leveraging that. Knowing that he knew they knew, Western leaders thought Putin was their man, who would do their thing, namely a cheap energy policy. But minds, and, in particular evil, have an inertia of their own. So Putin kept on doing evil, what he did best, and the West kept hoping he was their man, providing cheap fossil fuel energy.


Then Putin became the darling of the West. A genocidal mass murderer became central to world energy policy. At first sight, this is counterintuitive and paradoxal: how could a tyrannical murderous evil monster become the friend of representative democracies?

Well, what if these representative democracies are mostly only democratic in name, and mostly represent global plutocrats?

There is nothing new in this strategy: in the 1930s, the Western plutocrats did the same with Mussolini, Franco, Hitler, and, less well-known, Stalin. Hirohito got oil to invade China from US plutocrats. Plutocracy means evil-power. It was evil to enable these evil-doesr, but most profitable to Western plutocrats.

Plutocrats love evil tyrants: their kind, writ large.

The Putin problem is a plutocratic problem. It’s global plutocracy which played us, and Putin was one of its pawns, as Hitler and Stalin were. 

Patrice Ayme

***

[1] (The French secret services were ordered in the 1990s, by elected leaders, not to have anything to do with Russia anymore; source the 25 years in the secret services” of “Pierre Siramy”, a top DGSE operative, who thought in 2010 that the policy of ignoring Russia was the gravest mistake; it is likely the same order was given to their US and UK colleagues.)

***

P/S 1: The essence of this comment, that many of the world’s tyrants, in the last century, were instruments of global plutocracy, was censored by the plutocratic New York Times. Hundreds of innocuous comments were allowed, though.

I then sent another comment, not directly accusing global plutocracy, the one in italics underlined above. It was immediately published.

One has to understand that the descendants of those who crucially helped Stalin and  Hitler to get or stay in power, are themselves in power… And act through countless schemes, foundations, universities, think tanks, corporate boards, etc… All this held by anonymous corporations… 

***

P/S 2: Many naive and ill-informed left leaning individuals, following sheepishly the propaganda they are submitted to by their minders in the Kremlin, believe that Putin is an opponent of the “West”… because that’s what he says. Hitler also pretended to be a defender of minorities, and just like Putin, was an instrument of global plutocracy. Hitler knew this, and told confidantes he was exasperated with making nice talk with plutocrats… For example before a dinner in Italy he told Rommel he resented having to sit next to some extremely wealthy Italian aristocrat…

Naive leftists have then made a weapon of global plutocracy, Putin, into their hero. 

Just as Hitler, or Mao, or Hirohito, Putin, forgetting that he is where he is because of Western plutocracy, has gone rogue.

Amusingly the French secret services (DGSE) knew very well that, in the 1990s, Western ecologists were paid by Putin and his ilk, the Russian intelligence services. So follow this: Putin and his ilk are put in power by Western fossil fuel plutocrats, and then, on their (apparent) own, feed ecologists, who, not by coincidence, demolish nuclear industry and nuclear research (for better nuclear industry)… With the final effect of ostering fossil fuels domination by Western plutocracy and its proxies (say ARAMCO)….

Putin did this in Chechnya, here is Grozny, 23 years ago. Then he did it in Aleppo an ancient metropolis in Syria, then in many places over Ukraine. The point is that Western leaders knew very well about Chechnya… and it excited them… Western elected politicians are selected, then elected, becuase they are most qualified to represent eil power. In Putin, they seriously saw their man, and kept shaking his hand. And this is not just a case of the big bad evil US governing classes… German and French leadership obviously look at the Warsaw-Kyiv axis with a jaundiced eye. Those who know history well know that, for centuries, Poland, Ukraine and Lithuania were the same imperial power. Hence the diatribe of the French leader against the Polishone, and unfounded accusation of corruption against Ukraine on French “service public” TV… While the blatant corruption in France (how come the hyper wealthy pays no tax, and thus kept getting wealtheir and more influenctial?) is carefully not adressed…

NotPoliticallyCorrect

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NotPoliticallyCorrect

Human Biodiversity, IQ, Evolutionary Psychology, Epigenetics and Evolution

Political Reactionary

Dark Enlightenment and Neoreaction

Of Particular Significance

Conversations About Science with Theoretical Physicist Matt Strassler

Rise, Republic, Plutocracy, Degeneracy, Fall And Transmutation Of Rome

Power Exponentiation By A Few Destroyed Greco-Roman Civilization. Are We Next?

SoundEagle 🦅ೋღஜஇ

Where The Eagles Fly . . . . Art Science Poetry Music & Ideas

Artificial Turf At French Bilingual School Berkeley

Artificial Turf At French Bilingual School Berkeley

Patterns of Meaning

Exploring the patterns of meaning that shape our world

Sean Carroll

in truth, only atoms and the void

West Hunter

Omnes vulnerant, ultima necat

GrrrGraphics on WordPress

www.grrrgraphics.com

Skulls in the Stars

The intersection of physics, optics, history and pulp fiction

Footnotes to Plato

because all (Western) philosophy consists of a series of footnotes to Plato

Patrice Ayme's Thoughts

Striving For Ever Better Thinking. Humanism Is Intelligence Unleashed. From Intelligence All Ways, Instincts & Values Flow, Even Happiness. History and Science Teach Us Not Just Humility, But Power, Smarts, And The Ways We Should Embrace. Naturam Primum Cognoscere Rerum

Learning from Dogs

Dogs are animals of integrity. We have much to learn from them.

ianmillerblog

Smile! You’re at the best WordPress.com site ever

NotPoliticallyCorrect

Human Biodiversity, IQ, Evolutionary Psychology, Epigenetics and Evolution

Political Reactionary

Dark Enlightenment and Neoreaction

Of Particular Significance

Conversations About Science with Theoretical Physicist Matt Strassler

Rise, Republic, Plutocracy, Degeneracy, Fall And Transmutation Of Rome

Power Exponentiation By A Few Destroyed Greco-Roman Civilization. Are We Next?

SoundEagle 🦅ೋღஜஇ

Where The Eagles Fly . . . . Art Science Poetry Music & Ideas

Artificial Turf At French Bilingual School Berkeley

Artificial Turf At French Bilingual School Berkeley

Patterns of Meaning

Exploring the patterns of meaning that shape our world

Sean Carroll

in truth, only atoms and the void

West Hunter

Omnes vulnerant, ultima necat

GrrrGraphics on WordPress

www.grrrgraphics.com

Skulls in the Stars

The intersection of physics, optics, history and pulp fiction

Footnotes to Plato

because all (Western) philosophy consists of a series of footnotes to Plato

Patrice Ayme's Thoughts

Striving For Ever Better Thinking. Humanism Is Intelligence Unleashed. From Intelligence All Ways, Instincts & Values Flow, Even Happiness. History and Science Teach Us Not Just Humility, But Power, Smarts, And The Ways We Should Embrace. Naturam Primum Cognoscere Rerum

Learning from Dogs

Dogs are animals of integrity. We have much to learn from them.

ianmillerblog

Smile! You’re at the best WordPress.com site ever

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