In the Fourth Century, Rome became farce and tragedy:
Early in the 4th century, emperor Constantine, inventor of “Orthodox Catholicism” killed all the priests of Egypt… because the existence of the guardians of a religion which was more than 2,000 years old “hurt his feelings“. Christianism was an excellent excuse for the tyranny which ruled Rome to become murderously insane.
The military collapse of Rome can be dated exactly to the invasion of Italy in Spring 395 CE. That was no surprise: in an act of divinely inspired criminal idiocy the Occidental Roman army led by the Frank Arbogastes, had been destroyed in September 394 CE, by fanatical Catholic Theodosius I and his Goths led by their king Alaric. So of course there was no one left to protect the West. On January 17, 395 CE, Theodosius, age 48, dies, and his ally Alaric declares he has no more treaty with the Romans and declares war on Rome and Constantinople, invading Thrace and Greece, including the Peloponnese. Stilicho is a half Vandal who had been nominated protector of the children of Theodosius, and head of the Roman military in Occident. Stilicho counterattacks from Milan, bottles down Alaric…. so Pretorian Prefect Rufinus in Constantinople makes Alaric (!) generallissimo of what he just ravaged and orders Stilicho out. To keep on with the absurdity, Rufinus is assassinated by other Goths, Stilicho executed from jealousy, and Alaric seizes the city of Rome in 410 CE. With the details the situation becomes even more delirious. Emperor Arcadius in 395, formally succeeds is father, but marries Aelia Eudoxa who becomes one of the more powerful empresses, Augusta and dominates her husband. She is the daughter of Flavius Bauto, a Romanised Frank who served as magister militum in the Western Roman army during the 380s… Who had become Consul, but died, and was succeeded in his military office by Arbogastes… who was claimed by John of Antioch to be Bauto’s son… The late Roman empire was an incomparable mess which makes Game of Thrones look simplistic and much more realistic.
Meanwhile, in 406 CE, the Franks, put in charge of the northern frontier by their enemies the ruling bishops and founding fathers of Catholicism… after successfully raiding the Germans in Germania, got surprised by the suddenly frozen Rhine, and were unable to hold the barbarians who galloped across the Rhine, and flooded Gallia, Iberia and soon after… Africa. The invasion had become a tsunami of Germans and even Iranians (Alans).
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Rome lost control of its destiny by 100 CE:
Indeed, the technical problems of Rome started at least three centuries earlier, when Rome’s metal usage collapsed. That drastic collapse has been known for a while, from lead pollution in Greenland ice. Romans used lead everywhere (in pipes limestone deposits would prevent contamination of the water supply). Now we have similar data, with a much stronger signal, from Mont Blanc ice. Moreover the signal has been extended to Antimony, a semi-metal which makes many metals, including lead and steel, much harder, and was also used by the Romans in glass manufacture (there were claims about unbreakable glass, etc.). The fact that Antimony production went up and down with the lead production shows that indeed Roman manufacture went up and down (other metals show a similar peaking behavior).
Romans used metals for tools, weapons, and construction (ships, roofs and inner structural elements). Metals are no anecdote. By the height of the Roman Empire, metals in use included: silver, zinc, iron, mercury, arsenic, antimony, lead, gold, copper, tin. Subtle alloys were ubiquitous and had very different properties from the pure metals (which the Romans knew how to refine). After a disastrous defeat at Carrhae (53 BCE), the Romans progressively adopted an armored cavalry similar to what the Parthians had… But that meant at lot of metal. At Carrhae, Parthian arrows pierced both Roman shields and the arms holding them. The fabrication of massive quantities of steel required to heat an iron mixture for hours at the temperature of lava… One needed an intense approach to metal works which was starting in Gallic areas (like Noricum/Austria)… But which did not interest the Romans… At least Romans from the Mediterranean…
One of the reason of the ascent of the Franks while the Roman state was sputtering, was the introduction by the Franks of very heavy steel or cast iron ploughs which could work at the depth required the heavy rich soils of the northern European plain, and feed a population explosion… in northern Europe. Thus the Roman tech collapse was both absolute and relative (the north collapsed much less).
Any successful civilization ravages its environment: that’s what success means. To persist, the civilization must develop new technology to change from the old, unsustained and unsustainable environment to a better one in which the new tech will allow it to thrive.
Emperor Vespasian, who succeeded Nero, is on the record saying that new machines should not be deployed, lest they augment unemployment. Europe and others, in 2024, have been saying the same about AI. Vespasian was followed by his two sons. That Flavian dynasty lasted nearly thirty years, plenty of time to install an anti-tech mood.
To become an industrial, machine based civilization, Rome needed metal, lots of metal… Instead, Rome stayed mostly a slavery based state. However in Gaul, Gallia, the slave employing giant Latifundia were nearly unknown… And this is precisely where the tech driven society arose.
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To make machines Rome needed metals:
The Gauls started to use metals crucially in agriculture with heavy ploughs and mechanical harvesters pushed by domesticated donkeys or oxes. The resulting demographic explosion explains why Gallia/Francia became the successor state of Rome in the West in the Sixth Century…. And one can see it in the lead and antimony production graph. Plutocratically owned immense latifundias with armies of slaves in Italy could not use such technology.
Moreover, Rome ran out of metal, precluding a switch to a more industrial state … to give some perspective, Europe and China got into massive pig iron production by the 12th century (and may have communicated about this through the Silk Roads). Rome metal usage peaked under Trajan and then quickly collapsed. One reason was the invasion of Rio Tinto under Marcus Aurelius. But the collapse started earlier and may have been caused by a lack of interest in metal usage. That theory is indicated by the loss of control of Rio Tinto. Had Rio Tinto been perceived as crucial, control would have been kept… the fact it was not is an indication of a deeper rot…
By the 7th Century, the dearth of metal was so great that it prevented the fabrication of weapons such as Grecian Fire flame throwers: the roofs of Rome had to be stripped of metal. The emperor came especially from Constantinople to insure that metal procurement from Rome. Then the Muslims surprised and sank the metal carrying fleet….
If the tech does not follow, civilization will collapse so the wisdom has to adapt to a collapsed, nihilistic state of mind: consider Plotin (died 300 CE)… Plotin’s philosophy is all about surrender to anything material, the wish to evanescence…
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EMPIRE Started to COLLAPSE AROUND 100 CE! The graph is from Mont Blanc ice. The results are the same as from the many similar measurements in Greenland. TRA is for Trajan, peak of lead extraction under the Roman fascist empire. The collapse of metal production started at the time of the beginning of the Roman Civil War, when the Gracchi were opposed ferociously by the plutocrats.
Simplicius: Isn’t it true that according to Patrice’s own theory, Rome collapsed first in its democracy, under the madness of the Optimates fighting the Gracchi’s judicious reforms, and then politically, thus intellectually, bringing up then a succession of tyrants, starting with Augustus? What does tech have to do with it?
PA: Right. But remember that Rome beat Carthage by imitating and then overtaking its Punic rival once superior naval tech. Similarly in Gaul with the invention of the “corvus”, which enabled to disable Gallic ocean going ships. However, the situation became hard to reverse when the mental fascism got so great that technological innovation was not sufficient to keep the barbarians out of the gates… As had already happened under Marcus Aurelius.
So it’s a cascade in authoritative regimes: the mental fascism gets so great that innovation collapses, even in defense.
Simplicius: What about Putin’s Russia?
PA: In 2023, Putin’s Russia grew more economically (GDP) than any G7 nation (with more than 7% of defense GDP according to The Economist Intelligence Unit). So Putin successfully switched to a militarization of society developing new weapons that were highly successful, such as old steel heavy bombs with navigational and gliding kits. It may well be that Putin is aware of the problem described here.
Simplicius: I am confused by you. Doesn’t that contradict your theory that political fascism brings mental fascism which leads to a lack of innovation?
PA: In general, but not always. If the dictator is really smart, like Caesar or Peter the Great, Or Ivan the Terrible, or the various Kremlin tyrants who fought the Mongols by serving them, a dictator can be civilizationally progressive. Emperor Meiji is an example. Or Queen Bathilde and her outlawing of slavery. Peter the Great for example went to work in Dutch naval shipyards to find out how one made ocean going ships, because he wanted to make Russia into a sea power.
Rome could have survived by maintaining a tech superiority, it din’t. The fascist emperors feared tech change because it brings mental change, hence philosphical change, thus political change, as politics is practical philosophy…
Simplicius: The Franks you are obsessed with do not seem to have such a superiority.
PA: They did. They developed new tech. They kept weapon superiority. The francisque, the two blade throwing ax was a symbol of that. The heavy ploughs were much more important. The Franks were fundamentally peasants (by 600 CE everybody was a Frank). The Franks’ metal usage by 800 CE was equal to Rome’s peak under the Roman Republic. Sure enough, shortly after the metal production in Francia started to exponentiate, Queen Bathilde outlawed slavery, a major break from antiquity.
Simplicius: So you are saying that philosophical, political, economic and technological progress are all related?
PA: Yes, they form a chain: break a link and the chain breaks. One of the failure of Athenian democracy was the horrendous way it could treat adversaries, neutrals (Mellos), allies and even its own heroes (all great Athenian heroes had their names written on ostracizing shards of clay, and most were indeed ostracized or even executed, even the greatest statemen, even the victorious generals and admirals, such as Pericles’ son… for very dubious reasons…)
This Athenian philosophico-ethical failure facilitated military defeat.… And then the collapse of everything. By contrast, Rome was much more careful that way. Caesar was accused of atrocities in Gaul, of all places, and that forced him to cross the Rubicon with a legion… But that unfortunate episode is indicative that ethical treatment of adversaries was a notion in Rome (although it had been violated against Numantia, Carthage, etc.). By the way, Rome used ostracism lightly. Caesar was assassinated by a bunch of ungrateful idiotic plutocratic traitors… Caesar was not ostracized: the people of Rome was all for him. In contrast Athenian democracy ostricized most of its greatest architects… Even Solon left for a decade before he became undesirable (that was two generations before the formal invention of ostracism)…
It’s not just the Romans and Athenians. The Maya, and much of what happened to the Middle Earth, long the forefront of civilization until ecological devastation set in are equally enlightening: tech could have rescued the civilizations but was short of that… The Maya tried to rebound, after a seven centuries hiatus, and then recollapsed, just before the Spaniards showed up… Another drought and no tech to handle it…
Differently from others which, plainly, could not have developed the tech Rome could have made it, transforming itself into an industrial power, if there had been a VERY forceful technological policy in place.
Many of the technologies which were developed massively under the Franks were already available on a small scale, especially in Gaul. However the scale stayed small under Roma enslaving plutocracy. The massive usage of heavy ploughs shifted food production, hence military power, to the north. Neither Rome nor Constantinople were ready to facilitate that with unbounded enthusiasm. And then the outlawing of slavery forced the usage of animals and machines… A fascinating subject to study further is the relationship between the Franks and Constantinople… which lasted more than seven centuries… In the Tenth Century, a military alliance between Constantinople and the Franks extirpated the Muslim piracy state in southern France which was raiding all over Europe….
Simplicius: Lessons for today?
PA: The civilization we have with the present tech, especially of primary energy production, is completely unsustainable. Solar panels can help considerable… But ultimately nuclear technologies have to be developed to the point they can be fully safe and clean. Physics show that it can be done; the rest is technological detail. We need to get really smart. But when a plutocracy start to dominate, its greatest tool is general stupidification. No smarts, no future. An example of this is Europe, which is pushing for extremely stupid policies of “degrowth” and “deindustrialization”… The Roman case study shows that the exact opposite should be done.
Simplicius: And if not? If we are not smart?
PA: Seven billion violently killed. To start with. And, absent easy access to minerals, civilization may well never reappear… Fermi paradox solved…
Simplicius: So what’s the grand conclusion?
PA: That mentalities matter. Mentalities drive civilizations and thus history. With right mentality, the Romans would have pulled hard towards better, and that’s often simply, especially in those times, more powerful tech. Caesar understood this: he even wanted not just to drain the proverbial swamps and the attending malaria, and this he did… Caesar also wanted to divert the Tiber itself…. The port of Rome had to be displaced, so Romans could move mountains… But the Romans had to understand, we all have to understand that the most important mountains are mountains of thoughts….
Patrice Ayme