When things decay, they decay slowly first, and then, all of a sudden, very fast. That’s exponentiation at work. Exponentiation doesn’t happen just in natural sciences. It happens on the battlefield, and even in the matter of understanding.
The Occidental Roman army was destroyed by the Goths and emperor Theodosius in September 394. Barbarian invasions started in 395 CE. Exponential decay set in as the tax base collapsed and the empire couldn’t pay an army anymore. By 406 CE, the Franks couldn’t hold back the flood of invading Barbarians…
Plutocratization and exponentiation, the second even more important than the former, are at work in our world.
Exponential is any phenomenon which grows as fast as its own size: if it doubles in size, its rate of growth also doubles. Bacterial infections are an example.
Exponentiation is what is happening with many calamities impacting civilization, humanity and even the biosphere. A good example is the Anthropogenic Climate Catastrophe. The ACC was bound to change from the linear regime of deterioration it was in and switch to an exponential regime. Indeed many climate effects, past a tipping point, are self feeding, say albedo diminution or permafrost melting. This probably happened in 2023, probably the warmest year in 125,000 years. (But this is just a warm-up…)
Exponentiation is why mountainous and polar regions are warming at a rate that is several times the world’s average. The ACC induced Putin to grab all of Ukraine, as Crimea was desiccating. The ACC has launched a world eco war.
Plutocratization is a similarly exponential regime. Plutocrats hold the world media, world politics, and even, it was revealed, some of the top universities, where they sit on boards and select administrators.
Notice several points: although this is a world index, plutocratization of DEMOCRACIES augmented during Obama’s and Biden’s reign (less so under Trump!) Notice also that the crackdown caused by Xi in China is blatant. Also notice that Musk’s industries, which are completely state dependent (Tesla and SpaceX would have been nothing without giganticoenormous intervention by the world’s mightiest state…) are not considered by The Economist (whose index it is) as “Crony”… Although they are…
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Plutocracy, as its name indicates, is not just about wealth, but the rule of evil: Evil-Kratia, Evil-Power. Even the Evangels saw that one clearly: Christ points out, immense wealth is evil. As the crimes of the world leadership are getting clearer, the leadership, that is the plutocracy, is increasing its grip, with ever more extensive coverups. That’s another exponentiation: the more criminal they are, the more criminal they get.
Evil grows at a rate proportional to its own size, in part because the bigger the evil, the bigger the lies which evil must hide behind, to stay effective.
Yes, Hamas chose evil, and calculated that its own evil would grow even more from the evil counterstrike Israel was bound to unleash.
In particular, evil war calls for ever more evil war. So here we are. All we can hope for is that the better side wins.
The last war ended with nuclear explosions. What now? AI explosions?… And it’s important that the better side wins: that’s how progress is made.
The better side has always won, because it is closer to the core of the human condition. Honesty is not just a virtue, or a necessity. It is a military advantage, because it creates better minds, and that means minds with greater powers.
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So bring those shells along.
At this point, Russia fires ten times more large shells than Ukraine. The fascist regime in Moscow has succeeded to augment production, and the idiots facing them, and by these I mean the Europeans, who are busy regulating US Artificial Intelligence and forcing simple folks into Chinese made golf carts they can’t afford nor charge… instead of understanding that they are in a world war…
So Europeans are not producing enough shells for Ukrainians to fire. Instead of being on a war footing, Europe is at peace with its own lunacy: having a state means having an army. No army, no state.
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World wars always start slowly, spiritually speaking. Although fascist Germany attacked the world by surprise on August 1, 1914, the process of militarization of Germany had gone on for decades: Nietzsche decried it very explicitly in the 1880s, and the king of Bavaria, supposedly mad, because he diverted military spending into magnificent monuments, may well have done just as well. Many of the most worthy Germans, such as Einstein, decried the Prussianization of the German school system, etc. The young and deranged Kaiser even fired the ancient Bismarck, as soon as he got to the throne in 1890… because Bismarck was apparently not fascist, and bellicose enough…
The second world war started as early as 1931, when a couple of Japanese colonels set a false flag attack to unleash the Japanese army in a conquest of Manchuria. The world’s reaction to this was to NOT help the Chinese Republic… For the first decade or so (only then did the US cut off the plutocratic US oil!)
This long delay, this decade in which Japan was free to engage with mass murder and invasion, encouraged the maleficent ones to reproduce the heinous behavior of the Imperial Jap military: Mussolini decided to conquer Africa, and later German plutocrats rolled out Hitler who promptly prepared to exterminate as many enemies, real or imagined, as possible…Unpunished, fueled by California, the Japanese military obstinately invaded gigantic China, Hitler and Mussolini helped the US financed tyrant Franco conquer Spain…
At that point, Italy and the USSR were still sitting on a fence, but the weakness of France and Britain convinced them, in light of the US being led by a Deep State of selfish, racist, self-absorbed plutocrats, that they could get away with war. So the USSR attacked Finland and invaded and occupied in June 1940 the three independent Baltic countries – Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania – under the leadership of Stalin and the auspices of the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact that had been signed between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union in August 1939. Within weeks, France and Britain were at war with Stalin, Hirohito, Mussolini, and Hitler. Only France was really exposed… And the USA was smiling from the other side of the ocean, actively inciting other countries to deny shelter to the fleeing Jews…
Nowadays, things are a bit different, in the sense that experts know what happened in WW2: appeasement was another word for alliance with evil. However, the pro-Islamism terrorism attitude of much of the West’s youth is comparable to their pro-Stalin or pro-Hitler peers of the 1930s… Who had a deleterious effect on civilization: the Communists and pro-Nazis, the semi-proverbial Fifth Column, in particular weakened French defense: the French military was afraid to arm French planes lest the heavy guns fall into Communist workers’ hands as the Communists were allied with… Moscow, thus Hitler…The end result was that hundreds of top of the line French fighter planes, equal to the best Nazi planes (in particular the excellent Dewoitine 520), were not engaged in combat on May 10, 1940, and the crucial week which followed… And just that fact may have made the difference between victory and defeat… Between Shoah or no Shoah…
But matters are also similar nowadays in the sense that there are many rogue regimes: Russia, North Korea, Iran… China is sort of sitting on a fence, quite a bit like Mussolini in the later 1930s… Rogues are each others’ fellow souls… Natural allies. North Korean sent millions of shells to Ukraine, through Siberian railways undergoing strange explosions…
Europe may believe that it can escape war, and keep on behaving like a hyper social bimbo, while Russia, Iran, China, India and the USA and even Japan are arming to the teeth for the coming world war…
Amusingly, Britain and France are demolishing Putin’s fleet, with their AI smart missiles, SCALP/Storm Shadow… Fine. Franco-Britannia apparently believes that its nuclear deterrent (about 40% of the US one as far as strategic thermonuclear subs are concerned) is enough to make the Kremlin think twice… So Europe is both very much at war and then not really. 1939-1940 is the last time that sort of hare brained approach was tried... It was called by the French the “Drole de Guerre” (Weird War)… It all changed on May 10, 1940, when the entire Nazi army showed up where no one had expected it…
It goes without saying that stakes are much higher now. World War Two may have killed 100 million over a dozen years (using my own duration 1931-45…). But now one could kill several times that… in twenty minutes…
But then again, with these AI bombs to come…
Patrice Ayme